starrymessenger

I don't put much stock in completion percentage. It is to a significant extent actually a team stat more than a measure of QB efficiency. Thing is, JA's stat sheet from his 2017 season is bad disregarding completion percentage. Yards per completion (low) and drop percentage (also low compared with the other first round QBs) are not good. He only threw one pass over forty yards in 2017. Fully 30 % of his throws travelled 5 or fewer yards from the line of scrimmage (and the short game was something he wasn't especially good at). So for a guy with huge arm he didn't exactly use it to stretch the field. There are three different JAs based on his 2017 tape: A guy who looks so good that he seems to be playing in a different dimension than other players, a guy who is mediocre, and a guy who is flat out atrocious. And each of the three Josh's is well represented. Given his extraordinary physical abilities, his intelligence, work ethic, personality I have always been inclined to throw out the entirety of his college stat sheet. Mason Rudolph's stats are much better than Allen's and obviously no one was ever going to draft Rudolph ahead of him. IMO he is worth the big bet that the Bills made in drafting him where they did. And what we've seen in preseason so far is very encouraging. The front end of the Bills schedule is pretty brutal. I wouldn't start him right away. But if he plays very well next Sunday I think McD's hand will be forced. Let's see how he makes out against Atkins (who has also looked great in preseason).

Yeah. The thing that most boggles my mind is the thought that opposing Ds may at all times have to defend every patch of grass on the field. If surrounded by the right playmakers Allen would be a threat to beat you on any down and from any part of the field.

Im very high on Allen, and why not. His arm strength and athleticism are nothing short of elite. He's also bright, dedicated and hardworking. And he appears to have a great personality. I'm on record as saying all along that he fully justified a high first round selection regardless of his small school pedigree and (let's say) uneven 2017 tape. He could have reasonably gone # 1 overall. There is nothing defeatist about my post. It's more like "protectionist" because I actually realize how valuable an asset he is to the Bills and the fanbase. I want the Bills to manage him in the way that gives him the best chance to succeed. I agree that he has earned the start in game 3. If Peterman is destined to start against the Ravens, his playing with the 2s and 3s is not going to make a big difference to what he brings to the table. Not only has Allen earned it but his progression is well served IMO if he gets to start against the opposing 1s.

Its really not about how much better Farve, Bledsoe and Alex Smith are than Peterman. It's really only about whether Allen is ready to start without risking his continued development. It is probably true that had AR and TB been behind lesser QBs they may well have seen the field sooner than they did. Nevertheless it is also true that AR's mechanics were completely overhauled while he was backing up Favre and that process took three years. When the great AR falls back into his bad tendencies even he underperforms. A couple of years ago you will recall his bad stretch of 5 games or so that just about torpedoed the Packers season. He had to go back with his QB coach and iron out the kinks before getting back on track. Mahomes did not sit out a year because Alex Smith was the future. He sat out because he was deemed not ready to start due to mechanical, principally footwork related issues. The Chiefs were lucky to have Smith but it was clear from the get go that he was only a placeholder. Allen has undoubtedly shown very encouraging signs in his preseason appearances so far that he understands what he has to do to get better. He has played more within himself and with greater discipline and generally avoiding poor decisions. But he hasn't reinvented himself yet. Threading the needle to Ray Ray with a bullet is extremely impressive no doubt, but this sort of throw is something that he has always done with fairly regular frequency, and indeed partly explains why many talent evaluators love him (and clearly with justification, as far as that goes). The remaining question is can he scale back on the velocity of his throws when it comes to the many plays where elite arm strength is not only not required but is to be avoided? I find it hard to believe that in the few months since the draft he has been able to accomplish the difficult transition from power thrower to polished passer. The pass he threw rolling out to his right and falling backwards off his back foot that Lee caught is again extremely impressive as an example of pure unadulterated arm strength. Everybody was jaw dropped of course. But that is exactly the sort of thing that you don't want him to do in the NFL. Against top tier defenders that is much more likely to result in a turnover than a completion. All day and twice on Sundays. Not only did AR, TB and Mahomes get some time (and admittedly maybe more than was needed in AR's case) but they also got to start behind much better O-lines and better Os overall with more proven weapons than Allen will have. With our O-line problems I don't feel good about him going against three of the best front sevens in the game right off the bat. Those teams have good secondaries as well. IMO it's asking too much of the rook. For sure you learn by actually playing but not when the odds are totally stacked against you. Allen gives every indication of making progress and his continued development should remain the focus. Frankly I hope the Bills wait on him, but who knows. They haven't even given him a proper QB coach.

I know. It means absolutely nothing because of the differences between what Wentz was asked to do, and did, and what Allen's responsibilities were. If you think Allen is as polished and pro ready as Wentz was you are mistaken. Some of the differences are accounted for by the fact that Wentz, though also playing for a small school, had a much better team than Allen had, especially the 2017 WYO team. The difference in talent between Mac and Nate on the one hand and Allen on the other is impossible to miss. Allen dwarfs them in terms of physical ability, that's readily apparent. Allen may well also give you the best chance of winning in the short term but becoming a franchise player is a longer term proposition. Thats entirely possible. But a few months is almost certainly not long enuf to properly prepare him. It took AR three years. Mahomes got a year.

JMO but I have concerns about JA starting at this time in the regular season. I have a hard time believing that he has cleaned up the problems that were so evident in his college tape in the few months since he was drafted. It took AR three years to work out the kinks in his game - and they were fewer and less serious than Allen's. More recently a more accurate passer (under the tutelage of Andy Reid no less), P. Mahomes, was given a year to straighten out his footwork. JA brings as much physical ability to the table as Cam Newton or Andrew Luck. But he is a lot less polished than they were when they came into the league. JA is not Carson Wentz either. Wentz was fully in control of a pro style offence. Allen's offence may have featured pro style sets, but it's not just lining up under centre that makes it a pro offence. Unlike Wentz, Allen was given simplified half field read responsibilities where he threw to his receivers if and when they were open not unlike in a typical college spread system. He did not run a true pro style timing offence. My concern is not that starting him early will destroy his confidence. He may at this time actually have too much of that. My concern is that starting him now behind a porous line will make it much more difficult for the coaches to work on correcting his flaws and bad tendencies, even if he gives the team the best chance of winning in the short term. Unless that stuff gets cleaned up he will never become franchise transforming player we all want him to be. My guess is that the braintrust will resist fan and media pressure to start him right away, meaning that we are likely to see Peterman. With Mac out for what is now an indeterminate period the Bills are in a really tough spot as their options have been considerably limited.

Allen has also previously broken his collarbone.

Not the way teams usually go about things in preseason, but maybe the Bills now give JA the majority of first team reps and start him next week. If he does well they install him as starter for the season opener. If he struggles they start Peterman. JA is clearly the future and maybe the future is now but I'm a little nervous about throwing him to the wolves immediately. I'm not worried about his losing his confidence. He looks to be as strong mentally as he is physically. That said I might feel better if he got to start acclimating to the pro environment on the sidelines for a few games anyway. I think Peterman may have the wherewithal to develop into a good long term backup for the Bills. When it comes to arm strength I'm not that concerned about his long ball. The PI TD that he threw to Streater in game 1 travelled 40 yards in the air and was spot on target. I think he can probably be effective within a range of 50 yards. That's not JA or Mahomes range but it may stretch the field just enuf. I am more concerned about velocity on throws in the intermediate range. I suspect that he can throw a decent out to his left but has difficulting making that throw at the NFL level to his right. As a right handed QB this suggests to me that the problem may be partly mechanical. You can maybe get away with less than ideal mechanics if you have Allen's arm, but Peterman does not have that luxury (and there is WYO tape of Allen getting pick sixed on a shallow out as well, the problem there being misreading coverage more than lack of arm strength). Peterman not only has good chemistry with our # 1 but, for those who remember his Senior Bowl, with Zay as well. I think he has the smarts and the basic skill set to execute Daboll's offence competently. So I would not be against him getting the start against the Ravens. But if Allen does well against the 1s in practice and in game 3 it will be difficult to deny him the start, as he will have earned it.

It's in the past. A long football time ago.

I didn't see him winning that horse race either but I would have liked for him to have a fair shot. I don't think he got that tonight. Oh well, life ain't fair. It just is.

Not Mac's day I guess. Ball falls through kB's mitts to get started. Then he gets killed behind a completely overmatched O line. Sad.

Two minute drill.

Everything happens so much faster.

I don't know how many Superbowls he's going to win (if any). Some great QBs never did, as we all know. Nothing is guaranteed, but what I feel comfortable saying is that there is a palpable possibility that the Bills may have landed nothing less than a generational talent at the all important position. The only other rook I have felt that way about is Andrew Luck.

That's a play/throw that makes me uneasy because I don't see it translating well at all at the NFL level. He should throw it away rather than risk the turnover. But I will say this. He was under similar pressure a lot at WYO and I have seen him make the exact same play/throw in his college game tape, at least once for a TD and another time for a sizeable gain. So it's not a fluke. I find it incredible that he can manage the outcome on a throw like that enuf to make it a risk worth taking but hey maybe he can. His arm talent is simply amazing, we all know. If his field vision and ball placement can be so good as to permit that kind of throw to result in completions then his talent goes way beyond simple arm strength (whether he should be making that throw or not). In other words it strongly suggests that he is not just another Kyle Boller.

Peterman had a good, even maybe very good, showing against the Panthers. But it wasn't perfect. He's generally accurate and can throw with anticipation, but he wasn't pinpoint accurate. His first throw, the slant to Cadet, was behind the receiver. It resulted in a PI call and a first down but a pass like that can easily be picked off by a good slot corner. The pick on the throw to Ivory was also slightly behind the receiver. Sure Ivory should still have made the play but it's worth mentioning that both the Cadet and Ivory throws were on slants left to right, the only ones of that kind attempted, and both were slightly off target (the Cadet throw more than the one to Ivory). Peterman's best throw was the TD pass to Streater. It was so perfectly placed that without the push off the receiver would have been in great position to beat the corner. Thing to note about that pass is that it was 40 yards in the air and Peterman did not throw his arm out making it. In other words you could probably add another 10 yards or so if you were looking to fix Peterman's long ball range. A well placed 50 yard pass is pretty good, and certainly good enuf to say that Peterman can probably throw a good deep ball. Where I think we may like to see more zip on his throws is in the intermediate range, underneath patterns, outs and curls. He has to keep DBs from comfortably sitting on his throws with the certain knowledge that the play will remain in front of them with plenty of time to pick or immediately wrap up the receiver. If he can do those things even moderately well, and keep his composure in the pocket, he probably has a future in this league. If he continues to show well in preseason I would not be surprised if the Bills looked to move AJM. It would certainly be a refreshing change to have a talented starter (Allen) backup up by a capable backup both on rookie deals.

To me whether or not the Bills have a shot at fielding a decent and reasonably productive WR corps in 2018 depends much more on the condition of Kelvin Benjamin's knees than than on any other factor, more even than on who is taking snaps under centre. If he stays healthy in this his contract year he will not only have a 1000+ yard season but will open the door of opportunity for the other guys who make the roster. Important also not to lose sight of the impact of what looks to be a major upgrade at OC. If KB is good to go we could well see a significant improvement not only in the passing game but in the O overall.

Osweiler, Lynch...some GMs are just suckers for big bodies I guess. Lynch simply does not look to have a future in this league. Gives absolutely zero indication that he belongs on an NFL playing field. I don't know whether and how he will develop but Chad Kelly for sure has a chance. I knew about the injury and his being a head case and all but I had a hard time understanding why he was not drafted much earlier. I saw a fair number of his college games and it always seemed to me that the talent was definitely there. He may turn into a real steal for the Broncos. He will have to after the Lynch fiasco. There are a number of late round or undrafted youngsters who are looking pretty good so far this preseason - Fales, Kelly, Slotter, that kid who came in after Cam for Carolina.

I do think there is a meaningful distinction to be drawn between inaccuracy and inconsistency. Allen can be deadly accurate. He will make throws that only the greatest QBs playing the game today can make. And it's not an accident. He actually does it quite a lot. Inaccurate QBs simply "cannot do what [Allen] do" in the words of Chad Johnson. He just needs to learn to do it more often and the Bills have pushed a lot of chips on the square that says he can. I like the bet they made. I like it a lot.

The risk starting a young QB too early is irreparable damage to his confidence. It's a psychological thing. I'm starting to doubt that Allen is even capable of losing his confidence. His every action seems to show total self assurance. Combine that with talent that's just crazy and you could be looking at a prodigy. And that voodoo chemistry can be infectious - raise a lot of guys levels of play. If it looks like he can handle it (while understanding that he is going to make some mistakes) and if he outperforms the other guys through what's left of the preseason practices and games, then IMO he should get the start when the bullets start flying for real.

Excellent breakdown. Thanks for posting. Allen's talent is flat out ridiculous. I had projected him as potentially in the Elway mould, and I'm still comfortable with that comparison, but man the Favre likeness is compelling. No QB ever had as much insane confidence in his arm as Brett Favre - unless it's maybe Josh Allen. Ungodly testosterone. If as advertised he's also a really quick study, they should probably start him sooner rather than later. I'd try to accelerate his second and first team reps and live action and see how he does. If he handles it well I would turn him loose. This kid has the potential to be a dominant player at the all important position.

Allen's play on Thursday night was exactly identical to his WYO game tape, some eye-popping, some head scratching, some deadly accurate, some inaccurate. He prolly felt right at home behind that porous O-line.

Either he has a volcano in his belly or its his contract year. Its his contract year. He should be fun to watch this year. Hope he stays healthy.

66% is pretty darn good. Couple hundred a game - meh, sort of Joe Montanaish. He also had his share of 300 yard games. Chad was narrowly beaten out by Peyton as league MVP one year. Twice comeback player of the year. Played a long time in the league. If NP can morph into Chad I'll be deliriously happy. Turning a fifth round pick into the equivalent of 18th overall. Sure if Allen can develop into Elway, he's the starter and with Nate/Chad backing him up the Bills would prolly have the best tandem under centre league wide. The rap against Nate is arm strength. I defer to more knowledgeable posters on this but I'm not sure arm strength alone will be the reason he fails to make it in the NFL. Maybe a stupid question but is his arm that much weaker than Drew Brees? Or Joe Montana? For almost all QBs, including the great one, so much depends on scheme and offensive philosophy.

If he's Chad Pennington (the pre-injury Chad) the Bills have struck gold. Who wouldn't want CP as a long term backup. People don't seem to realize that CP was a good starting calibre QB. I'd say Nate has a lot to prove before he is worthy of that comparison. Assuming he wins the job I think we find out very soon whether he can play at this level or not. Ravens are a tough D with good young corners and tough veteran safeties.