Johnny Hammersticks
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Posts posted by Johnny Hammersticks
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It shouldn't even be a debate. Ponder is a better athlete than Fitz. And in regards to Ponder throwing a long ball. Yes, I've seen him do it enough times to know that he has the arm strength to make every NFL throw with enough velocity. Case in point.
youtube.com/watch?v=B-Jar435rnc
So which point were you trying to illustrate there? Was it that Ponder is unequivocally a better athlete than Fitz, or is it that he possesses the arm strength to make every NFL throw? What I saw was a QB with average speed waddle away from pressure and make a pretty good 50 yard throw. This was just ONE play against perennial power...South Florida. Case in point? I think you would need to take a look at a little more film before you could make any of those assertions.
Look...I'm not knockin Ponder. I think he is a smart, "coachable" QB with average athleticism, as well as, average arm strength and accuracy. The problem I have with drafting him in rounds 1-3 is...I done see how he is a significant upgrade over Fitzpatrick. Not significant enough to warrant using one of those three first picks. If he is still around in rounds 4 or 5 they heck yeah...at the very least he will be a solid back-up.
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If we don't think Fitz has the tools to take us to the SuperBowl then we should draft the best QB that does! (If that's Newton or Gabbert I'm good with it..if the organization believes we got the right guy! It's hard enough with the realization that most drafted QB's are not ready out of the gate in their rookie season to start. To win a Superbowl is the WHOLE reason the teams play the game! Borrowing a former coaches phrase,"You play to win the game." If Fitz is Gailey's starter this year, that means any rookie QB will only get reps (barring injury) in practices. It will take probably 2 yrs in development (or more) in that scenario which means if the Bills do put together all the other pieces to become a contender in a year or two, (which I'm not optimistic to date) the one piece of the puzzle you don't want to be missing or delay further would be at the QB position, especially due to the lengthy learning process of the position.
In the (lately) pass happy NFL the QB is the most vital component of a team. Just look at the Superbowl QB's this year, last year the same holds true! Yes, we have many holes, and we do need a good DT to stop the run, because that is killing our ability to stop teams on third down, and also prevents us for controlling time of possesion, therefore; limiting our offensive opportunities as well. It was not Troy Polmaulu (sp?) of Pittsburgh, or the Packers Clay Matthews that were game changers in the Superbowl. It came down to Rothlesburger made costly interceptions in the game, and Aaron Rodgers threw 3 T.D.'S and limited his mistakes that was the DECIDING factor in the Superbowl.
Basically, in analogy form it's like each year we replace parts for our car. We drafted a RB, and traded away a functional RB. Is that car really any better? What was the differential in yards of each RB? Lynch may have been better? You can argue that point, but you can't prove it based on production. (personally I couldn't stand Lynch!).
But are we better for doing all that? Still the same car!
The year before, we buy a new part...(Maybin)..a one year wonder part which is a pwr steering pump..it's a little smaller than (A. Schobel) the other part was, but based on one year of testing is suppose to operate better, (Just ask the NAPA representative who swore by the part..(Poz)..a little quicker to deliver the fluids to steering components of the vehicle. Unfortunately, it just hasn't performed well at all...we've given that pump a 2yr break-in period and it looks like that steering pump will have to replaced once again. What a waste it was buying that pump to begin with! Is our vehicle any better because of it? No, it's probably worse!
All these parts is just part of a circle of self-destruction of the Bills franchise. Even as we get new parts, we are only replacing parts that weren't orignial factory parts. Castoffs, or parts that were cheaper than the competition uses. Nix only believes in mid grade Free agents, he doesn't believe big name free agents will have the impact to make a difference. I don't believe him for a minute! What it means is that he is constrained financially by what he is allowed to do by the owner and will plug gaps with marginal talent or has beens like Shawn Merriman who once was a dominant force in the NFL. The Bills strategy has not differed much from the Sabres philosophy the past few years under Goliosono.
The second part of the circle of the Bills self-destruction is that the past several years when a player of significance is up for a new contract as a freeagent, the Bills do not make a significant enough offer to retain the player. So instead, we lose players like Jabari Greer, Leonhard, Antwoine Smith, Pat Williams, Nate Clements, etc....players that are our very good players. When this occurs it creates another hole in our roster that is self-imposed and forces us to draft a player at that positon or find a street freeagent of marginal talent to replace a player that was better, therefore; degrading the overall talent base of the team a little more!
So what can be learned from my lenghty rant about what ills the Bills?
#1. The QB is the brain center, the engine of the car, and without superior talent at the positon we will never bring home the bacon!
#2. Management can't afford to create more holes on your team because you don't want to pay to retain talent, it's more expensive to replace equal talent in the end, and if your M/O is to stay within budget constraints you are instead often degrading talent!
#3. The main point though is good organizations remain good as it all boils down to ownership and the williness to spend enough to succeed! ie: Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, etc..
Note: Based on ownership, I don't forsee the Bills using their #3 pick on a QB as a QB selected that high in the draft is going to require a lofty financial committment that this organization is not accustomed to delivering.
Instead we'll replace a waterpump, an alternator, a battery, instead of replacing the engine.
One might argue that Fitz is a pretty darn good engine, and why would you replace a perfectly good engine when you have a blown alternator, bald tires, a leaky radiator, and a failing transmission?
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It's a good bet he'll be one of the Juniors getting a hard look.
I certainly hope so. If Julius Peppers and Lawrence Taylor met, fell in love, and procreated a child...that child would grow up to be Robert Quinn. I want him in a Bills uniform next year.
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I think they will load up on LB's in the draft .... makes perfect sense. The DLine is set with Wiliams, Edwards, Kelsay and the expected maturation of Troupe and Carrington. They could use a heftier starting NT (frees up Williams to play DE), but there isn't one in this draft. If they want they can go after Miami's for a price, or take a flyer on Shaun Rodgers for nothing.
Linebacker, the real core of a 3-4 scheme, is a complete mess. At ILB, we have no idea how Merriman will come back after injury, and we have no idea if Poz will even be on the team. We have no quality OLBs.
At the same time, there's no LB worthy of a top 3 pick.
So I hope the draft goes AJ Green Rd1, 3 LBs in our 4 picks in rounds 2 thru 4 (the other pick a RT), CB Rd 5, BPA rounds 6 & 7.
Phil Taylor would fill that role pretty nicely
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Robert Quinn???????
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Paea is going to strictly be a DT in a 4-3. And Ponder is actually a very good athlete. A much better athlete than Fitz is. But okay..
Agreed that Paea is best suited to play DT in the 4-3. I don't know if I would say that Ponder is a "very good" athlete, however. I would say, based on what I've witnessed, that he and Fitz share similar athletic abilities. Also, have you ever seen Ponder throw the long ball? It's enough to make you throw up. Looks like a wounded duck floppin through the breeze. No thanks to Ponder unless he lasts to round 4 or 5 (which I see as being a good possibility).
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I'd like Rudolph to fall to the 2nd. Sheppard in the 3rd would be nice also.
It'd be really nice if Rudolph fell to the 2nd (doubt it though), but do you think Colin McCarthy might slide to our pick in the 4th? If this were the case, I would prefer taking the best OT available in round 3 and then going with McCarthy in round 4.
I'd like to see it play out like this...
1. Marcell Dareus DE Alabama
2. Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame
3. DeMarcus Love OT/OG Arkansas
4a. Colin McCarthy ILB Miami
4b. Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech
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IMO...QB is more like a P4 of P5 need for this team at this point in the rebuilding process. This draft seems to be very thin with QB talent. In other words...either you shoot for the moon and take a QB (if you love him) with #3, or forget about it all together. Perhaps bring in a guy like Alex Smith to back up Fitz in the interim. I would put TE, ILB, OT, and probably even CB ahead of QB if I were ranking positional needs.
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Personally, I wouldn't take any of these QB's in the first round. I would take a shot at Mallett if he lasted until our pick in the 2nd, but that likely will not happen. Ponder showed well at the senior bowl, and now everyone is jumping on his bandwagon. I'm not so impressed. He seems like a smart player, and makes good short to intermediate range throws. I question his ability to throw the deep ball, however, especially in the swirling winds at the Ralph.
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If you can get reasonable value for him, of course you trade him. He is on the downside of his career, and hasn't played like a #1 receiver since 2008. Oh yeah...and don't give me that crap about how he is so good, he draws coverage to his side of the field and frees-up other receivers. If he is so good, then why is he not producing like a #1 receiver? He had an excuse for his lack of performance when TE was under center, but he has no excuse for his lack of production this season.
I'd take a high 3rd rounder or an early 4th rounder for him.
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Trent Dilfer has a total man crush on Cam Newton. He was very impressed with his media workout today. Trent could not believe how hard he made it and into a stiff breeze. He thinks that he will rocket up draft boards. Trent also was amazed at his size. Trent said his own measurements of 6-4 230 and was dwarfed by Cam. I for one would not mind Buffalo taking a chance on a modern day QB. That is what Cam is. I for one love the fact that he is a winner........
The comparison to Mike Vick is not fair Cam is just a much bigger much stronger man. Mike might be faster and the better athlete I will not doubt that. Cam is like a power forward playing QB. You can compare him to Jamarcus Russell physically this is true. Even in character this also might be true in that it is spotted. I for one think that Cam Newton has always thought he would be great and he has taken advantage of that from day one. I also think that he does not want one contract. But multiple contracts. If we pick him third we had better be ready to pay him at least as much as the first pick in the draft. QB premium. I would not be heart broken about this pick. A QB who one 2 national championships.
He will not make one tackle on defense this is true. I do not see this kid being a looser in the NFL. If we pass on him I think we will regret it. Pick him if you can.
Maybe he could. Given his measurables (6'6" - 255 - 260) perhaps he could contribute in other ways while learning the system. Certainly on special teams, but maybe give him a shot at linebacker? This is the ONLY way I would draft Cam Newton at #3. Unless the Bills think he starts from day 1.
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Robert Quinn #99 15 time probowler future Hall of Famer!!!!! see ya Marcus.
Beat me to it.
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I suppose the Bills didn't get burned enough with Aaron Maybin, now you want to draft a player that didn't play a down all 2010 due to a suspension, guess that doesn't sound any alarm bells or send any red flags to you guys....
http://nwe.scout.com/2/1027958.html
Quinn could easily and probably will get drafted before Ryan Kerrigan, but without playing in 2010 due to some off-the-field issues, there certainly are some risks.
Granted, Quinn has physical talent to spare. That said, it remains to be seen whether he has progressed enough mentally on the football field to be able to transition to a very complicated 3-4 system.
"This [former] tarheel might be one of the biggest "boom or bust" guys to come out in a while"
Sam Bradford only played about a game and a half of football during his junior season. He certainly transitioned well to the NFL. Just sayin...
Oh yeah...and then there's Dez Bryant.
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I like how Nix emphasizes he was a 3rd rounder to make it seem like he's a decent player.
Kind of like some GM talking up Maybin as a 1st rounder after he gets signed somewhere else next year.
Although Nix did talk him up by emphasizing that he was a 3rd round pick, Urbik really didn't need it. I thought Urbik played really well before his injury. I remember wanting him badly in 2009, and when we scooped him off Pittsburgh's practice squad my jaw almost hit the floor. I hope he stays healthy, and plays well enough to be our starting RG for years to come.
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Ahhh so I got the 34% but missed the iq test end. I took more math than psych- it's been a few years though. I think generally the point I was making stands even though the numbers are slightly off. If you are below average intelligence it will be harder to win in the NFL, especially against other top players, in complex schemes. All other things equal, which they never are, I would take a smarter qb.
Based on the quarterbacks from the past 10 super bowls and their performance on the Wonderlic....you may be right.
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The rule of thumb I hear is double the score and add 60 to get close to the IQ. That'd make a 20 roughly a 100 on an iq test. If I remember correctly every 10 pts off points you a standard deviation above or below the norm. Not having taken stats in awhile, so my numbers may be off but that would roughly put a 25 at an iq of 110, or 84th(?) percentile.
It would put 15 at 90 and roughly 16th percentile. Obviously with a test this short, a few lucky guesses, or just some luck on content can make a big difference, and as you get out towards the ends of the spectrum I'd trust that conversion a little less and just take it as exceptionally high or low.
That said, I do believe you can be dumb as rocks and just "get" the way football works. It would be tough to be a leader of men if you start getting into that range though. With 50 questions and 4 answers to choose from 12.5 is what you would expect if you were randomly guessing. At somepoint around 10 you have to start questioning if the person is illiterate.
Standard scores have a mean of 100 and a standard deviation, or meaningful difference, of 15 points (with the exception of the Stanford Binet scales that have a SD of 16 points). Approximately 68% of people who are administered an IQ test score within one standard deviation of the mean (85-115).
I was forced to take a lot of stats and psychometrics classes in grad school
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What is this? I don't even...
For once Bangarang, I am in complete agreement with you....I am at a loss for words.
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Jeeze - the GUIDELINE didn't turn out to be a rule. With stats you are trying to account for variability, and this guide seems to do it very well for 3 statistics. That's all the post was about. I'm sure you can name 5 failures that fit it just as easily. Doesn't make your post insightful.
Ps- minus Bradshaw, how many superbowls did they combine for? Might I add he is the only qb who's score wouldnt be a bust in a game of blackjack to EVER win the big one.
Soooo.....what your saying is that these QB's (Kelly, Marino) with lower than average Wonderlic scores are good enough for the hall of fame, but they don't necessarily have the aptitude to win the "big one?" I'm not following your logic.
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Matt Leinart should have been an NFL success. 64.8 completion perectage, 35 on the wonderlic, 30+ college starts. Where does this writer mention him in the article? I wish it was this simple to predict NFL success or failure.
Notable QB Wonderlic scores:
Brett Favre - 22
Steve McNair - 15
Vinny Testaverde - 17
Jim Kelly - 15
Dan Marino - 15
Terry Bradshaw - 15
You can take statistics and twist them to make them say what you want for the most part. I'd say there's more to explain a successful NFL QB than these three categories. This writer had way too much time on his hands to come up with this theory.
A bit off topic, but...
I just saw that Frank Gore scored a 6 on the Wonderlic! Is this guy a drooler of what?!
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Guess I'm a little scared that Fairley and Bowers only produced at a high level for 1 year. Dareus hasn't really produced at a high level for a full season. Did a light go on permanently or did they just smell the money? Peterson and Green have been studs basically their entire collegiate career, and Miller has done it multiple seasons. Plus Miller allowed himself to get scrutinized and coached by an NFL staff in the Senior Bowl and stood up to the test. Sure, any guy could bust, but it just seems like Peterson, Green, and Miller are surer bets.
It's a shame that Bills fans have this instilled skepticism (I call it Post Traumatic Maybin Syndrome) when it comes to drafting players who haven't established a solid "body of work." There are several players in this draft (i.e., Dareus, Fairley, & Quinn) who have the potential to be great NFL players. At the very least Fairley and Dareus, who were both dominant in the SEC, should get the benefit of the doubt...IMO.
Another thing to remember about these guys from top NCAA football schools....they often are buried in the depth chart until their junior or senior year. It's not that they couldn't have put up similar numbers earlier in their career, it just that they weren't given the playing time.
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LEFTOVERS
Amen to that!!! I have a heapin mound of taco dip, about two dozen wings, and a lasagna pan full of meatballs that didn't even make it to the oven! Not to mention a grip of booze that was left behind by drunk people. Oh happiness
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I don't think we need to add another RB, but I'll say Noel Devine from WVU
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Kind of warming to Miller. Sounds like he has a higher floor than most of the guys we could take at #3. Wouldn't have a problem with Peterson or Green either. Guys like Bowers, Fairley, and Dareus might have higher upsides and be more a position of need, but with our recent draft history, I'd be happy taking the guy with the lowest bust potential.
So...what's your formula for determining the players with the "lowest bust potential?" In my opinion, a player like Miller has a higher potential for being a "bust" than players like Fairley and Dareus (notice I left out Bowers) because Miller will be asked to play a different position. Fairley and Bowers have already proven that they could play any position on the defensive line....short of DE in the 4-3 of course.
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While he may be just one of those "exception to the rule" players, I think I saw somewhere that Dan Marino got a 15 or 16 on the Wonderlic. That's on par with Leodis McKelvin's score! Apparently, you don't need to be a super genius to be a successful NFL quarterback.
QB of the future.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Johnny Hammersticks
Actually, Ponder is widely criticized for having "merely average" arm strength. Another criticism is that he struggles throwing the deep ball. Fitz is no Randall Cunningham, but he has better arm strength than Ponder.
Linky
This is just one scouting report...do some research.
"poor man's Chad Pennington"