Utah John

It will be a shame if Shady and Karlos Williams become the next Joe Piscopo. You young'uns won't remember this, but when the original Saturday Night Live cast moved on, the lead guy in the next gatch of cast members was a guy named Joe Piscopo. He wasn't bad, but he also wasn't Belushi, Aykroyd, Murray, etc. He once described himself as the most hated person in America. All because he followed some special and treasured actors. Shady and Karlos deserve to be thought of on their own, not as the guy who made Fred Jackson expendable.

I think the Colts won't do much special. The read-option has come and gone as a major weapon, but if I were them I'd brush up on defending it. Otherwise, TT might be more mobile than the average guy, but the Bills main offensive threats are the skill position guys -- Shady, Watkins, Harvin, Clay, and Woods. You can't cover all those guys if you're putting a spy on TT, who is going to have to prove to the league that it's a mistake not to pay special attention to him. The main thing is getting at least three of those skill position guys back so TT doesn't have to do this alone. I am pretty worried about our pass defense, particularly against Luck. Gilmore keeps getting injured, McKelvin is still walking wounded, and Darby...holy Toledo, he's going to get torched. As good as the Bills defense is against the run, it won't matter if all the other guys have to do is throw up a jump ball and walk down the field after the PI penalty. I figure Corey Graham is playing safety this year because he's lost a step, but he's still probably a better CB than Darby. The over/under on this game ought to be about 60.

Golden Wheels Dubenion (pre-68) Wagon Wheels Dubenion (post-68)

The coaches have been observing all four QBs for months. Would they cut one of the three main guys, and keep Simms instead? Could be. Let's see how Simms does against Detroit. Maybe they figure Simms is just as good as Cassel as the third stringer (not playing except in a disaster), and a whole lot cheaper.

It will be interesting to see if Freddie can beat out Marshawn once again. I hate the idea that the Bills will probably finally make the playoffs and Fred Jackson won't be on the team, but I think playing for Seattle will ensure him that his team makes the playoffs. I think the NFC West is collapsing (can't credit Arizona yet, and SF is a disaster) so Seattle should skate into the division win.

I'm a Fred Jackson admirer, but if it's the end of the road, I can't feel too sorry for him. -- 34 years old, in superb physical condition. -- Beautiful family. -- Millions of dollars in the bank (I can't see Fred being one of those guys who blows through his cash as fast as he gets it). -- The good will of an entire community. I hope Fred stays in WNY. He's a smart, articulate gentleman who would be a natural on television. Look how many mistakes Steve Tasker makes and he's still getting work. (And I'm a Tasker admirer, too. What a player.)

He can wear whatever he wants if the Bills win.

Mr. WEO, I'm not saying you're wrong, but 94% sounds too high for 33 yard FGs. Do you have a link for that? Probably there is one, the NFL being so stats-crazed, so again I'm not saying you're wrong, I'd just like to see the site. Thanks.

The best shot for the Bills is to change Darby's number before every series, so Luck can't find him.

Cutting the kicker is a terrible idea. FGs are important. Go for it on 4th down, and even if you pick up the yards you still haven't scored. You have to keep going and going, giving the defense more chances to stop the drive. BUT, going for two point conversions a lot does make sense. The stats show that in past years teams averaged almost 50% on 2 pt conversions and almost 100% on 1 pt conversions. Over time, the odds are that you came out about even if you were going for 2 regularly. This year with the 1 pt moved back to snap from the 15, expect the success rate to go down. That's now a 33 yard kick, which is probably successful 80-85% of the time. Now, if you can keep converting 2 pt conversions at about 50%, you'll come out ahead going for 2 most of the time. (I can see going for 1 in particular situations, for example if you score a TD to tie near the end of the game, and just need 1 pt to take the lead, the kick has better odds.) Say a team scores 6 TDs a game. If they try six 2 pt conversions and make three of them, they'll have six points from conversions. If they try six 1 pt conversions at 80-85%, they'll make five of them, getting five points. OTOH if a team is scoring six TDs per game they're winning a whole lot anyway. If you're only getting a couple of TDs per game, a coach would really put himself on the hot seat if he loses more points by going for 2 a lot. Will teams keep converting 2 pts at about 50%? That's not clear. I think defenses will devote more time to preparing to stop 2 pt conversions, and offenses will devote more time developing plays for the situation. I can't predict which (if either) will gain an advantage from familiarity.

In case we need an objective opinion on how well he's playing:

Thurman Thomas went and played a season for the friggin Dolphins, after the Bills released him (and Bruce and Andre on the same day). Time heals all wounds, and now Thurman is back in the hallowed, all-time-favorite group. There's nothing Fred can do that will ruin the way Bills fans think about him. If he wants to keep playing and some other team picks him up, I'll wish him all the luck in the world.

This could be right, or it might not be. For some reporters, it's better to be first and wrong, than second and right. Does anyone track whether Glazer usually has the right story?

OK, I love Fred Jackson as much as anyone else does. He earned that, playing so hard for mediocre coaches and mediocre teams. I wanted to see him play in a playoff game. Well really I wanted to see him play in a home playoff game the Bills won. But Moses didn't get there either. I figure the coaches have been looking at Fred and the other RBs and all the other players for months, and they've seen enough that Fred is just not the same guy he used to be. Fred from 5 years ago makes this team, I'm quite sure. Today's Fred (and next year's Fred) aren't as good. So they're getting the roster in shape both for the last preseason game, and for the regular season, and they made a tough call. This says to me that McCoy and the other injured RBs are actually close to healed, if not actually ready now.

If Chan and Fitz stayed another year, we'd still be stuck with .. Chan and Fitz. We took our medicine and we now have a much better HC and a hugely better OC, and, it would appear, at least three QBs better than Fitz.

Who knows what the over/under should be. Depends way too much on whether Shady stays healthy. The best scenario is that Jackson cuts way back on his carries and keeps on truckin' for the rest of the year, and we'll see how the chips fall at next year's training camp.

Some guys in Goodwin's position are track athletes who want to play football. Goodwin thinks of himself as a football player athletic enough to run track also. OK, fine, he does seem willing to mix it up with the big guys on the field, he doesn't just run go routes (though maybe he should). I don't know if there's anything he can do to bulk up more than he has, because he'd lose some of the speed and more importantly the quickness that are his special advantages. Even with more bulk, a player can damage ribs, knees or elbows. CJ Spiller looked pretty well built but he broke a collarbone. It's a violent game and these things happen.

Well, if the Bills are still struggling to find slots for good WRs, this could help. With all those other guys available, they can't tie up a slot for Goodwin, but they can put him on IR (assuming broken ribs) and have the right to bring him back at some point in the year. Odds are, whatever guys they keep, one of them will get hurt, and then they can bring Goodwin back from IR. This could work out.

Are you ready for Marcel Dareus, New England Patriot, dominating our O line for half a decade, and continuing the Bills' futility in our own division? Pay the guy. For today, him sitting means nothing. I think he might actually have a sore leg, since most players are already banged up a little, at least. Or they want to see what the other guys can do, to prepare for the Colts.

I thought the competition was over when TT ran in his TD. Then EJ came out and looked great, except for one awful pass that reminded everyone what we hate about EJ. I think Cassel dinked and dunked his way out of a starting job. So, I have no idea what they're going to do. EJ looked great on his deep throws. TT's long pass plays came from receivers running after the catch -- no long throws but his quick feet are impressive. If the choice is EJ I think we're going to have to accept we'll lose a game or two we should have won because of his bad play. But we'll probably win a game or two because he did something really good. The rest will be up to the defense and the skill positions on offense. I think they keep all three on the squad and hope Simms slides through to the PS. If they cut any of the main three, that guy will be either a Jet or a Patriot the next day, and better than anyone else either team will have to start the season. The only thing I'm really worried about now is CB, and also O line depth. Darby is going to hurt us until he figures out how to play tall receivers. We need Leodis back, and soon. Never thought I'd say that but it's true. I think the Bills are going to have to blitz a lot to protect the CBs against the deep pass. As for the O line, it's hard to believe 3/5ths of that line, that handled the Steelers really well, was on the team last year. I guess replacing fat tubs of goo at guard with actual professionals was a good idea. But what if there's an injury at guard or center? Otherwise, this is shaping up as a really good team. They really killed a good Steelers team, without McCoy, Karlos, Sammie, Percy, or Robert. Holy Toledo, what will happen when those guys get back.

I suggest that the way to sort this is for the list to be topped by the guy who would be better on any other team than the guy there now. My view is that Rodgers could go to any other team and provide an upgrade, given time to practice with the personnel, adjust plays, and so on. Which QB is next, who could go to any other team other than Green Bay and make it better? Brady, maybe, if he gets to bring Belicheck along, but that's not the deal, so I would go with Luck. I think Luck would make the Steelers better but Roethlisberger would not improve the Colts. To me, that's how you make the list, and when you get to a guy you know isn't that good, you stop. Statistics are never clean. Does a QB who wins a SB win it alone? Of course not. Was Jim Kelly better than Mark Rypien? Of course he was, but the Skins won the game when they went head to head in the SB. Passing rating, and the quality of the RBs and WRs and TE on a team, are not the product of just one guy. At the top levels, the players elevate each others' games. So I would go with a subjective, personal approach. Man v man, who makes the other guy's team better? Here's my list: Rodgers Luck Roethlisberger Brady Rivers Brees (we're talking today, not in their prime) P Manning Flacco E Manning And that's it. Below this, there's a group of pretty good guys who are about equivalent in ability.

There's an important point that some have touched on, but it bears emphasis: One reason the Bills have a strong roster at almost every position except QB, is that they don't have a high-quality, HIGH-COST quarterback. The millions they're not spending on, say, an aging Drew Brees, are available to re-sign Jerry Hughes and hopefully Marcel Dareus. Think of a set of bar charts (not that kind of bar, my friends, the one that shows data), one for each team, with the bottm row for each team a particular color for the money paid to D linemen, then another color for LBs, and so on, for each position. On most teams, the color for the pay for QBs will be quite large, and the size of each color will be about the same as the other teams for the same color. On the Bills, the color for the D linemen will be larger than the average, and the color for the Bills QB will be smaller. The Bills whether intentionally or not, have chosen a model different than most other teams. How cool would it be if the Bills set the model for the league going forward, where an average (and relatively cheap) QB surrounded by a strong team can make the playoffs and even win the SB? The Ravens did it in 2000 with Trent Dilfer in the Matt Cassel role. To show how team execs get locked in on the QB-first model, the Ravens then released Dilfer.

One difference between this year and others is that there's no anticipation of picking up players cut by other teams. The Bills could go with the 53 listed here, plus or minus here or there, and have a very good squad overall, with some really strong positions. It's possible that a player cut elsewhere could catch on here, but it seems unlikely.

The winning entry is ... Adrian. Ask Kelly the Dog.

The question I have is, do you think the Colts will prepare differently for any of our QBs? None of them are really unique threats. Taylor runs better than the others but not better than others in the league. So, why bother trying to deceive the Colts?