Sisyphean Bills

Let's compare INT% of 6 QBs that played in very similar systems last season. 2.7: Brodie Croyle 3.0: Trent Edwards 3.4: JP Losman 3.6: Jon Kitna 3.9: Damon Huard 4.0: Marc Bulger Now, if we use the QB rating, we get a different picture. (It also suggests that the "4th year guy was about the same as the rookie stats wise" is rather broad stroke of the brush.) 80.9: Jon Kitna 76.9: JP Losman 76.8: Damon Huard 70.4: Trent Edwards 70.3: Marc Bulger 69.9: Brodie Croyle BTW, Cleo Lemon, Travaris Jackson, Vince Young, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, and Jason Campbell all had higher QB ratings than 70.4 in 07.

OK! Fine! I'm taking my ball and going home!

I vote for Peters as I think Chambers will get several people killed if he has to play for any length of time. BTW, I thought Lee Evans left the team last year -- had to check the program every once in a while to make sure he was still around. Yes, the offense sucks even with Peters in there. But, can you imagine Edwards getting mowed under every time he goes back to pass? The guy hasn't won any "Mr. Durability" awards in his career.

I thought they let him go because of his injury... miracle cure of bad neck, I guess. Assuming he can go, the Falcons got an excellent special teams player. Meanwhile, everything will be "Fine" here.

With the amazing talent the Bills have at WR, I can see trotting out all 6 of them every down.

I read it and discounted it because the first paragraph seems to be in direct contradiction. The rest is a placebo, tossed out there like a "don't take this personally" attached to a "you're a gullible sod." Yes, but the OTAs are not mandatory, right? And how much of a role does his agent have in this mess? These guys have agents to manage contract negotiations. So, what Brown is saying is that it would work out better if Peters took his agent out of the equation. Well, yeah, I can see that being good news from the Bills standpoint. The Bills aren't bolted to the floor; they can reach out as well.

The comparison is not only laughable, it is downright idiotic. It's basically saying, we're willing to renegotiate Jerry Ostroski and Carlton Bailey because they came in and lifted weights; but, Bruce Smith stayed in Virginia close to his family and worked out and got his knee scoped so he'd be ready in September -- the bum -- screw him!

Ever play telephone? A 5th hand story is the ultimate in reliable.

You know what? If the Bills think Peters is a "bad character guy", as Brown is trying to paint him, then let him go. Trade him for a high-motor guy that will sacrifice his off-season with his family completely for the "good of the team". Too bad you can't do it retroactively. They could've gotten a lot of draft picks for Bruce Smith back in the day.

He has leverage in that he can withhold his services. The team has leverage because they can fine him heavily, don't have to pay him if he doesn't play, and don't have to give up his rights until he plays out his contract (which doesn't happen if he doesn't play). So, yeah, he has a very poor hand and can do little other than to squawk and complain and threaten. His other leverage is the PR damage he does to the team. It is teams like the Bengals, Bears, and Bills that seem to take black-eyes on these things, while teams like the Patriots get lauded by the players and media for signing veterans at bargain basement prices.

Yep. Carolina traded for him, gave him a massive contract (at the time), and he went out and did squat -- ended up getting injured and out of football IIRC. The Panthers imploded.

John Riggins held out a year in his prime.

It seems like the concept of surrounding oneself with the best people to improve the chances for success should not be a novel concept. The default hiring of Schonert was a move made to maintain the general status quo (given Jauron's own statements), which is troubling in that the status quo was terrible and dramatic improvement is obviously necessary. In fact, maintaining the status quo flies in the face of what some Jauron die-hards argue in his defense: the hiring of Fairchild and the installation of the Martz offense was a major mistake. The off-season approach to the offense, basically to add no free agents of note at all and a 2nd round WR, also speaks to the notion that the brain trust believes the offense will flourish with a few minor tweaks.

But something doesn't add up. If there are 9 defenders in the box and Evans is double covered, that means that Reed was completely uncovered. Even if it was 8 in the box and Evans was double covered and Reed was single covered, then the offense is actually just running against a conventional defense. (There is nothing magical about "8 in the box," other than a S is playing up on the 2nd level -- 4 DL, 3 LBs, and the SS up playing the run.) This is the NFL. Ralph dropped big bags of bucks on some of these OL. Is it that they can't block or is it that Lynch can't find the holes? Or, is it that the Bills TEs and H-backs suck? Having an H-back that can't block and a TE that can't block is a serious problem; it means the RB has to beat 3 defenders instead of 1.

I'm hopeful that Turk Schonert can get this group playing better. That doesn't mean I am completely certain or even expect that it is going to happen. My optimism is based solely on the belief that the Bills have some good offensive players and that those players, hopefully, come to work in 08 and their coaches have a better plan. Continuity is about all that's left to hang your hat on, but that is a double edged sword. Continuity would usher in optimistic feelings if the offense had shown steadily improved play over the course of 07. But, it did not. So, continuity could just mean more of the same decline and poor execution. And, I'm not so quick to suspend my disbelief and assume that the only problem in 07 was Steve Fairchild.

If he gets a chance to play in 08 (not totally impossible given NFL QBs and injuries), it'll just be a chance to audition for his next team. Perhaps ironically, the current situation, and pending get out of jail free card, may allow him to play loose and not press, which always seemed to be part of his implosions IMO.

There was a thread a while back about the Bills handling of the development of their 1st round project from Tulane and whether the Bills followed some sort of textbook formula on how to fug it up. Anyway, I removed that last comment because it wasn't limited to the passing game but carried over to the running game just as well. The 08 offense of the Bills took over 1/3 fewer snaps on the positive side of the field. They took less when Edwards was in there, but not significantly so. Still, playing most of the time in your end of the field is not a recipe for success.

The problem though is Jauron being a delegator, which is usually pushed as a strength of his coaching ability. If Schonert is out of his depth, who is going to come in and help him? Or does he just become a sacrifice for saving the rest of the staff? For example, I don't see that just adding an audible system into a group that couldn't execute a dumbed down offense productively as a major difference maker. I hope Turk's doing much more than that...

Looking at the situationals, both QBs struggled to move the ball between the 20s. What is interesting: How markedly worse JPL was once he got across the 50. Most of that is getting careless with the ball, 4 INTS. Trent was very consistent regardless of field position. But throwing 2 INTs inside his own 20 -- not good. Both QBs had their horns pulled in significantly after crossing the 50. Edwards attempts plummet 35% and Losman's by 30%. Edit: Strike that last. The conclusion doesn't follow from the data.

I don't think it is quite that simple. This is the pros. A single play called almost beyond a doubt has variations as part of the play depending on the defensive reads. In the passing game, the QB is expected to make a progression of reads, the WRs are expected to make coverage reads, the OL is expected to adjust based on its pre-snap reads... Being able to execute properly the play that was called is more important than switching the play. Executed properly, the "wrong" play might not be a homerun, but it shouldn't be a cluster either. Does Turk know what he is doing? I have no idea. I'd like to think that if he is carting the lion's share of the blame for the offense that he had the lion's share of decision making as to who played, the game plan, etc. But, there are ever present rumors that Ralph Wilson meddles with QB decisions and so forth -- who knows? On the point though, it might be worth considering that Edwards really was not truly ready to go into an offense that is built around timing and throwing to windows, as we know the Coryell/Martz system is. He may be a quick study, but he hadn't played with the Bills receivers before and had no NFL experience, or experience in the system. On top of that, the line had never played together before, which no doubt had its own consequences. I tend to think that the Bills watered the O down significantly last year. Martz in running this offense has a history of not placing a huge emphasis on protecting his QB and prefers his QB to push the ball down the field rather than going to max-pro. At any rate, it will be damn interesting to see what Schonert actually does.

Well said. Now that is something I can agree with. Fairchild may not be the most creative guy, but I dismiss the notion that he is a mental slug with zero football knowledge. That's far too pat of an excuse -- but it is a convenient one since the major change on O for 08 is simply his absence.

Not a bad description. I wouldn't say "no doubt" -- I've been shocked by levels of incompetence before -- but there is a good probability that a toadstool would improve the coaching staff's collective competence.