Sisyphean Bills

Nice post.

What's sad about that is that 2 UDFA RBs are on the re-draft by production list and, of course, Spiller is not.

The wheelhouse is day 3.

I'm not quibbling with you about the structure of the contract. It's about the process and timing and rationale. What was the rush? Why sign the guy in September when it was blatantly obvious that he was struggling very badly, trying to be charitable here, to try to make an ill-conceived conversion to an OLB? Bluntly put, he has no functional role to this team if it pursues this transition to a 3-4 defense other than possibly as a mediocre 3rd down rush specialist. It's almost like a tacit confirmation -- and metaphorical kick in the crotch -- that the organization is actually seeking out and collecting these Aaron Maybin type pass rushers.

If Nix and Gailey are already at odds over the direction of the team, then Ralph should step in and fire one of them.

This logic never gets old. If they didn't re-sign him in September, they'd still be able to offer him a deal next week and based on his performance over the entire season. Furthermore, if the highlight of the deal is that he can still get cut, they could just let him hit free agency, test the market, and wave good-bye instead of giving him a nice bonus and firing him. Finally, any deal to make him the highest average paid OLB in the NFL at his age sets a precedent for all of the team's contract negotiations going forward. They paid Kelsay and now fans are wondering why Donte Whitner is upset they're not offering him a generous raise? Really?

Just throwing the data out there, brother, like you asked -- kicking the discussion along down the road a bit. I also don't have a lot of confidence at this point in the Bills scouting department and draft process. The Modrak track record, which is bordering on Millenesque, speaks for itself. Also, you're preaching to the choir about it being a team sport. Yes, a truly great player like a Peyton or an Elway at the most important position can carry a team a long ways, but it is ultimately a team sport and even the greats need the right supporting cast.

Don't forget about A.J. Green.

Yep. It's about who you pick, not where you pick.

It's entirely subjective as no criteria were set forth as what a "good pick" was in the OP. I just highlighted a few notable names is all -- guys that featured prominently on Super Bowl teams and such. There are excellent players that I didn't bold and some people will strike all sorts of postures over some of those that I did bold of course. Let's just call it what it was, a quick sort of shotgun approach to identifying some good players that went 1, 2, or 3.

Did anybody do the homework? Here's some data on top 3 picks. 09: Stafford, Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson 08: Long, Long, Matt Ryan 07: JaMarcus, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas 06: Super Mario, Reggie Heisman, Vince Young 05: Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards 04: Eli Manning, Robert Gallery, Larry Fitzpatrick 03: Carson Palmer, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson 02: David Carr, Julius Peppers, Joey Harrington 01: Mike Vick, Leonard Davis, Gerard Warren 00: Courtney Brown, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels 99: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith 98: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Andre Wadsworth So, with hands waving, one might say drafting in the top 3 gives a team about a 25-30% chance of hitting on a franchise player. (Of course, Matt Millen single-handedly may have skewed those results for this time period.

#4 actually. http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Buddy Nix isn't really at the top of my list of deceptive people, so I tend to think it all went down pretty much as he said. Wheeling and dealing picks on draft day just isn't part of his repertoire.

Well, you know that it took the Bills 10-15 seconds for the sprinter to deliver their pick up to the podium of course, so how many phone calls do you think they took before writing Spiller's name on the card and handing it to the runner?

Oh boy. Like Williams is a perfect fit for the 3-4 and the 3-4 was a perfect fit for the talent that Jauron left behind?

Yes, there are many other rookies that have made more of a contribution than Spiller. I was just trying to illustrate that the challenge wasn't one by simply looking no further than the very next guy drafted. Misfiring again, Robo. None of that has any bearing on Alualu being a more productive player this year. (BTW, that doesn't mean he is the better pick or that Spiller won't be good down the road.) PS: Thank you, btw. The fact the Jaguars got more production out of a "reach" than the Bills did out of Spiller actually serves to undermine defense of the Spiller pick.

Let's see. The next player taken was Tyson Alualu. He's started 15 games at DT and been very solid. 35 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Pretty darn good for a rookie DT, but then the Bills probably couldn't have used a guy to help clog the middle. http://www.nfl.com/players/tysonalualu/situationalstats?id=ALU059326

And maybe the rankings are deceptive.

The records aren't really all that different overall -- 5 wins vs. 4 wins in the 1st year, etc. If you think turning a playoff team into a playoff winning team is harder than turning a bad team into a playoff team, that's OK by me. Oh, and as far as discounting Parcells personally over the years, the fact is that the approach he helped put together in New York under Ray Perkins was successful enough that it has spread throughout the league. New Orleans, Miami, New England, Kansas City, the Giants, St. Louis, Atlanta, etc. As in other things, a competitive advantage that becomes ubiquitous is no longer a competitive advantage.

According to yards per game rankings, their rushing offense is only 6 yards per game (slightly) better than the Bills own.

Parcells took the Cowboys from 5-11 to 10-6 with Quincy Carter at QB in his first year. Wade took a 9-7 team with largely the same roster as the year before and went 13-3. Parcells Cowboys changed QBs in their 2nd year and took a 4 game step back. Phillips had much the same cast and took a 5 game step back in year two. In year 3, Parcells again changed QBs and the team improved by 3 wins. Phillips 3rd season was again with Romo, Whitten, and Barber though TO get the boot and there were some changes to the defense, and a 2 win improvement. Parcells 4th season saw Romo finally get his chance and in Phillips 4th year, there was again continuity with Romo, Whitten, etc., but there was an OL shake-up, the defense was tinkered with and team completely collapsed and he was fired mid-season.

Would the Patriots take a box a tape?

Rankings can be deceptive.

It's certainly pretty likely if they keep playing the way they have.

Conlon's strength was that he was a student of the game, knew how to diagnose the plays, and had instincts and knack to be in the right place at the right time. Posluszny just doesn't have that and is often caught reacting to a play that's already happened.