Ronin

Here's the thing John, and I'm seriously not trying to be snotty or anything, but there is data, stats out there, that reveal exactly where/when/etc. his catches have come. We don't have to watch or subject ourselves to a semi-subjective "eye test," we can go and directly look at the numbers and data to find out. I don't even remember which of numerous sites I went to to look that up. Yeah, I get it, stats don't always tell the whole story, but they tell a whole lot of it. What's left is reconciliations between the "eye test" and the actual results. That's where sound analysis comes into play. Either way, Jones is going to finish the season with around 600 yards, on a team starving for WR talent. He's currently ranked 183rd league-wide in catch-%, something that he's struggled with since he came to the NFL. And that's with an enormous boost from his 183rd status (out of 200) up from 210th (out of 212) last season. He's got zero 100-yard games. Only 1 game over 70 yards, and a mere 5 games greater than 55 yards. I mean who honestly thinks that those are starting, meaning #1 or #2, WR numbers? If he were on the Jets, Fins, or Pats would everyone here be arguing the same? Heck, people don't give Hogan the same credit despite much better numbers and a far greater impact. He also ranks tied for 192nd in YAC. Here are some of his weaknesses from his draft profile, maybe McBeane should have paid a little bit more attention to them, particularly that 4th one, since they typically doom WRs entering the NFL. WEAKNESSES Play speed is very average. Lacks vertical push to force cornerbacks to open and run early and doesn't have second gear to separate from coverage down the field. Thin frame. Struggles to find clean releases against press coverage due to play strength and foot quickness. High-volume production helped by high percentage of short throws and wide receiver screens. Sticky out of breaks and unable to shake tight coverage. Limited amount of burst and wiggle after the catch and won't create much more than is there. Sound/look familiar?

You sure about that? I'm not, the stats suggest otherwise as to drops overall. If it's merely deep-throws you're talking about, can't say, haven't seen splits like that. What's the link, dying to find a site that breaks it out like that. Otherwise, you've nailed my primary point about Allen tho, that franchise QBs DO NOT have as their core and sole strength a deep-game. Isn't this obvious to everyone that has watched football for more than few years? Also, his draft profiles speak to that. Lastly, I'm not sure how anyone merely "watching Allen" knows that he's had more deep passes dropped than any of his draft peers unless they've watched all those QBs too, and hand-counted them all. Did you do that? Or are you operating on the notion that only Buffalo's WRs have drops, seemingly like so many others? Not even sure how that's possible without consulting the data/stats on the subject. Again, highly interested in the link for dropped passes broken out by distance. Haven't found one yet. You've got me drooling over getting that one! Here's the kicker tho, every one of Allen's draft peers, including Jackson, is notably better at passing in the short-medium game, which means in the red zone since there is no more deep game down there, right? Since every franchise QB in the modern NFL must have that short-medium game strength, well, I'm sure you can connect the two dots yourself.

Good question, why don't you look them up, do the math, and get back. I do know that they're all below average, so not sure it's really going to be defining epiphany.

Well, OK, think what you want. It wasn't intended that way and I don't think that if you reread it objectively you'd say that it was. I do my best to stick to facts and data and leave unfounded opinions out of my posts. I think that most forum dwellers, A, have a thin skin, and B, throw out stuff like "he passes the eye test" without citing any factual or objective data as if merely watching someone that otherwise offers mediocre to bottom-dwelling performance somehow trumps any facts of the matter. And before you get all worked up, no, I'm not referring to you, I'm referring to plurality of people that frequent message board forums generally speaking. I can't say whether you fit the bill or not. Either way, sorry you felt that way, it was not my intention. I will comment on your statement, "I believe much of that is due to surrounding talent and a rookie qb who is still learning to read NFL defenses." Here's what I believe on that specific topic; that Allen wasn't good in college in reading defenses. Why do I believe that? Because it was listed as a weakness in just about every (never say never/every) draft profile written on him. I also witnessed it personally in reviewing numerous games of his while at Wyoming, particularlly against the teams that had defenders likely to advance to the next level, aka the NFL. So if he learns to do it in the NFL, it'll be a first, right? I'n not sure I like those odds, particularly given that he's struggling in a big way with that right now. Then, "No doubt, Allen has to improve. I think it is likely he will and you don't. I am not an analytics guy and maybe your pessimism will prove correct." I'll only briefly comment on the fact that you just stated that my response was "pithy and dismissive," without citing anything specific, but here you use the word "pessimism" followed by a contrast in how you define our beliefs. Frankly, IMO that's condescending. I'll move on now. As to your comment, here's another angle for you to consider; perhaps I think it's "unlikely" for the simple reason that if he does it he'll be bucking some tremendous odds stacked against him. So in that sense, and coupled with my having done way more research and analysis on Allen than I've seen even most draft "experts" conduct, my personal analysis has me aligning with those very odds. I distinctly recall last year when the team drafted Peterman, the team decried that he was a fifth-round steal and really "shoulda been a 2nd or 3rd rounder," etc., same tripe we've been spoon-fed for years. My anaysis on Peterman was that he wasn't even as good as a bunch of undrafted QBs and I laughed at the notion that he would ever amount to anything. I was called pessimistic then too. Same drill. The difference is that Allen obviously has a world of skills that Peterman simply doesn't possess. But he still does not posses the essential skills that ALL franchise QBs do. In short, pessimism has nothing to do with it. Frankly, I'm hoping that allen turns out to be the next Brady. Not sure how someone that thinks like that could possibly be pessimistic. I'm simply aware of a wealth of NFL history and realize that simply because he's a Bill doesn't meant that his chances for doing something that's highly unlikley are greater in the same way that Vinny in My Cousin Vinny asks "how could it take you five minutes to cook your grits when it takes the entire grit-eating world 20 minutes?" He says "I don't know, I'm a fast cook I guess," which is the equivalent in that movie to the "passes the eye test" here. So while that would be my hope, I wouldn't bet 20 bucks that it will happen. Hope is meaningless in assessing talent. I'd say this, if Allen were on a different team would your take be the same? Would everyon's take here be the same? I think not. In fact, Lamar Jackson's season is going very similarly to Allen's, except that the Ravens are winning with him at QB. His RB talent isn't even what we have, his WRs aren't much better. Both of their leading WRs are on their 2nd and 3rd teams so soon in their relatively brief careers. Most people here will insist that we have a #1/2 D in the league although I discount that significantly, but either way, as long as we're using popular opinion to craft realities. So the circumstances are similar, yet the schtick on Jackson is far different than it is for Allen despite the fact that Jackson's efficiencies are much better. He has a 2/1 TD/INT ratio to Allen's 2/3. He's much better in the red zone and in the short-medium game otherwise. And more. Yet no one's talking about him like they are about Allen. Why not? In fact, it's to the contrary. They're saying the same things about Jackson that I'm saying about Allen, again, despite the fact that Jackson's overall efficiencies are significantly better than Allen's. How is that? Couldn't it simply be that Allen is just charismatic and exciting to watch despite the fact that he rarely gets the job done, and at a lesser rate than a QB that's taking far more criticism while doing it better? Enjoy the game today and Happy New Year!

Well, just because someone is a "hot" candidate for something doesn't make them good. At last check we currently possess the 31st ranked yardage as well as scoring offense as well as in passing offense. The only thing separating our offense from Arizona's is Allen's rushing performance. So I'm of the opinion let 'em have at Daboll. He's got no significant track record of success anywhere, the hoopla on him is mindboggling. His only success was spot duty at Alabama, a team with so much more talent than any other in the NCAA besides perhaps Clemson, and no one's ever going to give the credit for Tua Tagavaloa's development to Daboll. Otherwise, Trubiskly didn't/doesn't have the same hindrances coming into the NFL so that's not an apples-to-apples comp. In fact, here's some of his draft-profile write-up from nfl.com; Trubisky: Quick through his progressions Makes the standard "pitch and catch" throws with consistent accuracy. His 62.1 completion percentage on intermediate throws easily outpaces the top quarterbacks in this draft. Calm field general. Very good pocket mobility. Can slide around circumference of the pocket without having to drop his eyes from their task. Locates safeties and reads their intentions immediately after the snap. What people don't realize is that that last one is directly tied to the short-medium game, so when we see that a QB has a low compl. % it's typically for that reason, which actually magnifies, not mitigates, the issues with that QB's short-medium game. Also, Despite playing in a spread-based offense, he's a full-field reader who does a very good job of getting an early read on the safeties before crafting his course of action. Now if we contrast that with Allen, also using nfl.com's profile; Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet Field-reading is spotty Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it Takes too many chances with low percentage throws Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short I mean we're talking about two different QBs here. Also, don't forget to factor in that Trubisky played in the ACC against primarily power-5 competition. He had some very good games against some very good P5 defenses. Allen played 3 games against P5 competition and was miserable doing so, so miserable that he was worse that all of the undrafted QBs in doing so. He played against Nebrask, Iowa, and Oregon St. I think was the last one. None had phenominal D's or anything either. Allen had 1 TD and like 11 TOs or something. And even so, Trubisky's not great, some criticize him even. He's probably about at Tannehill level now and far from a proven franchise QB. As you said, time will tell, but honestly, I think we'll largely know the career trajectory next season sometime. Allen's shortcomings are very difficult to coach up/in. Those are things that he'll have to work thru, but he wasn't good at it at the collegiate level against inferior competition, so what are the odds that he'll do it in the NFL? Just sayin'. Yeah, maybe he'll shatter those odds, we'll see. But if he does it'll have been an uphill battle and he'll have done exactly that, shatter the odds. More often than not odds don't get shattered, right?

I didn't actually. I simply knew his collegiate track record as part of my draft analysis. The team's "experts"would have been well-served to have done the same. My statement that you refer to was predicated ENTIRELY on this season's splits. Why do i have to comment on posts like yours? Did you even bother to look at much less analyze them? Sounds kind of like the people I was just referring to. In other news, Zay presently, thru 15 games that us, ranks 183rd league-wide in catch %. Sound like a solid #2 to you? Scratch that, of course it does.

No he won't. He'll always be a depth option. His predecessor from East Carolina was so much more prolific than he was, better scoring, far more reliable when games were actually still in play or on the line, better overall numbers over four years, not merely in one season as a garbage-time specialist in a spread offense often featuring 5 WRs. Justin Hardy is that player, he's on Atlanta with Ryan throwing him the ball, a team that until they drafted Ridley hasn't had a reliable #2 while Hardy's been on the team. Let's face it, schools of that caliber rarely field top players in the NFL.

Actually, I provided quite a few facts and data that are consistent with the historical success of franchise QBs, Very consistent. The post that I cited is pretty much entirely opinion without any factual information or data, apart from the semi-factual notion that Allen's red zone performance also involves his rushing, and at least implies the danger/risks therein. But again, I didn't read ANYTHING upon drafting Allen as to how the team was going to expect his primary contribution to be running the ball. Neither did you if you're going to be honest here. They drafted him for his "strong-arm" and because he was "their guy." At some point, A, that rushing is going to be stopped by opponents, B, he's going to get himself seriously injured, there have already been a few hits that were concerning, but C, and most importantly, he'll never achieve franchise QB status based upon his rushing. That's just the way it is. Now I don't know, perhaps he'll "reinvent" the game and bring back the days of yore of rushing QBs that lead their teams running the ball, but I don't see that happening in the modern NFL, do you? I didn't think so. Allen's career is going to be a short one in today's NFL if he's going to post 135 carries every season, the pace that he's on over the past five games. Argue as you may. Hence, we must turn to his passing game in order to determine how good he'll be. Progress on the season aside, and I've used only his last five games in my analyses (did you realize that?), he's still bottom-dwelling. So I'm not sure what point you're attempting to make, but if it's that the indicators currently are the he'll be fine, you're quite incorrect. It is a valuable assessment tool, but the people taking issue with it approach it as if PFF deliberately skewed their rating system to screw Allen over. Which is an absurd proposition.

Thanks! Maybe, but consider, Rosen, Darnold, and Jackson don't have significantly better rushing games and their numbers in that regard are much higher. Bills 1,235 other than Allen and Peterman Ravens 1,495 other than Jackson and Flacco Jets 1,376 other than Darnold and McCown Arizona 1,112 other than Rosen and Bradford Again, not to compare Allen with others in his draft-class, it's not a race among them. All can succeed, all can fail, and anything in between. The success of one is not hinged, in any way, shape, or form, to the others. Point is, and notwithstanding any potential reasons, Allen's performance in that way absolutely must improve or he's simply not the one. And traditionally/historically, that's a very difficult thing to correct for coaches because it doesn't involve technique or method that a coach can see and attempt to right, rather it's a mental thing that's difficult for a coach to see, namely what a player is actually thinking. So most of this if not all of it is on Allen. Again, this is also something he was not good at and criticized for at Wyoming. Expecting him to be able to correct this in the NFL, and when he was so poor at it against collegiate competition that made it to the NFL, is a tall order. We will know more by midseason next year.

You're confusing athleticism with passing talent. A whole lot of people are doing that, it's a common thing.

He's a garbage-time specialist. He was in college too. The only reason why he has as many receptions as he does is entirely due to lack of options.

Inaccuracy is far from Allen's biggest issue. What IS his biggest issue right now is reading defenses. He leaves TONS of yards on the field because he fails to see an open man. That's the single biggest thing I've noticed. The best QBs, franchise QBs, simply do not do that. But that comes from properly pre and post reading defenses, which frankly, he's not good at. This is what plagues him in the Red Zone. I think it's Football Outsiders that tracks "Average Yards to the Sticks" which is a measure of where the QB throws the ball in relation to where the 1st-down marker is. Between that and Allen owning the longest "in the air" throw this season, and Allen ranks 1st in the former, we need to reconcile why his play otherwise isn't good. Because he's clearly going deeper than everyone else. So then why are his averages in terms of yards the worst in the league. There has to be some reconciliation there. I noticed that some very good and prominent QBs are below zero on "Average Yards to the Sticks." Brady's great at that. That's because they read the D and see that they can get 15 yards with a dumpoff to a RB on a short sideline route rather than go OTM or elsewhere. Allen's simply missing those, and other, open receivers and clearly failing to process the overall chances of getting the most yards on a play. That's not good. Here's some insight, ... here are the Red Zone Ratings of the 1st-round QBs this season: Mayfield: 119 (he leads the league) Darnold: 95.6 Rosen: 94.5 Jackson: 89.9 Allen: 81.3 Allen is ranked ahead of only 3 starters in the entire league in the red zone for rating. Two of those are Bortles and Keenum. That's a problem. He's the only one of the 2018 class that seems to have difficulty throwing TDs in the red zone. Again, that short-medium game. It is what it is. Hope he fixes it, post-haste.

You got it. Check out my second response above. Same thing basically. I hope that Allen shatters the odds against him, I really do, I mean who doesn't LOVE this kid! He's got ALL the intangibles. But that's neither here nor there. There are two certainties involved here. First, McBeane have necessarily tied, in Whaley-like fashion, their futures to Allen. Whaley had nine-lives with the Pegulas, not sure they'll have the same. Secondly, Allen's going to need to be above average next year in order for the offense to put up numbers better than they were under Taylor, a known non-answer at QB. That will involved, not lofting the deep-ball, it will involved taking his short-medium game from well-below-average to one that's well-above-average. It's simple, if he can't do that, ... For the reasons that you cite, among others, not sure that's going to happen. It's beating some long odds if it does.

On what basis do you say that Allen looks "far more capable than Darnold?" Or Rosen for that matter, as a passer I mean. I'm not seeing it. Help me out. Allen's stats pretty much across the board are worse than either of them, Mayfield for sure, and even Jackson's. Allen's terrible in the Red Zone. Even using simple "non-PFF" stats like AYPA, Allen's worse. TD/INT much less TD/To ratio is worse. All of the short-medium game indicators are worse. Again, help me out. Also, what, specifically and mathematically, don't you like about PFF's methodology? Whatever they're using they used for all QBs, not just Allen to slight us Bills fans. I find it difficult to believe that they devised a system to slight Allen specifically while boosting the rest of the QBs. That notion is ridiculous. You mention poor protection, but honestly, do Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, or even Mayfield have that much better protection? I'm pretty atune to the NFL but I haven't read recently that the Ravens, much less the Browns, Cards, or Jets have great OLs. Allen has 2.7 sacks/start Mayfield about 2.0 Jackson 2.3 Darnold 2.3 Rosen 3.3 Arizona's offense is the only one that's worse than our across the board. The Jets' isn't much better. Cleveland's is better because of Mayfield mostly, and Chubb. Baltimore's is better only because of Jackson, it was stagnant before he started, and yet, the criticism is huge because it's because of Jackson's rushing. Jackson's TD/INT ratio is 2/1, Allen's is 2/3. Take Jackson's rushing away and the Raven O is right down there with the Jets, us, and Cards. And yet he's winning no praise for his passing. Regardless, how the other four QBs from this draft perform is entirely irrelevant. What matters is that Allen can correct his short-medium game. Part of that are his woes in the red zone. He's gotta be able to throw for more than 1 TD every other game (apart from extreme garbage-time TDs) and has to start lofting closer to 2/game. That's an enormous leap. That rate is significantly worse than the other QBs, except for possibly Rosen, yet none of them have notably better circumstances. Next season will be huge. If Allen cannot begin pitching TDs to at least an average NFL QB level, which is at least 1-1/2-per-game, any calls questioning whether he's a franchise QB will be completely justifiable. What we say doesn't matter a hill of beans. What does matter is that of all of the indicators, besides this elusive "eye test" that people cite, which is short shrift for he looks good playing the part but nothing more and certainly nothing concrete, that factor into whether a QB is a franchise QB in waiting, ALL need significant inprovement because as of now they're nowhere even close to being in the camp of that status. The only one that can change that is Allen himself with help from the coaching staff. But based on this coaching staff's history with QBs, I think this will rest entirely on Allen.

Unfortunately, the year to have had an all-pro offseason was this past one when the had two picks in each of rounds 1-3 on both days 1 & 2. Everyone's raving about 10 picks in this year's draft, but the reality is that there's only one each in round 1-3 where the impact players originate. Their track record on day 3 picks isn't good. Milano's OK, somewhat overrated if you ask me. Too hot/cold. Johnson and Neal are OK but again, a roster full of that level of player ain't gonna cut it. Those two have 1 INT between them and don't even approach being great man-to-man covers right now, Milano has more PDs and INTs than both combined and he's a LB. His problem is that he's cold one game and hot the next. Also, his INTs have been of the "in the right place at the right time" type, not due to great m2m coverage. Which is fine, just sayin'. Part of that "all pro offseason" will have to include players that are far more consistent than what they've gotten thus far. But I'll disagree in that McBeane's futures, as well as Allen's, whose prospects are going to be directly hinged to next season. Next year everyone's going to be using as excuses that the rookies need two or three years to develop, as always, but McBeane won't have two or three more years, neither will Allen. No coach deserved four or five seasons to put together a team that's competitive. And frankly, last year they came on and said that they weren't rebuilding, then this year we find ourselves what, ... rebuilding. That's not a good sign of the braintrust. Levy pulled that nonsense when he came back on as GM, "the future is now" he boldly proclaimed, and stated that the team had enough talent to compete, then the following season he announced a rebuild. All that says is that he was in over his head when he got here. That's what it says about anyone doing that. It says that you didn't have any realistic idea as to the talent on the team when you started. That alone makes its own statement. Here's the thing about Allen, he has this powerful arm, but he's made fewer deep plays than any of his draft peers. Of the plays he has made, two of the biggest, those two to Foster, were on broken coverages, NOT on Foster beating someone man-to-man with Allen dropping a perfect throw, quite the contrary. Rather on broken coverages with Foster wide open, great throws both times, but the point being that plays like that aren't the types that competitive play can be built on/around. I mean what kind of coach says, "OK, at some point they're going to let their guard down or make a mistake, and that's when we strike and score." Who says that? No one, pre or post game much less in the lockerroom. It's clear that the focus is on beating the other team at the point-of-attack and man-to-man as is the case with the skill positions in the passing game. Yet those plays were not like that. But I digress. The one things I"ve heard few mention is how horrific Allen's game is in the red zone where the deep ball is taken away. Either way, if he doesn't sort out the short-medium stuff next season there are already people that are going to be calling for moving on. There are people in this thread that have mentioned "the eyeball test," which is short shrift for that any of the relevant data and factual information doesn't matter. The bottom line on Allen is simple. We have a QB that can run the ball, perhaps better than any other in the history of the game. However, at the same time anyone knowledgeable about both football history as well as the game today should realize that if that continues his career will be truncated severely at some point and even the coaching staff has implied as much. A number of people that posters here like to proclaim as "experts" have also chimed in and said as much as if it's not common sense. We have a QB that in 10 games has thrown 7 TDs, two in extreme garbage time such as this past week vs. the Pats, rendering 1 TD every other game, 5 total passing TDs in 10 starts, coupled with 8 fumbles, fortunate that only 2 of those were lost, for 13 TOs. That's nearly the rate that Kizer had last year that caused the Browns to be 0-16. That TO/Fumble rate has to drop. Allen's efficiency in the red zone has to skyrocket. His short-medium game absolutely must make an enormous leap next year. Rookies aren't going to be the difference. McBeane chose to turn 5 of those 6 picks, two each in rounds 1 and 2 along with the first overall pick in round 3 in this past draft, into Allen and Edmunds. Keep in mind, they could have had Edmunds with their first overall pick, which translates to the other four having been traded to get Allen, “their guy.” Anytime you “sell the farm” to get “your guy,” your guy had better work out. That was a lot to trade away to get him, no reasonable person has argued contrarily. That was the draft to get an “all pro draft” from, not this one which is laden with day-3 picks that are 50/50 for average players at best. The extra cap money ain’t gonna help. The cap is going to nearly 200M this year and other teams are going to have more cap space too. As always, there are never enough top players for the amount of overall cap space that’s available, and as always, we’re likely to overpay anyway, but that’s largely irrelevant. Receivers aren’t going to correct Allen’s passing, Allen’s got to correct Allen’s passing. Then we'll have to factor in which of the few really impact players in free-agency prefer to come to Buffalo over other destinations and of course the likelihood that we'll have to overpay to land them here. And frankly, I’ve seen enough of McBeane’s free-agent moves, that apart from the few that have lucked out for players that no one else wanted, to not get overly excited about their ability to find the better bargains on the market. We’ll see, it’s definitely going to be interesting, but I don’t think that an all-but-normal draft with only one pick in each of the first three rounds, and not drafting in the top 3-5 likely, is going to yield an all-pro result. If we’re lucky two of those picks will be producing as impact players sometime during their rookie seasons. If we're lucky McBeane don't pull a Whaley and make some even more ridiculous trade for another WR, a position for which it's never wise to trade-up for as such, in a desperate attempt to make Allen look better. If we’re not lucky we end up with another Zay Jones, As it now stands, McBeane’s picks in rounds 1-3 have yielded solid but hardly impact players. Edmunds is good but young and will improve significantly over time, I expect an enormous leap next season from him and a player that will anchor the D for years to come. Phillips and Dawkins are OK, let’s say solid, yet inconsistent both of ‘em, and far from impact players. White’s very good most of the time but has ridiculous lapses, a very good pick nonetheless, but the best of theirs. Jones was a wasted pick high in the 2nd round, particularly with the far more obvious choice of Smith-Shuster still available. So we’ll see, just sayin’, I don’t think an all-pro offseason is possible to the extent that it’s necessary and given McBeane’s track record in free-agency. Next season will determine a number of things and IMO the futures of McBeane, both of ‘em, among them. Much of that, if not all of it, is going to hang on Allen’s progression in the aforementioned ways. Unfortunately for them and him, those are typically the most difficult things to correct. They also have little if anything to do with arm-strength and running the ball. Here's to hoping, but what we think will be irrelevant. He'll have to do it or the calls for McBeane's heads and a new QB will be unavoidable, particularly the former.

That's EXACTLY right! He made a living off of garbage time in college, in a spread offense no less. Most of his stats this season are as well.

Sidenote: In Rypien's best year Kelly had more TDs. Rypien = Bledsoe That should help the argument. Rypien also played behind arguably the best OL in the history of football. He was nothing when he wasn't behind that line. Dude had brick feet just like Bledsoe. Anyone that's arguing against you doesn't know football and football history.

I don't think it's a matter of "learning to take the easy yardage, he's not seeing a whole bunch of wide open guys, several each week, often on key plays, that he's going to have to correct. If he can do that, I agree, it'll be a ride. If not however, he won't ever amount to being more than an average passer if he's lucky. Take a look at his splits in the Red Zone sometime and compare it to any QB you want to.

I'm not worried or not worried, just sayin' that it has to improve. If it doesn't, then it ain't happenin'. It is what it is at this point, we've been forlorn Bills fans for so long that we should all realize that nothing is guaranteed, least of all not the health of a QB that's going to lead all QBs in rushing. If I am concerned about anything it's that Allen has been plagued by this stuff his entire collegiate career. IMO, based upon a wealth of NFL (and collegiate) history, the odds of him not improving to the extent necessary are greater than the odds of him improving to the extent that he becomes a franchise QB, namely a top-10 (at least) passer. That's neither here nor there either as what I think, or anyone thinks for that matter, is irrelevant in how this plays out. But again, the problem with him "doing it with his legs" is that he's going to start taking a ton of hits and eventually he's going to get walluped to the extent where he has a season-ending if not career-threatening injury. He's already taken a couple of mean and dicey hits and teams are starting to catch on that he likes to run and will plan on it. The coaching staff is clearly concerned since they've mentioned this very thing, with concern. I mean did we draft him on the premise that we were going to get 1,000 yards rushing out of him every season, or for some other reason, namely that he was the solution to our perennially ailing passing-game? Clearly the latter. He's not even the best "deep-armed" QB statistically in the batch of this year's top draftees. That's supposed to be his strength. Sure, he's hit Foster on several deep throws, but what has gone completely unnoticed and therefore unmentioned is that more often than not, and on the two biggest of those throws, they were resultant from broken coverages. that's not something you want to plan on happening to win games, eh. It's not a performance measure, it's a "luck" kinda thing. As to dropped passes, that's a common argument, but also one that only applies if the team had no dropped passes on Taylor's watch or in comps on other teams in the league re: QBs that we're comparing him too. Unfortunately, dropped passes are both a normal as well as expected part of the game. In fact, the Bills actually rank well above-average in terms of dropped passes and better than we did last season, and Zay Jones, arguably our most prominent WR, is up nearly 20% in catch% from last season under Taylor. Granted, he's still bottom-dwelling in that regard, but he's significantly better than his near DFL status of last season. So in allowing for the same standards to be applied across the board, while it looks good on paper the reality is that it's not a significant mitigating data bit at this point. As to getting "a WR who can win contested catches, a real TE and a better OL," that's a lot to get with only one pick in each of the first three rounds of the draft on days 1 & 2, one typically does not find those players on day-3 where depth and role-players are the fare. Also, McBeane's track record on day 3 is not good. I realize that we have $90M in cap money, but most of that can all but vaporize on two or three players. Given whom McBeane have brought in to date thus far as free-agents, I'm not sure that confidence in that happening to that extent should be that high. As well, even if they draft well and have a top-notch free-agency, there are still going to be a player or two that doesn't pan out as expected. That's normal on all teams. Either way, people are talking about McKenzie and Foster as great moves, well, if they're that great, then problem solved and the results should be forthcoming very soon. Again, not sure I have that confidence in those players based upon the circumstances. We can't have it both ways tho, meaning those two being ringers and yet Allen "not having any tools." Jones is what he is, a bad draft pick, IMO obvious at the time, who will likely be with the team next season because he's relatively cheap, even for a 3 or 4 WR, but who may not be with the team after that or if he is, is likely to be gone after his first contract following the 2020 season. No one's going to be champing at the bit to get him. He was massively overrated out of the gate. We'll see what happens, as should be obvious, us discussing this isn't going to alter the realities one iota. Obviously we're all hoping that Allen pans out as a franchise QB, I simply see too much that is difficult to "coach-up" for me to become more excited than I am concerned. However we discuss this tho, we must apply the same standards across the board. We cannot make exceptions for one player in a contrast-and-comparison while not allowing for the same exceptions in the overall analysis, particularly when it hurts the other players in the analysis more than it hurts the one that we're trying to bolster.

The better metric(s) are averages by game. We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game. Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better. It's mind-boggling. I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work. Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another. We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.

There's one thing that matters right now, that's Allen's development as a passer. Everything else is a country-mile distant 2nd in terms of what's relevant for this team going forward. If Allen can correct and improve his passing game, then we'll have found our franchise QB. If not however, well, then it'll be wash/rinse/repeat time. Everyone hammered on Taylor, I was no different, but right now Allen's passing numbers aren't even what Taylor's were. If they weren't good enough under Taylor, then until further notice they're still not good enough. Using only Allen's last four games post-injury, here are the comps between him and Taylor's time in Buffalo: Compl. %: Taylor 61.6%, Allen 50.0% Yards-per-Game: Taylor 201, Allen 200 TDs/Game: Taylor 1.2, Allen 1 INTs/Game: Taylor .4, Allen 1 Rating: Taylor 92.5, Allen 70.1 TD%: Taylor 4.1%, Allen 3.5% INT%: Taylor 1.3%, Allen 3.5% YPA: Taylor 7.2, Allen 7.0 Adj. YPA: Taylor 7.4, Allen 6.2 The one area where Allen is better, at least over his last four games, is sack-avoidance where Allen's been sacked once every 20 dropbacks whereas Taylor was sacked once every 11, despite the fact that the four teams played recently are ranked 12th, 19th, 28th, and 31st (22nd average) in sacks. I've been pointing out that Allen's success, just as every QB's success in the NFL is, will be determined by his short-medium passing game. The problem therein, at the moment, is that Allen's Red Zone game is horrible, worse than that of his draft peers, and near DFL among NFL starters if not DFL outright. The thing that people have failed to factor in, which is common for "strong-armed QBs," is that once a team gets down into the red zone there is no more "deep game" and the short-medium is an absolute must. There's no argument against this, it's common sense and fact. Here's hoping, but that's what will need to happen. Allen missed several check-down options this past game while throwing incomplete, or worse, INT, instead. That cannot continue to happen. I'm not saying this improvement won't happen, all I'm saying is that anything else regarding the future of this team under McBeane will end up being irrlevant. The fact that we've won three games of the 3-points-or-less variety in this case isn't all that encouraging given that the average scoring in those four games was 19.5 points-per-game, which is presently good for 27th of 32 in the league and less than it was under Taylor.

So thanks to our ability to "close" we're 5-9? ... 2-12 otherwise. Isn't this akin to getting a participation ribbon?

Here is some data that may or may not factor into your well stated synopsis, do with them as you see fit. There is one thing, I’d call it a defining thing, that has IMO defined McD’s ability to win games, or conversely not. We’ll get to that in a moment. But first some data to go along with your well written synopsis, and keeping in mind that we’re only 13 games into this season, although most of the below are per-game averages. Offense: Yards-per-Game have dropped by about 10 ypg Passing Yards-per-Game are down by about that same 10 ypg Rushing Yards-per-Game are about the same, but primarily due to Allen Scoring is down by 3.4 Points-per-Game On Allen’s starts it’s down by about 2 Points-per-Game Compl. % is down by about 6, with Allen down by about 8 Yards-per-Attempt are down by about half-a-yard, w/ or w/o Allen Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt are down from 6.2 to 4.2 for the team Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt are down from 6.9 to 5.0 from Taylor to Allen Passing TDs are down from 16 (14 from Taylor, about 1/start) to 8 (5 from Allen, about .6/start) with three games remaining INTs are up from 10 (4 by Taylor, about .25/game) to 20 (9 by Allen, over 1/game) with three games remaining Team sacks allowed are about the same rate, about 3/game Allen’s sack rate is 1 every 9.7 attempts, Taylor’s was 1 every 10.1, so about the same Team QB Rating has dropped by well over 20 points The Rating from Taylor to Allen has dropped from 89.2 to 62.8, a difference of 26.4 Yards lost on sacks are greater by 9 this season so far Last season we finished ranked 6th in rushing, this season so far we’re ranked 9th Yards-per-Carry has gone from 4.1 (ranked 14th last season) to 4.3 (ranked 17th this season) Without Allen’s rushing contributions the YPC drops by approximately a half-a-yard and is worse w/ or w/o Taylor’s contributions last season Defense: Yards-per-Game has improved by about 65 Passing Yards-per-Game allowed has improved by about 45 Rushing Yards-per-Game allowed has improved by about 20 Points-Allowed has gotten worse by 2.4 Points/Game Compl. % allowed is better by less than 1% Yards-per-Attempt allowed is better from 6.7 to 6.4 QB Rating allowed has gotten worse by over 6 Sacks have increased from 27 to 31 with three games remaining Passing TDs allowed have jumped from 14 to 19 with three games remaining INTs have dropped from 18 to 12 with three games remaining The most notable thing, at least to me, that sticks out in those numbers, is the disparity between the improvement in the yardage game defensively contrasted with the regression in the Points-Allowed game. There’s one related thing that I’ve seen only one media person pick up on, and not even a regional media guy, the big difference between this season and last, which was noticeable last season, and what defines the McD era’s ability to win games, is TURNOVERS. When the team finishes with a positive TO margin, they have a better than an 85% chance of winning. (12 of 14) When the team finishes with a neutral (0) or negative TO margin, the chances of winning are almost nothing, less than 7%. (1 of 16) So when predicting Bills games, "the Bills will win if _________," the answer is all but catergorically if they finish with a positive TO margin. The four games that we won this year have had TO margins of +3, +2, +2, and +2. We’ve lost two games that we had positive TO margins in, both last season. We’ve won only one game that we had a negative TO margin in, which was the Indianapolis game in the snow last season. In short, without a positive TO margin they can’t seem to win. That’s not the sign of a good team. More on this in another thread when I have time, but last season Taylor had 4 INTs and 4 Fumbles (0 recovered) for 8 TOs in 14 starts. That’s a rate of less than .6 TO/game. Allen has 9 INTs and 7 Fumbles (2 recovered) for 14 TOs in 8 starts. That’s a rate of 2 INTs/FUMs per game and a TO rate of 1.75/game, which is nearly what Kizer had last season in Cleveland. FWIW, Cleveland outplayed their opponents last season in terms of yards-gained, yards-held-to, 1st-downs both allowed and gotten, etc., at a rate of about 50% better than we did. Yet they were 0-16 and we were 9-7. The difference as I’ve mentioned before here, is the TOs. As I’ve been harping on, while pissing into the winds of current populism, is that if Allen is ever going to achieve the status of “franchise QB” for us, Allen’s short-medium passing game is going to have to make enormous strides in improvement. That is A, directly related to reading defenses, and B, something that he struggled heavily with at Wyoming. He was horrific in that regard against the best defenses that he played, aka, against the only players defensively that were likely to make the NFL. Everything’s been about Allen’s “strong arm,” and recently about his rushing, which if it doesn’t get him seriously injured first is a sore indictment of the offense’s rushing game. But here’s the thing, a “strong-arm” is all but irrelevant in the Red Zone where Allen is horrible. He’s horrible in general, and he’s horrible against all of his draft peers in the Red Zone. Here is the data: In the Red Zone according to ESPN QB splits by player as of week 14 … Mayfield is 24 of 39 (61.5%) for 207 Yards, 5.3 YPA, 15 TDs, and 2 sacks with a rating of 115.1 and a TD% of 38.5% via his passing. Darnold is 16 of 27 (59.3%) for 137 Yards, 5.1 YPA, 5 TDs, 2 sacks with a rating of 96.8 and a TD% of 18.5% via his passing. Rosen is 14 of 32 (43.8%) for 116 Yards, 3.6 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 sacks with a rating of 93.2 and a TD% of 18.8% via his passing. Lamar Jackson (who only has a few starts) is 7 of 14 (50%) for 51 yards, 3.6 YPA, 3 TDs, and 2 sacks with a rating of 98.5 and a TD% of 21.4% via his passing. Allen is 8 of 19 (42.1%) for 43 Yards, 2.3 YPA, 2 TDs, 3 sacks, 84.8 rating and a TD% of 10.5% via his passing, which has no explanation, it’s abysmal, rookie or not. (Fact) I won’t even run the sack rates, but suffice to say that it’s absurdly higher than all but Jackson’s and he’s the only QB for which it exceeds his TD%. And since we're comparing seasons, 2017 to 2018, here are Taylor's Red Zone stats from last season; Taylor was 30 of 58 (51.7%) for 166 Yards, 2.9 YPA, 11 TDs, 2 Sacks, an 82.9 rating and a TD% of 19% via his passing. In short, while it’s grand that Allen has replaced McCoy in the rushing department, the fact of the matter is that if he’s going to be “the one,” our new “franchise QB,” he’s going to have to do it via his passing game which needs a ton of work. It’s also not going to involve the deep-game which is incredibly overrated, it’s going to have to involve his short-medium game which right now is not good excuses and “reasons” aside, such as dropped passes where the Bills are actually ranked above-average contrary to popular belief, and as if other teams featuring the above mentioned QBs don’t have them as well. In fact, all four of the teams for the above-mentioned QB rank worse in dropped passes than we do. Same for time-in-the-pocket, I saw a stat the other day that placed Allen’s time in the pocket as above average. Either way, and that aside, his short-medium, which reflect in the Red Zone, are going to have to take a MASSIVE leap in order for him to boost his passing game to the levels of franchise QB. None of the above QBs besides Mayfield, IMO, are destined for stardom. Allen’s the worst of all 5 in the short-medium game, so unless he’s going to run his way to franchise status, … As to McD, if his teams cannot learn to start winning games while not always possessing a positive TO margin, usually a significant one, then I don’t see him lasting long either. Turnovers is absolutely no basis for sustainable success. It’s the biggest difference from last season to this one, +9 last season, -8 this season. Cleveland was -28 last season and +9 this season. The primary difference from last season to this one for them (Mayfield’s 1.4 TO/game vs. Kizer’s 2 TO/game), the primary difference for us from last season to this one (Taylor’s .6 TO/game vs. Allen’s 1.8 TO/game). Factor in Mayfield’s Red Zone Performance over Kizer’s which was awful too but still notably better than Allen’s, and the picture becomes even more clear, or should. Interestingly, Kizer’s draft grade is almost identical to Allen’s as was his draft profile and emphasis on his “strong arm.” In fact, here’s the “Strengths” from NFL.com; STRENGTHS Big quarterback with a big arm. Can make all of the throws. Has step and crank power to drive throws into the seams. Has the arm talent and willingness to challenge safeties on both intermediate and deep throws. Looks the part with thick frame to withstand NFL punishment. Over the top delivery creates tight spirals. Has powerful grip allowing for aggressive pump fakes to move defense around. When he's comfortable, will tie feet with his eyes as he scans the field. Adequate drive accuracy. If he feels a completion is imminent, he'll stand in and take a punishing shot. Strong, authoritative runner with the speed to hit a big play with his feet. Two-way threat in the red zone. Posted 18 rushing touchdowns over last two seasons. Who does that sound like apart from "tying feet with his eyes as he scans the field"? As to Allen, the cliché’d overuse of his collegiate completion % aside, here are some of his draft concerns that have not even become close to being overcome that will absolutely have to be overcome if he’s going to be the franchise QB that everyone seems to be projecting him as right now: · Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet · May have too much hero in his blood · Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it · Takes too many chances with low percentage throws · Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball (as is evident by his TOs) · Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short · Field-reading is spotty · Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop · Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing · Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused · Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers Frankly, that “hero” is likely to end a season if not his career if he’s not more careful. Given his way below-average stats in the short-medium and Red Zone games, there really isn’t much in his defense at the moment regarding his passing, despite the current narratives. Granted, he’s exciting to watch, in fact, I’d say the only reason worth watching games this season, but that doesn’t mitigate the facts in the matter.

LOL Gee, no violation of the ToS there. I get it cashdude, you among them apparently, seem to have a difficult time when presented with facts. Unfortunately this country turns on mob-mentality opinions, that we often call democracy, the fact be damned. Yeah, yeah, I get it. Condescending is relative. Again, as with some of the others, I'm sorry, truly, that you have difficulty grappling with information that may conflict with opinions that you harbor that are contrary. Otherwise, really, facts are facts irrespective of how they're presented and have no emotions associated with them. I'm getting ready to lay out a few others, numbers only for the most part, just watch the reactions. It's truly comical.

LOL Oh, OK John, if you say so. Fortunately for you, I don't live here like you do. I only post occasionally when I get bored. And for what it's worth, I'm sorry that you struggle with elementary school math and and that you don't care for facts, because most of my post was simply that, facts. I realize that doesn't go over well in your egotistical opinions-uber-alles world.