cage

what? No 7-round mock draft?? I want to know who they'll be picking with the extra 5th rounder fleeced from the Zay Jones trade...

You know what would be incredible data... if teams could submit their draft boards to an anonymous process AFTER each draft and just make a consensus draft board out of it. Can't look at any teams ratings, just the final average slot for each player. Then we can see after a few years how well or poorly people drafted. The problem I have with criticizing a pick like Harris (or countless other busts) is that if the Dolphins didn't pick him, he probably would have been gone within the next 5-7 picks to be a bust for someone else. Most likely, evaluators as a whole got it wrong on the guy rather than just the one team that selected him. The Athletic has a great article on this that created a consensus board this year and last year from a collection of evaluators and pundits, but it would be incredible if that could be taken from the actual teams doing the picking. A reach is not a reach four years later, but in real-time if you're picking a guy #26 that the vast majority of the league is rating as a 5th rounder.

it probably highly situational. Depends on where other teams have injuries, gaps due to poor performance and where some of our talent stands out as a better alternative. In addition to Bodine and Teller last year the Bates trade involved a DE. Its possible for trades of DL, OL, maybe WR, maybe even Barkley depending on the circumstances I just described.

That's interesting... I wonder if his Dad will come cheer him on. Could be heck of a pre-game interview

Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion. They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board. Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is. If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach. They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts. So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S. So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round. So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round. I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL. Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations??

If you consider the what if our opponents (1st Jets and Titans games) had better kickers, we might be looking at 8-8 last season with a completely different narrative about this team.

Based on what Beane said, he was trying to trade up 3-4 picks with an NFC team, but during the discussion the guy got picked. So the 2nd pick of round 6 when we have the 8th is consistent with what Beane was saying. He also said the player was picked by an AFC team. He may have been trying to trade w/ the Panthers or Giants, but the Broncos jumped on him before they got to the team being on the clock.

What are the odds on Bass? 8-9 FGs over 50 yards including 2 game winners. Plus ties the NFL record for longest FG.... we can dream, right?

Finally someone who admits it. I'm with you brother!

I think that's a serious consideration that has to be factored in. Its not hard to imagine the season being lost in which case I guess they would draft #22 again with the players being underclassmen who's video is all from this past season. Maybe it would be worth making a trade like that if you have a high enough grade on someone who will go in the top 5 tonight???

I'm not sure how anyone gets excited about him based on website rankings / write-ups. He typically gets very generic narratives that he's productive, but not outstanding and that its a draft year short on Edge talent. Makes me want to trade up for him....NOT

If they like Diggs that's fine as I'm sure they would have done sufficient research on him. If they don't intend to pick him I hope he's off the board by 54 rather than us passing him over. You never know what kind of emotions you'll have to deal with

Page 4 of this topic??? The ultimate reflection of not having a 1st round pick tonight

Totally agree! He's essentially a 1 year rental as he'll want money the year after that, which we won't be interested in paying him. So he'll be unhappy unless he goes to team that will showcase him to set up for next contract, which we won't do given Singletary.

Chaisson at 128? It would be a miracle if he's there at 54...and if so, they would take him right there!

Terrell Lewis if he's there. I think from our need positions, DE are the hardest to find once you get past R2

I'm not sure how difficult this would be, but I'd love to see some study that examines the affect of team culture, coaching, situation on QBs (lets just say 1st rounders). There's a 50% bust rate, even in top 10 pics and you have wonder about some of these situations. Would Manuel have done better elsewhere? Would we have ruined Patrick Mahomes? Or never played Brady if we had picked him in the 6th round?

Oops, I skipped past that one

Came out #12. As I look at the list it seems he should be in that 6-10 grouping. I'm not sure that Indianapolis and Tennessee have done enough yet to really warrant being rated that high. The hit rate on both draft picks and free agency has to be near the top of the league. The organizational culture change is also impressive. He's also been willing to be bold in making his moves. I'd put him at #9 at this point.

I'll just give you a link to the article. If you haven't seen it yet, vote first http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001109659/article/nfl-gm-power-rankings-brett-veach-john-lynch-surge-up-list

So they traded Diggs because he was a "diva" personality and will then bring in OBJ?? How does that make sense?

Honestly, I don't know how they start the season on time?

Its either topics like this or another thread on who our 2nd round pick should be....

Interesting argument on 538 that it should be worth much more than 2 points. Given that they're actually much rarer than a defensive TD. They're landing at 11 points, which would change a lot of late game strategies...thoughts? I think I would like it as 5 points and keeping the ball, which was not one of the choices they looked at. It is a difficult play and should be awarded more points than two. I don't think I like the changes in late game strategy their approach would lead to which would likely include the trailing team kneeling down at the opponents 1 to deliberately not score a TD and turn the ball over. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-safeties-should-be-worth-more-than-touchdowns/

It has to be devastating when you realize that you just can't do it anymore and your playing career is over. I understand the retirement after going through the whole offseason thinking you can still bring it. None of us can imagine how that might feel, the finality of it. With that said, he should have gone to Frazier, taken himself out of the game and supported his teammates through the 2nd half. He could have retired after the game and people would have a lot more respect for it....