Ronin

Why, Rex of course.

Good points. On analysis however, one has to know which analyses are relevant and which are not. That's the problem with these metrics departments on teams these days, they overthink things and use irrelevant, at least relatlively speaking, metrics/data/analyses.

That is correct. The range for 4th-down attempts runs from a high of 25 (Denver) to a low of 8 (Chargers). 29 teams rank between 23 and 12 attempts/game. That's on the magnitude of approximately 1/game. We had 18, converted 7.

We ranked 31st (of 32 that would be) in converting 4th downs. We were ahead of Rosen and Arizona. I'm not sure what "good decisions" means, but in terms off converting 4th downs, we sucked, royally. In other unfavorable news, we ranked 30th in Scoring %, that is the percentage of drives resulting in offensive scores. We ranked 29th in drives ending in offensive TOs. 28th in average number of plays/drive. 30th in average number of plays/drive. 26th in average time/drive 30th in average number of points/drive Let's hope so, but it's still a very hefty climb to merely average.

Lawson, another in a fairly lengthy string of 1st-round draft busts for us. He's a backup caliber player whose snap-count % has been around 40% over the past two seasons, an unreliable starter, and who's averaged 3 sacks and 4 TFL per season, and a player with no particular strength. I don't think that such production is difficult to get in rounds 3-5 of the draft. 9 players from last year's draft did it, one even being a 6th-rounder.

ROFLMAO LOL, not even an entire unit. At least he didn't have to settle for the Assistant to the Long-Snapper Coach role or that illustrious Quality Control Coach. After this stint he can become assistant manager at the team's foodservice facility. Hey Rob, you can always go get a normal job where people aren't grossly overpaid to fail miserably. I would imagine he can always squeeze a few bucks from the family food budget if times get tough.

LMAO No, I haven't. I get it, I really do. What's absolutely hilarious is that all those taking your opinion here for whatever reason cannot seem to mentally grasp the simplistic notion that IN THE OTHER HALF OF HIS THROWS WHEREBY HE WASN'T PRESSURED he still sucked. I just posted the very objective data from PFF on this, he was near DFL even when he wasn't pressured and ahead of ONLY Rosen. What is so complex that you don't grasp this? Can't grasp it. Your argument would make at least a shred of sense if when under no pressure Allen were average, or hell, even close to average. But he wasn't. He was near DFL. Dismissing poor play under circumstances that may cause it is one thing, but failing to prove that otherwise, as is clearly the case with Allen, measurably, is not overcome by the former. That's like dismissing the actions of a criminal by suggesting that he acted in self-defense but overlooking his voluntary rape and beatings of other people and saying that "otherwise he's a great guy." Honestly, why does this seem to elude so many people. Allen was a horrific passer last season other than in a tremendously scattered and situational basis. A guy that covered him from Pro Football Weekly said the following and he's spot on: More impressive, Allen does not need perfect conditions in order to summon arm strength. Allen has a flexible upper body and an absolute terror of a throwing motion. No matter the platform, Allen can rip the ball down the field with ease and deliver where many quarterbacks would fall short. The conundrum with Allen is that these flashes -- the moments of pure brilliance -- come so few and far between. Allen dazzles once or twice a game with a play that feels impossible, only to look like a late-round pick for the remainder of his appearance. The inconsistency in Allen's play was supposed to be addressed by staying in school for another season, but that did not prove to be the case. There is no comfort in betting on a quarterback prospect who does not consistently play to his skill set. That is so accurately stated, in college as well as in foresight for his rookie season. Interestingly that "arm strength" and "flexible upper body" didn't render him among the NCAA's best, but we're expecting that it'll make him the best in the NFL. Well, OK. I guess the people that penned the nfl.com profile, the walter profile, and the PFW guy, among others not mentioned, are "negative" about Allen. They see/saw the same exact things in Allen that I saw/see. I see some positives, but unfortunately not nearly enough to overcome all of those most critical negatives. How many times does it have to be stated the number of strong-armed QBs, some athletic some not, that come into the league among the top-10, often top few, and fail because their arm and athleticism don't cut it? And they came from collegiate programs whereby they played very well against very tough collegiate competition. Leinart and Young are two that come to mind. They were both at the pinnacle in college. Ironically perhaps too Ken Dorsey, Allen's mentor and QB coach. What's his resume? What's his record of success coaching NFL QBs in the passing Dept?

I've mentioned it before. It's funny, if I mention that a player's stat lines were overrated because of a few games people ridicule me talking about how I "remove games or circumstances" from his overall data. But here people essentially cite a single game, whether wittingly or unwittingly, as all but the sole evidence for Allens' improvement amidst 11 games otherwise that suggest differently. If you think that's a wise analytical approach, hey, who am I to argue. Not sure why you're having such a difficult personal time with it. As well, I pointed it out in context. Gone completely over your head is any notion of what those same averages for him were prior to that game. Here's a clue, through 15 weeks he was worse than Rosen. But hey, since he's going to play 16 games like he did vs. Miami in week 17, that's fantastic news. I'll look forward to him posting Mahomes like numbers in our division this season. That seems to be what I'm expected to believe. As for Allen's issues, I've said many times that there are 3 keys for him: 1) improve his play recognition/anticipation, 2) be more willing to take what the defense gives him, and 3) not rush his setup/delivery. That's fantastic. I see it somewhat differently not surprisingly. Those are pretty general assessments. I mean what does "improve his play recognition/anticipation" even mean? It sounds like buried in there somewhere are questions as to his ability to conduct both pre and post-snap reads. That's a pretty big impediment for someone that didn't even come close to mastering that in college, wouldn't you agree? Or do you see it differently? Also, as I've oft mentioned and haven't heard you work into your counter arguments, at Wyoming Allen was a man amongst boys to an extent. Do you think that distinction exists for him in the NFL? Factor in his athleticism to the n-th degree if you want to. As to "being more willing to take what the defense gives him," given that that, again, wasn't something he excelled at at Wyoming, with the obvious results, do you think that it'll be A, easy to teach him that in the NFL for Dorsey and the coaches, and B, something that he'll all of a sudden after never having done that improve upon quickly? ... a single season? two seasons? ... what? Put it all together and how would you go about coaching that in? I'll lay my take out yet again. I see the exact same things plaguing Allen that plagued him at Wyoming and were known negatives/weaknesses coming into the NFL. I'll cut and paste from nfl.com if you don't mind, ... again. Weaknesses Never had completion rate higher than 56 percent in either season as a starter Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet May have too much hero in his blood Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it Takes too many chances with low percentage throws Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short Field-reading is spotty Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver I removed one (1) relatively insignificant point that I thought wasn't a factor. Otherwise, I see all of those in Allen. And again, I also see that several of those things are more difficult, yea, bordering on the impossible, to coach into a player unless that player does it on his own. From walterfootball, another good draft site has the following negatives: Weaknesses: Has accuracy issues Ball security Decision-making needs to improve Throws too many interceptions Needs to improve ability to throw finesse throws Struggled against better teams Concerns about production and ability to be a clutch performer That "ball security" issue is among the keys. Kizer was doomed by his INTs. His INT% was 4.6. Allen's was 3.8 and ranked 32nd last year out of 33. Fitzpatrick was 33. All of those weaknesses still stand. It's a lot to correct for any coach/player. To think that he's going to overcome most of those when he never has, I'm not even sure what to say. So you can boil down his issues into three nice neat little bullet points, but they're a whole lot more pervasive and ubiquitous than that. Walterfootball's synopsis is excellent. Here are excerpts from it, I've highlighted some of the more relevant ones. In speaking with a few team sources, I said to them that Allen is more of a skill set than a quarterback at this point of his development, which they agreed with. They also thought my analogy of him being like a young pitcher called up to the big leagues who is more of a hard thrower than a pitcher was accurate. Allen has amazing physical tools that is close to the prototype of how any evaluator would draw up their ideal quarterback. He has a powerful right arm that can get the ball to any spot on the field. His cannon is able to push the ball vertically and stretch defenses downfield. In tight windows, Allen can fire a fastball that explodes out of his hand and cuts through a defense. He has a quick release and throws a tight spiral. His arm talent is legit. Aside from the powerful arm, Allen is a big body with excellent strength to shed tackles. Routinely, you would see plays of Allen using his stature and power to shove off defensive linemen and then using his feet to escape trouble. From there, he can throw well on the run, yet is also dangerous to run through the defense. On those plays, Allen looks like a young Ben Roethlisberger. Allen is a good athlete with running ability to get downfield. He will be a good running threat in the NFL to pick up some yardage with his feet. While scrambling, Allen has done a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield to find receivers who get open. (unfortunately he overemphasizes that, costing him in his overall and required game) Allen is hard to sack and shows real toughness in the pocket. There are a lot of points of development that Allen needs for the NFL. He has accuracy issues and can miss on throws that should be easy completions. His ball security and decision-making need a lot of work as well. He threw too many interceptions over the past few seasons. Improving his accuracy and decision-making are the critical points of emphasis. Allen could be better off working on those in practice with a redshirt year at the pro level. Being forced to play right away could be too big of a jump for him as he is coming from a non-Power 5 level of competition. Allen did not have a good supporting cast at Wyoming, so he may have to change his thinking for the NFL and not put everything on his on shoulders. Some team sources who are skeptical of Allen compare him to Kyle Boller as a quarterback with big-time triangle numbers plus athleticism and major arm strength. (There are a number of QBs that never lived up that fit this description, I've pointed them out in the past) They do have concerns about the lack of production against good opponents and not delivering clutch performances against better teams. Not every evaluator in the NFL is buying the excuse of a poor supporting cast, (I don't) and they think that there is some danger to Allen as a prospect. Allen helped alleviate some concerns with an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. He improved each day and showed an ability to throw well-placed touch passes. Allen is probably going to be a top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Where Allen goes in the NFL will have a big impact on if he pans out. He needs good coaching to develop his game and improve on his fundamentals. Whichever team views him as a future franchise quarterback and takes him in the first round will have to have good quarterback teachers in house to work with Allen. (is Dorsey that teacher? What is his resume as such? He was a great player in college, a bad player in the NFL, and from what I can tell is a blank slate in this role.) Anyway, the point is, that the known issues as a draftee were still present last season. Very few, if any, disappeared. It's a lot for any QB to correct, how much more so a QB that is trying to do it for the first time in the NFL.

Unfortunately I've never said that. Obviously he's had to scramble. Talk about moving the goal posts. But there are also more than ample examples, that you simply refuse to admit to, where he's got way more time than seasoned QBs use to throw outlet or other normal passes but where Allen, missing open receivers, does not do it. It's difficult to argue when you only choose the arguments of mine that fit your points while completely ignoring a wealth of material to it that Iv'e posted otherwise. That's the problem with forums, people come in halfway through a thread, read posts 6 and 7 of an exchange, and think that they're commenting intelligently. Look, it's really simple, we have differing opinions. I'm sorry that you're having difficulty getting on in life w/o me acknowledging that yours is the correct one. So I'll tell ya what, I'll look forward to Allen making enormous strides in becoming our franchise QB this fall with Brown, Beasley, and Knox as the premier additions to our passing game thereby raising the quality of our receivers immensely as the majority opinion is here and we'll all be happy.

That's one of Allen's major issues, he's always looking for a big-play so instead of taking what the D gives him by checking down and finding the open guys, he already seems to have laid out in his mind what he wants to, i.e. where he wants to go which results in risky plays, where he's among the worst in the NFL. If you haven't downloaded Allen's PFF 2018 review you should. In short however, here are a few key metrics worthy of note according to that analysis and review: Passer Rating: When Clean: 79.8. NFL avg. 103.1 Passer Rating: No Blitz: 70.1. NFL avg. 92.9 Passer Rating: Under Pressure - 47.4. NFL avg. 67.1 Passer Rating: Blitz - 62.9. NFL avg. 93.1 For comps, among the rookies, only Rosen was worse in every category. Darnold was worse only "under pressure." Most of their ratings were well above Allen's. Rosen's were 80.9, 68.6, 38.1, 60.7. Rosen was higher "when clean." He was only a couple points worse on "no blitz" and "blitz." It would be remiss not to realize that Allen's last game vs. Miami boosted his season stats in terms of averages in a major way. That one game "lifted" him to where he finished. Just sayin'.

Funny you say that, TB12 doesn't even become TB12 if Bledsoe doesn't get injured in '01. Seems to me he'd have just been the next in a string of day-3 QBs drafted by Belichick that would end up having left the team. I've said it many many times, it's not Belichick, not by a country mile and particularly with his completely unproven abilities to develop QBs as a coach, that recognized any particular ability in Brady and decided to replace Bledsoe. It took an injury to force his hand. Everyone talks about how great Belichick is right alongside of Brady being the GOAT, which I agree with, the latter that is. But having said that, one has to believe that Brady, aka the GOAT, is worth 3-4 wins/season. But if that's the case, how "good" would Belichick have been w/o Brady. (rhetorical) I mean to believe that he'd still have achieved all that he has w/ Bledsoe is laughable. Then subtract even just 3 wins/season from their win totals, while considering the division that they've been in with Bledsoe among the best QBs in the division since then and including over the QBs of all three other teams, and an entirely different picture of the Pats over the past two decades emerges. Ironically, many here will argue that in favor of Belichick. My position back then was that the Pats would never win a SB and only succeed in the playoffs despite Bledsoe. I said the same exact things, fully on public record, back when we signed him. That too was about as popular as my comments and analysis of Allen. FULLY agree with you on Allen. The guy is so damn easy to root for! He's got the intangibles down! Too, they are in fact all-in on him. He fails, they fail, it's that simple. Hope it works out, I'm simply far from convinced. It's largely also an indictment of their general/overall team-building methodology, which leaves me failing to see As you say, we'll see and in the meantime root for success.

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. I don't have time to go thru all 16 games, just for you. You'll excuse the above by saying that the "time" was all due to scrambling, which is BS. As I said, people, you included, will believe what you want to believe. I on the other hand always seek what's true regardless of what I'd like to be the case or see happen. And again, here, like others, you put words in my mouth. I've never said that Allen routinely, meaning throughout the season, had all day to throw. He had more than ample time and far more than the best, read franchise, QBs need to get the ball out in numerous games. Dont' know what to tell you. What I don't understand is why people get so upset. Fine, treat me like some kind of fool and move on. Hell, please, PLEASE, put me on ignore. But asking me repeatedly to post the same exact things over and over is insulting. And BTW, I'm on record as stating that Goff would be the only QB from his Draft to succeed as such in the NFL. So please, let's stop that comparison. Goff's collegiate accolades alone place him so far ahead of Allen coming in that to deny that is to prove one's ignorance on this entire topic. Are you familiar with the concept of denial?

Apples to oranges. Pretty simple. One can always roll out an exception, the question is whether the foundational premises for comparison are equal. Most people here just throw stuff out until stuff sticks and narratives (ergo mass opinions) are formed merely by repeating things often enough. I'm also probably not seeing those posts to be able to respond or address them. I've weeded out people that can't stick to simple discussion and put them on ignore. I don't care, their opinions don't interest me. Frankly, I wish they'd do the same to/for me. Nonetheless, point out a player that ascended to the status of a franchise QB and I'll explain why there's a difference if you want to. Unfortunately Mahomes, Wentz (who's frankly not a franchise QB yet), or Trubisky (the same), and w/ one season under him Mahomes will have to continue his success to be regarded as such, mind you, I fully anticipate that he will, just sayin'. Those are three that have been thrown out there and I've explained it. See, people see what they want to see, no more. You won't find anyone here that's done more research on any of the players that I've opined on then me, at least none that I've read. Very unfavorable fact, but hey, it is what it is. But if you want to continue this, name for me one player that never, and I do mean never, read defenses very well either in HS or college, went to the NFL, then learned to read Ds so effectively that he became a franchise QB? Keep in mind, a QB that perhaps "wasn't the best" at reading Ds is different. Allen doesn't nor has read them effectively at all, ever. So start there.

Yeah, pretty much. Which is why my strategy to support Allen, at this point anyway given all the "water under the dam" scenarios, is to have built up the OL around him way more than they have. He'll need "extra" protection. As I've said and as you've implied, if he is going to do it he'll need more than the usual amount of help. I don't see that they did that. But spot on, these historical indicators and frankly, fundamentals, typically don't improve for players at the NFL when throughout their lives otherwise they've typically been poor at them. I mean who would even think that it would occur like that. Granted, could happen for sake of discussion, but as I've mentioned and again, as you've implied, if it does Allen will indeed be in ground-breaking territory. Our teams seems to have taken quite a few such gambles in recent years, Spiller, Watkins, Manuel, Jones, and IMO now Oliver and Singletary to name a few. It's a "smarter-by-half" approach where our team seems to think they know better than a wealth of NFL history and proven metrics otherwise. Unfortunately as fans we're powerless to do anything but watch it unfold. McD and Beane seem to be trying to recreate the Panthers under Newton here, which to me is a sign of a sheer and utter lack of creativity and knowledge about the game. But hey what do I know. According to many here, not much.

And visa versa on the so-called improvement. As well, improvement is relative. To me, going from absolute historical crap to poor, while perhaps "improvement," is hardly something to hang one's hat on. As to rushing and rushing TDs, this just in, but Allen's (or any QB for that matter) rushing stats are not what are going to make him a franchise QB. The fact that anyone doesn't understand that makes me question their knowledge of the game.

See the above post. And yes, we are going over the same ground. But sorry, I simply don't see how games 11-15 can be considered a significant improvement. I will suggest this however, that the fact that you and others do may be part of the difference in our opinions and viewpoints on this. Just sayin'. What I see, even in games 11-15, is bottom-dwelling passing. In fact it is. So unless we're going to put all of the emphasis on that Miami game, again, I'd strongly suggest that we have entirely different standards for success at the QB position in the NFL. ... which is fine. Again, just sayin'. And frankly I think that's what we have here. Many that are counting on Allen to play the way that he did in one game, while others see the other 11 games as all but a complete disaster and question which Josh Allen will show up. I suppose it's possible that he'll play lights out ball all season like he did vs. Miami. I happen to think that much of that game was predicated upon a flat and apathetic Miami team showing up and I don't see our opponents meeting us like that for 16 games, but hey, maybe I'm wrong. No one seems to want to address Allen's horrific YPA and Adj. YPA tho either. I mean his YPA ranked 32nd of 33 ahead of only Rosen and his Adj. YPA the same. But he's got the strongest arm in the league, which I'm not even questioning, but then how does one explain and reconcile that? Naturally none of it has to do with him, yeah, I get that. LOL Anyway, enough for today. Have a good one.

Yes, quicker release, but again, amidst the other issues, so what. All these strengths simply didn't do much for Allen last year as he finished the season as among the bottom ranked passers. All we can do is try to explain it. Most here blame it on anyone but Allen. Again, that's not wise, but hey, everyone's entitled to an opinion regardless of how unsubstantiated and predicated upon false narratives it is. So we have a QB that can heave the ball out of the stadium, one with a quick release, but one that can't seem to find his way out of a wet paper bag in the short game, particularly in the Red Zone where was not merely poor but absymal when he didn't run it himself. Which one of those two characteristics do you think will trump the other in the long haul?

Thanks for the great and rational back-n-forth!!! I always lay out my thinking and "would have's" clearly here. Everyone knows, unmistakably, that I don't think that Oliver is going to meet expectations and that I think that Singletary has little more potential than other as a role-playing receiving back. If we're lucky we'll at a "Darren Sproles." But if that comes to pass I'll have everyone telling me that "oh sure, you knew" kinda thing when I've said it all along. It's somewhat comical. As to their strategy, all we can do is wait as you say so we'll see. I do think that we'll get a very clear picture this season however, more than good enough to predict the future as such. And frankly, circumstances aside, three seasons is a typical evaluation period for newbie GMs and coaches. Why should it be any different here. We all know that Beane & McD's futures hang on Allen tho. As to Jones, yes, most people were OK with Jones in the 2nd. That's my point. I provided all the info for people to see why it wasn't a good pick, just like I did with Spiller, Watkins, and a big number of other players over the years, and it was scoffed at and ignored. No worries, didn't bother me, just sayin'. You get from what you analyze from what you put in. I typically put in a few dozen hours of detailed analysis on our key (1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks), more than professsional draft analysts do. I mean who can spend that kind of time on a few hundred players, it would take years. I'll also digress on Hughes, but to start, he predates McBeane, so he doesn't factor in to the "strategy," whatever it is other than the fact that he's here. I don't know how you're measuring 1st or 2nd in the league last season, but he's averaged 5.5 sacks/season over his last five seasons, so not sure that's at the top. He's also averaged 10 TFLs over the past four seasons, same there. Last season he ranked in a 10-way tie for TFLs and he ranked in an 11-way tie for 38th in the league in sacks. I'm not sure that qualifies as #1 or 2. PFF has him rated as "Good", which is one spot above "above-average" and has only "high-quality" and "elite" above him. So yeah, he's good, but A, he's not McBeane's acquisition, and he's not great. 22 players like him at his level and we're set tho, so there's that. And LOL, nothing personal, but you say Murphy will finally be healthy, he's had injury issues throughout his career. So that may be temporary, hence many of my comments, eh. To the greater point, the risk that they assumed played out as such. As to addressing the OL and WRs next year, I'm struggling to understand why in three seasons they've drafted a mere one WR, one that hasn't anted up to his draft status, in the first 5 rounds, almost the same for OL-men given a talent-bereft OL. n Next year's gonna be too late. They should have had the OL around Allen now, he needs it now. I've harped on that over the past few months. Allen's issues are going to require "extra time" in the pocket, figure an extra second beyond what the best OLs provide. He has to work on those fundamentals, which on game days in the NFL really isn't the time to do that, but that's what he's going to have to do. I'm not sure that the team has set him up to succeed to whatever extent he will succeed. That's my biggest issue with their approach. Great, they signed the riskiest QB in last year's draft. Water under the dam. But now do everything that you can to try to help him succeed. But what do they do? Defense in round 1. Great, Ford in round 2. But a small-school RB that simply doens't have the speed to compete in the NFL in round 3, and also in round 3 another injury-prone player, a TE, that has never caught a TD before. Sure, they say "IF" he hadn't been injured he'd have been much better in college. No doubt to some extent, but then why couldn't he score a single TD in 18 games and on 39 receptions when he did play. Something's not lining up there, eh. Either way, yet another risky move that I don't think was in Allen's best interests. They clearly could have done better. Oliver, no matter what he does, won't help Allen any. I simply don't see them protecting their QB investment anywhere close to the extent that they should be. Allen's going to need extra help. They didn't do that. Waiting until next year to address those things will be too late. Even if they hit, it's going to take a half-season, as it always does, and at least the team seems to understand that by their comments on the development of the OL, to gel and develop the necessary chemistry on the OL. That's why I'm not as big on the Morse acquisition as others are. I like Morse, think he's good, but the chemistry diminishes if he's out, which will likely be the case. The fact that he's already hurt and there hasn't even been anything even resembling contact should be highly concerning.

Ya know, and that's the way you've gotta handle it. Why fans let that stuff ruin their day, week, life, relationships is beyond me.

OBD continues to provide the rain cloud. For all of my posting I don't even approach letting the Bills shape my emotional disposition like so many fans do. For me it's all about the analysis. The joy of that '90s team is a distant memory, albeit it a fantastic one! I'm still awaiting the day as back then, when we could go to or otherwise watch a game with the expectation of winning, not merely the hope of winning. Hopefully this will be the season that things turnaround, but we've been saying that for what, 20-some years now. Memories only do so much for the present.

I won't disagree with most of that. But I do disagree with the strategy used. I don't agree with drafting, at major draft pick expense and a slew of picks that could have rebuilt the OL last year so that 'we'd have some existing chemistry this year, for the riskiest and small school QB in the draft. We'll see, if their strategy works out we're all set. If not, as I've said, McD and Beane will be gone and we'll be hoping that Pegula "finally" hires a competent coach and GM, ... again. Given his/their history with the Bills and Sabres to date, I'm not sure I'd bet a whole lot on that happening, as we enter the criticial option and stadium issue years where we'll need all the help we can get. Of their risky small school picks Jones isn't long for the team. Allen's already facing an uphill battle. I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that Singletary will be anything but a role-playing receiving back. As to Oliver, he may be OK, but I fully expect that he's going to underachieve. He couldn't handle double-teams in college, so he clearly wont' handle them in the NFL. Man-to-man he was inconsistent, so not seeing why that should improve here, in the NFL either. At this point if he turns into an average DT I'd say we'll be fortunate. Anyway, nothing I or we can do about it but sit back and watch. I simply don't see any methodolgy to their approach. Last year it was trade up for Allen and rely upon a QB that everyone but McD knew wasn't going anywhere in this league. That alone raises questions. As to free agency, what are the big hurrahs? What, Lotulolei, Brown, Morse, Benjamin (at the time), Murphy, Beasley? Not impressed. Apart from all but one, the biggest underachieving one, being injury risks, none are much beyond marginally above-average as starters. Again, I would have stocked the WR and OL last year with our first five picks, also taken Edmunds at 12th. I would have waited until this year to draft a QB. I'd be a lot more comfortable with Lock.

You're using exceptions. I didn't say categorically about Clemson offensive SP players, I said typically. Spiller and Watkins are two that come to mind. Here's a list however; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=3&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=qb&pos[]=rb&pos[]=wr&pos[]=te&college_id=clemson&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default As you can see, over the past ten drafts, 6 Clemson offensive skill-position players have been drafted in rounds 1-3, five of them in round 1, four of them among the first 12 picks. Only 2 of the 6 have worked out. So yes, typically. You can always find exceptions, I pay little credence to exceptions in analyzing. I don't think anyone would spend the 7th overall, or even close, on Williams again seeing what they've seen. So there's that. Your assertion/implication that they didn't need Williams because they have Gordon and Allen is what's ridiculous. So with Hill and Hunt, why did Kelce have so many yards? Or how about Woods & Cooks with Gurley? Makes no sense. You always make full use of all of your options. It's a ridiculous proposition to assert otherwise. Same for Pitt and Smith-Shuster and Brown, or Minnesota and Thielen and Diggs. As to Jones, he wasn't in on the comparison. I think Jones' play, or lack thereof, speaks for itself. I merely entered him into the equation to show Williams has done relative to a WR that's also massively underachieved yet still w/o the expecations coming in. As to McCaffrey, doesn't matter, point being that they could have taken McCaffrey and done better, a RB. Doesn't say much for Williams, does it? Short answer, no, no it doesn't. Williams has played in 26 games and averaged fewer than 30 ypg receiving. McCaffrey's averaged over 47 ypg receiving in 32 games. And please, you're telling me that if SD had the opportunity right now to swap out McCaffrey for Williams that they wouldn't do it? Hell, I'd do that on McCaffrey's receiving alone. Doesn't say much for a wide receiver's numbers when a RB outperforms him, does it. In fact, 15 players, or half-a-round, from Williams' draft, have more receiving yards than he has. Of those 15, 7 are WRs, 4 are TEs, and the other 4 are RBs. Among them are five 3rds, two 4ths, and a 5th rounder. 20 players from that draft have more receptions than Williams. I figured that McCaffrey would be a Roger Craig type, good but not great rusher but also a great receiver OOTB, figuring that he'd settle in at ~ 1,600 or so in YFS. 800-1,000 (max) rushing and 600-700 receiving. He's been better than that, so while my estimation was semi-lofty he outperformed that. If we'd have gotten that from Spiller I'd have loved it. I've always maintained, for years, decades, that it's never worth taking a WR early in the draft, ever, much less trading up to get one. Good WRs in a league that makes it very easy to pass the ball are readily available in rounds 2 and 3 easily and often even later. I would never, under any circumstances, draft a WR in the top-10. I'd be hard pressed to draft one prior to the 15-20 range. There are too many positions, DE, OT, QB, MLB, OLB, CB, whereby there really is a huge delta in their level of talent, again, generally speaking from draft to draft. The draft, IMO and by my strategy, is all about marginal utility. If by waiting on a OT you drop from a shoe-in to a hopeful in order to get a WR whereby you can get a comparable WR with your next pick, you've gotta go for the OT. You'll get far better overall value in your draft. The problem is that GMs don't draft well, create for themselves a hole, whereby they "have to" draft a certain position for whatever reason. Like when Whaley had to reach for Watkins to justify his pick of Manuel. There was a conflict of interests there. Whaley's job security on one hand, team interests and team building on the other. The latter lost out. But that's what happens when you have nimrods in charge. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2000&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=3&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default Of the top 12 WRs drafted over the past 20 years, 8 were selected with picks ranging from 27th to 74th (midway thru the 3rd round) overall. The four exceptions are Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Julio Jones.

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game. 0:15: If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain. Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield. I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 0:27: If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down. Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury. 0:42: He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS. 1:33: Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away. The TO resulted in a Jets FG. 2:35: Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 2:57: On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT. 3:28: He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close. Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT. Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure. 3:48: Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside. 4:05: I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break. Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous. And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist. Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw. 7:50: A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3. 4:57: Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short. At his feet. 5:14: Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack. Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so. 5:35: Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is. He threw a lot of picks like that. 6:06: With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage. Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10. 6:26: Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones. 6:37: Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete. 7:37: Horrible play! Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him. Also wide open downfield is Foster. Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball. Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent. An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not. On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen. At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80. Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season. Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too. So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real.

No, I didn't miss it. I also didn't miss that Feliciano has been a backup for four seasons, has averaged 2 starts per season, at guard, not center. I also didn't miss that Spencer Long is rated as below-average by PFF. Which just oh, by the way, is worse than Bodine. Unlike you I haven't watched all 16 Redskin games while specifically paying attention to Long's play for purposes of determining something else. So yeah, not at all impressed. And if the strategy is to find a worse player to replace one whose play was inadequate, yes, you would be correct, I don't view that as much of a strategy.