maddenboy

We dont have any superstars. Mario is on the downslope of his career. Nobody wants to take a CB in round one, for outdated reasons. Gimme as many good/great players as you can and lets see what we can make. Just dont gamble. And dont pass on what you think is an excellent player because the draft slot "value" isnt right. That's dumb. Draft "value" seems to assume that every player will be good. So since they're all going to be good, we can rank them. Instead, find the 4 or 5 or 10 or 20 ones who will actually be worth a shtt and get them as fast as you can.

I slightly disagree. A "reach" doesnt just mean you can get him later. To me, a "reach" means that the player has risk. All players in the draft have risk. But again, this idea of "reach" is based on some idea of draft value. If you took Brady in the 3rd, AND you and your scouts decided he was a franchise QB, then its not a "reach" because there wasnt any risk. But if you and your scouts were gambling on brady, and your board said he was a 7th, then yes, taking him in the 3rd would be a big "reach." If there is a guy you have decided will be a good/great player, then take him. Dont worry about where you take him. Because a couple years from now we will look back at all the scrubs and all the good players. w/r/t the good players, we will say "damn, why didnt we take him at 9 or 41? Why didnt we see he was a good player? So what if he was projected at 17 or 55? FIND GOOD PLAYERS AND TAKE THEM A.S.A.F.P.

All i'm really saying is this: Trust your board. Dont worry about "value." You think there are 12 guys in this draft who will be good and you pick at 9, and most of them are gone when you're on the clock. The next one you think is actually one of the 12 guys is "projected" to go at 17 based on "value," then you take him at 9 (if you cant trade back). Five days later the fans will bring the pitchforks. Five years later you'll be smelling like roses. The more I think about it, I guess i'm really saying I trust Whaley. Because when Nix, Jauron, RW and all of them used to make "i'm the smartest guy in the room" picks I hated it. Because they werent the smartest guys in the room. NOW, if Whaley wants to take a RT or TE or OG or whatever at 9, even if the "value" says you dont do that at #9, I will trust it.

Seriously? Heck yeah. All I have to do is cross midfield and I have a sure 3 points,. Duhhh. But to your actual point, I did say that RB is excepted from the discussion. Of course punter and kicker and gunner, etc. are also excepted. I'm just saying that out of the first 32 guys on May 8, only a handful will be worth anything down the road. If you, as a front office, think you know who one of those guys is, take him regardless of what kiper or TBD or anybody else says. Dont gamble, basically. We arent just 1 or 2 players away. Gimme some solid drafts. gimme some real NFL players, and zero gamble players.

I kinda think that BPA is the best strategy if you have a lot of holes. If you have a lotta holes, then no one player is gonna bring a championship this year. If you have a lotta holes then you lack enuf good players. If you have a lotta holes you are a few years away. Look at the Niners. They drafted OL and TE and DEs when they sucked. Those positions dont move the needle much in the short-term. Now those guys are solid nucleus players. And when you have solid nucleus guys, THEN you build around them. If we were 1-2 players away from a championship, then I say draft for need. But when you are 8-10 players away, take the best player on your board.

wait. What? I am not saying we cannot predict which player will live up to potential. I'm saying we can. But to say "this player will be excellent, but we cant take him at 9 because he's a RT or OG, etc." is the problem. 5 years from now we will look back at this first round draft and see that only 7-10 players were worth a shtt. If you keep drafting real NFL players, regardless of position, instead of Aaron Maybin or John McCargo, you will soon have a good team.

I'm not really speaking to GMs. I'm sure they dont read this board much. I'm speaking to fans, like the excellent ones here at TBD, who often say we cant draft this-or-that at 9 because the value isnt there. I'm arguing for a change to that thinking. I'm arguing for BPA (which was not my original intention, but i'm forced to admit is the result of what i'm saying). I'm arguing for real NFL players and i'm arguing for a front office who will pull the trigger, regardless of draft slot or conventional thinking. Its kinda like if your wife is a gourmet chef. You dont go to the market thinking "i'm going to buy broccoli because we're out of broccoli" or "I'm going to buy shrimp because its on sale." Rather, you should think "i'm going to buy the best, freshest food they have, almost regardless of price, and trust my wife to make something delicious with it." Because buying something almost-rotten because its a "value" is dumb.

My thing has been this. For more than a decade. I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts. If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round: http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008 And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is. If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team. (I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best true NFL player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

My thing has been this. For more than a decade. I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round. If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round: http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008 And if you tell me that Kiper said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position, and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team. (I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

Hate: 1) The Miami Dolphins. Yes, I'm old enuf to remember the years when it was one of the best rivalries in the NFL. I want their players to break a leg on every play. These are the 2 games I circle on my calendar, and go out of my way to watch. 2) The fact that Bills-Fish is not an important rivalry anymore. (in my heart it still is). 3) The idea of the Bills moving anywhere. 4) The maddening question: If they DO move, will I still root for them? If the name is still Bills, and if its the same colors, then maybe. possibly. BUT if its not the "Bills" then i'm done 5) The possibility that if they move and change the name, I might be done with football. LOVE: 1) The Bills 2) Having a team to naturally, and genetically, root for in the greatest game on earth. 3) Doug Whaley. Seems to have a modern plan and the nuts to execute it. 4) BBQ wings at La Novas 5) The fact that I grew up in Buffalo (city of). Great place to be from. 6) Living in LA. When I was young I thought weather was a shallow reason to be for or against a place. Not anymore. 7) Tuel. Reminds me of Nick Foles. Seems to get it. Knows his job is to get the ball to playmakers. Not wait for the perfect pass. But to sling it. Give his boys a chance to make a play. I like his "moxy" I guess. Even Thad seems to get this more then EJ. Go Bills.

Yes, we have. I cant even remember the last time the Bills drafted the player that this board wanted in the first round. Dareus maybe??? But nowadays, i really do trust Whaley. I do think that he is at least as smart as this board.

You lost me right here. Surely you mean "trade UP" and take Matthews in the first. Matthews might not be there at 9. I'm not saying trade up, but I am wondering if you misspoke. Maybe trade down and get Lewan, maybe, but not Matthews.

I wish I had written this paragraph. I would not change a word. My sentiments exactly. And I wanted EJ badly. But . . . .

But then you end up with a roster of average players. Ya gotta swing for the fences sometimes. Give the coaches 2, 3, 4 special players and let them find ways for those guys to make plays. THEN you can round out the roster with just guys. A top ten pick is a place to find special players. Right now I'd say we have 1, maybe 2 (Kiko, and probably CJ). Players that every other team would want.

Dangit. And i just noticed that every team that needs a QB picks ahead of us. With the possible exception of Arizona at 20. Sucks. Can we at least get that 4th and also swap 3rds? Work with me here!

I love a mock that includes trades. You can tell that the author really put in some thinking time. But are you sure we can only get a 4th for the movedown? And are you sure we'd take such a weak-ish offer? I understand the point about supply/demand, but a 4th only?

After reading this whole thread I've realized a couple things. -As Astro and "Towlie - puff puff (Smapdi)" and others have cogently pointed out, RT improves our team more than any other position (except drafting a QB, or possibly a dominant 4-3 DE which might not even be anywhere in this draft). -Whaley isnt stupid by a longshot. And he has smart people around him. -We already have 147 Tight Ends, and now Brandon Kaufman is talking about a possible move to TE. -Matthews will be gone by 9 -The pick will, therefore, be LEWAN.

Lewan. I dont want the 3rd best tackle. This isnt helping me WIN THE SUPERBOWL THIS YEAR. (*in my best princess leia voice* "Help me Johnny football. You're my only hope")

no sir. The texans have the first overall pick. Not the 11th. And I didnt say anything about swapping firsts. You still pick 9th this year. Two first round draft picks, including this year's first overall, for EJ. Or Luck after 7 games. Or Elway. Manning. Even Kelly. The whole point is that you know if a guy has "it" or not. You dont need 2-3 seasons to figure it out,

iono. -I feel like there's 8-10 teams who are seriously trying to Win the SuperBowl THIS year. -probably another 8-10 who feel they are on the verge of making a run. -Then there's the 10-12 who are just trying to get better. I feel like we've been trying to get better for 15 years or so. People want an OT or LB or TE or WR so we can get better. Rearrange the deck chairs. Or instead, maybe keep taking a QB until you find a real one. If the texans offered this year's #1 and next year's first rounder for EJ right now, would ya? Damn right you would. So dont tell me its still too early to know what we have in EJ. (because you would not have made that trade if you had Luck for only 7 games his rookie year. Or Russel Wilson. Or manning, elway, etc., no matter how bad their stats were. Because you "knew" those guys had greatness on the horizon. EJ? meh). We cant wait 3-4 years to see if he'll be good. Because "good" isnt winning us the Superbowl. We need great.

And if they miss the playoffs yet again, how stupid would that look? And if Manziel is the next Franchise QB they pass over, how stupid . . . And if they take Manziel, he wins the job, and makes the playoffs, how smart would that look? If. And a big if. If we are one player away from the playoffs, its QB. Ya gotta swing for the fences at QB. If you dont have one, nothing else matters. (and I know Whaley wont. He wont admit a mistake so soon. But I would love Manziel. And I wanted EJ soooooo bad last year. But the reality is, we still dont have a QB).

I believe it doesnt matter. They will take whoever they want. We will B word and moan for 3 months, having nothing better to do. I hate being an irrelevant NFL team. Nobody cares who we pick. We arent winning the Superbowl this year. Sigh.

iono. It hurts now. But it might be good for us later. It could make the barren, desolate wasteland of May, June, July a little more bearable. I hate it now, but i'm willing to see how it plays out.

i love Tuel. To me, he is every bit the "gamer" that Thad is. Tuel seems to recognize that his job is to THROW THE BALL. To give players a chance to make plays. EJ seems to think his job is to wait for receivers to get open. Hopefully all 3 will get better. Saying all that to say, I dont wanna put Tuel on PS. I dont want him poached by another team. If we draft a QB who cant reasonably compete to start This Year, then dont draft one at all.

well, possibly because I can get the Best of something else, then still get the 3rd or 4th or 5th best OT later. The top 10 is for special players. Game-changers. These are the tired phrases used. But it just doesnt . . . feel right to draft the 3rd best anything at 9.