BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Keon entering the season as the X WR1 position isn’t over confidence, it isn’t an opinion, it’s a confirmed fact and not even up for debate. It’s been confirmed by everyone who matters on the Bills staff.
Your skepticism of him doesn’t change those facts. Now will he be a successful WR1…well that’s yet to be seen and you are free to doubt how good he will or won’t be this year, but there is no doubt Keon is entering the season as the X WR1 position.
And the fact you think Samuel is starting the season as the WR1 is not only completely contradictory to how Brady and Beane have said he will be used, but also not remotely his skill set.
@BarleyNY already spoke to the two different things you are conflating regarding "X" and "WR1".
But it's not a "confirmed fact" in either regard. Beane said Coleman was going to be an X receiver after he was drafted but then signed MVS.........who is basically only of any use as an X. I'd call that hedging a bet.
I think a particular type of amnesia that the offseason has wrought upon some is that being a highly productive WR isn't just about physical traits. The Bills have ALWAYS been an option-route based offense since Allen was drafted. It's a pretty complicated system for a young WR. That's likely to remain mostly the case.
The system requires the WR's to be able to read what the defense is trying to do pre-snap in order to be on the same page as the QB. Coleman is pretty raw. Think of how hard it's been for NFL legacy Kaiir Elam to acclimate. Think of how it took Davante Adams 3 full seasons to learn how to play the position well in the NFL. And he's my ceiling comp for Coleman.
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9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
They are going to move Shakir around and still have Kincaid to contend with and Allen’s threat as a runner. More importantly, while we may not have a Diggs who would frequently draw extra attention, we are much deeper than in previous seasons. It’s going to be difficult for them to squat on the middle because even out of the slot, Shakir, Kincaid, and Samuel can attack all 3 levels of the defense and the boundaries too.
And while you don’t seem to give much thought to Coleman, he will be a difficult cover one on one because of his size regardless of his production. Teams are going to have to cheat some help towards him or he will abuse defenders with his size and body control from his basketball background as well if him and Allen show even some chemistry.
So for me, I don’t have a lot of concern about Shakir and Kincaid getting their territories compressed because Allen will make them pay elsewhere if they do.
I mean, this is all just opinions all around at this stage because so much of this offense is new and we have not seen them as a group, let alone Brady’s true offensive game plan. But just illustrating why I am less concerned about them having the middle compressed and forced into contested catches.
In the slot Shakir had the greatest advantage a short armed WR could ask for. Moving him "around" to positions where he is less likely to get a free release is not a good thing.
Like I said, I see the Bills running 1/3 or more of their offensive snaps with only 2 "WR" on the field.
I also suspect that they will play a lot more condensed formations where basically NOBODY is really outside. Rams-esque. We already know McDermott has long been obsessed with that outside zone run game McVay ran(even though the Bills inevitably always end up being better on gap runs
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They could very well get into week 2 of the season and realize they just don't have the personnel to win matchups outside.
That could be good for Shakir...........or then again maybe they decide they want to get Coleman on the field in tight formations(see what LA Rams did with Puka Nacua and KC did with Rashee Rice) and it costs Shakir snaps and targets.
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17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
How is Samuel “probably WR1 going into the season” when Keon is WR1 and Kincaid is the preseason favorite to lead the team in targets after finishing 2nd in targets last year? You also still have Shakir who is the only WR with any real experience with Allen.The fact that you are so certain that Keon Coleman is going to be WR1 explains your over-confidence.
He was the 8th WR off the board. A second round pick. Very young for this class and relatively unproductive in college.
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6 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:
It’s all an interesting discussion. On the topic of defenders squatting in the middle. I think it should be a concern. But also think we do have enough juice on the outside particularly with Allen’s arm to counter that. Shakir isn’t great on the outside but with Allen’s arm they got Sneeds first (only?) TD allowed of the season. The fun of this season is we haven’t really seen them in the past do the things they must to be successful this year. Part of that is personnel and scheme but it should def still raise concern.
Again, it comes down to likelihoods.
And it's statistically unlikely that the receivers that the Bills have are going to be very good.
That's why they are going to rank somewhere between 27th-30th in the NFL as a unit going into this season.
Maybe the Bills, Brady and Allen suddenly get ahead of the curve at WR for a change and get a lot more out of this group than they are projected to produce.
It's just not likely.
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7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
This is not a fair comparison or projection though. Shakir was 5th in targets last year, how are you going to project his yards out over 17 games and then compare that to “top 2” WR expected production when that is based on being 5th in targets not 2nd in targets?
Shakir had 38 targets only over those 10 games, that projects to just 65 targets on 17 games. You know any “top 2” WR is gonna get more than just 65 targets in a season.
2023 Kincaid was 2nd in targets with 91. In 2022 it was Gabe Davis with 93. That’s an average here of 92 targets. If you use that as your target base for a “top 2” weapon, his stats last year project to 1,250 yards.
Gabe Davis, as WR2, finished 3rd on the team in targets in 2023 with 81 targets. Even if you project his stats at just 81 targets as the third option it would still be 1,100 yards last year.
Yes to the highlighted....... the point is that Diggs' and Shakir's roles were so different that it's hard to draw the apples-to-apples comparison you we're making.
Everything from target share to playing very different positions and the priority that defense's placed on defending them.
I'm more optimistic about Shakir than anyone else in their WR corps. If I HAD to bet he would get 90+ targets and would lead the team in receiving yardage.
But because of the lack of a player on the perimeter who can force defense's to give them extra attention, that could lead to the inside guys like Shakir and Kincaid having their territory compressed by squatting defense's.
I could see a lot more contested catches and a huge yards per catch drop-off for Shakir.
I mean, why are teams going to give Shakir room to create YAC opportunities if they can cover Coleman or MVS with one eye in the backfield?
It was critical for them to significantly improve their boundary WR options. And "on paper" they did not. So we are talking likelihoods here.
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28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Just saw an interesting stat comparison on IG from one of the Bills fan pages…
Said last 10 Bills games:
Shakir - 462 yards
Diggs - 422 yardsShakir - 38 targets
Diggs - 80 targets
Not that we didn’t already know how inefficient Diggs has been, especially back half of the last 2 seasons and postseasons, but that is just a crazy discrepancy to have less yards on more than double the targets.
To be fair, I don’t expect Diggs to be as inefficient all year in Houston as he was his last 10 games here, nor do I expect to see Shakir be as hyper-efficient as last year with a lot more target volume.
But I do suspect Shakir will still be more efficient with his targets here than Diggs was the last 2 seasons for us.
Yeah but the flip is that in Diggs first 9 games he put up 834 yards (93 yards per game).
Basically double the 46 per game that Shakir averaged over the last 10.
46 yards per game(782 yards in a 17 game season) simply isn't going to be the kind of "top 2" receiver production they need.
Shakir played well down the stretch but the Bills passing game also just kinda' sucked after Brady took over.
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2 hours ago, njbuff said:
I think the Samuel signing might be the biggest signing of the Allen era.
Samuel is seriously underrated and if he stays healthy, he can easily post career numbers with Allen throwing to him.
Not that simple......let alone "easy".
He's basically been a WR3 all of his NFL career........including his previous "career" season in Carolina.
Now he's probably WR1 going into the season and getting matched up against the best CB's in the league instead of nickel and dime backs.
HUGE upgrade in competition for him.
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1 minute ago, FireChans said:
This is very funny. So much reductive logic. They won the Super Bowl, so it was a good idea. Oookay.
Yeah that kind of logic used to be the norm around here during the drought.
Remember when Marv took over as Bills GM and chose the strategy of signing free agents that nobody else wanted because the belief was that the Patriots were winning SB's with a cast of nobodies who bonded around their lack of individual identity?
Man we had a whole board full of dopes who were drinking that Kool-aid.
The Chiefs have been trying to have an excellent WR corps.
They have drafted one in the first or second round in each of the last 3 drafts.
And, in truth, they've always had at least 2 receiving targets finish in the top 32 of receiving yards in the NFL in each season of Mahomes career. So contrary to @Thurman#1 hypothesis about being good at WR not mattering..........the fact remains that teams that reach the SB normally have that dynamic of two highly productive receiving targets. In fact, the quality of the second receiving option has been one of the biggest indicators of whether a team will go deep into the playoffs for a very long time now.
The closest the Bills got to a SB, coincidentally, was the only year under Allen when they had 2 receiving targets in the top 32 in receiving yardage.
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18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Wrong, I did not say any such thing.. I started saying "Someone posted these stats"...I am not the source nor did I claim to be. And the answer isn't technically wrong, it was just an incomplete description to specify passing touchdowns which is a flaw in the AI, not the original author.
Actually the only person who wrote a wrong answer was you, with 4 as the actual answer is 6 according to NFL official statistics. 14 was technically correct above, just Statmuse lacked the context of labeling it "passing" touchdowns.
Again.
You simply gotta' know a stat like that is wrong if you follow the NFL.
Let alone if you are a fan of the team and the player.
Just too obvious.
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10 hours ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:
and then this will happen.........
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9 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
Your post rings true.
There are two separate questions here. 1) To what extent did the drops affect the success of the offense? 2) To what extent did the drops affect Allen's numbers for that game?
Your post pertains to the first question. You've made solid points with respect to that first question. But, this is a QB comparison thread. Unlike question 1), question 2) is highly relevant to a QB comparison. 160 yards of drops are absolutely going to murder a QB's numbers, especially his yards per attempt and QB rating. Every last yard of those drops is dragging down Allen's numbers. Allen is swimming across a lake, and that game is the 160 pound ball and chain affixed to his ankle. He averaged 4.something yards per attempt that game, which is really bad. Give him back those 160 yards of drops, and guess what? That really bad 4.something number goes completely out the window, and gets replaced with a much better number.
I repeat: the WRs played badly enough in that game, that Allen's performance cannot be meaningfully evaluated. That game should be dropped from any numbers-based QB comparison.
I very much agree with the general premise that the WR sucked in that game and that it impacts Allen's statistical performance.
But it's not the bulk yards. That's misleading data. They made much of that back and it didn't impact them on the scoreboard the way it makes it sound.
That should be the punctuation of the statistical argument not the opener.
You are correct in the above post, that it's really the efficiency data that gets skewed by the WR poor performance. That's where the argument should go. But all people want to bring up is the bulk yardage and that opens the door to argue against that.
It sort of reminds me of the narratives about "not passing for 300 yards" back in 2015 and 2016 when the Bills were leading the NFL both in big plays and rushing and were scoring well. You can't pass for a TD when you've already run the ball for said TD. But people would argue that those offense's were bad. They were actually the best offense's the Bills had since the early 1990's.
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8 hours ago, Mikey152 said:
His style is definitely unorthodox...it reminds me a bit of Stevie, who also was a basketball guy. Gotta love the ball skills, tho.
When he gets to the 5th break in his route........air just has to tip its hat.
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37 minutes ago, Roundybout said:
Nice
Haven't seen routines like that in such fly headwear since the 80's
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Barnwell ranks the NFL "weapons" groups.
The WR/TE/RB groups for this season:
24. Bills
Yikes.
But that's up from the pff WR-alone rankings (27th).
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19 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:
You “realists” are so entertaining, it’s a rare occurrence when any of you say something in a positive light about the Bills team, and when it happens there is always a but reversal tossed in to negate your lightly positive comment, is what it is, nuthin but luv, GO BILLS!!!
More false narratives. This one courtesy of Donny two-ply.
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18 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
Two potential reasons to throw out the Pats game. 1) You could argue the Pats didn't have a good defense. Except that argument would be wrong, because their defense was ranked #2 in the NFL. 2) Josh Allen received good performances from his OL, his WRs, and his OC. If someone wants to throw out the Pats game out for that reason, fine. But if someone is doing that, that person also needs to throw out any postseason game where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson received good performances from their OL, WRs, and OCs.
There is, however, a playoff game which I believe should be dropped from the stats: the Bills' most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs. In that game, Bills WRs had 160 yards of drops. That's going to mess with a QB's stats, hard core. Like, really pulverize the QB's stats, through no fault of his own. Is there someone reading this thread who believes that 160 yards of drops is a perfectly normal, everyday occurrence? Fine! Let that person step forward, and show me the playoff games where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson had something similar happen to them!
Bottom line: Allen's receivers played badly enough in that game, as to make it impossible to meaningfully evaluate Allen's performance.
I think we have to acknowledge that the drops in that Chiefs game didn't result in 160 less yards. The hyperbole about that has gotten a little out of hand.
For example, the most egregious example was the dropped deep ball to Diggs on the Bills last drive. They proceeded to advance much further than that before two poor passes/well defensed plays lead to the game-losing missed field goal.
They only had 3 drives the entire game that didn't result in a TD or a FG attempt and they didn't all end because of drops. They advanced past much of that loss. There weren't that many more yards actually left on the table from said drops.
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The starting pitching has been the biggest culprit but it should iron itself out.
The rest of the solutions to the Yankees problems are in the minor leagues.
They just don't bring the players up unless it's a last resort(like the Rizzo injury). Ben Rice should have been up last July.
Stanton goes on the IL and instead of bringing up Agustin Ramirez(and his 20 HR and 21% K rate) they install Trent Grisham full time in CF instead.
I've mentioned the triple A arms that should be in the bullpen. Will Warren had the highest "stuff plus" in all of the minors last year and they are trying to give him innings instead of using that nasty arsenal in the MLB bullpen. Maybe he's not meant for starting pitching success like King or Schmidt. His ERA is over 6 as a starter. Just like Delin Betances(6.44) as a starter at Triple A in 2012. The made him a reliever and he was the best reliever in MLB in 2014 and 2015 pitching to a sub 1.50 ERA over 144 appearances.
They just don't ever seem to learn from their own successes.
The Yankees are the worst base running team in MLB at -13 runs and that is almost twice as bad as the 31st team(Angels). They haven't stolen a base in 21 games. Meanwhile, their minor league teams have lead the minors in stolen bases the last two years.
Surround Judge and Soto with the kids and play a more aggressive style.
It comes down to economics........Hal and Cashman refuse to cut losses until it's clear that that player is among the worst in MLB with absolutely no chance of recovery. See Hicks and Donaldson(both now out of baseball).
DP Le Pew is arguably the worst player in MLB right now. No slug, impossibly slow and terrible on the bases and has even become a negative defensive runs guy. He's 35, cut bait. Bring up Jorbit Vivas or Ben Cowles and let Cabrera keep developing. If they get traded........they are going right to the major leagues. They are as ready as they are going to get.
You either serve the youth or you get punished for not doing so.
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9 minutes ago, amprov56 said:
AH the TBD posts we all know and love; sorry your window has closed - ours is still wide open!
I don't pay attention to windows, myself. The concept is a crutch for fans and an excuse for organizations, IMO. But if you don't think it's a conversation for those of you who do talk SB windows? Wrong.
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1 hour ago, BillsVet said:
Their offense will be more predictable post-Diggs/Davis primarily because all of their receivers save for a declining MVS have the same skill-set. It's why throwing to backs isn't the change up that people might be hoping for.
There's almost nothing dynamic about this offense, particularly given who the QB is. And their offensive philosophy is revealed in those skill position players. As in, having a bunch of slot guys who'll play nearer the LOS.
Speaking of Chan, that 2011 team with Fitz and his modest arm was scoring almost 30 ppg through game 7. Their passing offense was timing based, although closer to the LOS given their receivers and Fred was running it well. Jets came to town and disrupted those timing routes by jamming receivers at the LOS and Buffalo went 1-7 thereafter.
Buddy and Chan limited themselves in personnel and could not adapt in-season. At some point this season, Buffalo will revert back to needing Josh to carry them and that's on McBeane for failing to surround him with not only better talent, but a scheme suited to his talents.
Yeah we've seen the personnel limitations get exposed so many times in the last 25 years that it's hard to believe that people still don't realize why you need high end talent.
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If only he'd done this during their championship window.
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1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:
Without Diggs on the field there is an extra defender somewhere. No one on this roster commands bracket coverage besides maybe MVS who I expect sees few snaps per game. Maybe its a spy, maybe its a safety that gets to play center field. In any event, its not a positive development for this offense despite what some posters have claimed.
The Buffalo Bills have shown no ability to consistently get backs involved in the passing game since Chan Gailey was head coach.
When you don't have a difference maker nobody can stop you.
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1 hour ago, Let's Go Buffalo said:
I'm looking forward to seeing his progress from last year to this year, and some of the things he's learned from training with Eric Moulds as well.
Unfortunately, Shakir also sustained a hamstring injury during OTA's in June.
He's "expected" to be ready to go by TC but those often linger and recur so it's something to keep an eye on.
Especially with a team that also has two highly invested in players in Samuel and Coleman who would benefit greatly from getting those free-release slot reps.
As Brett Kollman said in the podcast that was turned into a thread on TSW............the Bills have a whole WR corps of "slot receivers".
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42 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Come on dude...no one said he "WAS KUPP", it is a reference to his STYLE of play. It always cracks me up when someone talks about a players "STYLE" of play and people incorrectly translate that to mean you just called them the exact same player and expect the same results. Literally nobody said he was the next Kupp.
Here is your quote:
"I remember when people completely went bonkers and kept slamming Shakir when I made similar Kupp comparisons when he was a rookie, and again last year, which is not really a surprise since Shakir has since come out and literally stated he studies Kupp and tries to pattern some of his game off his."
Hey, it's your story, bro.
You said you made Kupp comparisons. If people laughed at them maybe you should have clarified that you didn't mean the all-time receiving yardage record kinda' version of Kupp who gains 1947 yards. Can you see where a lack of clarity like that can cause a misunderstanding? No?
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13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I remember when people completely went bonkers and kept slamming Shakir when I made similar Kupp comparisons when he was a rookie, and again last year, which is not really a surprise since Shakir has since come out and literally stated he studies Kupp and tries to pattern some of his game off his.
To the contrary, the truth is that Shakir was sold as potentially the steal of the entire draft.
So let's not hyperbolize about the general opinions of him.
I didn't see anyone going bonkers at his projection as a productive slot receiver who might put up 611 yards in his second season.
But Kupp? He was coming off an NFL record 1947 yard receiving total so it's PROBABLY important to keep in context the point in time if people disagreed.
If people were comparing Keon Coleman to Calvin Johnson would a 611 yard season in his second year prove those comps correct?
I think not.
The big point of contention from the start was how Shakir would do as a boundary WR because of his extremely short arms.
A lot more people on here were trying to compare him to Stefon Diggs than Cooper Kupp.
We still don't know how he will do on the boundary but there isn't much precedent to indicate he will succeed out there.
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
You see I would say that there is an abundance of data that tells us to expect these guys to underwhelm.
Samuel, entering year 8. MVS year 7. Claypool year 5. KJ Hamler year 5. Shakir year 3. It's not like it's some young, unproven(one way or another) group that's 23 years of combined NFL experience.
They have A LOT of history that proves who they are.
As fo players getting a bump in production playing with Allen..........in reality that data isn't very encouraging either. The lesser invested players have all failed to produce. MVS, Claypool and Hamler(who is kept together with popsicle sticks and gum at this point) are all dumpster dives. It's not like they paid good money for productive players like Diggs, Brown and Beasley.