starrymessenger

J. Brown gets first half game ball.

Mason is not beyond reproach IMO . Think a four game suspension would be appropriate.

IMO Knox will break out big time. It prolly won't happen next week but it'll happen before the end of next year. Knox and Singletary encourage me to think that Beane and his boys can identify talent on offence. If so that's great because it's now job 1.

I too doubt that football professionals need Football Outsiders or ESPN to evaluate their QBs (that was sort of my point). If they do they should be looking for other employment. They don't need these performance measurements to form an opinion on where their QB is relative to eg league averages. They independently know, or should know this because they are close to the action and their careers depend upon the accuracy of their projections, especially in evaluating young and inexperienced QBs. But more particularly the relevance of this information as a basis for making crucial decisions is by its very nature unreliable. It may give you the heads up on where your QB is now on a comparative basis but it doesn't tell you what exactly he (and indeed the offence as a whole) needs to do to improve and, more importantly, whether he (and it) can improve. I certainly wouldn't go so far as to say that the relationship of these measurements to the all important assessment is empirically accidental. Duration, with consistency of the results over time, can certainly be indicative, especially when, needless to say, a young QB fails to improve. But, y'know, that's not good enuf when it comes to projections. The past can foretell the future sure. Or not. Will Allen improve and develop into the QB we all want to see? Idk. But I don't need Football Outsiders or ESPN to know what the issue is. The Bills knew what the issue was when they drafted him. Some of the more astute posters on this board (and I don't mean me) also know what the issue is. Some say "accuracy". Some say "mechanics". Some say "anticipation". But all these are merely derivative results. What mainly drives all of them is the ability (or the lack thereof) to process with sufficient speed the live action. Allen's accuracy (including the ability to throw his receivers open) suffers when his mechanics deteriorate. His mechanics deteriorate when he has to overcome with raw physical ability a momentary lag between how the action is developing and his reaction time. But when he is on time (and it does happen with regularity if not with desired frequency) what he is demonstrably able to do places him immediately above the average of starting calibre NFL QBs. He made some throws against the Browns that not all starters can do, or at least not nearly as well. That's what having a sky high ceiling is all about. I don't know that "boom or bust" quite captures it because I think there may be a large performance range between these extremes, but that's what people are getting at when they use these catchwords. It's a big problem and an unanswered question (although in Allen's case it looks like it has been answered to your satisfaction, albeit negatively). We often hear that accuracy is something that a prospect either has or has not, and that it really cannot be developed, and there is certainly evidence for that. What that means is that a rare and not often found chip, processing speed, is missing from Allen's computer and that his is a model that cannot be refurbished to insert it. My own view is that he may, but not necessarily will, improve. Give him a clean pocket and he performs a lot better. He.has improved his short/intermediate range accuracy. Overall he manages his progressions better than he did last year. I hope to see continued improvement. If he (and the O as a whole) can get there the payoff will be well worth the growing pains. I'm not a fanboy and I'm not making excuses for him (or Darnold) but Lamar was lucky to land with Harbaugh, Roman and a much better complement of skill position players and O-line, and a much more cohesive unit overall. In Allen's draft year I actually had Lamar graded ahead of him (I pat myself on the back). I also preferred Rosen (I kick myself in the butt). But I was, and remain, enthusiastic about our QB, fully realizing that he may not develop the way we would like. I thought, and I continue to think, that he fully justified his draft position (I thought Lamar almost faling out of the first round was ridiculous - clearly Ozzie knew better when he made sure he got that fifth year option). I agree that the Bills should draft a developmental QB if they see one they like. There should always be one that the team has some commitment to on the PS. If you feel you need to you carry three. Gardner is a hoot and he looks like he can play.

I'm not an expert by any means, but I think that DVOA, DYAR, QBR as statistical performance measures are not a basis for prudent and informed decision making by NFL teams and indeed they don't serve that purpose (though of course they may more or less in a given case align with the team's QB evaluation). They are generalized/ comparative references that can provide some insight into how well (or not) a QB is playing over the relevant period, though without direct correlation to important inputs, for example for supporting player and coaching talent. According to these measurements in 2019 Mayfield, Darnold and Allen are all pretty bad. Maybe all three teams should move on from their young QBs. And some pretty good QBs, or at least QBs having had some success, are similarly bad in one or more of these statistical catagories. So QB evaluation is a lot more complicated than that. So Allen didn't do well enuf for you in beating man coverage (I assume you might be more forgiving if you felt the opposition was better at running a man scheme). So the Bills should cut their losses. In New Jersey many Jets fans are convinced that Darnold cannot read a defence to save his life and should be discarded. To me Darnold and Allen are talented prospects who have been drafted by teams that are for perhaps different reasons somewhat dysfunctional on the offensive side of the ball. They have also been thrown directly into the action without the grooming benefits that Garropolo or Rodgers were able to enjoy. So to me you have to show patience and absorb the downside consequences in the meantime. My take is that there is a reasonable chance that Allen (and Darnold) will improve as I hope and expect his teammates and coaches will improve.

The fact that Cleveland's pass D can be vulnerable (given the injuries in their secondary) doesn't alter the fact that all other things being equal opposing teams have chosen primarily to exploit their run D. There is a reason for this. They are ranked 7th in pass D and 27th against the run. And to assume that there is no alternative but to pass against a stacked box is of course incorrect. If eight in the box was enuf to undo a run heavy offence Roman would be out of a job and Lamar would be selling insurance. Bill B stacked the box against the Ravens. He even went to a nine man front on occasion. Lamar ran for about 70 yards. Ingram ran for a buck and a half. And stacking the box exposes the D to big plays in the run game if the ball carrier gets to the second level. Typically there is only one safety left upfield. We see Lamar exploit this occasionally on long runs. Without getting into detail suffice it to say that are a number of strategies and techniques available to run heavy teams to beat a loaded front. So although stacking the box also gives an offence the possibility of using eg play action and other strategies in the passing game it does not in every case require it, and especially not exclusively. So running a back like Singletary into a stacked box can be a solution, or at least a partial solution. But I suspect you know this and in any case that's not your point. Your point is that because the Bills tried to pass and Josh didn't do to the Browns what Garropolo or Rodgers with their supporting cast would have done we need to move on from him. Well Josh played reasonably well. He made some truly big boy throws. He made some pre-snap misreads as well no doubt. He remains a talented prospect who has shown some progression in areas of his game that needed to improve. Sam Darnold was publicly humiliated by Bill B. He was completely mystified by the Pats blitz packages. Belichick would never have employed this strategy against say Rodgers or Brees. Should the Jets move on from Darnold?

I don't think making greater use of Singletary means you've given up on Josh. A good back is a young QBs best friend. I don't think that at 5'7" and 200 lbs there is any risk of shortening his career if he gets 20+ touches per in the Brown's game. He was the centrepiece, or motor, of his offence in college. Helping to carry an offence is what he does. So far I've seen nothing that suggests he is unable to transition in this role as a pro. Let one of the leagues worst run Ds prove that they can shut him down before you abandon the run entirely. Brown's didn't do that (they didn't have to). More likely the Patriots could. Browns are not the Pats. Situational awareness.

They don't call him motor for nothin.

Yeah, and like everybody else he wasn't doing much in the passing game.

I get the point that Browns were staking the box. 5+ ypc isn't bad against a loaded front. Guess Devin is pretty good.

Not trying to be a malcontent and so really just daydreaming but Gordon was money for nothing and it would also have been nice to have landed Sanders. Gordon, Sanders, Brown, Beasly, that's potentially a receiving corps that might have benefitted Allen and transformed the offence. Add in more balanced offensive game plans and improved play calls and we could well have been in a better place heading into the remaining schedule. I understand that it's never that simple. They (Gordon, Sanders) would have to absorb the playbook quickly (though as vets they might soon have been up to speed) and of course there could be a risk of an uneven transition in the clubhouse and on the field but the countervailing argument would be that you rarely get an opportunity in a playoff run to completely upgrade your talent on one side of the ball. And except for Brown and Beasly the WR group will probably wind up being completely overhauled anyway. So I guess the question is whether we are too conservative. Competitive teams seem to go out and recruit people aggressively.

Shoulda had both IMO

Exactly.

Because he has great speed, the defending CB will often be trailing even if in relatively tight coverage when Brown is running certain sideline routes. The DB will typically have his back to the QB in press man coverage. John Brown is a polished professional receiver who, amongst other things, tracks the ball very well. When completing the reception he can modify his timing to effectively box out while often, though not always, "jumping" over the defender. I've seen him do it over the years with different QBs. It's part of his skillset that derives from his threat as a speedster and the other receiver attributes that he has. I don't think I would hesitate to target him on back shoulder throws. I didn't mean to suggest that as a stationary target he was ever going to out high point Alshon Jeffery or Mike Evans. I agree he's not that guy.

I won't criticize Wallace for the Landry TD. It was a very good pass and Landry, who has no problems tracking a ball in the air, made a great adjustment and flashed excellent hands. Wallace was in tight coverage and nearly got his hand on the ball. Wallace is not a CB2 IMO. He is limited physically but he's a smart player who absolutely belongs on an NFL roster. Bills (McD I suspect) seem to have a penchant for these types of undrafted or late round smart, system friendly but measurables lacking DBs, J. Johnson is another. They can be good value. There is a reason Tre gives Beckham Jr. a big cushion. It's because he's often 1 on 1 against the opposition's best receiver and without help over the top he could very well have his a$$ handed to him and he knows it. Tre is an outstanding young corner and really a top shelf technician, but like almost all good players he has his kryptonite. A burner can beat him on go routes. Playing off a guy like BJ is probably really just part of his being a good technician. He knows his own strengths and weaknesses.

Yeah. He's incredible. Was fun seeing him outperform by far the 100M dollar man (something tells me Vikes are going to have to pony up with some cash sooner rather than later). I would say "too late in the game".

Well he may not have the high pointer physical profile, but like I said I've seen him make those plays (esp back shoulder snags) enuf to say it can be considered part of his receiver repertoire IMO. I certainly see no reason to avoid making those throws to him.

I don't think he has drafted badly. With hindsight it is easy to criticize any GM for what can appear to be squandered opportunities. Strategically he seems to have a penchant for boom/bust athletic prototypes. We'll see how it works out. To me the next draft/FA will go a long way in establishing his legacy in Buffalo. He needs, as always, to strengthen the lines, but he will now have to prove his ability to identify skill position players. I'll be looking to see whether he can do this using mid to late round picks. Just about anybody can scoop an elite WR prospect if you burn a extra first round pick to move up.

Maybe I've got it wrong, but I thought he was also suggesting that he had no confidence in Brown as a receiver of jump balls and back shoulder throws (and just not because he thinksJosh is having problems connecting). If so, with this I would disagree. With respect to the particular play call I do agree it was probably situationally inappropriate. I think some other posters have commented on the difficulties Josh is experiencing with decision making/ pre snap reads.

The league in general, and the wise heads in particular (I'm looking at you Bill) got it completely wrong. I'm sorry to have to say it but there may even have been some racial animus/stereotyping going on. In their defence however I think it's more than fair to say that Lamar did not fit the profile of the type of young QB that we had seen develop to succeed for decades. What they missed is that he breaks the mould. Polian now acknowledges that he got it wrong. Thing is, there were also a number of analysts who got it right. From what I garnered from some podcasts and analyst film breakdown/studies, as well as from what tape I was myself able to access from the Internet, it was obvious that Jackson was not only electrifying as a runner, but had plenty of potential to develop as a passer as well. He had the arm strength, field vision, anticipation and, yes, also the accuracy you like to see. He was a better passer at Louisville than Josh was at Wyo. He too could be inconsistent but his problems were in the nature of (probably) correctable mechanics. While Raven's pairing him with Roman was a marriage made in heaven, his future is tied more to his continuing development as a passer. He will always be a threat to run and opposing DCs will always have to deal with it but I'm of the view that too much read option and designed runs will shorten his career, however good he is at avoiding impactful hits. When he took over from Flacco last year he was for sure a run first if not run only QB. This was to be expected. With less than half a season behind him in 2019 we now see the passing game beginning to open up and that's a progression that I expect will continue. A note I find of interest: there are very few NFL QBs that can drop a dime falling off their back foot - Rodgers can do it, Mahomes can do it, and I saw Jackson do it for a thirty yard score earlier this year. Dude looks to become a really good QB, if he's not already.

And I saw Brown do it (back shoulder grabs) on several occasions for big/and or scoring plays with Flacco in Baltimore. Don't know what he's talking about. Or maybe he doesn't.

Well I thought it was a good trade for Pitt. First for first, except the one they got had already shown he could play, and at a premium position.

You actually need both in equal measure.

In the game I watched I saw some excellent throws, throws that I'm not sure all starting calibre NFL QBs can make. I also saw today, as I have in the past, a number of passes to open receivers that, while catchable, had placement that was bad enuf to unnecessarily increase the degree of difficulty, resulting in incompletions and lost YAC opportunities. And as for his long ball, I really don't know what is going on there. But I think there is a dearth of QB friendly throws that could also be productive with too much weight being placed on Allen's shoulders to execute an aggressive pass happy attack. Neither Allen nor his complement of skill position players are capable of that right now. This is not the greatest show on turf. Allen may never make it but Daboll and McD are not doing him any favours.

Our WR corps is admittedly not the strongest and could certainly do with an upgrade. Now that Beane and Coach have passed on a couple of players who could have helped raise the general level (Gordon, Sanders) we will, I assume, have to wait until the draft. But even a top shelf receiver would probably make little difference in this offence right now and there's no doubt in my mind that much better use could be made of the weapons we've already got. I think the Bills get pretty much the best out of their players on D. Much less than the best on O. IMO some of that is on Allen but it's too early to single him out. Game planning and play calling are the more likely culprits.