really don't like anyone beyond Addison at that pick from this list (perhaps Harrison). Addison would be the pick for all the reasons you mentioned. He's ready to go Day 1 and is really another WR1. Great pick.
Harrison is okay, but I'd go with Wright over him. Given your simulation, I'd def want one of them here, however, if Addison is gone.
Mazi Smith: we are in win-now mode, Smith likely does not help much next year, or eventually in future years. But this does seem like the classic Bean over-reach..
Simpson: pass. LB is a hole, again, we need offensive playmakers. As you said, there is likely someone in the 2 or even later rounds. The guy we draft won't need to start.
Murphy: awful pick. Way too inconsistent.
Mayer: would be okay with this, but only if the WRs, and OTs are gone. He's a great run blocker and would enable Josh to have dump-off passes. But really, I'd prefer an IOL like Avila or Tippman here over a TE in a deep TE class.