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I'm all caught up on this thread and I have to say.... Rodgers could win it but Brady will win it. More than anything MVP is a narrative award. Don't discount how upset the media was with Rodgers skirting covid rules and being "immunized". Brady at 44 is having another all time year. At his age, I think he gets the cherry on top MVP. Brady has almost 1k more passing yards than Rodgers, is the only qb in the league averaging over 300 ypg, and has the most td throws. He has 2 5td games and another 4 4tds games. He has 3 400 yard passing games. He is going to end the year with over 5000 passing yards and 40 tds. I know nobody here wants to see it but I feel it is inevitable. Charity bet anyone?

For many reasons including the fact she respects my Sunday afternoons and how important this stupid game is to me she absolutely is. She is a saint.

I agree wholeheartedly with you. The best way to judge for me is how quickly would a coach get hired if he were to hit the open market. McD would get a job immediately and I think some teams would be happy to fire their coach just for a chance to hire him. Short term memory from OP but Buffalo was NFL siberia before he arrived. Chan Gailey had to become HC because nobody else would take the job at one point. The Marrone situation played out horribly followed by the Rex clown show. Pegula's got incredibly lucky hiring McD, and we as fans are lucky to have him steering the ship.

I was so mad after that game and my wife said to me you have 2 hours. I said what? She said you have 2 hours to be mad then you need to get over it. Its a game and you have no control over the outcome. I was steaming for those 2 hours lol.

Yeah the Mahomes vs Tre and Allen discussion has a lot more sanity to it than it did previously. This is one of those where situation really matters. I don't know if Mahomes becomes Mahomes in Buffalo. Even this year you could see some of the erraticism (is that a word?) to Mahomes game that I don't know if the 2017/2018 versions of the Bills would have been able to coach him up. Put another way I trust Reid to develop a qb much more than Rick Dennison.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/12/07/bill-belichick-new-england-patriots-broke-buffalo-bills

On PEDS?

Dammit I'm going to fall for your troll job... He thought brady was coming over to talk to him. You can even see him lean in as he expects him to say something. You're not just wrong there either... Payton tested positive, that wasn't their HC. He was only serving in that capacity yesterday. Also Jason Garrett claps way more than McDermott. Lastly, it's okay to react that way because someone clapped in your direction? Where is either of their taunting penalties then?

Wilbon is a co-host of PTI which I used to love and watch religiously to the point of DVRing it and making sure not to miss it. Then one day they were doing a segment and Wilbon said something along the lines of I am going to pick this side now and Kornheiser said in production we decided you would argue the other side. It was a quick pullback of the curtain but immediately ruined that and every other talking head show. I don't know why I didn't realize before that how they worked where they just argue each side without actually believing any of it but it was the end of me caring anything about the show. GMFB had Kay slip up one day saying usually we agree that 2 of us will be on each side but today I think we are all in agreement that x. (don't recall specifics). To say that any pundit actually believes whatever they say on a panel show is incorrect imo. I give more weight to Cowherd who is by himself but even he will take a side to be provocative so he gets a grain of salt as well. It was a dumb question and poorly worded imo. I want to know what he thought he would get out of asking it. Did he really expect them to say yes? Did he think they would say no? The defense gave up 14 points why would they be embarrassed? Why weren't any of the offensive personnel asked if they were embarrassed scoring 10 points?

Heat maps is kind of an inside joke here but I have long prescribed to the theory if your defense gives up less than 17 you should win that game. Conversely if your offense scores more than 24 you should also win that game. 17-24 points are coin flip games in my opinion. Going by that logic: Steelers game defense gave up 16 (ST was the td) offense scored 16. Offense didn't do their job Titans game defense gave up 34 offense scored 31. Defense didn't do their job. Jaguars game defense gave up 9 and offense scored 6. Offense didn't do their job. Colts game defense gave up 41 and offense scored 15. Neither side did their job. Patriots game defense gave up 14 and offense scored 10. Offense didn't do their job. So 4 of the 5 losses the offense didn't generate enough points. In 2 of the 5 losses the defense didn't get enough stops. To stretch it further: In 8 games this year the offense scored more than 24. 0 games in coin flip territory. In 8 games this year the defense gave up less than 17. 2 additional games fell in coin flip territory. The defense is not the problem. The offense is feast or famine. 3 games with 10 or less points and 7 games with 30 or more points. This team is designed to get an early lead and force teams to be one dimensional passing wise. When that doesn't happen you get results like Monday. How on earth is the defense getting all the blame when they gave up 14 points?!?! How is the offense skating scoring 10?!?! If the Bills offense ever took the lead does anyone really think it would have been 45 runs to 3 passes? If the offense scored on those first 2 possessions where they averaged the Patriots 46 yard as starting position, does NE stick with that game plan? It wasn't the defense failing to stop the Pats offense that led to the disparity, it was the Bills offense failing that led to the disparity. Defense is taking way too much heat for this loss completely undeserved imo.

thoughts from the nosebleeds: finally some hustle!!! Up and down (lot of down in the 2nd half) but they never quit whether tied or even losing, they fought all game. Torrance played great imo. He had a stretch where he drew 2 quick fouls, then drove to the hoop and got the bucket. Would love to see more of him. His handle gave IU trouble as they were used to JGIII who isn't as good of a ball handler. I think his speed gave them trouble. Edwards best game. Some of it was he just couldn't miss but he was aggressive which was really nice to see. I would like to see Benny Williams get some run and not get yanked for every little mistake. It looks like he is forcing it and too scared to make a mistake which is causing issues. It looked like he got annoyed once when JB addressed him. Hopefully nothing. Buddy has the slowest most telegraphed spin move I have ever seen. Great night from him though. 50 minutes is unsustainable though. Would like to see Torrance and JGIII together so Buddy can get some rest and JGIII can play SG. Was the end of the game foul as terrible as it looked in the dome? I don't know that I have ever seen a foul called on the put back like that. TJD is a player. It was a treat to watch him. Stud. Boeheim brothers played a great game. Jimmy really impressed me but it looked like he was gassed in the 2nd half. I don't know how he played as well as he did as tired as he looked. How awesome was it to have JGIII at the line with .8 seconds left in double ot. No doubt he was going to make it. Anselem banging down 4 clutch ot fts. Been a long time since I felt this confident with SU at the line. I was kind of hoping JGIII would purposely miss the 2nd ft but it all worked out.

I think JB is struggling with his sons on the team. It could just be my view from the nosebleeds but it seems that Jimmy has a terrible turnover that would normally lead to a hook and he gets to stay out there. It then cascades to Buddy who has very questionable shot selection at times. The leash both have seems much longer than the other players. I have no idea what kind of offense they are running most of the time as it doesn't seem like there is one besides give Buddy the ball. I would be interested to hear if there is turmoil on this team behind the scenes. Talent isn't lacking on this team imo more noticeable is a lack of effort. Colgate was getting every loose ball, chasing rebounds, and had no business winning that game other than they seemed to want it more. I couldn't even make it all the way through the VCU game as I watched more of the same. It isn't even the ACC season yet and I've already thought about giving up my seasons next year. Outside of the final poll last year they haven't been ranked in the top 25 for 3 years. I don't see them getting into the top 25 this year either. On a side note I think Swider is playing better than his numbers show.

I lurk so much because people usually have brought up my points before me. I missed this but kudos!!!

To the bolded: It sure feels like the offense is out of synch even when putting up points. I don't want to derail the thread but it is hard not to wonder if the vaccine and all of the opinions on it are causing a divide. Diggs had his acountability... availability tweet in the midst of one of beasley's twitter meltdowns. We've seen that the oline is split on the topic. Josh won't publicly declare his status which feels like it is so he doesn't ruffle feathers. This year Gabe Davis has disappeared from the game plan. When he was a part of it last week, we got a glimpse of that efficient killer offense. Beasley is mia for long stretches of games. Let me be clear though that is all conjecture on my part and I could be waaaayyyyy off base. It could just be the rest of the league catching up with the team. As good as it was last year, Daboll's track record is not great and opposing coaches are paid well too. I don't want to make too much of it because the offense is still 2nd in the league in ppg so while they are clearly working on things, the ship is not sunk yet. It just feels like teams know they can bully the Bills. A strong run game and a physical defense give this team fits. Exactly the team Belichick built.... I agree with you though It just feels like there is something going on with the team beyond football.

100 points to colgate. Unbelievable. They were outhustled period end of story.

That's actually a very good point and I can't disagree. What I was trying to say was that phrase is falling on deaf ears. It is time to mix up the message as it has lost it's effect on the team. Now instead of it meaning something, it is just something they say but don't believe. However your points stands and not being humble and hungry is exactly what bothered me about that game.

Boom is the name of the Robert Kraft/Adam Schefter book. https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/ny-adam-schefter-robert-kraft-gambling-20210923-o5r72a27fjbjdkzhijjocdqbyi-story.html NFL approved Gambling Sites (official NFL partners): https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-agreements-with-four-approved-sportsbook-operators#:~:text=NEW YORK -- The National,for the 2021 NFL season. The first 3 sites to partner: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-tri-exclusive-sports-betting-partners Plans to allow gambling inside of the stadium: The new NFL-NFLPA collective bargaining agreement takes the league through 2030 and paints a picture of a future with owners and players profiting off bets placed by gamblers at sportsbooks inside stadiums. Some of the gambling revenue split by owners and players could be based on the outcome of wagers, defined in the CBA as "the aggregate net difference between gaming wins and losses https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/28930507/new-cba-allows-owners-players-cash-stadium-sportsbooks So the league may not own any sites but it is certainly already profiting off of the partnership, will directly make more or less money dependent on betting outcomes, and has a team owner and league mouthpiece that own a site. It really isn't difficult to see that this is a troubling development. When the team owner is the same team that has been caught cheating multiple times, it makes me uneasy to say the least. When there are literal billions of dollars at stake, I think it would be more naive to think everything is on the up and up than not. Remember it doesn't have to be league wide. It can be single official. All it takes is 1 person to be influenced to create doubt in the entire system.

Since Sunday I have been trying to find the words about this game and you did it very well. I think humble and hungry has run its course. It's a phrase that is useful for an up and coming team but now the Bills are the lead dogs. There was a quote a couple of weeks ago that was telling to me that I can't find. It was along the lines of we know we are good and the other teams know we are good. Maybe Poyer said it? That is an okay mindset as long as you don't rest on the belief that you are good and forget the work that made you good. I think it was easy to see Jacksonville defense was playing with more urgency than the Bills offense. Josh looked strangely aloof as he continuously just went back and plopped on the same seat at the end of the bench. Jax Josh Allen looked like he was competing to be the top Josh Allen (pointing at the name on his jersey after the int) and played with his hair on fire the whole game. I think the oline got their lunch handed to them. I also think the entire offense thought they would just turn it on and be fine as they have done in several games this year (just last week against Miami). I also think these quotes from McD are saying exactly that. The pitt game and this game were both games where it looked like Buffalo thought they were going to win just by showing up. He isn't going to throw anyone under the bus and say they weren't trying very hard directly but that is my takeaway from these quotes. It can be a learning experience and hopefully a focused offense shows up next week against the Jets that Josh has typically struggled against. Hopefully this is a painful lesson like Arizona last year where the team can be better for it. Hopefully.

They identified guys that would buy in to the idea of team first it just wasn't easy to see right away. I was sick to my stomach when they traded Darby and Watkins in 1 day. I was in a 3 hour work meeting. We took a short break and my phone had so many text messages. I couldn't believe we were mailing it in before the season even started in year 1 of a new coach. Then they played well and were actually in the playoff hunt. I hated benching Tyrod for Peterman (post history is there). It was easy to see that Peterman didn't have an NFL arm. Then they made the playoffs. Next year they actually rolled him out as the starter week 1 and I was again bummed bc I knew he couldn't lead us anywhere. Then the hurdle, the 75 yard bomb to Foster against Jax, and it all went away. From then on I knew Josh would work out. That was why all of a sudden it worked out imo, they solved the qb issue.

I agree very much with your post. The bolded though is what I was addressing with the fact that people are viewing this subjectively not objectively. What is a good success rate? If refs got 99% of calls right, that still leaves 1% of calls being made erroneously each week. A quick google says between 134 and 168 plays per game. So 2144 to 2688 calls per week on average. That means at a 99% success rate there would still be 21 to 26 blown calls per week. This could range anywhere from simple human error to something much more nefarious. I think the good teams are able to overcome a blown call easier than bad teams and that also spins a narrative. During the drought it felt like there were always well timed penalties against the Bills when playing the Pats and then a bunch of makeup calls after the game was in control for NE to make it look even. Was that true or a fan opinion? I watched the Buff/KC game with a Cowboys fan last week and he commented before I did about how it appeared they were trying to keep KC in the game with bad calls. The difference was that it didn't bother the Bills and they still cruised to victory. Instead you have KC fans complaining about the Clark call which by definition imo was made correctly. We didn't have to have a 50+ page thread about the terrible holding call the play preceding it. Again I think it sucks that it happens and especially when it happens to the Bills but it almost has to be expected when humans are involved. Please don't let this post be a jinx for tonight lol.

This is 100% correct. I had a change of heart regarding officiating when I started officiating. Kind of like everyone should work retail or food service to see how difficult that job can be at times and to respect the job. The NFL rule book is 241 pages long. That is a huge document. Even if you know 99% of it you potentially could blow a call and not realize it. There are 22 players and 7 officials on the field. That means each official has on average just under 3 players to watch per play. Add in sideline personnel, coaches, and the rest of the team. There are over 100 people. The speed of the game. In the stands you get a better appreciation imo than you do on tv for just how fast the game is. Most passing plays have the ball gone in under 3 seconds. Players can be spread out over 30 yards in that time and moving at an incredible rate of speed. It is very hard to see fine detail at that speed. Then there is the environment which can be so loud at times it is hard to think. Add it all up: You need to know every single rule down to the incredible minutia that the Belicheck's of the world require because they attempt to skirt the rules constantly (Ravens playoff game a couple years ago), you need to use your 2 eyes to keep track of more than 2 players, moving at a lightning pace, under conditions that are less than ideal to concentrate. Oh yeah there is the bonus of slo motion replay from multiple angles that you don't get the benefit of when you have to make the call. Added bonus people are emotionally invested in the outcome and therefore don't judge your ability, skill, and performance objectively they do it subjectively. tl;dr it is an incredibly difficult job to do and expecting perfection is to forget that it is performed by human beings. I don't disagree that it sucks when they get it wrong or blow a call but they are only human.

No argument here. Its was a warm up game for the refs as well lol.

As a neutral observer that game was not a fun watch. They showed 2 defensive pass break ups in short order both clearly pi. Then the targeting non call. Yeesh. That was a tough game to watch and I would be irate if I were a gophers fan. Osu is clearly the better team but that was not a well officiated game.

I posted these elsewhere but here are their stats. Reminder that Hollister has played 4 years to Knox's 2. Here is a knox/Hollister comparison Knox: 52 catches, 676 yards, 5 tds in 2 years Hollister: 74 catches, 652 yards (!), and 6 tds Hollister has played with Russ Wilson and Brady so he didn't have scrubs throwing it to him either... 2 extra years and he has a grand total of 22 more catches or less than 1 per game. He has 24 less yards on 22 extra catches. He has 1 more td in 2 extra years. The stats say Knox is better. Knox has been in the system for 2 years. It really isn't a surprise. I'll flip your Sweeney question, what has Hollister shown that Sweeney hasn't? Sweeney again has 2 years of familiarity with the team. Hollister has his own injury issues. I think you are spot on that he lost his job to Kumerow but he is just a guy. He isn't a huge difference maker. He also is still unsigned so if something happens he is available to be brought back in. I do love that the Bills are in a position where people are complaining about keeping a 3rd te instead of which qb we want to see starting. Like this one that helped us win the game?

I have a very strong belief that this was Ernie Adams entire role with the Patriots. He watched and re-watched film to find tells from players. I vaguely remember something about Fitz opening his hips when throwing left so the defense was trained to watch for that, and that being spoken about after the game. I think that is why he was so instrumental to the success of the Patriots. It also explains why they seemed to have a good idea what was coming on many plays (if you don't dive into headset eavesdropping/spygate as the explanation). I think they did know what was coming but it was part of the preparation process for the team. If you see a guy do this watch for that which is normal film study stuff. I feel like the Pats did that but on another level from most teams.