starrymessenger

I like Rosen too. A lot. We talk about Allen's high ceiling. I think Rosen will get better too. I think the 5 guys taken in the first all could transition as solid starters. I think it was a very good class. IMO when he's on his game Allen is doing more and doing better than any of the other really good prospects.

If by analytics we mean stats then you have to disregard them in evaluating Alan. His college stat sheet is bad, except maybe for rushing totals (still much less than Cam's). So it's not just completion percentage. It's the same for every statistical measure. Stats wise he's maybe a fourth round pick. But Allen is legit as an early first rounder. So what gives? What gives is that for all the bad tape (and bad stats) there is as much tape of Allen executing perfectly and when he executes perfectly he is able to get the most out of his physical skill set, which makes him stand out like an adult amongst children. Other athletically gifted prospects with big arms were never as impressive as Allen when he's on his game and doing things the right way. No EJ, Boller, Locker, Losman etc...have tape as impressive as Allen has. And there is enuf of it to reliably conclude that his demonstrated ability is not an accident. After even only a few preseason appearances, we have now all seen Allen make a couple of plays that we know only a handful of the best NFL starters are capable of. Add to that his intelligence, work ethic, coachability and apparent personality/leadership skills and one can easily understand why he would have been completely credible as the 1st pick overall. For sure he is an anomaly but folks can be forgiven for thinking that that he may just be a generational talent. As Jahlen Ramsey has correctly pointed out, Allen's performances against better opposition were worse than against weaker teams. Not making excuses for him but that's sort of what you might expect. And I'm inclined to think that this has something to do with the increased gap between the relative quality of the teams. Allen is clearly a guy who takes it all upon himself and I can see him trying to make up for the differences in skill levels for all offensive position groups. In the pros he will be going against defenders and DCs the likes of which he has never seen, but he will also be playing with much more accomplished teammates (and it looks like he's got a good OC). Even if the Bills may occasionally be overmatched the gap will not be as pronounced as that between his 2017 WYO team and Iowa and he will always benefit from having much more talented options than he had in college. Logically (or analytically) a guy who looked bad against Iowa should look that much worse against a good NFL defence. But I don't think that will happen. I think he will look better, possibly a lot better.

I really hope Ritchie can get the help he needs, but I get the feeling that it's too late. Hope I'm wrong about that.

JMO but I think Baker will be starting sooner rather than later this year. I remember coach Jackson in Oakland when he had Trent Edwards. After Trent, true to form, threw a four yard out on third and long Hue blew a gasket, went on a rant and publicly excoriated him on the sidelines. Unless Tyrod is able to move that offence down the field given the weapons he has to work with an irresistable tsunami of negative sentiment will sweep Tyrod off the field and onto the bench.

Aka "the drought", so not saying much.

Nobody hates Tyrod. But some folks know him for what he is. And some don't.

Tyrod's a QB impersonator. But at least he is really good at that. Fooled Hue Jackson (though that's apparently easy to do). Also was LMAO at Landry looking shocked at no PI on one uncatchable ball after another. Really can't fathom the network game crews. Can they really be that clueless or is everything scripted beforehand. I guess Romo never got the message. Like that guy.

By the time we are ready to compete Edmunds/Mack would make for a devastating combo. I would absolutely do next year's first (and a player - Hughes, whose pushing 30) and give Khalil 20 bucks a year. Or we could just draft Bosa.

Lock him up !!!

I don't put much stock in completion percentage. It is to a significant extent actually a team stat more than a measure of QB efficiency. Thing is, JA's stat sheet from his 2017 season is bad disregarding completion percentage. Yards per completion (low) and drop percentage (also low compared with the other first round QBs) are not good. He only threw one pass over forty yards in 2017. Fully 30 % of his throws travelled 5 or fewer yards from the line of scrimmage (and the short game was something he wasn't especially good at). So for a guy with huge arm he didn't exactly use it to stretch the field. There are three different JAs based on his 2017 tape: A guy who looks so good that he seems to be playing in a different dimension than other players, a guy who is mediocre, and a guy who is flat out atrocious. And each of the three Josh's is well represented. Given his extraordinary physical abilities, his intelligence, work ethic, personality I have always been inclined to throw out the entirety of his college stat sheet. Mason Rudolph's stats are much better than Allen's and obviously no one was ever going to draft Rudolph ahead of him. IMO he is worth the big bet that the Bills made in drafting him where they did. And what we've seen in preseason so far is very encouraging. The front end of the Bills schedule is pretty brutal. I wouldn't start him right away. But if he plays very well next Sunday I think McD's hand will be forced. Let's see how he makes out against Atkins (who has also looked great in preseason).

Yeah. The thing that most boggles my mind is the thought that opposing Ds may at all times have to defend every patch of grass on the field. If surrounded by the right playmakers Allen would be a threat to beat you on any down and from any part of the field.

Im very high on Allen, and why not. His arm strength and athleticism are nothing short of elite. He's also bright, dedicated and hardworking. And he appears to have a great personality. I'm on record as saying all along that he fully justified a high first round selection regardless of his small school pedigree and (let's say) uneven 2017 tape. He could have reasonably gone # 1 overall. There is nothing defeatist about my post. It's more like "protectionist" because I actually realize how valuable an asset he is to the Bills and the fanbase. I want the Bills to manage him in the way that gives him the best chance to succeed. I agree that he has earned the start in game 3. If Peterman is destined to start against the Ravens, his playing with the 2s and 3s is not going to make a big difference to what he brings to the table. Not only has Allen earned it but his progression is well served IMO if he gets to start against the opposing 1s.

Its really not about how much better Farve, Bledsoe and Alex Smith are than Peterman. It's really only about whether Allen is ready to start without risking his continued development. It is probably true that had AR and TB been behind lesser QBs they may well have seen the field sooner than they did. Nevertheless it is also true that AR's mechanics were completely overhauled while he was backing up Favre and that process took three years. When the great AR falls back into his bad tendencies even he underperforms. A couple of years ago you will recall his bad stretch of 5 games or so that just about torpedoed the Packers season. He had to go back with his QB coach and iron out the kinks before getting back on track. Mahomes did not sit out a year because Alex Smith was the future. He sat out because he was deemed not ready to start due to mechanical, principally footwork related issues. The Chiefs were lucky to have Smith but it was clear from the get go that he was only a placeholder. Allen has undoubtedly shown very encouraging signs in his preseason appearances so far that he understands what he has to do to get better. He has played more within himself and with greater discipline and generally avoiding poor decisions. But he hasn't reinvented himself yet. Threading the needle to Ray Ray with a bullet is extremely impressive no doubt, but this sort of throw is something that he has always done with fairly regular frequency, and indeed partly explains why many talent evaluators love him (and clearly with justification, as far as that goes). The remaining question is can he scale back on the velocity of his throws when it comes to the many plays where elite arm strength is not only not required but is to be avoided? I find it hard to believe that in the few months since the draft he has been able to accomplish the difficult transition from power thrower to polished passer. The pass he threw rolling out to his right and falling backwards off his back foot that Lee caught is again extremely impressive as an example of pure unadulterated arm strength. Everybody was jaw dropped of course. But that is exactly the sort of thing that you don't want him to do in the NFL. Against top tier defenders that is much more likely to result in a turnover than a completion. All day and twice on Sundays. Not only did AR, TB and Mahomes get some time (and admittedly maybe more than was needed in AR's case) but they also got to start behind much better O-lines and better Os overall with more proven weapons than Allen will have. With our O-line problems I don't feel good about him going against three of the best front sevens in the game right off the bat. Those teams have good secondaries as well. IMO it's asking too much of the rook. For sure you learn by actually playing but not when the odds are totally stacked against you. Allen gives every indication of making progress and his continued development should remain the focus. Frankly I hope the Bills wait on him, but who knows. They haven't even given him a proper QB coach.

I know. It means absolutely nothing because of the differences between what Wentz was asked to do, and did, and what Allen's responsibilities were. If you think Allen is as polished and pro ready as Wentz was you are mistaken. Some of the differences are accounted for by the fact that Wentz, though also playing for a small school, had a much better team than Allen had, especially the 2017 WYO team. The difference in talent between Mac and Nate on the one hand and Allen on the other is impossible to miss. Allen dwarfs them in terms of physical ability, that's readily apparent. Allen may well also give you the best chance of winning in the short term but becoming a franchise player is a longer term proposition. Thats entirely possible. But a few months is almost certainly not long enuf to properly prepare him. It took AR three years. Mahomes got a year.

JMO but I have concerns about JA starting at this time in the regular season. I have a hard time believing that he has cleaned up the problems that were so evident in his college tape in the few months since he was drafted. It took AR three years to work out the kinks in his game - and they were fewer and less serious than Allen's. More recently a more accurate passer (under the tutelage of Andy Reid no less), P. Mahomes, was given a year to straighten out his footwork. JA brings as much physical ability to the table as Cam Newton or Andrew Luck. But he is a lot less polished than they were when they came into the league. JA is not Carson Wentz either. Wentz was fully in control of a pro style offence. Allen's offence may have featured pro style sets, but it's not just lining up under centre that makes it a pro offence. Unlike Wentz, Allen was given simplified half field read responsibilities where he threw to his receivers if and when they were open not unlike in a typical college spread system. He did not run a true pro style timing offence. My concern is not that starting him early will destroy his confidence. He may at this time actually have too much of that. My concern is that starting him now behind a porous line will make it much more difficult for the coaches to work on correcting his flaws and bad tendencies, even if he gives the team the best chance of winning in the short term. Unless that stuff gets cleaned up he will never become franchise transforming player we all want him to be. My guess is that the braintrust will resist fan and media pressure to start him right away, meaning that we are likely to see Peterman. With Mac out for what is now an indeterminate period the Bills are in a really tough spot as their options have been considerably limited.

Allen has also previously broken his collarbone.

Not the way teams usually go about things in preseason, but maybe the Bills now give JA the majority of first team reps and start him next week. If he does well they install him as starter for the season opener. If he struggles they start Peterman. JA is clearly the future and maybe the future is now but I'm a little nervous about throwing him to the wolves immediately. I'm not worried about his losing his confidence. He looks to be as strong mentally as he is physically. That said I might feel better if he got to start acclimating to the pro environment on the sidelines for a few games anyway. I think Peterman may have the wherewithal to develop into a good long term backup for the Bills. When it comes to arm strength I'm not that concerned about his long ball. The PI TD that he threw to Streater in game 1 travelled 40 yards in the air and was spot on target. I think he can probably be effective within a range of 50 yards. That's not JA or Mahomes range but it may stretch the field just enuf. I am more concerned about velocity on throws in the intermediate range. I suspect that he can throw a decent out to his left but has difficulting making that throw at the NFL level to his right. As a right handed QB this suggests to me that the problem may be partly mechanical. You can maybe get away with less than ideal mechanics if you have Allen's arm, but Peterman does not have that luxury (and there is WYO tape of Allen getting pick sixed on a shallow out as well, the problem there being misreading coverage more than lack of arm strength). Peterman not only has good chemistry with our # 1 but, for those who remember his Senior Bowl, with Zay as well. I think he has the smarts and the basic skill set to execute Daboll's offence competently. So I would not be against him getting the start against the Ravens. But if Allen does well against the 1s in practice and in game 3 it will be difficult to deny him the start, as he will have earned it.

It's in the past. A long football time ago.

I didn't see him winning that horse race either but I would have liked for him to have a fair shot. I don't think he got that tonight. Oh well, life ain't fair. It just is.

Not Mac's day I guess. Ball falls through kB's mitts to get started. Then he gets killed behind a completely overmatched O line. Sad.

Two minute drill.

Everything happens so much faster.

I don't know how many Superbowls he's going to win (if any). Some great QBs never did, as we all know. Nothing is guaranteed, but what I feel comfortable saying is that there is a palpable possibility that the Bills may have landed nothing less than a generational talent at the all important position. The only other rook I have felt that way about is Andrew Luck.

That's a play/throw that makes me uneasy because I don't see it translating well at all at the NFL level. He should throw it away rather than risk the turnover. But I will say this. He was under similar pressure a lot at WYO and I have seen him make the exact same play/throw in his college game tape, at least once for a TD and another time for a sizeable gain. So it's not a fluke. I find it incredible that he can manage the outcome on a throw like that enuf to make it a risk worth taking but hey maybe he can. His arm talent is simply amazing, we all know. If his field vision and ball placement can be so good as to permit that kind of throw to result in completions then his talent goes way beyond simple arm strength (whether he should be making that throw or not). In other words it strongly suggests that he is not just another Kyle Boller.

Peterman had a good, even maybe very good, showing against the Panthers. But it wasn't perfect. He's generally accurate and can throw with anticipation, but he wasn't pinpoint accurate. His first throw, the slant to Cadet, was behind the receiver. It resulted in a PI call and a first down but a pass like that can easily be picked off by a good slot corner. The pick on the throw to Ivory was also slightly behind the receiver. Sure Ivory should still have made the play but it's worth mentioning that both the Cadet and Ivory throws were on slants left to right, the only ones of that kind attempted, and both were slightly off target (the Cadet throw more than the one to Ivory). Peterman's best throw was the TD pass to Streater. It was so perfectly placed that without the push off the receiver would have been in great position to beat the corner. Thing to note about that pass is that it was 40 yards in the air and Peterman did not throw his arm out making it. In other words you could probably add another 10 yards or so if you were looking to fix Peterman's long ball range. A well placed 50 yard pass is pretty good, and certainly good enuf to say that Peterman can probably throw a good deep ball. Where I think we may like to see more zip on his throws is in the intermediate range, underneath patterns, outs and curls. He has to keep DBs from comfortably sitting on his throws with the certain knowledge that the play will remain in front of them with plenty of time to pick or immediately wrap up the receiver. If he can do those things even moderately well, and keep his composure in the pocket, he probably has a future in this league. If he continues to show well in preseason I would not be surprised if the Bills looked to move AJM. It would certainly be a refreshing change to have a talented starter (Allen) backup up by a capable backup both on rookie deals.