brianthomas

Ha i was wondering if you were gonna share the link. I immediately thought about the discussion here. But i too found the article lacking details to help explain the reasons for our lack of success running them. On a side note, i recently found a way to get around the TBN paywall so i was able to read the article. Its a site that removes clutter from webpages to make it easier to read the content & for the hell of it i tried a BN article & what do u know, not only did it make the article easier to read, but it negated their paywall somehow. Its not what the site was intended for but hey i'll take it. I'd share it for others but it's probably not a good idea to. But going forward into next season I really hope we solve our screen pass issues so we can put a few into the game play every week. Especially considering how i fully expect an upgrade or 2 on the oline with more athletic lineman. We need to get Devin in space & make defenses think twice before they go all out on Josh.

Hey you said "run like SF" so i just made the point that you dont need a 1st rd back to have success, because they havent needed one. But you're right here, most of the top 10 rushers in the league are 1st rd picks for sure. But if u go out to top 15 the numbers change as 7 of those are not. However. More important imo than top rushers are the top rushing teams. It does no good if you have Nick Chubb but still finish 6-10. Out of the top 10 rushing teams, how many of those have a 1st rd back leading the way? It's 2. 2 teams out of 10. Tennessee & Dallas (Im not counting Baltimore because of Lamar). So once again that shows you don't need a 1st rd back to have success running the ball. As a matter of fact it kinda shows the inverse, that you're more successful without one. As long as you build your offense in other areas. Oline, TEs, WR's etc. At this point would i hate us getting one? No not really. But it seems like a luxury pick where we have so many other areas to improve that would serve us better as a whole (as a team), since wins matter most & not personal stats. And as i just showed, you don't necessarily need a 1st rd back to be one of the top rushing teams in the league. As the top rushing teams dont even have one. Now you can hangup

A running attack like SF? Where 2 out of their 3 rb's were not even drafted? Only Tevin Coleman was drafted & he was in the 3rd round. If anything SF's success has shown what is possible without having to draft a RB early in the draft.

I'm not big on signing Olsen for a lot of the reasons already stated. BUT, if signing Olsen means we cut Kroft & Smith & he takes over the mentoring/veteran role, & is good for at least 500 yards & 5 tds, & he signs for less than $5 Mil? Then i can be a buyer of that. But if we throw out a 3 year 18 Mil deal at Olsen then oh hell no!

Good idea making a thread for this, hopefully someone will have some good information. Perhaps we need to contact one of the All-22 guys about it. I searched on their site for about 40 minutes & couldnt find much, but someone like that would have to have something to say about it i'd think. Its hard to find good info on it & when theres a possible source its behind a paywall. But in my digging i see its been an issue with Allen going back to Wyoming. Theres the remark from Mel Kiper back around the Draft while comparing all those QB's & talking about Allens accuracy numbers being less than 60%. And Mel said if he was throwing more screen passes & easy throws like that, his % would easily be over 60%. But while digging up info on it I see those passes were a problem for him back then too, so perhaps thats why their OC didn't call them as much either. An excerpt from the editor of Star Tribune, the newspaper from Wyoming: “Like, we saw this Pat Mahomes last year with similar ability to make incredible sort of trick-shot throws, and you’ll see that with Allen, where you’ll be like, ‘Oh my god. There’s not five other human beings on planet Earth that could have done that,’ and maybe there’s even less. But he’ll do that, and a play or two later, it’ll be a screen pass, and Allen will just kind of turn to his left and fire an absolute 100 mile per hour fastball when he just should have been throwing a little lollipop and getting it to his running back.” Time after time thats the issue. Where his fastball will get to the RB before the blockers do to setup the play downfield so it looks like the blockers aren't in their correct position. Theres multiple video clips from google & twitter showing this from him or from preseason reporters watching him in practice. The ball just sails. Later in the year i mentioned in that other thread how i saw Allen overcompensate for this by going 180 degrees the other direction. Meaning floating the ball higher in the air where it seemed it took 10 seconds for the ball to arrive. Its like his arm is a loaded shotgun all the time & if you ask him to throw it gently he ends up forcing it somehow, being mindful that he needs to adjust & it throws everything it off. I don't think you want your QB to be overthinking his mechanics or throwing motion in the middle of a throw, you want it to be natural & just get there. So I think its something that can be worked on & must be worked on. Theres interviews with Daboll talking about the need to get Josh more completions with the short stuff. "Easy" throws that help get him in a rhythm. The season before, Allen averaged 10 completions per game within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage while the NFL average as a whole was over 16 completions a game on passes of that distance. Last year was the year they were supposedly gonna work on that but i still didnt see enough of them... at all. Aside from screen plays. We should have at a minimum of 5-6 set throwing plays with Beasley, dedicated plays thruout every game. Easy layups if you will to get Cole going & Allen in that rhythm once again. Kinda like how Brady would do with Edelman. 5 to 6 at a minimum.

Thats a lot of info there & appreciate you putting that together. The RPO bit is surprising. There are tons of NFL stat sites/articles that all state we use a lot of it. I'll post a random image that i found that gives a general overview of such at the end here. But it sure seemed that we used a lot of it while watching the games. I mean you look up Tom Bradys RPO numbers & according to PFR, Allen used the RPO only 11 more times the whole year than Brady did? That just doesn't make sense. There has to be something theyre missing or we're missing with how those numbers are calculated versus what Josh is doing on those plays. While writing this i did some digging & came across an All-22 film room article breaking down Allen's RPO's. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/9/13/17854442/buffalo-bills-all-22-film-room-whats-an-rpo-run-pass-option-zone-read-packaged-plays From the breakdowns & not knowing what Allen's presnap reads were, its hard to tell if a play is in fact an RPO or if its a Zone Read or something else entirely. So on the surface it may look like we run a lot of them but its just that the cadence of the motion is the same? Or on the flipside perhaps the advanced stats for RPO's are less than actual because theres no real way for a stats site to know what Allens presnap reads were? Idk. But overall i do think it makes sense for us to use them without a doubt. It just requires Allen to be able to make quick on the fly decisions with where to go with the ball. And sometimes it worked out great & others not so much. But when we're running on all cylinders with that play, with so many moving parts its gotta be hell for a defense to defend. I think of Lamar Jackson & how deadly he became from executing that play as well as he did.

What made me laugh were the random threads that would pop up here asking if we should try to bring Sammy back to the Bills. An idea as likely as signing Brady to mentor Josh. Tbh i dont care what Sammy has to say. We invested in him as a player & gave him every opportunity as we counted on him & it didnt work out. Now he's on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. I wish him no ill will but just like the Tyrod Taylors of Bills history, i'm burned out on all that bs & over it.

Yeah i agree with your assessment of the oline overall. As for the screen passes. You saw them called more often in the 1st half of the season, but then as the season went on it seemed Daboll used them less & less. I havent analyzed everyone, to be frank i'd have no idea how to even do that. But just from watching every game I can tell you more often than not that when we ran one i was scared to death. Other teams implement them vs us to great success & there is a smooth movement of the play where it baits our defense & off the play goes. But when we ran them on some throws the ball was thrown like a missile, getting there faster than Ford or Dawkins could run, since a fastball isnt the type of throw thats needed & the ball bounces off the rb's hands as you'd expect for a throw so close... (if the rb even turned around at all before the ball got there). Or Allen would over compensate and the ball would have a larger than normal arc with more touch & the ball would take too long to get there, giving the defense that split second of more time to recognize what was going on. I think its been pretty well discussed here some of the issues Allen has controlling his velocity on shorter throws that need some touch to them. And i'm a big fan of Josh so im not trying to be unfair to him. But i think Daboll took them out of the play book to a good extent simply because that play wasnt working for us & was an accident waiting to happen. And its a play i think we really need in our arsenal to help keep defenses honest & to use our shifty RB in space with blockers out in front of him. The few times where it did work, helped us out a lot. Like the 49 yarder to Singletary vs Washington. These types of plays can really help take the pressure off of Allen... when successful. I know i can't be the only one who thinks this way. I know the Buffalo News had a few articles where they talk about our inability to execute those plays. But theyre behind a paywall & im not gonna subscribe. But its not like Daboll just stopped calling screen passes willy nilly for the hell of it. Hopefully someone else with more knowledge on the subject can speak to it. But that'd be my general assessment of the whole subject as a fan watching.

I keep seeing posts saying the OLine wasn't good enough, Allen was running for his life. And to some degree that was true. Unblocked defenders were in his face way too often. But what we don't know is why those plays happened. Sometimes they picked the wrong defender to pick up, so was a presnap read missed on some of them? I do know that Allen held onto the ball the longest in the league last year. I believe around 3 seconds. So doesnt that imply that he had the most time to throw? Of course the Oline could use an upgrade & im sure Beane will work on that. This whole team has been built incrementally from season to season, with him looking to upgrade everywhere. But what needs to improve the most is Allens faster recognition of the defense pre & post snap & where to go with the ball. Upgrading his weapons for sure should help with that, as well as another year of learning & growing. But our Oline was sufficient enough for us to have success. Allen couldnt complete a screen pass for his life, passes which help immensely with easing the oncoming pressure, nor could he hit on those deep passes. And there were times when he had all day to throw (with WR's or TE's wide open) that he just didn't see were open, or where his feet were planted the wrong way & he'd just flat out miss them. This is not a knock on Allen as i've been impressed with his growth & play. Just an observation. I think the Oline overall was a pleasant surprise last year. So many new bodies & i think they held up & for the most part played together well. Still room to improve of course (and im sure it will be) but you just can't hold on to the ball all day long in the NFL. You need to get rid of it on time.

I do 100% expect the Chargers to move on from Rivers but I am surprised that NFL.com & ESPN havent posted this story if it is true. This tweet came out hours ago, 222pm, so you'd think there'd be a more official article about it. All you get on NFL.com is an article that came out at 630pm, hours after the tweet, that says his future there is still uncertain. Case in point, Jay Glazer says one thing, Ian Rappoport counters that they havent. https://news.yahoo.com/counter-report-chargers-haven-t-020147111.html who do we believe?

When we evaluate the draft & where one player was picked versus someone else, we do so with the added benefit of hindsight. The ultimate example being Tom Brady drafted in the 6th round. So yeah some 1st round wr's in hindsight were drafted too high, but others worked out well & performed as they were hoped to. You do your scouting, you have your film study & analytics review & interviews & you make the best decision that you can. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesnt. But if when pick #22 comes around & theres a wr Beane feels is the BPA at the time then he'll draft him. But theres nothing about Beane that makes me worry that he'll reach for anyone. So when it comes time for our pick he'll simply pick whoever is his BPA at that time. And if its more valuable to trade down given who we have targeted on our board, we'll move down & get another pick. Bring on the draft!

For those who were wondering, the Bills had the 9th best average offensive starting position in the league. Here is the data in case you're curious. Whether that warrants holding a roster spot for someone like Roberts, that'll be up for debate. But i do appreciate how he was dependable not to turn the ball over.

Some internet digging: You mentioned ESPN, 6 out of 10 espn experts picked the Texans. On espn's site the headline is how the Bills can get the upset victory over the Texans. https://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/story/_/id/28411692/nfl-wild-card-upset-picks-how-bills-beat-texans Another article states majority of experts pick Texans: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-vs-texans-predictions-majority-of-nfl-experts-pick-houston-to-beat-buffalo/ar-BBYB6rZ 5 of 6 Sports Illustrated picked Texans 6 of 8 SB Nation picked Texans 4 of 7 USA Today picked Texans... Sources below. Thats not to say the ESPN tv crew on the field didnt all pick the Bills because they did. But that 1 channels on field tv team isn't the same as the national conglomerate of experts out there. This game wasnt as one sided in the national media as you claim. This wasnt like Superbowl 25 where everyone thought our Bills would light up the Giants & we were favored by 7. Like i said earlier, Texans were favored by 3. So yeah i totally disagree with your premise since 4 espn field personalities arent the same as all the NFL experts. There isnt a dark cloud over us. We didnt embarrass ourselves or reach a new low. It was a very close game between 2 good teams & it went back & forth & couldve been decided either way on any number of different plays. We'll get em next time & I bet if we get there again next season, the majority of experts will pick us instead. Because our schedule is a lot tougher next year & we'll have earned it

Any other QB & youre right, thats whistled down as in the grasp. But for players like Allen who are known to escape situations like this, the refs seem to wait longer to blow the play dead. Not wanting to stop the play too soon & be the cause of a great play being ended prematurely. Things like this we just have to live with imo & take the good with the bad. As for Lee Smith, I know he's been praised for his leadership & his penchant for blocking but i really wasn't that impressed with him this year. Way too many penalties that killed drives over the year that you wouldn't want to see from a young TE, yet alone the veteran teacher. And even just in this Houston game, there were critical missed blocks on his part that hurt our offense, not to mention others over the course of the year & lapses in composure. Sometimes those things just happen, nobodies perfect. But i expected more from him as this blocking TE guru. I personally wouldn't mind parting ways with both him & Kroft this off-season. Can't wait to see what Beane does

Pretty confused by your post here. From what i recall, most of the so called experts picked the Texans to win. Not by a huge amount, i'd say it was probably 60-40 Texans. I know some who have been with us as a dark horse candidate picked us like Schein or Robinson. But even people like Chris Simms who is pro Josh Allen & pro Bills picked the Texans over us. Even the betting line was Texans favored by 3.5 points. Mostly because they had the quote "better QB" & were at home. I also don't see that game as a new low either. We played tough & played an exciting game that went deep into OT & back & forth. Us being there was a surprise to lots of people if you look where we came from at the start of the year. Our young QB & team keeps growing & with $90 million in cap space we'll keep doing that & be ready to take the next step

He's shown me more than Kroft has. In Knox's rookie season he was 16 yards short receiving to Krofts best year in 2017. And salary wise, what Knox makes over 4 years is what Kroft gets in 1. Dawson will be here for awhile & i'd expect him to improve next year, but just like every position i'm sure Beane will look for upgrades where possible. And as much as i wish we'd move on from Kroft (as i wish we never signed him in the 1st place), i expect he'll be here again next year as well. But yeah our future looks great... as long as Allen keeps making strides in improving his game. This team will go as Allen goes. But yeah we're in a much better position now than we have been in decades. Its time for us to circle the wagons on the AFC East & the rest of the NFL

hearing & reading posts like this just makes me more depressed. Yeah for sure there shouldve been a penalty there. There were lots of opportunities for us to win the game. Wrong or missed calls by the refs but more impactful imo were our own mistakes. It sucks to get blown out of a game, probably sucks even more to think you shouldve won a game when you lose it. All we can do is hope this loss pains them & they turn it into extra motivation for next season.

Technically yes you're right. But thats just not the way people think. Like when you turn 20, 30, 40 years old, each time you hit one of those years you consider it a new decade of your life by default of digits. Its the same thing with the calendar & 2020. Its a bit illogical but its just the way it is

If anyone needs a way to watch this game, just send me a pm. You're not gonna want to miss the Bills winning their 1st playoff game in years. Starting off the new decade with a win!

I've said this a bunch of times but I havent been a fan of the Murphy signing since day one & im sure Beane will look to improve DE during the offseason. If he can find an upgrade he'll move on from Trent for sure. Me personally i hope he does. He's only had 1 good year in his career back in 2016, other than that he's done what he's done here with us. We're paying $7 mil now $9mil for a guy who before today had 33 tackles & 3 sacks. Perhaps you think thats money well spent, but i'm pretty sure we can do better. As others have stated, he's not that great in stopping the run. He doesnt set the edge well & gets pushed back often & is pretty slow for a DE. While rushing the passer he doesnt seem to get his hands up enough to deflect passes either. Not to mention that he's often hurt & not even on the field a quarter of the time. He may have gotten sacks today, but it was a meaningless game. If you're paying someone that kinda money, you'd like them to have an impact when games matter. Not just when getting a couple sacks vs the Jets will get you a nice bonus check. As always I hope he tears it up for us because we need him to. But if we have a chance to move on from him i hope we jump at it.

Her voice is okay i guess, better than mine, but i know my voice is flat in parts so i don't make videos of me singing, but her voice just doesnt fit the song at all. I think thats why people here spoke negatively about it. I know thats why i did. Church choir vocals don't really fit in with Renegade imo. Surely not for a Bills song to pump anyone up. But shes obviously a Bills fan so hey, thats cool. But gimme a Renegade that rocks Btw we're in the playoffs! GO BILLS!

And why didn't we pull the trigger? Because of the last thing i said in my post: "because the price was too high for his plans" Idk why you're quoting me on that lol. Every GM was interested in Mack including our own. Once Beane learned of the cost he obviously felt it was too much. The same process that'll take place IF & only IF the Rams do look to move Donald. If Beane felt that cost was too high for a position of need, for a player who has connections to our city & who has made it known in the past that he would've liked to play here, then i see no reason to think he'll pay that cost for a position we have good depth in with Donald. And btw we have no idea what Beane offered back then. Rumors are just that, rumors. Most likely from beat writers hoping you'll click on their story. Theres a new rumor every day about something. Rumors none of us will ever know if they're true.

Yep, i posted his cap hits just a couple days ago in another thread where people talked about moving on from Star. All these topics are just fan board fodder. Its just not gonna happen. If you're trading for Donald & getting rid of Star, its the 7.5 hit that you're taking. Plus the money to replace him $25 mil. So thats $32.5 mil just for that 1 spot. Where we rotate our DT's a ton, making it where you're spending all that money for 50% of the snaps. Beane didn't make all these moves to fix our cap, just to make future moves to eat it all up again. We may have 90 mil of cap space next year, but that doesn't mean we're gonna spend all of it. Ed Oliver is our Aaron Donald that we drafted & we'll try to resign Phillips. Any moves in free agency or trades will be for other positions of need. And we all know what those positions are from other threads discussed adnauseam. If Beane would be interested in doing this for Donald, he for sure wouldve been interested in Mack, for a position that was much more in need than DT is. But he didn't because the price was too high for his plans. Theres a lot of different ways to shoot down this idea but i'll just leave it at that. Its just not gonna happen no matter how much anyone might want it to.

If we weren't already committed to Star than yeah I'd say go for it. But given that we are & given how much we rotate our DT's i just don't see this as something we'd do. No matter how much i might salivate at the thought of it.

If only Duke Williams was on the field for that last play to the end zone. Perhaps if that wr wasn't 5'8" he comes down with the catch. haha im joking but now that i think about it