Ronin

I never said he didn't progress, but where you fail to accept the data is that even after this implied iconic improvement he was still bottom-dwelling. He STILL wasn't good and as I pointed out, his compl. %, arguably the single thing that he had to work on the most, actually got worse by a couple points. Progress? Here are his Red Zone stats, which aren't good. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/red-zone-passing-plays/2018 He only had 5 Red Zone completions in 10 games that weren't against Miami. That's problematic. GO BILLS, GO JOSH indeed. But you saying it isn't going to make him go. He'll have to do it on his own. Even the coaches are going to have a difficult time getting into his head to correct things. Again, remember, he has a nasty habit of running anything his primary target isn't open. We've all see the wide-open receivers, often times visibily frustrated, because he didn't see them because he was looking long. That's simply going to have to change and you don't change that by popular opinion and the coaches will have a difficult time correcting that. It's simply not a trait that's ever been overcome in the NFL to the extent that a QB turns it around and becomes a franchise QB. Again, we all want the team to win, hell, I'd love nothing more than for us to return to what it was like in the early '90s. The difference between me and just about everyone else is that I realize that simply because we all agree on it won't change a dam thing, but attempting to correct the problems that he has should be a priority, ignoring them will not help make those corrections. As well, realizing that yes, he could have a better OL, but that some of the issues involve Allen himself, not simply the other 10 guys on the starting offense, particularly given that he missed a whole lot of open receivers last year. An open receiver is an open receiver, doesn't matter if it's Zay Jones or OBJ, open is open on any given play. If a QB doesn't see an open man, it's on the QB.

LOL It's intervention time for anyone that's encouraged by Allen's rookie passing numbers. Honestly, he was among THE worst QBs in the entire league passing, he was down there with Rosen, with Rosen even being better in some aspects. Mayfield of course, Darnold, and even Jackson were better in the passing department. This is just a mud-slinging exercise for most. Through 15 games and prior to that last Miami game Allen had averaged 168 yards/game passing, had 7 TDs and 11 INTs in 11 other games, not to mention fumbles at the rate of nearly 1/game, Kizer-like, a 63.7 rating. On the season Allen was ranked 32nd of 33 in Adjusted YPA despite his "deep arm," the same in YPA, the same in INT%, 31st of 33 in TD%, 33rd in Compl. %, 32nd in YPG, 32nd in Rating, 32nd in Net YPA, 32nd in Adj. Net YPA, and even 26th in sack%, something he's supposed to be good at avoiding. . Rosen was right there next to him all the time. This doesn't even mention his league-leading turnover rate of nearly 2 TOs/game. Apparently that's irrelevant too. LOL So it seems to me that anyone thinking that Allen's "on the cusp" are the ones that need the intervention. LOL Seriously, who looks at those numbers and isn't HIGHLY concerned. And oh year, a DT in the first round will help.

You are correct about Foster, I had condfused the week #'s with the game #'s because he missed a bunch of games and they don't align like they do for the others. Sorry bout that. Still, don't make too much of it, it's hardly an integral piece to this overall puzzle. Allen missed games 7-10. The starters in those games were Anderson, Anderson, Peterman, and Barkley. That alters nothing re: Allen's overall play either way. He still averaged a mere 182 yards/start, and even over his last 6 after coming back from injury only 207 yards/game, with an even lower compl.% than he did in the early going. That doesn't bode well no matter what anyone says. Whether he corrects it remains to be seen.. Jones for example, the team's leading WR, not that he's good, just sayin', had 21 catches in those four games for 193 yards, keep in mind, under those four QBs. After Allen's return he had 19 catches for 260 or 5 yards fewer/game. Here's another thing however that I just noticed that anyone should consider to be tremendously significant, particularly for Jones, Jones' catch% in four games against crap QBs was 70.0%. Under Allen it was 48.6%. It was even worse in the 6 games after Allen's return where it was 44.2%. Suggesting that Allen had nothing to do with that is silly. Any true fan should be highly concerned over that.

BTW South, you got me thinkin'. Here is Newton's playoff game average over his 7 playoff games; He's 3-4 to start. One of those games they won because of Kuechly's pick 6. In his 3 wins he had 5 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs with 4 of those 7 TDs and both rushing TDs coming in one game against Arizona. Otherwise he had a mere 3 passing TDs in the other two wins, 359 combined yards (180 passing yards/game), and an insignificant number of rushing yards in those other two wins. He's averaged 19 of 32 for 260 yards, 1.4 TDs, 1 INT, and 87.7 rating, 9 carries for 37 yards rushing, and only 2 total rushing TDs, again, in one game, a rout, of Arizona. In the other 6 playoff games his offense averaged a below-average 19 PPG. Odd that you'd be happy if Allen turns out like that as a finished product. As I said, my expectations are significantly higher. Either way, that you seem to think that's franchise QB caliber, well, again, I guess we can simply agree to disagree.

Great, let's end there then. I won't be happy given what we gave up. For what we gave up, I'm expecting more than a QB that's going to throw for a below-average number of TDs every season, one that's purely mediocre in the post-season, one that's taken his team to the playoffs only four times getting ousted in the first round, like us last season, twice, losing in the D-round once, and only making it to the SB once with a horrific performance to boot in the SB costing his team a championship, kinda like Bledsoe, and only in a season with a relatively easy schedule featuring no teams with more than 10 wins on the season, one that's led his team to an average 14th scoring offense otherwise, and not exactly in premier defensive division I might add, and one that's 56-55-1 (perfectly .500) in 7 seasons otherwise. Fair enough. My standards are significantly higher, which I can except and which explains the differences in at least some our positions.

A lot of things can happen, but that doesn't mean that they will. Citing QBs for one reason or another in a statistically isolated basis is bad form. Anyone could do the same thing for more accomplished collegiate QBs that outplayed Allen in their rookie seasons but that never went on to stardom othewise. If you want to cite Favre, lay out some numbers. Fun fact... Favre’s completion percentage dropped by 5% to the high 50’s after Sharpe retired. Really? You want to stand on that and link your credibility to it? OK, ... here are the "fun fact" numbers: Sharpe retired after the '94 season, right? Favre's Completion % for those three seasons was 62.4%. Fun fact! The very next season Favre had a 63.0% completion %, which alone essentially proves your fun fact completely wrong. It was 61.9%, a whole half-% "worse" over the balance of his other 16 seasons after Sharpe retired, which includes Favre's horrific last season at the age of 41. Even over the next 5 seasons after Sharpe left his completion % was 60.5% proving your Fun Fact wrong. Either way, if it's your intention to equate Allen to Favre, I'm not even sure what to say. Favre's worst completion % was 56%, in his second-to-worst season at the age of 37, still over 4% better than Allen's after Allen came back from injury. So I'm not even sure what your point is here, besides the fact that the premise for whatever it is that you laid out is completely and utterly false. It's having to respond to things like this that are a complete waste of time, and there are plenty of them. I mean really, what should I do with this? It's nonsense. Either way, looks like your fun fact isn't so much fun. Who cares? Does that bother you that I have a strong opinion on Allen? Sounds like more of a personal problem than a polemical one. Go get help, really. I mean seriously, you get upset because I lay out good arguments for how good Allen is or conversely isn't? Whatever ... I respond to comments made, many of which consist of statistical lies like Buffalo Junction and his fun fact above. Talk about beating a dead horse, that dead horse is how great Allen is before he's ever even achieved that status if you ask me. And this emotional immaturity of assuming that this is some sort of personal preference of mine, like frankly it is with you and others on the flip side, is childish. Otherwise, any thread about receiving, the draft, and numerous other things have to do with Allen. What, you can't connect those dots, ... strike that, yes, I realize that you can't.

Not sure what you mean. Allen the LB? Again, I don't see how they can possibly take a defender in round 1. What I'm saying is that if McBeane want to keep their jobs, they'd better figure out a way to correct Allen's short-medium passing game. It's simple, not to correct it but realizing that's what needs to be corrected. See, the majority opinion here is that little if any of the reason why Allen was all but ineffective in the Red Zone (aka w/o a deep game), bottom-dwelling in the short game, and by short game I don't mean short gains, I mean finding the open receivers (whomever they be, RB, WR, TE) short, often for what would have been big gains, was due to him, and that 90% of it was due to circumstances beyond his control. If you ask me that's a fool's proposition. Either way, he's going to have to step up, so regarding Allen the QB, what's your solution to help him do that? Say you were the coach, what would your approach be? What, to draft a DT or LB? Help me out here.

BTW, apparently listening/reading-comprehension isn't yours. This is really starting to get old. And defending someone that repeatedly states that Foster's 60 ypg is greater than 82 ypg. Honestly. Let's imply cut to the chase and say that Allen's not human and is impervious to injury and should hit 75 passing TDs this season. I mean if we're going o ignore reality on the front end, let's at least have some fun with it. I've said repeatedly, to you even specifically, that rushing is not a characteristic of franchise QBs. There may be one, perhaps two that do run, but they're not considered franchise QBs because of their rushing ability. AGAIN! Now, which of that last sentence, which I've repeated, to you specifically, or which combination of words, seriously, did you not understand? If you disagree, prove, via facts, that it's incorrect. Good luck. Otherwise, there's a thing called RBs that run the ball so that your QB doesn't have to risk his own self to injury. Good ones do it quite well thereby mitigating if not eliminating the need for a QB to run. Otherwise, one last question, suppose Allen's passing game even doubles the way it is, 20 TDs, 24 INTs, but he rushes for the average 7 TDs/season that Newton has, ... yes or no question, ... would you consider him to be a franchise QB? No lengthy response necessary, I'm spotting you twice Allen's passing from last season and acquiescing to Newton's rushing TD average. Yes or No?

Actually math is my strong suit. Otherwise, you need to sort your posts better, some of those responses weren't to you. As to Newton, I stated that Newton was not a franchise QB based on someone comparing Allen to Newton, and as if there's even a close comparison at this point, and as if it's even relevant, but you defended the notion that Newton was a franchise QB. Logic doesn't appear to be your strong suit. By implication you were arguing against me. Look, I get that we disagree. I'm not emotional over this like so many others, either way we've skinned this cat. No need to engage further 'til the season starts. Allen's going to be Allen, doesn't matter what you, I, or anyone else thinks. If he makes monumental leaps and bounds of progress I'll be as happy as the next guy. Where we see Allen being right now as this very moment is irrelevant. The only difference is that those with higher expectations like most opining on this, and I mean opining since few offer any real data, particularly Allen's monumental struggles in the Red Zone and short-medium game otherwise, the emotional fall is greater for them if things don't work out. That's why I'm relatively steady while others go from insisting that a player or coach is the next great one to wanting to fire everyone and burn down OBD when things don't work out. I'll ask you where you think the emotional maturity lies.

I did, I've even posted the numbers. You, you've posted nothing in contrast. I cannot do anything if you want to stick your fingers in your ears and close your eyes and refuse to look at them. Want to prove your point, lay out Foster's numbers game-by-game, you can do it. Seriously, your fingers broken or something, clearly not, shouldn't take more than a couple of minutes for you to prove me wrong. Funny, I always ask posters to backup their claims and strangely few do as such. Seriously, post Foster's game by game, state whom the QBs were for each, take an average, and show me how little I know about math, statistics, how dishonest I am, etc. Chop chop! Don't challenge me ot lay out what I've already laid out, do your own homework. Too lazy? What?

Look, you're belaboring this point. Newton vs. Brady now? ROFLMAO The FACT is that Newton, even with one superlative season, has averaged 22 TDs/season. To compare him as such to Brady or to any true franchise QB for that matter is ludicrous. There isn't another QB in the league that is averaging 22 TDs/season, 20 otherwise in 7 steady-state seasons, or even close, that's considered a franhise QB. Don't agree, great. Let's agree to disagree. Either way, and indisputably, Allen's short-medium game is so far from Newton's that that's a huge mountain he'll have to climb to even become what Newton is. We'll see. As with you I'm hoping, unlike you I'm doubtful. Unlike most here I don't think for a moment that what my findings and opinions are will make any difference whatsoever in whether or not it happens. Amazing how some posters get so upset to the point of ignoring reality and posting opinionated nonsense, like that Foster didn't have better production w/o Allen than with. .... and no, not referring to you, but you did quote them as a part of your argument. And BTW, it's not like Foster put up 82 ypg w/ Brees, Brady, or Rivers. He did it with nothing QBs. I mean seriously, people aren't concerned about that? I have no idea why not. Boy howdy, there's an intelligent well-thought out counter to the facts. BTW, I pretty much have except for Mayfield, both before and after the draft.

Really, it's wrong? LMAO ... this is one of those comments that renders a poster ignorant. Foster in the 4 games w/o Allen: 13 catches for 330 yards, an average of 82 YPG. Foster in the other 12 games with Allen: 14 catches for 221 yards, an average of fewer than 220 YPG. OK, let's just consider the weeks after Allen came back from injury then, which is fair. In those games Foster caught 12 passes for 181 yards, an average of 60 YPG. I don't know, I learned in 1st grade math class that 82 > 60. I'll have to go back and check tho, maybe I'm wrong. LOL And let's keep in mind, one of those four non-Allen games was with Peterman, the other three were with nothing NFL QBs that hadn't played in any significant time, one having been called up from his sofa. You guys are really something else. The FACT of the matter is that there isn't a receiver on the team that performed better with Allen in there. Sorry, that's simply a fact, rage against it as you may.

Well, to your point, there isn't a single QB that came into the NFL lacking a short-medium game anywhere near to the extent that Allen struggles that ever made it to even average much less franchise status. So as I've pointed out numerous times, if Allen can do it he'll be the first. I'm just not a fan of staking my entire career on "firsts" in the NFL, much in the same way that trading up for a WR (Watkins in our case) has never been worth it. And as if we need to rehash all of our misteps as such as Bills fans, we of all fans should know about that. Otherwise agree with your post, but again, that renders what needs to be done a tall order. I mean how does one get into a QB's head to get them to take his time, scan the field, much less effectively for which the jury's entirely out right now? As I've pointed out, they tried to correct one little thing in Bledsoe to the point where they were using timers and buzzers and they couldn't even get him to get rid of the ball quickly. Imagine compounding that task several times over not to mention getting a QB that's never played like that to do it and learn it in the NFL. Again, not saying that it's not going to happen, but I'd definitely put the odds of it happening at lower than it not happening. What I would absolutely insist must be done based upon a wealth of conclusive NFL history is that he'll have to have his short-medium game make monstrous leaps and bounds going from bottom-dwelling to well above-average. Everyone talks as if merely playing a second season will automatically correct all that, which is a foolish proposition.

Not sure what you mean here. Newton won MVP one season. He's never even approached that distinction again and has been a below-average passer in 7 of his 8 other seasons. I'm not sure how that qualifies him to be a franchise QB. Call me crazy.

Well, OK, that's part of our differences then. I won't be satisfied with mediocre-to-average passing TD production given what they gave up to get Allen and the opportunity costs otherwise. I'm expecting twice that TD production. If Allen can't at least perennially pitch a marginally above-average 30 TDs season, something that Newton's even done once, never having come close otherwise, in a league that has never made passing easier, I will consider that he will not even begun to approach the expectations attached to him. Success is one thing, franchise is another. As to franchise QB, that entails that the QB is the best player on his team. Newton is not. Kuechly is notably better. Otherwise I haven't looked over heir roster, but there's quite a bit of debate among Carolina fans as to whether Newton is or isn't. To me anytime there's that kind of debate, he isn't. Well, OK, in your world then all those wide-open receivers that Allen didn't see last season weren't doing their jobs. OK, everyone hast their opinion.

It's not really a question of wanting or not-wanting anyone, it's more a question of how best to move the team forward. All, or at least close to all of the talk about transitioning from last season to this one revolves around Allen and "giving him the tools he needs..." etc. Unpopular here is that much of Allen's woes actually have much to do with him, but the truth is that it's some of both, the percentages of which can be argued. Everyone knows that Allen's deep game is fine. Brown had one TD last season of over 21 yards (33) in Baltimore and only one, that one, over 30 in his last three seasons there. So clearly there's a disconnect between the veracity of Brown being some kind of monster deep-threat. Allen himself only threw two TD passes for longer than 31 yards last season which also reinforces the notion that games aren't routinely won on deep-balls. One of those two games was won on defense, not offense with 14 points. Correcting Allen's play is far more important than winning a couple of more games while failing to do the former. If Allen improves notably and the team goes 6-10 then McBeane will conitinue to be around. But if we finish 8-8 and Allen plays no better or only marginally better than he did last season, which would be well below-average, evident that he's a huge project, that won't bode well for them and their time in Buffalo. So the question becomes how to correct Allen's play. Better "tools?" Blocking? It can all be debated. But if Allen's going to progress and improve, he's absolutely going to have to hone his short-medium game. He left an awful lot of yards on the field last season, I'd guess 50+ on average, which is a ton, simply because he couldn't find wide-open receivers short, many on plays that would have gone for big gains. Was it his "tools" then? ... because they were wide open which is all you can ask and expect a RB, WR, or TE to do. So what's the draft strategy for that? A deep-game WR? I don't think so. Defense? Not sure how. A deep-WR simply feeds an addiction that is part of the problem and which masks reality. Allen had more time-to-throw by a statistical country mile than any QB in the league last year according to NFL.com's Next Gen Stats It seems to me that they need to do several things. First, figure out how to get into his head and correct years of patterned steady-state play by which Allen has relied on his athleticism and deep-arm to do what he's done, in leagues where those assets were all the difference, and whatever that is and to whatever unimpressive extent he's done it generally speaking. Secondly, that process is very likely going to involve settling him down and having him realize that there's a short-game out there that will ultimately result in more yards than the deep-game, at the same time somehow get him to try to favor that short-medium game over the deep-game, and for sure over his running. So how does one do that? Seems to me that they’ll need an above-average OL, to give him extra time that other QBs don’t need, and otherwise avoid deep WRs so that he’s not encouraged to go deep every play. Besides, Brown and Foster should serve that role fine if Brown is really what the narrative says he is. Defense sure isn’t going to do anything at all for Allen. I don’t see how they can avoid drafting two OL-men with their 1st-rounder and then again with the 2nd or 3rd. TE's almost categorically don't work out to their draft status when drafted in round 1 much less that high in round 1. TE is a poor odds-on proposition. Besides, good blocking TEs can be had on day-3 easily. Otherwise the two most productive TEs from last year's draft were drafted in rounds 4 & 5. This is homework that the organization should be doing. The one thing that’s for sure is that feeding the problem isn’t going to correct it. Remember, no franchise QB has anything but a very good short-medium game, and even non-franchise QBs that are average, all have decent short-medium games, far better than Allen had last season. It is cause for tremendous concern. If Allen doesn't work out, at the cost to get "their guy," McBeane are toast and we're back at square-one.

BTW, "not sure what else he has to do? How about be more than perfectly mediocre in the postseason? IDK, call me crazy like you guys have, but to me a franchise QB doesn't play average ball in the postseason and rely on the defense and running games to win. But here's a straight YES or NO question for you, and very curious than answer. If after the 2026 season we look back and Allen's last 8 seasons were to mimic Newton's 8 to a T, would you consider Allen to have played to expectations? Rushing doesn't a franchise QB make. Every single franchise QB has an outstanding short-medium game. To even hint that Allen's short-medium game is even anywhere in the ballpark of where Newton's is is the definition of ignorance in the matter. To add to that point, you cannot name one QB in the modern era, not one, that has even average much less Allen's horrific-ness in the short-medium game that is a franchise QB based on his rushing. In fact, you can't even name one QB with great passing that is considered a franchise QB because of his rushing. Wilson's about the closest and Wilson's passing is so much better than Newtons, on TD/INT alone.

BTW, allow me to ask, which of Newton's passing seasons back up the notion that he's a franchise QB to you? Just curious. And here's a list; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NewtCa00.htm I'll even summarize the seasons: 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 4,051 Yards 19/12, 3,869 24/13, 3,379 18/12, 3,127 35/10, 3,837 19/14, 3,509 22/16, 3,302 24/13, 3,395 As I see it, withone exception, he's a tremendously average passer, low TD/INT rate, average or worse TD production, high INT%, he's known for being a poor leader and numerous other things. I think this at least explains the low standards here however. One solid season does not a franchise QB make. I can name dozens of QBs with one great season that were never even considered for that status. Easily. If all we get from Allen in 7 of every 8 seasons is TD production of 18-24 TDs, well, continue to laugh, but again, I can see why some seem to think that Allen's better than he is at the moment.

There are a lot of statements out there implying, suggesting, and otherwise outright stating things about the team that simply aren't true. They never provide the statistical/factual basis for making them as if a narrative trumps reality. No matter how many times I point them out the people making those comments simply ignore them. Yes, there were some issues with the team, he could have had better receivers, etc., but ONCE AGAIN, we were generally not THE worst in all of them. Rosen, Darnold, Jackson also didn't have great "weapons." Lots said about how hurried Allen was to throw, but statistically he had more time-to-throw than ANY QB in this league, by a statistical country mile even. People continually talk about dropped passes as if we're the worst when the truth is that we're pretty near average. So in comps drops can't explain differences. But, AND AGAIN, why did ALL of our receivers do so much worse with Allen than with Anderson and Barkley, neither of whom even played recently or even before we signed them. What, are they so great that it explains all that. Say what you want, but you too are implying that none of it is Allen's fault on one hand, and then say you agree with a lot of what I say. If you agree with a lot of what I say about Allen, then who cares about the rest. The only reason I bring it up is usually because someone else has stated the contrary with a narrative suggesting that Allen had so much less to work with than any other QB in the league. Again, it's all irrelevant, our receivers (WR, TE, RBs, doesn't matter) ALL categorically did less with Allen throwing. Foster particularly. That's a fact, if it's true, the rest really doesn't matter.

Cam's not a franchise QB, not even close tho. Besides, in those playoffs he had one good passing game, against Arizona. He wasn't good in the other two.

.Agree with you tho, if the do this then it shows that they have no idea where they are in the rebuilding process. It was bad enough that in a once every 20+ year draft they did what they did last year, but if they do it again it reveals that they're out of touch with what's going on insofar as the cmopetitiveness of the team that they've been entrusted with rebuilding.

You'll get little argument from me on Clay, most overrated TE we've had in years. BUT, he's not nearly as bad as the 2.3 catches/game he had with Allen throwing. Hell, he averaged 3.8 catches/game with Taylor and whom, Fitz? Everyone's receiving numbers went down with Allen on the field. As exciting as Allen was to watch, and this isn't going to float well here, but it wasn't team ball. He tried to be a one man show. Last time a QB like that became a franchise QB was never, at least not in the modern era.

Is that a joke? The fact that we wanted Allen last year was one of the worst kept secrets in the history of the NFL Draft.

Well, the thing is that "garbage" is one thing, and Clay isn't "garbage" per se and Croom also looked decent, but how much of that "garbage-ness" should have been attributed to Allen. I'm A, not sure that Hockenson's receiving regimen is going to help Allen all that much initially, and if he even owns up to such a draft status, B, it's still not the same as a good OT in that regard in terms of blocking, and C, TEs are one of those positions that high draft picks rarely turn out as their "supposed to." Recent ones include highly touted TEs like Ebron, Eifert, Pettigrew, Howard, all the highest drafted TEs over the past decade and all among the first 21 picks. Ebron finally broke out last season, five years in. Otherwise, not matching draft status among them. A good blocking TE can be had on day-3. Same with trading up for a WR, a historically horrible decision. Either way, the tendency is to blame everyone & everything but Allen, but IMO drafting an TE with our 9th overall is far from making optimal use of the pick to actually help Allen. Remember, this has to be a major mental effort to correct him. They've gotta sit his arse down and say, Listen, you need to settle down, relax, scan the field (pre and post snap), and start to utilize all of your options. If you don't do that, then you're not long for this league. That's the tough discussion right there. But in doing that he'll need optimal help in protection, notably more so than already franchise QBs and even average QBs. That's how I see it if Allen's going to work out. Sure, maybe he can do that without the protection as such, but as I've said, if he does it'll be some seriously historically record breaking territory. I'm not sure that Allen's gonna do that given where he is right now and given that he's never been a good reader of defenses. It's an uphill task/order as it is.