I think Campbell's decision to onside kick was a sound one. What is the reasonably to be expected outcome of that play? It's that the onside kick will fail (having a 7% success rate statistically) and that the Bills take possession around the Lions 45 yard line (as was the result following the second onside kick attempt). If they just kickoff, the Bills take possession on their own 30. That's a 25 yards difference. How long do you think it would take Josh Allen and that O to make up 25 yards? Campbell is no fool. To the contrary he knew by then exactly what he was up against and what his D was capable of in the circumstances. Retaining or obtaining possession by any means was crucial to his chances of succeeding imo. I think he understood that his chances were in any event slight.