Utah John

Well, it looks like Brady might play another 108 years, so we're all screwed. At the end of the game last night, Fox put up a list of the longest championship droughts. The longest in the NFL is the Cardinals, going back I think to the 1940s. The Lions' drought goes back to the 1950s. So it turns out we don't know from suffering, compared to Detroit. And the Cardinals keep breaking the hearts of cities just by moving, not by losing. I believe they were in Chicago, then LA, then St Louis, now back to LA.

The knock on Ragland coming out of college was a lack of speed. Maybe that is accurate, maybe not. ZB doesn't have a lack of speed from what I can see. The Bills are getting overly rich at LB, thin at DL, and really bad at DB. Perhaps a trade is in the cards. Preston Brown for a decent safety? Lorax for a down lineman?

What I've seen is a huge difference in results from game to game, with mostly the same players. I don't think it's a question of ability or talent, I think it's coaching. When Rex and crew figure out correctly what an opponent is going to try to do, they install effective schemes to prevent it, and the defense looks great. Otherwise, not. The Jets game was the worst example. Rex loaded the box to stop the run, leaving our DBs without safety help, and our guys kept getting out-jumped on high passes. Why he didn't change at halftime is a mystery to me. The first NE game wasn't a shutout only because Brady wasn't playing. Rex guessed right about what NE would try to do, and it worked. Against Miami, their RB was gashing the Bills right from the start. Our D collapsed in the 4th quarter from exhaustion due to our incompetent O, but they didn't have it figured out anyway, which is inexcusable since the same RB had over 200 yards the previous game. I'll grant you that Dareus' absence has been a huge factor, made worse by the progressive thinning of our D line over the past few years. When Schwartz was here we had enough good D linemen to have two full 4-man lines staffed with above average to great players. Now, not so much. Mario Williams was getting old anyway, but Alan Branch is now playing well for NE. Three years ago the loss of Dareus wouldn't have hurt so much. This year, he might have been the difference against Miami. It's Gilmore, eww. That's the biggest problem. And now no good safeties. Rex better figure out some great QB pressure packages or we're going to get killed week after week.

Spiller's a good guy, a good teammate. He wasn't the right draft pick for the Bills but it wasn't his fault Buddy picked him. He was a real threat when he was here under Chan. Gailey was a very good O Coordinator, just too bad that's not the job he had here. I don't wish bad things for Spiller, Gailey, or Fitz. I think all three tried hard and were upstanding citizens, but all three had weaknesses. Spiller has no vision and is indeed dumb as a box of rocks. Gailey was creative in working with the offensive talent he had but the D sucked. And Fitz, he's your guy if you want a slightly below average, no-playoff year, year after year. He has one all-pro caliber game each year (this year against the Bills), some total meltdowns, and a lot of meh games. That's just who he is. And he's still one of the best QBs we've had since Kelly, out of dozens and dozens of pretenders, so how sad is that.

I believe the mystery team is Kansas City. How did they do it? Based on their games against the Bills, they let other teams beat themselves.

I don't see a down side. I'm sure the Bills worked Harvin out thoroughly and were satisfied he's healthy and in good enough shape to contribute. Maybe not much on MNF but then the bye so it could work out well. Someone said this is a desperate move by a team that is desperate, and the Bills are certainly desperate. But saying it's a desperate move makes it sound risky and foolish. There's little risk here and a substantial potential upside.

Ragland is too slow, but I wonder about Shaq Lawson. He might have enough speed to stay close and the size to battle for the football.

The biggest unknown is Shady's hamstring. The second biggest is whether the Seahawk's offensive coordinator is any good. The Bills D has some real strengths but also some holes. It's one thing for NE with Brady and five really good receivers, plus a strong RB, to rip up the Bills. It's another thing for other teams. Only the Pats (great all around), the Jets with the Bills stubbornly not giving safety help to the CBs, and the Dolphins (still can't believe that happened) have really been effective against the Bills. Can Seattle's offense find a way? I am thinking, no. The third is, has the league figured out Anthony Lynn? I thought maybe the Dolphins did, but Shady was a shadow of himself (see what I did there?) so who knows if the Dolphins really could have stopped the regular-strength Bills. I'm thinking Seattle's D is still really great, and they'll find a way to throttle the Bills. 13-7 final score. Bills win if Shady is 80% or better, Seattle wins otherwise.

I think the Bills have given up on finding an archetype QB. 6'4", 235, cannon arm, moves a little in the pocket. There are guys around with those measurements but when the Bills get one it turns out they can't read a defense, they can't move the team, they get hurt, whatever. There are maybe 10 really good QBs like that, tops, and the rest are strugglers or imposters. So the Bills tried something different. Instead the Bills have a point guard whose job it is to dish the ball to the open guy and let him make plays, and by the way is also the best running QB in the league. Creative, out of the box, could work, if the top 5 skill guys could just not get hurt. Watkins and McCoy are elite talents, sitting and watching. Clay is above average in skill but what about that shoulder? Goodwin could be dangerous but averages more injuries than catches every year. Woods is a little above average as a #2 but isn't viable as a #1.. (Hogan is better than Woods but not worth $12M to the Bills.) (Karlos Williams really hurt the Bills. Last year's KW would be tearing it up this year but nooo.) Gillislee is average and every time he tries to go Shady we see how special Shady is. So TT is TT. He isn't Brady, he isn't Big Ben, he isn't Luck. With the team the Bills built, he would be awesome. With the team the Bills actually send out on the field, he's going to be ineffective. Then again, with that team, so would Brady, Big Ben, and Luck.

Hogan was always better than the Bills thought he was. He outplayed Woods last year but was stuck behind him on the depth chart, and couldn't move up. So the Pats offered the chance to be a starter on a great team and 12 million other reasons. He left with a chip on his shoulder and he joined the Pats with a smile on his face. Gilmore is a good player. He's not a good enough player for the role Rex wants his corners to fill. Gilmore needs safety help particularly against tall, strong receivers. The problem in the Jets game was no safety help while Rex made sure he could stop the run (which he ended up not doing anyway, Forte got 100 yards) and Fitz having his annual early-season all-pro game, and the Jets big tall strong guys out-jumping Gilmore and the rest of the Bills DBs. After the Jets game, Rex went back to safeties playing safety instead of LB, and things got better. The Bills pass D has been pretty good generally, with Gilmore often the weak link, but Brady. Brady. Yesterday was going to happen regardless. My real concern is, no good safeties left on the team. Graham is old and slow, Meeks is meek and slow, Duke is exposed now that team know that the Williams in the defensive backfield isn't Aaron. Without safety help the flaws in Gilmore's game will be exposed. The thing is, it's too early to bail on the Bills season. They have a decent chance against Seattle, to win 10-7 or something, and the schedule gets easier after that. 10-6 is a stretch but still possible. It would be crazy to give up on a season where every other AFC team than NE has serious problems. 9-7 might do it. So don't trade Gilmore. Absolutely don't cut him. Maybe Rex is as smart as he thinks he is, and he can figure out a way to make lemonade out of lemons. This. That play and the one where Hightower tackled TT 10 yards out of the field of play with no penalty called. Seriously, the Pats don't need help.

For this year, it looks like a lose-lose. Presumably the Pats figure they have enough LB depth to win, which is probably right, but it's taking a chance on avoiding injuries. Collins will help the Browns go from abysmal to terrible or maybe all the way to pretty bad. Whoopee. Probably not enough to screw up and lose the top draft pick. Long term, it's a disaster for the Browns and a win for the Pats. I'm shocked, shocked.

It isn't whether Reed plays, it's whether Dareus plays. Not just gets in the game, but whether he dominates. With the O depleted, the best chance is if the D makes plays, and a pick six wouldn't hurt.

Did you have your Drunk Typing mode turned on? In Hogan's defense, it takes a while and a lot of determination to conduct a thorough evaluation of wings options in WNY. Could be his cholesterol levels didn't let him complete the job.

Spiller had a chance to be a special back for about three years. After that, his legs weren't the same and he didn't have the quickness and burst he did early on. There was only one year when things went pretty well for him, then he got hurt, then he got cut, and the pinball machine started. He is a good guy, a good teammate, an honorable person. No hate for him here. It wasn't his fault a team that didn't need a RB picked him in the first round. He came in, did his best, and then moved on when it was clear the Bills didn't want him anymore.

Marcellus Bennett dominated our D. And that without Gronk being right, or Brady playing at all. But, hey, there's a reason they play the game, right? Depending on two foot-long tendons (McCoy's and Dareus's hamstrings) the Bills either have a shot or no shot.

The Bills have 4 wins, and in each they battled against an inferior opponent until they wore the other team out. (I include NE. I can't even remember their substitute QB's name. The Pats defense got worn down because their O was so ineffective.) Then they proceeded to pull away and win by substantial margins. In the 3 losses, two consistent factors: 1. Strong opponent D lines bottled up our running game and then shut down TT. 2. Close games where no one could make plays to win. I think this is actually Ryan ball. He wants to build a bully so he can wear other teams down. He hasn't succeeded with the Bills but the improvement is clear. This could work out OK with more skill on the O line to go with bulk. Where I think the Bills sit right now is in the second quintile. A quintile is 1/5th of the total. About 1/5th of the league is clearly better than the Bills. About 3/5th of the league is clearly or at least somewhat worse. We'll generally win about 9 games in this situation. We need our three elite players (Watkins, McCoy, Dareus) all back and all healthy in order to move up and get to the top quintile and the 10-11 win level.

Same here. With the standing Buffalo helmets.

The penalty was called for unnecessary roughness, not for an illegal hit or a crackback block. That was the correct call. I see it as Landry hitting AW with his shoulder, primarily into AW's chest and shoulder, but not into his head. That would have been legal except for the violence of the collision. It was unnecessary to lay out the other guy like that, hence the call on the field. If it's anyone's fault, it's AW's. Sorry to criticize an injured player, and a Bill, but Landry didn't come at him from behind or the side. He was coming toward AW from AW's front, maybe at 2 o'clock. Williams should be more aware of what's going on. That said, I hope AW retires. He's been a good player but more importantly a very good citizen, at least by the standards of NFL players. His mobility and perhaps his life are at stake.

Not intending to get political here but a certain presidential candidate seems to be doing everything he can to convince voters to choose his opponent. The NFL seems to be doing everything possible to get us to watch college football. It's a much better game. I'd even give the CFL a shot if it was available in Utah.

My view is and has been that TT is a pretty good QB, the Bills' best since Kelly, maybe with one year from Bledsoe better than TT so far. But is he good enough? Here's a Washington Post article about the end of their game with the Lions, very complimentary about the Lions' QB, Matt Stafford. Stafford took charge of that game and made three outstanding plays, and the Lions pulled out that victory. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2016/10/24/a-closer-look-at-the-redskins-defense-on-the-lions-game-winning-drive/#comments THIS is what we haven't seen from TT. Granted, Stafford had better receivers at the end of yesterday's game than TT had all game yesterday. Also, the rosy epidermises didn't really attack Stafford the way Miami was attacking the Bills' O line. Still, I can't think of a game where TT took charge the way true franchise QBs do.

Pissed? No, the guy's hurt, and hammies happen to a lot of players. There's no reason to assume Dareus got hurt because he wasn't in shape. Disappointed? You bet. He's an elite player on a team with only three of them. He could have prevented all those runs where the Miami O line got through to block our LBs. It would have been an entirely different game.

The offense couldn't run. Was that because Shady was hurt, or because the Dolphins D figured out Anthony Lynn? Whatever the cause, the cutback lanes Shady exploited weren't there and/or he couldn't get there even if they were. Without Shady, and without Watkins and Woods, the O had a hand tied behind its back. The O line did OK for a while until the Dolphins D could just tee off on them. With the O not able to stay on the field, the D wore down. Also of course this RB of Miami looks terrific. So many missed tackles by a good tacking Bills D. The Bills have a good roster all around, with a few special players, and they need those special players to make their engine work. All the special players were hurt. Dareus, Watkins, McCoy are all elite talents. No Dareus, nothing clogging the middle and keeping the Dolphins O line from engaging with our LBs. Without Shady or the holes that Shady got through the past couple of weeks, no running game. Without W1 and W2, no passing game except a bomb to Glass. Good job on STs. Great job by Lorax, all over the field.

The Bills traded him away, he didn't leave on his own like Hogan did. Then he got traded again. He was a fun player to watch, sometimes making spectacular plays, and sometimes taking the wrong gap on a run play and the other team gets a spectacular play. I had high hopes for him in his second season, but he was hurt before it started. And then high hopes for his third season, but we traded him. He's a good guy, a tough competitor, and he just happens to wear a different shirt now. No hate for him from here. Also he injured NE's Jimmy G so he did us a favor.

With Shady, Bills 35-10. Without Shady Bills 17-14. That's still Tannahill in the cotton candy unis. The Bills D is much better than the Steelers (next week, hell freezes over, but it's true) so they'll contain their running game, and Tannahill so we'll be OK on D. The O has me worried if Shady can't play. The fish run D is lousy but the dropoff from Shady to committee is vast. We need him on the ground to keep the ball and grind out the clock.

1. Half the teams in the AFC have a clear path to the playoffs. They just have to win out. In the Bills case, winning out makes them 14-2 and they have the tiebreaker over NE, so they have the clearest path of all. Do the Bills have some tough games? Yes, absolutely. Away games in Seattle and Oakland. It's always tough for the Bills to go to the west coast, and Seattle has a great D and Oakland has a very good offense. But neither is perfect. 2. NE deserves to be the favorite for the SB until proven otherwise. If no more injuries happen to any player on any team, NE probably has the best shot. But injuries are the wild card. 3. The Bengals and Chiefs seem to be struggling. The Texans looked lousy both times I saw them but they play in a terrible division so they might end up with a good record. I thought the Broncos looked great the first few weeks but not anymore -- what happened? Even their D is struggling now. Pitt's D is quite bad but their O is excellent. 4. The Bills have good balance between O, D, and ST, but their O is not balanced. They can't pass worth very much and they run great until they play a strong D line (Ravens, Jets) and then forget it. 5. The best news for the Bills is that their strong D front 7 is going to get better and deeper when Dareus and Shaq start playing. Darby is doing OK but Gilmore, geez, eww. 6. When will D coordinators figure out Anthony Lynn? Hopefully sometime next April.