
Ronin
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A Look Back at the Stevie Johnson Trade
Ronin replied to FireChan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
For two 1st-round picks and a 4th he's a waste. But we cannot simply step over his injury issues or the fact that he shines at times and disappears at others with equal frequency. As I said, it wasn't the "second half" last season, it was the last six games. Three of which, including his two biggest, were losses. In his first six games he averaged just over 50 ypg with one huge game against the Fins. In the other 5 he averaged fewer than 34 ypg. Like I said, he shows up for a half dozen games and then the rest of the time no one knows he's there. Hell, sometimes he isn't as he missed three games entirely. People cite those three games but he played sparingly in a fourth too. That's 25% of games last season he wasn't even around. I expect that number to increase this season. Either way, if he can't pull himself together this season, the team seriously has to consider moving on and finding other options at WR. Right now we have one proven #1, Sammy. With him out it's going to be very interesting. I don't see Woods and whom, Hank, carrying this offense in the passing game. Clay is Clay until further notice, likely another one of Whaley's overhyped acquisitions. Again, Whaley needs to go, his moves are killing this organization. You really need to learn how to read. Seriously. If you want to take issue with things that I actually said, great. Otherwise, if you cannot comment on what I actually said contrasted with what I did not say, then I really don't want to discuss anything with you. Get it right or don't comment. Otherwise, Watkins wasn't drafted at the cost of two 1st-rounders and a 4th to merely be a starting WR. We were promised exceptionality, which clearly he has not delivered. No need to comment. Those are excuses my friend. Besides, what did you and everyone else say about Watkins, as if it were a given? Remember? He was supposed to merely "get the ball in his hands and he would take care of the rest," remember? Has that happened? Hardly. He's among the worst in his draft class in YAC and not good overall, meaning that that's far from the truth. Otherwise, who's been throwing to Hurns (a what, 7th rounder), Robinson, and Mike Evans the ball? How about Benjamin? Jordan Matthews? Jarvis Landry? You think those guys all have Pro Bowl QBs throwing to them? All were rookies/young/mediocre at best QBs. How come they can succeed to similar levels as Sammy? Most of them don't even start and even fewer are #1s on their teams. None have as many starts besides Evans. It's funny, you cite one other WR that has Eli and ignore the rest. -
A Look Back at the Stevie Johnson Trade
Ronin replied to FireChan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
He needs to start showing up more than five or six games a season while providing mediocre or poor production in the other 10 games. He wasn't heralded as an average NFL receiver, fools penciled him in for greatness before he ever even saw an NFL field. So far it hasn't worked out, the only ones that seem to think it has are Bills fans. All objective observers see reality, a WR on the cusp of irrelevancy because he can't stay healthy and a WR that's destined to play for several teams for the same reason, not to mention one whose consistency issues are a huge issue. If Sammy is going to be great, then no one should have to talk about it, it should be evident, but it isn't. Great WRs don't barely put up 1,000 yards while not showing up half the time, sorry, that's just the way it is. It'll clear up for everyone that can't see it this season, unfortunately. Maybe then, just maybe, we can move on from Whaley and his idiotic risk-taking and put someone in there that knows what to do and what not to do while trading away team favorites like FredEx, independently from anyone else in the front office, while clinging to a player like Manuel whom Whaley said "has the 'it' factor." Manuel has the "**it" factor alright. For that matter, so does Whaley. That's the one they traded to Philly for Bryce Brown, whom many here said would be our next greatest RB much like they're talking about how Sammy is great. -
A Look Back at the Stevie Johnson Trade
Ronin replied to FireChan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
What?! Watkins is a #1 receiver in about half a dozen games a season. In another three or four he's just one of a bunch. In the remaining 6 or 7 games he's not even a #3 WR. About half of his games he didn't even log 50 yards receiving. 17 of his 29 games he didn't score. Watkins has contributed no more than Stevie ever did. In fact, Stevie holds the record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Leave it for Whaley to make a trade that swaps out, IIRC, Bryce Brown for Stevie at the end of the day. One more of Whaley's idiotic moves that has contributed to destroying this team and putting in on track to set records for playoff futility that will never be broken. Meanwhile, everything points to the notion that Watkins has Jones' fracture, and quite frankly, regardless, who cares, he's not ready now, probably won't be 100% at any point this season and is more likely to miss games than to play all 16, again. Woods isn't a bona fide #1 WR and there isn't a WR on the roster currently that has even come close to proving that they can start in Watkins' absence, not one. If having Stevie would have "stunted Watkins' growth," then Watkins is useless. Frankly, if he doesn't start showing up for 16 games and doesn't start playing one game with almost nothing and only every third game like he was supposed to, he's pretty useless for the money too. Gotta play to be useful to the team. So far Sammy can't seem to even make it through a season w/o having injuries get the best of him. The move to trade a second 1st rounder and add a 4th on top of it was stupid, you never make a trade like that for a rookie WR. It hasn't worked out well for us and unless it does this season, the team had better start looking for Watkins' replacement for next season. One thing I'll say, this is going to be an entertaining season from the perspective of "how are they going to do it?" in the passing game. I don't see how they're going to prevent opponents from stacking the line, stuffing our run, and rendering our offense another one of Ryan's 20th ranked specialties. I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that this is the season in which Watkins steps up, plays all 16, and finally hits 1,500/10 like he should. In fact, I'd wager the opposite, that we're seeing yet the onset of the next season in which he's sporadically, at best, available, injured throughout the season, and once again will be fortunate to barely hit 1,000 yards. Stevie did all that and had a string of 1,000-yard seasons going while averaging 8 TDs/season until Whaley's idiocy brought in Manuel, a player that he still hasn't relinquished. Leave it to Whaley to arbitrarily get rid of players like Stevie and FredEx while clinging to Manuel as a lifeline and then having to trade away the farm in yet another futile effort to draft an injury project. The sooner Whaley is gone the sooner our chances for playoffs increase. And btw, how do you know that Sammy's going to be a superstar? What, are you mystical? Right now the trend is that he'll be bouncing around a few teams that are in dire need of an average starting WR because he can't stay healthy. And it's not like he's taking all these crazy hits or anything, this is mundane stuff that causes his injuries. The team cannot afford to exercise his 5th year option at that cost if he can't stay healthy and post more than five or six very good games per season while doing nothing in half the games. That's ridiculous to consider such a WR to be a future superstar when he can't even outperform numerous other WRs in his own draft class over two seasons or even on a season to season basis. -
NFL future power rankings: projecting the next 3 seasons
Ronin replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Two of 'em I got here. I have no idea where they are in the forum. Go find 'em. One was done by either Football Outsiders or PFW IIRC. You talk as if you're already aware of them, perhaps some homework besides just biased opinions without any facts whatsoever to sustain them might be a good idea to include instead of challenging me like this. Seriously tho, you can't look at our drafts since 2010 and figure out for yourself that perhaps they haven't been even average? Really? I mean really? I've already pointed out at least twice in this brief thread that for four 1st-rounders we have a bust, an injured rookie with no indications as to how good he'll actually be otherwise, and an injury-prone WR with unresolved issues, his biggest to date, heading into the preseason. Does this strike you as anything but in the lower end of how other teams drafted from 2012 thru 2015 using their four 1st-rounders, at least for teams that had all four? Hell, our 2nd rounders have been better, I've also pointed out how we've gotten almost nothing from our 3rds and later since 2010 when Whaley arrived to head up the Pro Personnel Dept. This is a waste of time. Go do some research, get your facts lined up, and then PM me and I'll meet you back here to discuss. Far too many people can't seem to distinguish between facts and opinions. Thank you! Seriously, what fool actually believes that we've drafted well since Whaley arrived much less since he's been the GM. Karlos Williams is also expected to be one of our big hurrahs this season and apparently it'll be half a miracle if he is even in shape by the time the season starts. If you ask me he's put himself on the roster bubble by being a slob. In other news he had two great games last year, both in his home state of Florida, alongside about a half-dozen crappy games, and people talk about him as if he's anything special. Again, wouldn't suprise me at all if he doesn't make the roster as a result of his lack of discipline. Just an isolated rant. -
NFL future power rankings: projecting the next 3 seasons
Ronin replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think you missed the context of the argument. Denver, despite how poorly Manning played, had him as a game-manager at least, which does have value. Brad Johnson (Tampa) & Trent Dilfer (Balt) are completely different. Either way, and again, the point raised was re: Tampa's (Johnson's) D, which was prolific, historically speaking. Denver's was not. 296 PA in the season hardly ranks among the top two historically and is well over 100 points more than Tampa's D and about 100 points more than Balt's D allowed. Denver also peaked in the playoffs. Both Tampa and Baltimore back then played that way all season long. OK, if you think that we've drafted well under Whaley you're completely ignoring several objective studies. As well, the only ones in the world that would possibly think that four 1st-rounders yielding Manuel, Watkins, and now an injured and who-knows-how-good Lawson are Bills homers. Not to mention the 4th in the deal for Watkins. Our 3rds and later have been well below average as well since Whaley's been here in any capacity in the lead role. Otherwise, if Watkins cannot stay healthy, as it now once again appears to be the case, and can't make it thru this season injury-free for the most part, not to mention doesn't put up much more than the 1,000-yards and average of 7.5 TDs he's put up, then he'll hardly be worth 5th-year option money. Thinking anything else is homeristic. Also, Watkins is among the least consistent top WRs in his draft class. For every great game he lays an egg. He's really gotta shed that and the other stuff in order to be worth much more than average money for a starting WR. 5th year option money's going to be much more than average starting WR money. So let's see him play all 32 games this and next season prior to declaring him as great as everyone says he is. In two seasons he has only 9 100-yard games, half of which are against our defensively weak divisional rivals, but in those same two seasons he has 14 games of fewer than 50 yards. That's hardly worth 5th-year extension money. Any opinion to the contrary is hype only at this point. No team in their right mind would pay that kind of money for a WR that posts four 100-yard games every season and can't stay healthy. We're not in our right minds so we probably will given how this team sells hype and not actual performance, so this isn't a statement on what will happen, it's a statement on if things don't change what should/shouldn't happen. This is why we are the Bills with both the longest current active and historical playoff-less stretches. And by-the-way, if you'll honestly recall, when Watkins was drafted the hype wasn't about how he needed a great QB to play well, no, to the contrary, it was "just get the ball in his hands and magic will happen." The fact of the matter is that his draft peers have played better with no better QB play, some even worse QB play, and he's got one of the lowest YAC averages of the best WRs in his draft class not to mention in the league overall, he's not good in YAC, which is why we drafted him. So if he's not doing what was expected, I don't know how anyone can possibly claim that he's as great as many in Buffalo seem to do. Elsewhere around the league, not in Buffalo that is, the word that's quietly being whispered pending yet another injury-laden season where he either doesn't play all the games or plays many of them injured, is "BUST." Frankly, if he can't stay off the injury report, and if he doesn't start doing a little more than 60 catches for 1,000 yards and 6 or 7 TDs, most of which come in five or six games against weaker opponents, then insofar as his hype goes, he will have been a bust. Great things were expected of him, so far he hasn't delivered. -
NFL future power rankings: projecting the next 3 seasons
Ronin replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
We had Polian then. Now we have Whaley. Whaley's last four 1st-round draft picks (and a 4th) were Manuel a bust, Watkins, grossly underachieving for several reasons and as injury-prone as they come and flirting with not even having the team exercise his 5th year option, and now an injured rookie Lawson whose biggest scout was one of his teammates at Clemson, not even someone on our staff. There is a difference there. Whaley might be suited to get coffee for Polian and his staff, ... might be. Polian knew how to put together a team, Whaley's still lucky to have a job in a high-level capacity in a front office much less as a GM. So does Trent Dilfer, but both of those teams had exceptional, historically that is, defenses. Better than the '85 Bears who had 198 PA. Baltimore had 195 PA and Tampa had 165. So yeah, post a D that allows fewer than 200 points and you'll likely win the SB with a mediocre offense. How many times has that happened in the NFL? I think that those are the only three teams to have done it. Unfortunately we're not close. We'll be well into the 20's before he figures it out given his propensity to hire people he likes instead of people that can get the job done. -
Let's hope so. Also from the article; He's also never had 700+ yards, never had more than 5 TDs, and never had more than 65 receptions. What we need is a WR capable of posting a 80-catch (minimum), 1,200 yard, 8+ TD season. Not sure Woods is that guy, particularly as a slot WR primarily. Hell, so far Sammy hasn't even proven that he can do that. Here's hoping, but I wouldn't put my money on it.
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When did tailgating start at Rich/the Ralph?
Ronin replied to Dave in Avon Lake now's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
LOL, the good ole days! I remember people would have 1.75 liter bottles of liquor, bota bags, etc. Again, as long as you didn't cause problems no one cared. People take the game way too seriously these days that problems are almost guaranteed with alcohol. It's a real shame. LOL Yeah, we went out there w/o tickets and scored a pair on the 50 about 20 rows off the field, surrounded by Niner ST holders. It was great, we razzed them and they razzed us in a very friendly fashion. It was hilarious after the game, Young played a great game for Niners but they lost. After the game the fans on the radio were talking about how he sucked and would never amount to anything. We were just laughing at it. All we could say was dang, he leads them to 31, not against some schlep team either, and they're ready to throw the guy under the bus. -
When did tailgating start at Rich/the Ralph?
Ronin replied to Dave in Avon Lake now's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
During the early '90s, the SB years, after games it wasn't uncommon to see Bruce, Talley, Hull or a number of other players over at the Tree. Who does it best is whomever does it right, doesn't really matter where you are. I've always thought that the open lots, the big gravel ones w/o parking lines were the best. During our heyday we went to see games in San Fran (the punt-less game), NE, and a couple of other places. Always hooked up with other Bills fans we found. But those two are open lots and a lot of fun. Contrast that with the Skins where unless you have a $100 parking pass you park about a mile away in corporate parking lots and take a shuttle, or walk, to the stadium. Tailgating there sucks. OK in Baltimore too but there IMO it's better to find a private parking lot for your tailgating. I remember the fires at Rich after games in the '90s, they were huge. People would bring pallets to burn, sometimes the stack of fodder was taller than us and you could feel the heat from 20' away easily. It was great because it was usually very cold. Sometimes we'd linger two or three hours after the game and then head over to Duff's or the Tree. It was comical. One time my buddy asks me where I'm going as he's holding most of a case of beer. (cans) I take off my Bills coat, stuff cans of beer into my sleeves, slung it over my shoulder, put a couple into each cargo pocket in my fatigues, and walked in with like 18 beers for us all. No one cared unless you got rip-roarin' drunk, which we didn't do. -
We were more talented on D last year and our D was below average. Unless Watkins hits the field at 100% in September our offense is going to regress regardless of any strides that Taylor makes. We have no bona fide starting WRs after Watkins. If he isn't there or is there hobbled then teams will stack the line and force us to win an uphill battle running the ball. If Watkins isn't there in September or significantly injured despite starting, and that doesn't change all season, I think we'll be hard pressed to win 4 games. I'd have drafted Treadwell in round one and Cody Whitehair in round 2, we've have been a whole helluva lot better off now. Lawson's going to be useless this season and Ragland, given 'Bama's LB pedigree, has an uphill battle to be an above average LB. Talk of any other draft picks being relevant is way way way to premature, particularly given Whaley's 3rd and later round draft history. The bottom line is that I disgree on how talented we are. IMO we're below average in talent. We're tight in some spots: LT, LG, C, DTs, but that's about it. OLBs can used upgrades, DEs are questionable after Hughes who's out of his element, historically, in Ryan's current scheme, we have a huge coverage hole in the middle of our back-7 with the ILBS and Ss. Offensively Shady's dicey too health wise with the hammy. No one proven after him. Our rookie hasn't played in two years, Karlos besides being grossly overweight can play vs. Miami but no other teams. We don't have a WR worthy of note after Watkins and Woods and the latter's hardly a starting caliber WR. QB, we'll see, but if we can get above average play there we'll be fortunate.
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Kent Hull should get an honorable mention too. For me though it's Steve Tasker. He was the most versatile player we've ever had. He's arguably the best special teams player of all-time NFL wide. 7 Pro Bowls. He specialized on punt/kick coverages, kick in particular and was exceptional at that. It's a very unheralded position w/o many stats to be able to establish greatness. He was able to contribute at very key times on offense as a WR too. In regular season play he had 51 receptions with 9 TDs, which is sick. He wasn't big at 5'9" and he wasn't the fastest which makes his contributions all that much more notable. Reminds me of Rob Ray in some ways except he was better in the NFL than Ray was in the NHL, but they had similar energy and were both momentum inducers.
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Police Shamelessly cite Terrorism in Patrolling Private Lots
Ronin replied to Fingon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Maybe it's the black eye that Buffalo took for things like this; http://www.inflexwetrust.com/2015/12/07/bills-fans-caught-having-sex-in-the-parking-lot/ If I were the county I wouldn't have been too pleased about that. It's shameful behavior, people behaving like animals. -
The Cavs-Bills comparisons have begun
Ronin replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Fun to think about, but this isn't some random thing. I don't follow baseball anymore but I have to think that the Pirates, Royals, and Jays, at least in the specified seasons, didn't merely succeed with random mediocre chumps that just managed to gel for those seasons only, I have to think that there was good management involved somewhere along the way. Cavs have championship talent whether they would have won or not. We do not on the Bills. We don't have championship coaching, we don't have championship QB play, we don't have a championship D. We don't even have a championship O where we pumped all of our money last year. This year we pumped all of our money into a D but if the results are similar then the D won't be much better anyway and it's already a 50/50 at best if it will be. Until our drafted players prove anything they're just like any other 2nd, 3rd, etc. round picks around the league. -
McKelvin tagged as Eagles top Corner
Ronin replied to buffalonian's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yeah, that's pretty much it, isn't it. LOL -
Rely? No, he doesn't. He relies on his passing. His rushing is gravy. As well, I was referring to last season. Did you do any homework on this topic? Doesn't seem so. He only had four games of 50+ yards rushing. Of those four, he threw 12 TDs in them. In 10 of his games, all wins, he had pretty lackluster and pedestrian rushing contributions averaging fewer than 26 rushing yards/game. I'm sure that in some of the games that he ran for a TD that they would have converted using the RBs or by passing otherwise. In most of those games those weren't the difference-maker anyway. If Newton's passing were on par with Taylor's then the Panthers wouldn't have been nearly as good as they were. They'd have likely been what they were in the seasons that Newton did in fact put up similar passing numbers as to what TT did last season as he has in the past. 2011: 21 TDs, 6-10 2012: 19 TDs, 7-9 2014: 18 TDs, 5-8-1 Your implication of being ridiculous just assisted in shooting down your very point. How's that feel? The point is that he had a passing game. Taylor's was below average. Newton's was among the best. Even if were true that Newton's rushing was the reason for their wins, Taylor's rushing wasn't the reason for ours. We were a .500 team. That was Taylor's win percentage in his best rushing games. Thought is exhausting. LOL Good and useful info requires some thought, both to assemble and synthesize it but also to read and consume it.
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This topic should be part of a greater broader discussion per what I've mentioned in the prior posts. Far too many people look at one slice of the team and draw up grand plans for the season. As formerly stated, the questions are whether or not it's wise to run Taylor that much, and what are the ramifications of his running on his passing. Anyone not looking at that bigger overall picture is missing the point entirely. This isn't about individual stats, or even singular rushing stats, it's about overall team performance and how TT's rushing fits in, or conversely doesn't fit in, and why he's even running to begin with. After the season the pop-mentality was that our OL play stunk relative to other teams in pass pro, but that was debunked and the real reason for TT's rushing came to the forefront, namely that he couldn't read the entire field and had a hesitancy to throw OTM. That's the bigger issue and more running from him won't compensate for that. As I mentioned, of the 6 QBs ahead of Fitzpatrick in rushing, one being Taylor, four of the other five all had exceptional passing seasons. The one that did not was Smith whose team had the 3rd ranked scoring D, which we didn't have close to. In short, we're not going to win games by running Taylor the way we have and without a top D and ability to pass well. It is somewhat conjecture, but it's also conjecture to suggest that Brady's not going to continue to play like he has at the age of 38. There is a basis for that conjecture. I don't see McCoy having that kind of season this year because there's nothing in our passing game that will challenge Ds and prevent them from stacking the line. What, teams are quaking at the thought of Woods and Hankerson burning them? I doubt it. Also, we have to consider that McCoy's dogging it sometimes. Philly fans warned us of this, I along with others at the time figured it was sour-grapes, but it seems as if he hasn't done his max to ensure that he's in top shape/condition and that this translate to the field during the regular season. As well, as others have mentioned, he's got a lot of tough mileage on him. I see both Taylor and McCoy seeing a whole lot of 7/8 man fronts this season until they prove that they can regularly beat them. That's not a recipe for a good season from a RB with only half a line. This team is far too reliant upon running the ball given that we don't have the kind of shutdown D that's required to do it regularly. This will become most evident when we get behind in games. I don't see us having the ability to come back much this season. We play a lot of teams that are likely going to be out in front of us at some point; Bengals, Steelers, Pats twice, Cards, Seahawks, Jags.
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You'd think that these guys could keep themselves in some kind of minimal condition during the offseason, especially when they're injury prone to begin with. Our injuries, apparently, haven't been worse than other teams, but when your top two offensive players are dicey and when you made no moves to bolster the offensive unit because you had so little vision to possibly foresee that if that were to happen, then I guess we deserve what we get. Even with Shady & Watkins healthy it's highly questionable to wha Since there were so few data points for w/o him it might be wise to list those games. He missed games 4, 5, 15, & 16. In week 4 against the Giants and their 24th ranked rushing D Taylor had 6 for 15 and Karlos had 18 for 40. Loss In week 5 against the Titans and their 18th ranked rushing D Taylor had 8 for 76 and five other players combined for 20 carries for 51 yards. Win In week 15 against the Cowboys and their 22nd ranked rushing D Taylor had 14 for 67, Gillislee had 9 for 93, and Karlos had 17 for 76. Win In week 16 against the Jets and their 2nd ranked rushing D Taylor had 10 for 51, Gillislee had 24 for 28, Karlos had 6 for 24, and Hogan and Dixon had 3 for 10 combined. Win The best of those teams was the Jets. With the exception of the Cowboys game we did nothing rushing except for Taylor averages aside. The defense played well in three of those games holding the Cowboys, Titans, and Jets to 6, 13, and 17 respectively. Tennessee and Dallas had the 28th and 31st ranked scoring offenses. The Jets' was a little better than average.
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It is heard, but the part of that equation that isn't considered is how those QBs played otherwise, as well as are those other QBs more suited to running the ball. Newton for example, he's 6'6"/260, TT's 6'0"/220. Newton also doesn't rely on his rushing to be good and win games, he had nearly twice as many passing TDs than TT did. We also have to separate scrambling from running the ball. TT had plenty of time in the pocket, but chose to run often. That's a lot different than Luck running the ball since he prefers not to run and doesn't have TT's physical skills in that way. Only 6 QBs ran for over 300 yards. The 7th was Fitzpatrick with 270, so that's probably a good spot to separate rushing from scrambling. And yes, I realize that there's a fine-line separating the two. Of the 6, Newton and TT are two, then there's Wilson, Smith, Rodgers, and Bortles. With the exception of Smith, the others are all prolific passers, or at least were last season, every one threw over 30 TDs. Smith had the 3rd ranked scoring D, something that we do not have. After Taylor's rushing contributions, we were 10th in rushing yards, near the top in YPC, and above average in rushing TD production. But the turd floating in the soup here is why did Taylor run the ball so much, 2nd in the league? Unlike with Newton it wasn't when plays broke down in an otherwise tops passing game, it was due to Taylor's own shortcomings in the passing dept. There's a huge difference. This is why we were ranked 28th in passing yards. When we stop to think that we ranked 6th in YPA, given our low passing production, that means that our short game needs work, and the short games include a good number of passes OTM where Taylor struggled. If our rushing ranking meant anything on its own, w/ or w/o TT's contribution, then we wouldn't have been 8-8 last season having only beaten mediocre and worse teams. It all comes down to how should we approach this season, which frankly should have been thought out in the months prior. Ryan (& Whaley implicitly) have now committed to not improving the passing game whatsoever besides just what TT can do on his own. We did not significantly bolster the rushing game via a prolific RB addition (which we don't need if Shady's healthy) or via the OL. Instead we poured all of our resources into essentially three players, one that won't even be a factor before the midpoint of the season and likely nothing significant beyond that, a second whose pedigree suggests another mediocre ILB, and a backup DT. So, given that, how are we going to move the ball? Get it into the end zone? Defense? What will the pass distribution look like on a team that has only two proven WRs, a low-end starter-third type and Watkins, whose perenial injury issues are well documented, and essentially nothing else significant? Will Taylor begin throwing OTM effectively? If he keeps running because he cannot read Ds or find WRs quickly enough, will he get injured? All open questions. What seems to underlie this discussion and debate is whether or not the rushing game can carry this team. Traditiopnally this has only happened with a strong D, and IMO there isn't much reason to think that our D is going to be any better than last season's D, perhaps even worse. That too is debatable, but I just don't see the reasons why it would improve other than based simply on unsubstantiated hype on draft picks, one of which, our biggest, has already removed himself from the equation.
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Good question! It's merely one method of parsing how the team actually performed. People love to superficially cite stats and other data and then run down the hall with their hair on fire. This is why QBs get the credit or criticism for winning or not winning. Let's face it, Dilfer was hardly the primary reason, or even close, as to why the Ravens won a SB. And Manning, for all the years he was in Indy, was hardly the reason why they couldn't get to much less win the SB at least as often as Brady. The four years that "Brady won the SB," he had the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 8th ranked scoring Defenses. Brady's had a top-10 scoring D in 9 of his 14 seasons. The Pats' D has averaged 8th in scoring. Manning's at Indy averaged nearly 16th. Just as a general example. The question isn't so much whether or not to remove TT's rushing stats, the questions are as such: A. Does it make sense to allow a relatively diminutive QB to run the ball often lest he get injured? Let's face it, TT doesn't have the stature of Newton. This is debatable btw. B. Does allowing TT to run the ball more compensate for the limitations in his passing game? Put another way, would it make more sense to work on his passing game to the extent that he polishes his passing and have him run less? I already answered the first in the post above, his rushing does not appear to make us more competitive, implicitly it merely seems to mask our inadequacies, among which are the limitations in TT's passing game. Apologists of TT rushing are going to be gung-ho on that topic until Taylor gets whacked by some charging LB and has his shoulder dislocated and Manuel has to come in. Then all of a sudden they'll see it the other way. Unfortunately that's what it takes for some people. C. Why does Taylor even need to run anyway? Unsubstantiated pop-opinion railed against our OL following last season citing that as the reason, but someone posted the statistical data subsequent to that to show that Taylor actually had above average time in the pocket. So again, why does Taylor need to run anyway? IMO part of that reason was the lack of premier receiving talent. Watkins is good but overrated, and hardly consistent, for whatever reasons, injury and whatnot being largely irrelevant, particularly as he enters his third season once again injured. Clearly a part of Taylor's issues were his lack of desire (or ability?) to throw OTM. They're working on that now, but can he correct that? We'll see, soon. Running your way to success can work if you have a top defense, but we didn't have that last season and there's nothing to suggest that we will this season. Otherwise, limitations in your passing game coupled with a mediocre D, regardless of how good your rushing game is, is not a recipe for success in today's NFL. Playing the law of averages, in approximately half of your games, considering that we're a very mediocre team, you'll likely be playing from behind at some point. If you're not capable of playing from behind, which is almost always via the pass, then your chances of winning are greatly diminished, anyone should agree with that. Shady's good, ... when healthy. He's already nursing a hammy. People talk as if Karlos is ready to step in and be a bell-cow RB, but he's far from that. People look at his overall stat line and think he's great but the reality is that much like Spiller except to a much lesser extent, it was formed on a very small number of games/data-points. On average Karlos was not good rushing. He was terrible against the Jets and NE, and as I'd mentioned had 25 carries for 80 yards and a 3.2 YPC in those four games. Having two lights-out games against Miami doesn't make up for four stinkers against the other two divisional teams and it hardly makes up for them, particularly since Miami's rushing D wasn't even good. Watkins is also questionable entering the season with highly questionable talent on the field if he can't be there at 100%. So how are we going to move the ball this season? Again, a debatable question. We can risk Taylor rushing a lot and therefore what many see as an imminent injury to him. Obviously we hope that Shady's hammy heals fully, but if it doesn't, it wouldn't be the first time in the history of the NFL that a hammy nagger was an issue for a starting RB. Even if Shady's healthy, what if our D doesn't improve, and I'm expecting it to regress, then what? Our ability to run won't make sense much of the time if we can't keep opponents off the boards. By last season's standards, we face 6 teams comparable to the 3 better than we were that we lost to last season, we face 7 teams of the type that we went .500 against last season, and we face only three low-end teams. If we apply the methods by which we won games last season to this season's schedule, and considering that we have fewer options in the passing game, huge questionmarks for injuries in our two top offensive players besides Taylor, a defense that will be hard-pressed to be equal to much less better than last season's D, the question is how are we going to win games this season? Taylor's rushing? His passing? Great D? Rushing? What combination of those? etc.
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Boy, you're a real barrel of laughs. First of all, try not approaching from an emotional standpoint and try reading thoroughly first. Some of what you just posted is flat out false. You are the one that said that removing Taylor made no difference, not me. I was arguing a point you and others have made. Now you're insisting that his contribution was relevant. Pick an argument and stick to it please. Otherwise this already modest waste of time becomes a grand waste of time. Otherwise, that thread that you cite, of your ingenious analytical work, is nothing but a cut and paste of last season's rushing stats, all-inclusive. Here are the facts, don't let them stand in the way of a good charade though. We had, as a team, 509 carries for 2,432 yards, and 19 rushing TDs. May as well throw those in too. Taylor had 104 carries for 568 yards and 4 rushing TDs. If we subtract the latter from the former, we are left with 405 carries for 1,864 yards and 15 rushing TDs. That's a fact based on what, 3rd or 4th grade math, not even high-level statistics or anything. That 1,864 yards slides right in behind the Jets who had 1,868 rushing yards and finished 10th, meaning that without Taylor's rushing contribution we would have finished 10th. Simple logic and again, 3rd/4th grade math in action. We wouldn't have finished 9th or better, nor 11th or worse, 10th, right between the Jets who had that 1,868 and the Bears who had 1,851. Either way, the argument that you implicitly contradicted specifically stated that removing Taylor from the rushing equation essentially makes no difference. 1st to 10th is a huge difference, especially when as I mentioned it puts us below Chicago and the Packers, two teams not exactly noted for running the ball well much less for having even average RBs much less better, although that's largely irrelevant. 1st to 10th is not. You cannot remove the rushing of QBs like Rodgers, Newton, Bortles, and Wilson because they had outstanding passing seasons. There's an enormous difference. If Taylor had also thrown for 30 TDs then we wouldn't be having this discussion either. Or, in the case of Alex Smith, if we actually had a bully on D and had the 3rd-ranked scoring D then too we wouldn't be having this discussion, but it's completely different for us than it is for them since Taylor uses his rushing to mask his passing shortcomings, not deliberately no doubt, but that's the way it plays out. This is where you need to brush up on your reading comprehension via some remedial help there. I never said either of those things. I specifically said that even w/o Taylor our YPC was up there. Even then, if you analyze that a little further, you'll note, per my comments on Karlos, that that YPC avg. was largely a direct result of the two lights-out games that he had against Miami. Other than that our YPC avg. drops to a only marginally above average 4.28. Don't get me wrong, it's great to have those games, but I'd rather see some consistency from Karlos instead of two great games against Miami, a very mediocre team, and four stenchers against the Jets and Pats combining for 25 carries for 80 yards and a 3.2 YPC. Wouldn't you? Any fan would it would seem unless beating a single team means more than having an overall solid season. As to your second commment, significantly more what? I don't recall ever commenting that "significantly more of anything" would result in any increased YPC. It certainly isn't in what you quoted of me. What I did say, or rather imply, was that we ran the ball, including Taylor, more than any other team in the league, so it stands to reason that we would be near the top in rushing yards, don't you think? Could also be why we finished 28th in passing yards and 19th in passing TDs. Again, in this shallow line of thinking this is something that you and every fan has to reason out for himself. To start, besides citing things that I never wrote, your logic and development of your arguments is horrible. Three of those 5 games where Taylor threw 30+ passes were against the Pats and Chiefs, two teams notably better than we were. Another was a road game against Philly against whom we allowed 23 offensive points. Also conveniently left out by you was that the Eagles game was Taylor's 4th best rushing total on the season. Here are some other stats that you leap-frogged over in your haste to run off with your agenda, the game in which Taylor had his highest rushing total, we lost, to a team no better than we were. Of the six games in which Taylor had his greatest number of rushing yards we were 3-3, of the 8 highest we were 4-4, same exact win percentage as our overall record. Yet, of the 6 games in which he had his lowest rushing yardage totals we were 4-2. Also, in those 6 games that you cited, we allowed 23, 24, 30, and 40 points in four of them. Hardly point allowances that win games. So instead of pinning it on Taylor's lack of rushing yards, which wasn't even the case, try incorporating other reasons as to why we may have lost. I will add this at this time, that in the NFL as a team you will undoubtedly be down at times and if you do not have a QB capable of coming back in those situations, particularly against average or better teams, something that Taylor simply did not do last season with even the remotest of regularlity, then you will likely never make the playoffs, of if you manage to get in, then you will not go far. So yes, it is true to an extent, at least to an arguable one, not this ridiculous slam-dunk argument based on superficial info that you build your argument around. The long and short of last season was that besides the Jets (10-6) and Texans (9-7), only the Texans of which made the playoffs by merit of a weak division there, we essentially beat average or worse teams and lost to average or good teams. Philly, the Giants, and Skins were hardly good but we lost to them, and we lost to the only three good teams on our schedule, NE twice and KC. The five games with TT's most attempts we lost. The six games with TT's least attempts, we won. But clearly rushing more wasn't the answer since he was all but a perfect .500 in games in which he ran the most, same as our overall record. Those are all facts, none of them are my or anyone else's opinions, pure data. Do with it what you want. I would suggest however that while TT had a semi-promising season, that if we want our team to progress, then it will have to come down to improvements in his passing, not more carries running the risks of injuries for him on a team with zero significant depth at QB and given the above. Seems to me that any truly objective person would view it the same. As well, our schedule is much tougher than the one we had last season, featuring teams that he simply has not shown the ability to beat, either on foot or in the air. Having said that I'm not sure how that's going to be possible with a depleted WR corp based on Ryan's "who needs offense anyway" approach. If Watkins struggles to be 100% Taylor's in a world of hurt. Besides Hank there isn't a WR on our roster that's capable of being a #1 WR after Woods, who's low-end there if at all to start. And Hank's a longshot too, his collegiate abilities simply haven't translated to the NFL. I hope this is his year, but I wouldn't bet on it. He hasn't been able to nail down a starting spot in four seasons, and last season he was waived by two teams, both with excellent QBs, before landing with us. So again, he's a longshot. We should have drafted Treadwell, who would have been a perfect compliment to Taylor and his limitations from last season. Obviously on a Ryan led team we can't have that though. Gotta build that roster with A++ talent on D just to get A- defensive results I guess. Point being, that's all but impossible to assemble that kind of talent, particularly with someone like Whaley running the show.
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I know a lot of people here think that Karlos is the man, but he was horribly inconsistent last season and hasn't proven that he can be relied upon to be the 1st-string RB. Sure, he had a pair of lights-out games rushing in his home state of Florida against the Fins, but otherwise he had a very pedestrian 4.1 ypc and really wasn't very good. He was flat out awful against the Jets and Pats in those four games and against KC and the Giants. Nowhere close to good in those games. He was good in very limited action as a role player vs. Washington and Indy, and otherwise had a decent game against Dallas. So the data points for Karlos being as great as many people here seem to believe come down to those three games against the Fins and Dallas, both of whom had rushing Ds ranked in the 20s. It's early in his career, he can become better and more consistent, but right now he's not ready to carry the torch for us at RB. Besides, Shady has over a month to heal before training camp. If he goes easy 'til then he should be fine. Way too premature to be worried about him. Watkins is the worry. LOL It is true to an extent. We would have finished 10th behind the Jets after Taylor's 568 rushing yards are removed, and just ahead of the Bears & Packers, not two teams known for their rushing. We were still up there in YPC, but we also had the second fewest pass attempts in the league and the second most rushing attempts, we were easily the team that ran the highest percentage of the time, which skews that data. Did it help us win? ... over say throwing more with an effective QB? You can decide that. I don't think it did. I think that better pass/run balance would be good. The only team that ran the ball more than we did had the 6th-ranked scoring D in the league with an even greater dose from their QB.
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No talent? Really? Did you research this? Pre-Nix was 2009, right? Fred Jackson in his prime. Lynch. Owens. Evans. Reed as a third, better than anything we have now. Fitzpatrick was our QB, leaps better than Manuel who Whaley hand-picked because he had the "If Factor." Defensively we had Kyle Williams in his prime, Schobel, Kelsay, McGee, Byrd who had a phenominal season, Whitner and Wilson who were no worse than the below average Ss we have now. I think an argument can be made that we had comparable talent if not slightly better. I'll take FredEx at 28 over Shady any day of the week, with Lynch too? Wow.
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I'm with you but even more so. I see full bore nepotism here. Pegula loves Brandon most of all, and Brandon's buddies with Whaley. I don't ever see the decision to fire Whaley coming from Brandon, who essentially hired him. Who knows with Ryan, but when you talk like he does, it makes the fall much greater if/when you don't deliver. I see 6-10 as a ceiling so far pending developments. The D won't have more talent despite opinions that it may. The losses equal the gains and that's if Ragland and Washington both work out on D to the extent that the team has touted. Odds of that happening, on any team, are well below 50/50. We lost Bradham (so-so loss), McKelvin (not much of a loss IMO), and Mario (bigger loss than most think IMO). Kyle Williams' status is uncertain as is Watkins'. Lawson's unlikely to be a factor given the nature of the situation, even when he returns. Offensively, if Watkins' can't take the field at 100% all season, where's the passing production going to come from. It's easy to point at third-rate players and suggest that they'll be the next "diamond in the rough," but the odds are drastically against that occurring. That all assumes that after the "knowns" that nothing else will go wrong. This season can easily go 2-14 if Taylor goes down early or in preaseason for example. Jones is and my never be ready to play QB in the NFL and we know what Manuel brings. There's way too much that needs to go perfectly right simply for this to be a .500 team again, including Ryan's D with all of the key new talent being rookies that will be asked to learn one of the most, if not the most outright, complex defensive systems in the league. IMO we would have made much better gains in Ws by drafting Treadwell in round 1, Whitehair in round 2, and Prescott in round 3 going offense instead of defense. We could have signed an Alabama LB in free agency, essentially a clone of Ragland, for very reasonable in Rolando McClain who had even higher draft reviews. Of course you do. Think again tho, and instead of merely answering with snide emotional comments, try some actual argumentation. Might do your mind some good. Posts such as yours above add nothing to anything except trolling type flaming.
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Why whining? Try reading at face value and assessing the OP that way. Did the logic of the situation elude you? It's not complicated. There's a widely held, as in majority, belief that Whaley & Ryan are gone after the season if they don't make the playoffs. (fact) Whaley was just extended. (fact) The widely held, again, majority, belief is that Whaley was given the 3-year extension to put him and Ryan on the same "timeline" so that they'll have no excuse to not work together. (fact, that belief is a fact whether or not the basis for the belief is or not. Frankly, that makes no sense to me to give a 3-year extension with the possibility of paying out before the first year of it ever even gets off the ground.) Ryan has just denied all that. (fact) Clearly someone's not telling the truth. Either those espousing it all, or Ryan. That's simple logic and therefore, ... fact. Not sure where the whining is. I see lots of whining over the OP tho.
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Well, we've seen what Whaley can do. He can turn four 1st-rounders and a 4th into a bust QB, an injury-prone underachieving WR that never lived up to Whaley's promises or even came close to date, with yet another critical injury threatening his performance this season, and a DE that won't even see the field for at least half of his rookie season and will be facing an uphill battle to be even average upon his return. I've seen enough. Ryan, LOL, we saw him take a top D and turn it into an average D, and if he does what he did in NY that'll plummet to well below average this season. Let me ask you, suppose that happens, suppose our D does plummet further, will you still want continuity like that? Someone's lying, either Pegula and the rumor starters, and if Rex is lying, then he just turned Pegula into a liar. Not sure how any one of the above options can sit well with fans. Nothin' but lies comin' out of OBD these days. Also, why do the majority of people then, both media and fans, insist that there's this ultimatum? That was more my point anyway.