section122

lol we are the CoT! I don't know if he is still here often but bobonators and I were in lockstep on pretty much every issue this offseason. It was nice to have him posting while I sat back! Maury is one of the anti-TT guys and at least he is nice enough to post game recaps and has fun with his wanna be radio host self

The olden days lol. Pre free agency when the Celts were so stacked Wilt couldn't beat them? How about when the NBA really burst on the national scene in the 80s featuring the Lakers and Celtics including 1987 which featured 8 future HOFers and 8 of 10 championships were won by either team and players were falling over themselves to sign with either team. How about when Rodman joined the Bulls or Barkley and Drexler joined the Rockets? How about Shaq going to the Lakers and then every vet signing with them chasing a ring or maybe you don't remember Karl Malone and Gary Payton in the purple and gold? When is this olden days? Durant saw a path to a championship and took it. No fault and no knock on competitive drive. I can spin it completely different. Leave the only city, team, and organization behind, put your entire reputation on the line, and give up personal glory for team success. In football we would praise this guy. Look at how many guys do it and go to the Patriots. Look at Tom Brady taking way below market value to leave money out there. Is Tom Brady not competitive? KD didn't even take a paycut other than his Bird rights contract! I don't know that Kyrie and Love couldn't lead them there in a terrible eastern conference. As for GS all this bemoaning that Durant and OKC were up 3-1 and it is a guarantee that GS goes back? Hell even with Durant a healthy Kawhi might have had something to say about their return trip. Without Durant the Spurs certainly have a shot to upend GS. Can't have your cake and eat it to. Either Durant should have stayed put because he could win in which case GS isn't a lock or he should give up his championship desires because GS is a lock and they weren't lucky enough to draft him. Everything GS did was above board and well within the rules. Can't blame Durant or GS. If anything blame LeBron and Dan Gilbert

What you posted may turn out to be true. Until it isn't. Using your logic no QB, unless they come in and immediately light the league up, is worth projecting out. It has been a safe bet going against the Bills and their players. However each and every QB gets judged on his merits not downgraded because of the laundry list of QBs that failed here. Tyrod is an interesting case because the people who like TT and want to see what he can do have him somewhere around the 20th best QB. The people that hate him have him around the 24th best QB. People on both sides of the fence are a lot closer than either think. However the anti-TT people use hyperbole that may end up being true but can't be stated definitively. "He has no chance to improve" "he is at his ceiling" "he doesn't posses the grey matter to succeed" "he is a rb playing qb". I said early in the off season and stand by it, the camps can be broken down simply with these statements: Pro TT - not sure what he is but he has played well enough to get another shot and this is his last chance. Would like to see if he grows into the QB we all want and want to find out while he wears a Bills uni. Anti-TT - Mind made up. He isn't the answer and I've seen enough. There are a lot of caveats from the pro-TT group and acknowledgment that he may not be the guy. JFH is the biggest homer on the board (wear it with pride John!) and he has stated repeatedly that this is a put up or shut up year. Transplant may have usurped Hokie or myself as the biggest TT supporter and even he has routinely mentioned flaws and caveats. The anti-TT group is much more hardline as they have made up their minds. What I have never understood is being so invested in something that we are posting here in June and then wanting to doom and gloom it. I want to talk about the possibilities because that is what the off season is about for me. I'm excited for the season as I always am because I love football and specifically Bills football. I'm sure you can see how being excited about something and having people come in and stojan all over it can be annoying to say the least. I don't mind well thought out posts against TT and I fully admit that they may be right. GunnerBill is a perfect example among others. It creates discussion which is the purpose of the board. I only take issue with those that don't support their arguments while thinking they are "crushing" it and spew negativity while taking cheap personal shots.

Russ has always struck me as an A-Rod type fraud. He wants so much to be liked he isn't genuine at all. Yup Russ got paid and not surprisingly the Hawks have fallen off. The defense is the only reason they are still one of the top teams in the NFC. That and they only have to deal with 1 other good team in the division at a time. It was the niners for a bit and now it is the Cards. Last year they had zero competition for the division. Absolutely not. Tyrod and Russ are so similar I don't think it is much of an improvement. Russ just had an amazing defense to win games as he learned the position. Russ won a playoff game with 103 yards passing. I've put it elsewhere but their stats are incredibly similar over their first 2 years starting in the league. Russ is better than Tyrod at this point but not 2 first round picks better imo. Hell last year alone Russ accounted for 22 Tds and 11 ints while Tyrod went for 23 and 6. 5 times last year the Seahawks scored 12 or less points the Bills did that exactly once and it was when EJ started.

Count me in the group that doesn't think they are sb contenders. I was never a huge Eli fan but he is on the downside of his career. His YPA has gone down each of the last 3 years. They didn't address their running game which was a gigantic weakness last year unless Shaun Droughn or Wayne Gallman does it for you. DJ Fluker is a question mark on an already questionable o-line and losing Hankins on the D-line will be a big loss imo. Add in playing in the crazy NFC East and they could just as easily finish last as first in that division. Better teams in no particular order from the NFC imo are the Falcons, Packers, Cowboys (think we see a step back from them too), and Seahawks. The Giants almost missed the playoffs last year and had a win and in week 17 vs the Redskins. They aren't a lock for the playoffs let alone a super bowl contender imo.

come on promo anti semitism isn't cool! What this team is really lacking is a Samoan.

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191783-aaron-rodgers-0-35/ I made a thread about it back in January.

I know a joke was already made but yeah she wants you lol big fan, grooming,then mad when you take time off to be with your family, then a smiley face, then checking to make sure you weren't mad at her I keed... kind of On the serious side.. I would talk with your wife and if you still can't reach a conclusion then I would take Tom's advice and flip the coin. Right before you flip it you will know which way you want it to land and that is your answer. Aww dammit!

That is fantastic advice and a great way to find out how you truly feel. Your not and idiot?

You have to trust your gut. I know it is cliched but you have insight into this decision that we couldn't possibly begin to speak on. That said here is my opinion based on the info provided: I work in HR and came across an interesting slogan "the behavior you allow is the behavior you promote." It has resonated strongly with me. In this instance, your current job has some backhanded and sneaky things going on and I see why that would make you uneasy. Your manager clearly has the CEOs ear so any type of grievance you may have will likely fall on deaf ears. Further you applied for this new job for a reason. Did something happen last week that led to you applying for a new job? Or just a general uneasy feeling?

These 2 posts together make me smile. I'll never quit on the Bills. Mainly because I have already quit caring win or lose. I used to die with every loss. After the Falcons debacle in Toronto where Chandler and Stevie fumbled away the win I was fuming. My wife rolled her eyes and told me I had a half hour to get over it. Having a kid put a lot of it in perspective as well. I have no control over it so I can't let it have control over me. The games are so much more enjoyable now. I still live and die a little but I move on from the losses immediately. Now the Bills are an excuse to get together with friends I don't see as often as I should and drink beer way earlier than I should. I get 16 Bills games a year and don't miss a minute of them and haven't for a long time. If they ever get good again I will be very happy until then they are a welcome distraction.

To the bolded: That is why I was saying we are all speculating and we are all only going to believe the narrative that fits us. For example you don't like Tyrod and think he wouldn't get his money on the market because he isn't good therefore he took a pay cut. It doesn't make it correct. Up thread I gave you Alshon Jeffrey and Terrelle Pryor who both this year took 1 year prove it deals to cash in. It isn't an impossible or even improbable scenario. YOU think Tyrod is average. Is it that unbelievable that TYROD doesn't he think he is merely average and therefore willing to bet on himself since he is set financially after last year?

Aren't we all? The people who think he took a team friendly deal, the people who believe Shaw's version, and the people who think he sucks and got what he could. It is all speculation. Hell you speculated in the very next sentence what happened! "Shaw's guy" speculated too based on years of experience working on contracts. He could be wrong but it is no less likely than any other version of events. Everyone is just going to settle on the one they believed anyway since we will never know what the conversations at the combine were, what the conversations between the Bills and Tyrod were, what Tyrod's feelings about staying in Buffalo were, etc... Even what was printed is hard to trust since comments could have been simply posturing.

Unless of course he believes he is more than a marginal running QB. He took the guaranteed money deal when he had yet to become financially established. He made more last year than he had in his career combined. Once he has that nest egg he gambled on himself. I'm not saying it is the definitive answer but it certainly makes sense if viewed that way. We just saw Alshon Jeffery and Terell Pryor take one year prove it deals to hopefully cash in next year. It has been confirmed Pryor turned down more money to do so. It doesn't always happen but it does happen.

That is why I wanted to dig in on it lol. It would seem to also reward poor teams QBs as well as poor scoring teams. The point however seems to be that although the Bills offense as a whole was effective Tyrod wasn't. Not sure that is the best way to say it but I think that is what he was driving at. For me personally it is really hard to remove the QB from the equation when discussing a successful offense or say that the QB didn't pplay a large part in it.

Not anymore ludicrous than any other supposition on the matter. It really makes perfect sense and could very well be how it went down.

I don't have time to dig in now but thanks for the explanation. It does appear that it would skew negatively towards strong running teams but I do see the point your trying to make.

Some excellent perspective. In a league where Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed at the start of last year as the guy the Jets needed people shouldn't dismiss the 20th best QB in the league as easily imo. There used to be a poster here named Edwards Arm and he always stated the best predicator of success was YPA and the stats generally backed him up. It always stuck in my brain. Mine is... If we had a QB we drafted and after 2 years he had gone for 47 tds and 12 ints we would all be very excited for next season to see what he could become.

Could you elaborate on the bolded? Just on a cursory look for me: TT finished with 23 TDs combined in 2016 which was more than Russel Wilson (22), Flacco (22), Bradford (20), Tannehil (20), Wentz(18), and Dalton (22) among others. I would like to look at it if you can find it as I may be misunderstanding your point.

Very fair. I am excited to see what TT can do this year. This is his last chance imo. 3 years of starting and we should know whether he can be the guy or not. I like the Dennison hire as someone who has worked with him in the past and am glad that the Bills helped TT through the draft with a WR and OL taken. I too would like to see the growth you describe. I'm nervous about the end result of this season (final record) as I see a defense with a few major holes in it. I do feel confident that the Bills are set up to move on quickly if TT flames out this year with the 2 firsts next year so within a year the Bills should either have an answer at QB or a highly rated prospect going into next season.

My evaluation has TT at about the 20th best QB in the league. I'm not trying to paint him as anything other than that. What is tiring is hearing about how terrible he is when the facts don't really back that up. He is a mid-tier starter by pretty much every objective measure. Wentz was indeed a rookie and Tyrod was in his second year starting. TT vastly outperformed him in pretty much all categories which I have gone over in many other threads. Wentz may end up being a franchise QB and much better than TT. He isn't there yet though. I was simply responding to someone asking by what measure the Bills D was considered bottom 10. I provided both raw data and advanced stats. Some people like one or the other so depending on which your choice is I gave both. It doesn't have anything to do with which I prefer. However, I like a combo of both thinking that both are flawed. DVOA is subjective but compares all teams evenly with that subjective measure. Raw data can be good but one amazing game one way or another can skew numbers (think Offense against 49ers and Defense against Pats* game 1). So I like to look at all of it and make up my own mind. The Bills defense wasn't good last year just like the passing game wasn't good. I put the defensive performance on Rex and the defensive staff and then scheme. I put the passing game on lack of WRs, scheme, TT in that order. He certainly is to blame for some of the shortcomings but the talent at WR was embarassing and Roman is known for poor passing attacks. TT needs to improve his consistency game to game, play to play, and his field vision imo. Consistency is the most important thing though for me. Seattle and Miami 2 show he CAN be a great QB but he has to do it more often to be thought of as more than a stop gap. I don't think he is done developing yet as I think learning happens on the field. This year though is it. After 3 years we should have our answer. See above. Even the most ardent of us realize he has shortcomings. What we don't think is he isn't a starter in this league. I have said time and again the biggest difference between pro and anti TT is simple. Anti-TT think he is done developing and we are seeing the finished product. Pro-TT think he might continue to develop. It really boils down to that.

Why DVOA because it is a great comparative statistic. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. If you had clicked around on the link you would see how it is calculated. Here is the explanation of it though and an excerpt of why I like it: Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down. Raw number can paint a picture but they are generally incomplete and discount other factors. The Bills appeared to have a decent pass defense but in reality the run defense was so bad teams didn't have to pass to move the ball. As to the rest of your post. A question was asked and raw numbers AND advanced stats were used and you dismissed both. What were you looking for exactly? YPG for run defense is the same as raw numbers. I didn't dismiss a game simply pointed out that if you removed an extreme outlier in regards to performance it looked worse than the 16th it ended at. Unless you think the Gronk and Brady-less Pats* are as good as the team with them. Perhaps if they played the Bills might not have shut them out? Do you really want to defend the defensive performance last year? Wouldn't Rex still be here if the defense was effective? I am not surprised that using numbers and stats doesn't bring anything to the discussion for you. Bills D - 23.6 given up good for 16th in the league Bills O - 24.9 scored good for 10th in the league So although the numbers are close numerically they are a bit different value wise. imo giving up 0 to the Pats is more of an outlier than the 41. The Bills gave up 0 once and the next closest amount was 13. The Pats* scored 41 and the 37 to the Jets, 31 to Seattle, 28 to Miami, 38 to Oakland, 34 to Miami, and 30 to the Jets. That is 6 results within the 13 point deviation.

Oops I just saw them at 26 and ran with it. It is an interesting tool and I want to use it in conjuction with other stats to debunk some myths (a generalization not directed at you Kirby as we are fairly close in our opinions on this mattter). Miami did NOT have a worse defense. They finished at 20 and their DC was given a HC job. The Bills fired their HC responsible for their finish as well as his brother. Only 2 teams finished with a worse defense and qualified for the playoffs. Detroit and Atlanta. Nobody has once made the argument that TT is better than either of those qbs. Speaking of Tyrod... (that is a link to click lol) Look at these interesting advanced statistics. We all agree that he regressed from 2015 to 2016 there are some interesting names he outperformed. Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehil, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco among others. Ask yourself if you watched these other guys play enough to qualify them against TT. Then add in the emotional component of 7-9 and it needing to be someone's fault. This is where the narrative that TT is terrible. Tell me about your eye test and I'll tell you to apply it to the rest of those guys and report back.

They finished 26th in DVOA which is an entire snapshot of the defensive performance and a great indicator of true success. They had the 29th ranked run defense by yards If you take out the game against the Brissett led Patriots their ppg moves to bottom 10 They gave up more than 24 points in 9 of 16 games Are we really going to pretend that the Rex and Rob Ryan defense wasn't bad? It led to their firing even. I am surprised it is debatable and I would imagine if I went through a lot of the anti-TT group they would bemoan the defensive performance during the season. I was going to respond to crusher but then I remembered not to feed the trolls...

I don't disagree with that and I'm not even sold that Watson and Mahomes won't be good qbs in the league. A neutered Whaley may have liked a guy but whoever (likely McDermott) made the final decision that he didnt. I just don't think it is fair to say the Bills ignored the qb position simply because they didn't take a top guy. They did evaluate all of them and chose to set themselves up to get one next year. They also grabbed a developmental guy for the 2nd straight year. The only reason I mentioned Jeff is due to his constant concern that having McDermott running the show would lead to only short term decision making. This situations an example of long term strategy.