Sisyphean Bills

Sort of puts that whole announcement "We were never, ever, not in a million years, interested in Tim Tebow" in a different light.

Yeah. Just drafting guys that can actually play the game will be a step forward.

Well, he did play in 2009. Maybe he meant a lot of guys can relate to a 1.8 tackles per game level of production. Here's something interesting. Merriman has never made it through a full season.

Every player is given a grade by the team. Say they use a scale from 1-10. Players are given some overall point total based on all the tests, examinations, etc. Drafting BPA means that you simply pick the guy with the highest grade on your draft board. This is as opposed to say an approach where there may be 15 solid XX rated from 5.0-5.5 on your board and because of a run at the YY position there is only 1 YY left in that range but with a 5.0 grade. The next best YY might be a 2.8, let's say. Instead of taking the YY, you remain true to your board and take the XX even if you already have some XX on the team, etc. Now, Belichick would look at that situation with cold hearted glee, because someone who is desperate for a YY will likely come calling and offer him a package of picks in exchange. Belichick would trade down, not taking a reach or following the run, and maybe even missing the top XX (or 10) on his board, but full well knowing he'll get one of the top 15 XX (with little drop off talent-wise, for a cheaper contract, and with the confidence he can coach the player up better anyway), and on top of that get some other picks for players or for yet more trades as well. Of course, the contrasting approach is targeting. For example, under Levy, the Bills had 3 DTs with the same grade which they figured meant all 3 would go in the 1st round. When 2 of those DTs were taken, the Bills gave up picks to trade back into the first round to get the last remaining DT they'd given that grade.

Reading is fundamental. You blew right past the first sentence in your zealousness to miss the point. I said I like Eric Wood. I do not like spending 1st round picks and the associated cap money on the lowest impact position in the entire starting lineup. I'll type slowly. I'm not criticizing the player, I'm criticizing the plan. This is no different than the people that criticize the Spiller pick. You should take every one of those posters to task as well. Get your money's worth.

Or Marino with the Dolphins.

What if what you want is to cheer for a good football team? Having a scapegoat and a human shield for systemic dysfunction isn't all its cracked up to be for football fans that want to watch good football.

Good point. Executive management has a lot on its plate and cannot double-check everything that happens in the company. They should know that, should hire the best people below them they can, and be able to rely on the advice of those hires. All other things being equal, why hire people that make your business life harder and diminish your chances for success? Either way you look at it, either Modrak is "successful" at his job because his advice is ignored or Modrak's advice is poor and has contributed heavily to a dismal draft record that has sunk the franchise, it's not good and the results speak for themselves.

Don't get me wrong, I like Eric Wood as a player and know his broken leg set him back. But, how many teams spend 1st round picks, a pick acquired for an All-Pro LT, on the right guard position? (Hopefully, Wood can be moved to the pivot for the next decade plus.)

Disagree. It's invitational and primarily helps/hurts players that aren't already on the top of most draft boards. (Early entry juniors that fall in that area should stop listening to dumb agents trying to make a buck off them.) If the juniors want to play in the Senior Bowl, they can stay in school another year. On the other hand, if a team can't really evaluate players until they see them play in a couple of real games, then maybe it would help.

Oh, you mean like the Marshawn Lynch plan.

Good article. Even sounds vaguely familiar. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/125860-gaughans-indictment-of-modrak/page__view__findpost__p__2082852 "Let's get lucky" ?

Yeah, but his football "people" talked about the need to add a QB. http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/article323639.ece

Surprised he had to sell his team?

Hopefully, Troup is our legit 3-4 NT, because that position is as thin as air this year.

Agreed. The problem is that the draft is the most important means for building a team and sustaining success. The Bills have butchered their drafts and it has led them to being the 3rd worst team in football this past season. If the solution is as simplistic as having Nix pull down names, then our resurgence to relevance is imminent and much rejoicing will ensue.

Not sure where I said it was the "whole story". Without some omniscient view of people's thought processes, I don't think anyone could ever understand the "whole story". Does that mean we can turn a blind eye to results because we don't truly know the "whole story"? I'm being critical of Modrak's record in my points because I don't think the Bills drafts under his watch have been anything but below average. They draft busts early, and hit rarely in the middle and late rounds. Is it totally his fault? Hardly. And I never claimed it was. I fully understand he is but one man in a team. I do think he should at least share in some of the blame and not be given a free pass simply because he hasn't been fired yet. Instead of the negative premise, "he has not been fired, therefore...", I'm trying to see what he has accomplished in football terms and just not seeing many highlights. He's obviously escaping criticism from his bosses. On the other hand, it's far from clear that Ralph fires everyone or that he really fires the correct people from a football perspective. I think a few people would argue that firing Bill Polian wasn't a shrewd football move. You're right that there are a lot of other issues -- let's call them business issues -- involved. Again, it's clear that Ralph does not fire everyone. When Butler quit/was fired, he took many of his guys with him (including Nix). Donahoe brought in a new crew and many of those people are still here (including Modrak). So, the mass firings and house cleanings are where? Wilson has shuffled the GM position around and has always had a short fuse with coaches that don't perform, but he doesn't seem prone to lighting up the whole organization. The last house cleaning being Butler's departure. Obviously. And, yes, impatiently blowing up coaching staffs is a problem, not just for the coaches, but for the scouts and players as well. [Edit: Some brief anecdotes as well. Modrak himself said he messed up with Mike Williams. Levy said that they had given Ngata and McCargo identical grades. Donahoe said that Losman was graded as a first-rounder on par with Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers and higher than all prospects in the next draft, which included Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the Bills just need a rabbit's foot. ]

Let's compare Modrak's record in Buffalo to the Steelers from 2002-2008 (we fall back 3 years to get a more accurate assessment of long-term impact of picks). Let's break the draft into 3 brackets: rounds 1-3, rounds 4-5, rounds 6-7 for convenience. Now let's list the "productive" players in those brackets, I'll cross out names that the Bills have given up on (i.e., stop gap fillers). (I did this very quickly, so I may have missed some players.) Modrak Bills: 1-3: Josh Reed, Kelsay, Evans, Whitner, Lynch, Pos, Edwards, McKelvin 4-5: McGee 6-7: Ellison, Bell, Johnson Steelers: 1-3: Simmons, Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Starks, Miller, McFadden, Holmes, Timmons, Woodley, Mendenhall 4-5: Foote, Taylor, Colon, Sepulveda 6-7: Kemoeatu So, we see that the Steelers also get some players in the late rounds, but they hit on so many players early that most of their late rounders cannot crack the lineup.

Not too complicated. Drafted Spiller, they play Fred Jackson. Drafted Aaron Maybin, they play anyone else. Drafted McKelvin, they play other corners. Drafted James Hardy, they cut him and play Johnson and Nelson and ... Drafted Chris Ellis, they cut him and play anyone else. Drafted Marshawn Lynch, they play Fred Jackson and dumped him for a 4th rounder. Drafted Trent Edwards, they cut him and play a journeyman. Drafted John McCargo, they play anybody else. Drafted Ashton Youboty, no impact. Drafted Roscoe Parrish, ... he returns punts, but now we got Spiller. Drafted JP Losman... When you draft bust after bust after bust, you have to play somebody. That doesn't mean they hit a gold mine. I may cheer for Stevie Johnson, for example, but I'd be kidding myself if I said there weren't real flaws in his game.

Actually, I think the consensus choice was a terrible way to run a war room. It eliminates players based on passion and leaves you picking the kid that nobody has a strong opinion on. This may come as a shock to some, but even Bruce Smith was not perfect coming out of college. If the war room was run by consensus, the Bills would've passed on him because one of the numb nuts would've been chirping about how Smith was too small and overweight. I don't give Modrak or the scouting a pass because some late rounders have gotten playing time. I've said it numerous times before, somebody must play. It only underscores just how bad they are that they have to use 5th and 7th round stop gaps to plug holes in the dike because none of their top picks can play.

Or maybe it's high risk, low reward. If the Bills don't plan like Merriman is not going to be available to play, then the risk is high(er); and, given the way he has played recently, even if he gets on the field, he stands (pun intended) a good chance of being little more than a JAG. BTW the contract had guaranteed money.

Don't mind him. His brain has freezer burn.

Mr. Negative, If you want to be cheered up consider that they extended Chris Kelsay as well. Why worry? When have the Bills ever been wrong about anything regarding football anyway?

He's to be the chalk cornerstone of our future Super Bowl teams.

The guy has set the board here for 9 years (edit: this will be his 10th year) and 3 years in Philadelphia. He set the board means that he went over each player, signed off on their final grade if not ranked them himself, bracketed them with a group of players that he thought would be available at the Bills pick, and placed those names in their groupings on the Bills big board. For 1st round picks it would be highly irregular if he didn't scout every name personally. Sure, we don't know who he'd have selected out of those groups, but we have abundant evidence of who was in those groups and how effective his overall stocking of the board has been. Does it really take another 200 picks or more to figure it out? How many outstanding football players have the Bills drafted the past 10 years? How many elite players fell in our laps after a run at a position? It's all ample evidence as to the scouting department's effectiveness. Ask the owner: "Our drafting has been terrible."