section122

I like to look at numbers as they remove a lot of emotion. I know they aren't perfect as they don't take into consideration a lot of context but I came across this and wanted to share as I thought it was interesting. DVOA (Defensive adjusted Value over Average) attempts to take numbers and add context to them. What I found was that coaches specialty and there resulting rankings didn't mirror like you think they would (much like Rex, a defensive guy, having a better offense than defense) Top 10 teams: 1. Denver - Kubiak is a former QB and OC 2. NYG - McAdoo was the OC last year 3. Arizona - Arians was an OC by trade 4. Philly - Pederson is a former OC and QB 5. Seattle - Defensive guy in Carrol 6. Baltimore - Harbaugh was a ST coordinator also DB Coach 7. Houston - BOB is an OC by trade 8. SD - McCoy is an OC by trade 9. Minn - Zimmer is a DC 10. Carolina - Rivera DV So 6 of the top 10 DVOA defenses (and the top 4) were led by an offensive minded HC. So it seems the HC background has little to no impact on whether a defense is successful. Furthermore 3 of the top 4 defenses will be sitting out of the playoffs as well as 6 of the top 10 will be missing the playoffs. I'm not sure what any of this means but I thought these numbers were interesting.

Yeah I don't want to take this to PPP territory but the recent election really showed (me at least) how bias every single reporting agency is. Fox News used to be the standard joke for slanted and biased reporting then I watched CNN, Huffington Post, NPR, the NYT, Washington Post, and others just make absolute fools of themselves. I wish it was just sports journalism that had taken this fall but it is an epidemic at this point. The worst thing about it is good quality reporters get grouped in with the idiots and their message is lost or worse decide that they must too be like that.

Just finished up "The Night Of" started slow, got really good in the middle, and then the end was just meh. How do I do spoiler tags so I can discuss it?

Here is a great example of that: http://deadspin.com/how-espn-manufactures-a-story-colin-kaepernick-edition-1185400028 This was the article that broke the proverbial camel's back for me. For a long time I had been jaded about ESPN but continued to watch. This article and situation perfectly showed what I had been feeling. So much sports "news" is created by the talking heads. It is really ingenious. Obnoxious but ingenious.

No matter the hire it is going to be hard to move my needle. All of the names mentioned don't really get me excited conversely none of the names give me the "we're doomed to failure" that the Dick Jauron hire gave me.

4th quarter comebacks when trailing by any amount. It really isn't as prevalent as you and other posters make it out to be and it involves a lot of other factors outside of qb play.

I gave you total wins when trailing by any amount. I can't find such a specific thing because IT'S A MADE UP STAT.

So does Aaron Rodgers suck because he does it at about the same rate as Tyrod? You have to reach pretty far for 4th quarter comebacks to be a relevant stat. Jay cutler has 21 so he must be better than Aaron Rodgers by your math.

Paging DC tom....

Ahh yes W/L the ultimate QB stat I get that everything I posted flies in the face of the "but he sucks" argument. You can hang your hat on comeback wins. Not paying attention to the fact that football is a team game and in his last game started he did just that TWICE and still got the loss. However I'm a sucker for proving people wrong.... 4th Quarter comebacks down any deficit: Jameis Winston has 3 in the same amount of time Marcus Mariota and Teddy Bridgewater have 4 in the same amount of time Blake Bortles has 5 starting an extra year Kirk Cousins has 7 starting 17 more games Sam Bradford has 7 starting 49 more games Aaron Rodgers has 10 starting 113 more games (shining star to prove it a useless stat) Tyrod averages 1 about every 15 starts same as Arod.

I guess this is the thread I will dump this info into: Tyrod had a better completion % than Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Carson Palmer, and Marcus Mariota Tyrod had a higher ypa than Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles, and Carson Wentz Tyrod THREW for more tds than Carson Wentz and Alex Smith Tyrod combined for more tds than Joe Flacco, Dalton, Tannehil, Bradford, Alex SMith and Carson Wentz Tyrod had less ints than EVERY qb except Brady and Dak Prescott Tyrod's QB Rating (not QBR) was higher than Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, and Cam Newton Tyrod has a better int% (takes into account ints per attempts) than Phillip Rivers, Jameis, Tannehil, Cam, Eli, Bortles, Big Ben, Luck, etc... - he is 8th in the league I could keep going but I think I have proven my point. If you think Tyrod is terrible you aren't paying attention to QB play around the league. I only included in this list names that I think people throw around as being better than Tyrod. Sure Tyrod took a step back this year but he had a better year than Phillip Rivers and Cam Newton. If they were the QB would people be banging the drum to replace them? With the injuries at WR and the sh*t show that was this years defense he has to be brought back imo. Go look at the FA QB list and answer this question honestly. If the Bills cut Tyrod does he move the #1 FA QB? Imo he does which means there is nobody better to bring in. I was just saying this same thing. After the team left Lynn to dangle in the wind last week and then Whaley this week letting Tyrod go with no plan in place will move me MUCH closer to NNN territory.

From your lips to gods ears

I want a 4-3 coach as I think that is the system that this talent fits.

I don't mind this as I agree with the flexibility angle. I would however prefer Cardale to get this start. I understand he is being "redshirted" but EJ is gone after this game. Starting him doesn't do anything developmentally for this team. I don't think it matters who the Bills trot out to start I think they beat the Jets as that team has entirely folded so I don't think the tank this game idea holds any water. I might be the last person on the EJ bandwagon. I think he got screwed here. I still can't believe that his Bills career basically ended in that Texans game when the refs missed a clear PI and the ball was intercepted. He had no QB coach his first year and then got the great David Lee ( ) along with Hackett to help him. I wonder if he can get it together on a team with a real coaching staff...

It wasn't a bad call. If it wasn't week 16. A loss or tie both eliminate the team so scoring is a must. There is more to situational game calling than what is happening in the moment. Relying on a defense that wasn't stopping them all day was a bad move that unsurprisingly didn't work.

I'll take a top 15 this year defense. The dolphins have 126 yards rushing on 15 carries!

I don't like to be reactionary but Corey whites effort on that td run is enough for me to see him cut right now. This effort is pathetic.

These are my thoughts in a nutshell. Thinking to next year... The Bills will get Ragland back which is essentially a free 2nd round pick, Shaq will have an offseason, they have their full complement of picks in the draft, Listenbee and Easley should be back. Without additional moves the Bills "should" get a talent infusion. Gillmore, Z Brown, and Lorax situations bear watching but I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 of 3 if not all 3 back with the team next year as well.

I also didn't realize how old he was. Wentz is only 3 years younger than Tyrod.

I think (emphasis on think ) that he tried to build on it and that is where the comments of blending the defense came from Rex. To me making the playoffs is a tough barometer in the East. The Bills have to play one of the best teams in the NFL twice a year. So while other teams can have a slightly off year and perhaps still win their division that doesn't happen in the East. You have to win the WC while taking 2 conference losses. It would be nice to compete with NE but they currently sport one of the best QBs and best HCs of all time. Currently 3 of the top 8 droughts in the NFL are all AFC East teams. Rex has had mild success against the Pats* which means those games aren't 2 automatic losses as they have been in years past. I agree with you that hoping for the chips to fall in our favor sucks and I don't want it to be that way forever but it is the current predicament. As an aside to your examples (I know that there are certainly examples of guys coming in and quickly turning it around) Quinn went 8-8 in his first year with Atl McAdoo was the OC before taking over HC duties this year and the Giants loaded up on D in FA.

Is that you Doug? I agree about our offense but I do think that a mobile QB fits this system better than a traditional pocket passer. I like Tyrod for his contract this year but get the trepidation over the next 2 years. QB contracts are out of control though so I also get that the market bears his contract being what it is. I don't think the Bills NEED a difference maker at QB but it would be nice to have one. I was extremely happy with the Cardale pick as I see him with an incredible ceiling however his floor is out of the league after his rookie contract imo. I just really hate the idea of blowing up a .500 team. Moving on from Tyrod without a plan in place would be a huge mistake imo. If they have the roster flexibility to keep him I won't be upset. Building and improving seems like a better track to success than starting over (again) for me.

TIL wins and losses are solely a QB stat! People love to say that Tyrod was exposed after coaches got film on him. Why don't they say that about Wentz? Wentz looked great. Against the Bears and Browns. In 3 of those 6 games Wentz passed for 190, 179, and 138 yards.

The Bills weren't loaded though. People have to take off the homer glasses here. They had a QB battle that lasted all through training camp. What loaded team has that? The Bills had a pretty good roster. Gruden took over a team that was already a perennial playoff team that couldn't get over the hump. That isn't at all what Rex had. The Bills also had an unusually healthy 2014 which didn't repeat in 2015. Sometimes the Ball bounces that way wrt injuries. As to what his style etc lead me to believe 201 will be better.... Ask yourself - is the Bills team better this year than it was last year? Imo it is. That shows improvement and says to me that the arrow is pointing in the right direction. I would like to see if it continues. I have said time and again if the Bills finish 7-9 fire him and I won't say boo about it. 9-7 though and I think it would be a dumb move.

I'm just following you around agreeing with you everywhere this morning I guess lol. I just want to add that watching other teams in the NFL it can also be MUCH worse than what we have now.