I'm going to say this game will come down to 3rd downs and special teams.
On offense, we need to get into favorable 3rd down situations and convert at least 60% of them. We can't have those 2 yd first down runs and 2nd down incompletions forcing us into 3rd and long. We need to consistently move the chains, get into favorable field positions and score points when we have the opportunity.
On defense, we need to limit those 3rd and long conversions that seem to haunt us when some TE or RB gets loose on 3rd and 8 and keeps the chains moving, allowing a scoring drive. We need to get those 3rd down sacks and turnovers and keep the Texans offense out of sync and under pressure. We also can't allow first downs from stupid penalties to keep drives alive. No roughing the passer, no PI, no jumping Offside or holding.
Special teams. We need to hit our FG's from 40+ This could be the game. We need to limit returns, not shank any punts and have Roberts finally pay off and break a punt return loose for a TD or at least a big gain. I think both offenses will move the ball and put up at least 300 yds. It will be the little things that are do or die.