Ronin

My original hunch of it not being more than half of that is correct. OK, since 2000, meaning since Williams took over followed by Mularkey, Jauron, and Gailey, under Donahoe, Levy, and Nix ... Of the 192 games they've played, 96 (exactly half) have been against teams with winning records. The Bills are 14-82 (.146) against those teams. 6 of those 14 wins were against teams that finished 9-7 10 of those 14 wins were against teams that finished 9-7 or 10-6 Only 4 of those wins were against teams that finished 11-5 or better. Of those 4 wins, one was against Indy in week 17 when they were playing scrubs led by Painter for half the game. Another was that 2003 win over the Pats 31-0 to start the season before losing to them by the same score in week 17 and finishing 6-10, and another was also over the Pats in 2011. Outside the division they were 5-47 (.096) against teams with winning records. They beat the 9-7 Seahawks in '04 and 9-7 Skins in '07, the 10-6 Chiefs in '05, and the 11-5 Bengals in '05 besides the aforementioned week 17 game vs. the Colts. Over those 12 years they're 23-51 (.311) in the divsion and 51-67 (.432) outside the division. They're 3-32 (.086) against teams outside the division that were 10-6 or better. Within the division they were 9-36 (.200) against teams with winning records. Against teams that were 6-10 or worse the Bills are 43-17 (.717) Against teams that were 4-12 or worse they were 24-5 (.828) FWIW

This is a great post mkg! It outlines much as you've said a mouthful here and synopsized much. I've highlighted the relevant parts in red. To your points in order: What's a crumujin? Did you mean a curmudgeon? As they say, your command of language tells other people about your intelligence level and other polemical attributes. "Seem", "seems," ... to whom? You? Because it doesn't necessarily seem like that to everyone by far. What do you expect other NFL people to say about one of their own? Here's a little exercise for you, go find the quotes of those same people or others like them saying that a similar hire was a poor one. This falls into the same category as Bill Walsh saying how Trent Edwards was the real deal and would be a great QB. How'd that work out? I can tell you that people here were foolishly even higher on Edwards as direct result of that quote than they are on Marrone now. File that one under who cares and irrelevant. If they're not good, if Marrone is not good, you and the others will be the ones talking about nuking OBD, not those that are more level headed. Once driven by emotion always driven by emotion. Wouldn't it be better to be more level headed as a fan, and insist from the team some competence in their decision making and then voting w/ your feet and wallet when they don't? It's the legion of fans exacxtly like you that give the team what it wants so that they don't have to be competent. So why should they care? Seriously, if everyone comes a running and jumping w/ every change, why should they actually care if they manage and run the team competently since they have what they want? Have you ever stepped back from your beer muscled viewpoint and thought about that for a moment? Have all the hope you want, none of us are trying to deny that, but forums should be for the open discussion of ideas. You and your types only want emotionaly hype and gibberish in here while disallowing any and all other discussion while labeling those that bring it as trolls. Please, someone create the Curmudgeon sub-forum here for those of us that don't see the team going 9-7 this year and winning the Super Bowl next. I think you're less than 1% of people that think that the team will not post a losing season this year much less a winning one at 9-7. Yet, you've personally decreed that any discussion to the contrary is taboo. Nice. A lot of things would be fun mgk. It would be fun to fly around the stadium on game days without an airplane or some kind of engine as the song goes, but file under ain't gonna happen. Meanwhile, to stick your fingers in your ears and put blinders on your eyes about any and all contraindications to anything you say is what, you consider to be intelligent?

A "postive tude" is one thing, trolling and criticizing anyone and everything that points out the realities is quite another, wouldn't you say? You rainbows and lolliopops people won't even allow anyone else to express any other non R&L opinions. Well pardon us if we want to actually see some evidence first, besides one bottom 10 O/D beating up its counterpart while declaring how good they're all going to be, again, before we start coming to conclusions that you and others have already prematurely decreed as facts! Think you and everyone else can do that? ... Apparently not. Meanwhile, in case you missed it, those of us with more realistic outlooks have seen the kind of song and dance that you're engaged in w/ the following people: GMs Donahoe (Particularly, remember how he was the one that "built the Steelers"?, now it's Whaley apparently) Levy Nix Head Coaches Williams Mularkey Jauron (again, particularly) Gailey (also w/ everyone ranting about his "open style" of offense blah, blah, blah) Have we not learned? I also think that it's quite telling when people seem to think that "turning around a program/team" means making it barely better than a .500 team in a weak conference while making something out of the newest bowl game in a system whereby 70 of 124 teams, 56%, which is more than the percentage of NBA or NHL teams make the playoffs, make some kind of bowl game whereby half of them or more are completely irrelevant except for the money. In essence, apparently those same people should be really excited if Marrone gets into the playoffs at 9-7 and loses in the Wild Card round every year. Again, unlike you, I'm not making any predictions as far as Marrone goes. But it's folly to ignore the odds of him doing all of the rainbows and lolllipops things that you and others insist that he's going to do w/o any evidence whatsoever that he's even capable at this level while completely ignoring the red flags involved. Meanwhile, to even approach discussion of those things in an objective and logical manner gets labeled as trolling here. As usual, what's needed is two forums, one for the intelligent and realistic, and one for the real trolls that dominate opinion here and disallow any other. ... and no, I don't expect this post to sink in, I expect you and all the other slap-happy overly euphoric fans to completely ignore it, have an emotional response to it, and then go bi-polar if/when it becomes evident that Marrone ain't cuttin' it as if you were down on the decision to hire him to begin with. Deja vu! I doubt it as well. Any new owner is going to likely get rid of the entire staff and FO, or most of them. I mean who in their right mind would keep Brandon? The only reason he's even in the role is because of his geographical upbringing and the fact that he can sell ice to all of the eskimoes here in the forum. The roster will stay the same tho obviously, plus/minus cuts etc. Yup, here it sure is. In fact you're a "troll" if you do. LOL Like I said, they need a separate forum for the realistic and those that aren't driven in life by their emotions instead of their brains. 33%? Sheeeet! I'l bet it's less than half of that. I'll run the numbers and get back to us ... AMEN brother!!! Especially since the only WR that's proven to be worth a **** is already injured.

I thought it was pretty clear.

LMAO Not as if some of us haven't been thru this drill before. The funny thing is that at some point like a stopped clock you too may be right. In the meantime you all seem to know that the continued poor or questionable decisions by the team are just going to happen to work out. I'll gladly make a deal, and despite the fact that I haven't predicted that Marrone will fail, and I'm sure others will join me, but if he does fail, all of you talking like you leave the forum permanently. If they don't, we will. What say ye? Somehow I don't see you taking me up on that.

Bullitsh. If Marrone & Co. fail like the others they'll fire some scapegoat, but you can bet it won't be Whaley or Brandon. Brandon shouldn't be there now, he's a joke in the role. Not sure why I should, I haven't predicted that he won't be successful. Talk about trolls.

He better start at least 5-16, because the confidence in him as a 1-16 starter next season will be half of what it should be if he doesn't get some reps and experience this season.

Yeah, well unfortunately for Brandon and the rest of the front office weenies he has about as much credibility as a crack ho at this point. Just shut up and have your team do it Russ! You've been talking for a decade and have been the most miserable team in the league over that stretch while hanging us out to dry based on the litany of all of your empty promises. Here's one, if you really believe it, then put your job on the line Russ!!! How about if he doesn't win you quit?

It's not about logic and reason in places like this. Consider, many of the same people here talked about how Kolb would revive his career here and how good he really was but "just didn't have a chance elsewhere," yet he's stinking up camp. You have to remember that people here typically don't want reality, they want to hear themselves talk and think that they're all right or they want to have their heads filled with thoughts of rainbows and lollipops constantly. The only time they acknowledge reality is when it can't possibly be ignored. Even then you'll have a few intellectual stragglers that continue to insist that the earth is flat.

He forgot a few ... 17. The home/season opener vs. the Pats will be rainbows and lollipops day at the Ralph. 18. Free hookers for the men at halftime. 19. Beautiful sunny weather in Buffalo, highs in the mid-70s in January when the Bills host the playoffs. Honestly, in one thread everyone here slams media and reporters, in the next they're one syllable shy of the word of god. He probably just got done smoking about a quarter ounce.

That's what anyone that cares should be hoping for. Expending a 16th overall draft pick on a player that isn't going to be playing on a team that has more holes than a hooker in a kaleidoscope is one of the dumbest things possible. We have to assume that that's correct for now. If not, oh well, we'll know many things soon enough. That theory makes more sense than anything, let's hope it's true.

http://profootballta...th-local-media/ This is not a good stigma for a new coach. I'm not commenting on this otherwise, PFT has done that. Just pointing it out. As to Mario, if this continues then he'll make the Dockery and Fitzpatrick signings look like genius moves.

LOL Barnett may have been miserable, but he led the team in tackles. And for as bad as you say he was I'm glad that you view Lawson, Scott, White, Hughes, Brown, Bradham, and Pough as better. Or the rookies. You don't see any humor there? Can you even confidently say which of the current players slotted as LBs will be starting in the LB spots? If you can then you know more than anyone else. I don't think they know one LB starter yet besides Bradham but only out of necessity. He's certainly not earned anything if we're going to talk about earning spots. Yeah, we haven't heard that one before or anything. At least we know who continues to support the elements of the team that continually lose or underperform the majority of the league. These threads make that pretty clear.

I'm just curious, how impressed are you going to be w Marrone if he starts Kolb for most of the season? I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I'm finding it difficult to believe that Manuel is going to "earn" the starting job via competition against a QB that's started with mediocre results. So many here are underestimating rookie QB struggles and extrapolating the play of what was easily a banner year for drafted QBs last season, an uncharacteristic one it can be added. On top of that many draft analysts said about Manuel that he's got some major things to work on in the NFL. You simply don't use a 16th overall to draft a guy that's gonna sit, it's stupid. He's a nice guy, everyone said that about him. Let's just hope he gets the starting nod. Who wants to see Kolb, besides maybe Marrone and Hackett.

Especially when the odds are against it. The point should be getting him playing time so that he can play better next season. Hence the contradiction in what the team says, "the future is now" and they'll play the QB that gives them the best chance of winning now, and a plan to bring it all together in the future. These things, if their words are honest, raise serious cause for concern on this coaching staff. They need to figure out what they want to do and quickly. Right now they say that they want to win now which would likely result in Kolb starting and playing most of the season, but which would run counter to the team's best interests going forward. The sad part is that Marrone is either lying thru his teeth or simply hasn't managed to grasp that easily graspable concept.

I didn't say week one, I've been saying by week 4 at minimum. He needs reps/games this season if the team expects to do anything w him next season, that's plain and simply all there is to it. Anything else and the risks are way to high. QB controversy, taking next season for him to learn the ropes is what this season should be. It's not as if we have to decide to make the playoffs or start a rookie QB. This is a no-brainer. I'm really not sure what that has to do with anything. The goal is to move forward. One of my favorite lines from a movie is from Death Race 2000, the original when the Italian driver rips off his rear view mirror and says "what's behind you makes no difference." It's the same here, what's behind us makes no difference now. None whatsoever other than perhaps attempting to shed an image of futility, but that has nothing to do w what's best now. That's ridiculous. With rare exceptions, Luck really, no other rookie QB is likely to outperform a veteran that's started in this league in that same season. I'm not sure you've thought that statement all the way thru. Few rookie QBs would ever start in their rookie seasons if that were the case. Even last year, Wilson in Seattle started over Flynn who'd never even played a season. The Skins started RGIII over no one really. The Colts had no one either. Anyway, you don't expend a 16th overall on a QB to have him sit due to "losing a competition" with a journeyman backup, you just don't. I can't believe that anyone even thinks like that most importantly the team/Marrone. It tells me he's not all that bright to be honest. And then what, at what point would you expect a novice or rookie QB to come in and outplay a vet that's been the starting QB? What, after Kolb predictably plays poorly? This is bordering on the silly. Who knows if he's terrible, maybe he's perfectly capable of putting up Pennington-like numbers, but would you be enthused with that? Maybe he does suck, but either way his ceiling is severely limited. Manuel's, if the same people are to be believed after they put all their faith in him, at least on paper, is not. And if so, or rather if the coaching staff is satisfied with that, then what was the point of not waiting until round 2 to try to draft Manuel and grabbing a player that really would help us win this season? There must have been 50 players that easily could have started for us in other critical positions. I'll name two, Arthur Brown and Alec Ogletree would have been huge this year in a LB corps that doesn't have one proven player on it right now. Both were available at 16th overall. It's pure idiocy to approach the draft one way (build for the future) but approach the season another (the future is now). But hey, that's the Buffalo Bills that we all know and love. No vision, no focused plan to bring things all together at one point in time, it's just one happy-go-lucky throw the balls in the air and see if they happen to land in a nicely formed pyramid kinda thing at OBD. That's the problem with this team, there seems to be no one driving the bus. .... or wait, I take that back, the one driving is Brandon whose job it is to paint the bus and make it look all pretty on the outside.

No. LB is our single biggest need as a unit. But if Lawson is the answer, I think we've answered our Whaley/coaching questions, don't you? You don't fill glaring needs by getting depth players. Here's one for you, why did they release Barnett? Seems to me he was by far and away the best LB. I know, I know, he didn't fit the scheme. I guess all of the other mediocre talent fits it better. The trend continues. You'd have an argument if they'd signed Ellerbe, Wheeler, or any other of a handful of solid starters that were FAs. Lawson is just more of what we've had. Lawson's barely getting starting money. He won't even be here in two more seasons despite his four year contract. It wouldn't surprise me if he's not here next season either

Anyone see this, just posted on PFT; http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/30/new-panthers-g-m-on-newton-now-its-time-to-win/ It talks about how Newton's had more success in his first two seasons of starting in the NFL than any other NFL QB. There are several things about this piece that are relevant. First, despite that the Panthers, with at worst about the same talent that the Bills have, still went only 6-10 and 7-9 in those two seasons. Second, the expectations are now a winning season as it will be for Marrone too in 2015 at the latest. Third, Newton started both seasons. If the team goes with Kolb then it will push Manuel's development back so that next year would be akin to a rebuilding year, or at least a year in which playoffs are not expected. Very few rookie QBs or second-year first-time starting QBs lead their team to the division title or playoffs. Some obvious exceptions are Brady, Kaepernick, Luck, RGIII, and Wilson as lightning seems to have struck in this way last season. But consider those teams, Seattle and SF have D's that we don't even come close to having. Luck was reportedly the most NFL-ready QB to ever have hit the NFL. Most need a season just to get acclimated. Those that do have very talented teams around them and some other favorable circumstances to assist them. Manuel didn't come into the league with the same stigma nor does he have the supporting casts of those teams. Looking at some of the other top QBs in the game today: Brees went 29 TDs/31 INTs in his first three seasons. Stafford went 19/21 in his first two. Matt Ryan had very average 16/11 and 22/14 seasons. Eli Manning's first five seasons were all relatively average or only slightly better than average. Flacco the same in his first two. Gotta get Manuel in there. There's no reason to tinker with Kolb. Whether or not they do this will be the first clue as to whether or not Marrone & Co. know wtf they're doing.

Lawson was brought here for one reason, he used to play with Mario at NC State. There is no other reason why he was selected. He's not a starter. The team is once again looking for lightning to strike twice. All we need now is to bring McCargo back for the full compliment of NC State's DL draftee's that year.

Yup, in today's NFL that's exactly right. Which is why Marrone needs to not even bother screwing around with Kolb and make sure that Manuel's in there before the October games begin. It's fine to not throw him to the wolves (Belichick in game 1) but very soon after that if he knows what's best for his future as an NFL coach he'll have Manuel in there. If Manuel "isn't ready," then the finger pointing at Whaley needs to then begin. It's BS to draft a player 16th overall in this day and age and sit him for a season or stick him into a bunch of irrelevant games in winter weather at the end of the season. This league has never been more set up to foster the passing game than it is today. I just hope that Marrone's talk about winning games now and playing the QB that gives us the best chance to win this year, a year that we'll be lucky to win 6 games, is just that, talk to keep the media off his back. Again, we'll know soon enough. Yeah, but remember how everyone cheered his arrival? What you say was known before we even traded for him, yet very few people picked up on it. The ones that did were castigated for it. And more recently, remember when everyone cited Bill Walsh re: Trent Edwards and that he'd be a great one? Everyone jumped on that bandwagon too. Talk is cheap and that's all we have this time of year and particularly w this set of coaches. Marrone has no NFL track record and only a record of mediocrity in four seasons in college featuring two losing seasons. I mean when a coach is cheered for a pair of .615 seasons, the equivalent of 10-6 wrapped around a 4-8 and 5-7 season what does that say. Hackett has no experience calling plays. Honestly, what did he actually, actually, do in NO? I've already cited Pettine's trend at calling the D, his D went downhill to below average in NY. Tell Marrone that, I'm not sure he agrees. In fact, if he's telling the truth he doesn't think so. He thinks that the future is now and we need to do whatever we can to win now. A good coach has a vision and knows what he wants to do. I think it's a real reach to suggest that your chances of "winning now" are better w a rookie QB than they are w a so-so vet. Yet, what's better for the future? Why the urgency in reaching for a QB that likely would have been around for the next two, possibly three or even four picks? If his vision is winning next season and positioning the team to make the playoffs next season, who honestly believes that the best choice is to start Kolb? Not to mention, suppose Kolb starts and plays OK, not top-10 but OK, let's say average. Clearly Manuel's going to have his struggles. According to Marrone's philosophy, the QB that will be best positioned to win then next season will clearly be Kolb since no first time starter is going anywhere in this league unless the team around him is solid everywhere, something that this team is clearly not blessed to be. So he'd have to start Kolb again next season and the second-guessing begins and Manuel, a 16th overall sits. OR, he comes in, has the obvious struggles, and eh voila, QB controversy. Words mean things and if Marrone isn't simply playing the media, then I'm not sure he's really thought things thru much less has that vision that the best coaches have. After that, draw whatever conclusions you want to.

Amen to that! LOL Of course. Let's see what you're saying in three years. Deja vu How do we know regarding Hackett? He never called plays in NO. Brees has done just fine without him. We don't really know yet, running an offense w the talent they had vice w what we have are two different things. As to Pettine, his defense slid while he was there. 1st to 3rd to 5th to 8th in yardage D, 1st to 6th to 20th to 20th in scoring D. I'm not saying that it's all his fault, but clearly some of it was, to argue contrarily is ridiculous. Also, Pettine did not call the plays all four years, why not? What did Ryan see to want to call it himself? These are all rose-colored glasses kinds of things. We should know more by the season's end, but this notion that the team conducted an exhaustive search as Brandon claims is disingenuous. Again, I'm not making any predictions one way or another, but there must have been 50 more qualified collegiate coaches at one level or another, many with far more relevant experience in college, and how many of them would have become good NFL coaches. I'm guessing if the answer is five then it's a lot. I'm not sold on Hackett at all. The best thing that we can say about these coaching hirings is that the team has learned not to hire proven losers or coaches that glaringly have faults. Again, the chances for any collegiate coach winning in the NFL are remote, particularly in their first few seasons. It can't be much better for college coaches that took their teams to relevant bowl games. Again, look at Saban. There's none better at college right now yet in Miami he sucked. We don't know, we simply don't know, which means it's even sillier to suggest that he's going to be good than it it is to suggest that he's not going to cut it at this level since the odds are so much more against him doing well than they are for him doing well. That's all there is to it. We should have a good idea come November, and if Kolb is starting by then, assuming that Manuel's healthy, then I think we have our answer already.

This whole thing about "reviving a Syracuse team" is massively overrated. Did those claiming that think that just maybe Greg Robinson was one of the worst coaches that SU ever had? Marrone wasn't better than Pasqualoni or MacPherson, not that either was anything close to Nick Saban, just sayin'. Since when does going .500 w/ two very minor bowl appearances featuring two of four losing seasons and only marginally winning ones after that with most wins primarily against nothing teams, particularly in the bowl games, and pretty much completely insignificant ones in their inaugural and third years, while playing in one of the least competitive football conferences in the FBS qualify as "reviving" anything? I'm not saying that Marrone's going to fail, but the odds are against him being this great coach that we all want. Right now his future is directly tied to Manuel. If Kolb starts the season then next year will end up being the rebuilding season that this season should be. But this talk about the future being now and winning now makes me think he's in over his head too. This team isn't going anywhere with Kolb at QB. There's not an objective fan in this forum that thinks that this team can even be .500 much less make the playoffs. Any talk of such merely indicates that either it's all made-for-media hot air or that he simply doesn't know what he's talking about. Time will tell, no need for us to predict what will happen, and we surely can't do anything about it, but this same level of enthusiasm existed for all of the aforementioned coaches except for Gailey although it was still positive there initially. If Manuel isn't starting soon this year then Marrone's shot himself in the foot. Even if Manuel does start, he's going to have to prove that he's good. If they have to draft another QB in '15 then Marrone's likely going to be finished on this team. This also precludes Wilson passing and Marrone making the cut of the new GM and owner but that's a different matter altogether and assumes that the team won't move too. Another great point. Whaley's been the #2 guy all along right behind Nix and now in his fourth season, so why has he gotten a pass from everyone in that way? Everyone talks about his big accolades in Pittsburgh when he was even more of an assistant, yet here over the last four seasons with more power and influence all of a sudden none of the bad decisions he had anything to do with. Whatever

Even if they did, I'd expect them to f' it up. Either way, the best thing that they could do is to not hire Bills fans for those roles. Too many conflicts of interest possibilities. You want the most objective people in place. As to the analytics, having them is one thing, knowing what to do w/ them is entirely another. It's hardly a lack of analytics that hasn't gotten a deal w/ Byrd done either. When you let Levitre walk "to be able to get a deal done w/ Byrd," and it doesn't happen, well, that screams volumes. Wilson's not long for this world, when he kicks let's see what happens to the team and if it even stays in B-lo.

LOL Your reference wasn't lost on everyone.

1 yard per attempt average is big. Top (1st) to Bottom (32nd) last year was only a 3.16 delta. RGIII was kind of unusual, but after him Peyton had a 7.99 and Jay Cutler in the middle of the stack had a 6.99 ypa. YPC is probably a better indicator, but that mirrors ypa pretty closely rankings wise. But in order to analyze this thoroughly one must consider that most passes thrown, estimating 90% or more, are relatively short to the receiver, say 15 yards or less. I'm sure the exact figure is somewhere accessible, but if you watch Brady, most of his throws are short ones or on the short side of the mid-range to be sure. Point being, one good completion 'til the receiver gets it," for say 30 yards, really doesn't make the average jump all that much, rendering a delta of "merely" 1 ypa/ypc very significant.