I probably didn't elaborate enough on my train of thought for agreeing with the go for two philosophy. The 48% success rate you reference is based in large part on scenario's where the defense is expecting the 2-point attempt..the scoring team down by 2 or up by 1 in the fourth quarter where it really wouldn't make sense to go for one. Cinci would have been caught at least a little by surprise by a two point attempt and without any timeouts would not have been able to adjust. Also, building on your 7 point underdog point, had we gone for two at least the outcome of the game would have been in our own hands rather than a coin flip (even though you point out that winning the flip does not mean winning the game I like the odds). And again, hindsight is 20/20.