billsfan89

He's lost a step the last two years. The 2023 playoff run was his last consistently elite stretch. 2022 he was still a very good dynamic weapon in KC and was their go to offensive weapon in a Super Bowl run both in the regular season and in the playoffs. In 2023 he was not nearly as good in the regular season but seemed to be able to "turn it on" so to speak in the playoffs and while in the 2023 playoffs he wasn't quite what he was in 2022 he was 90% there and still a very potent weapon for them. But in 2024 he was just not very good outside of the divisional round game against the Texans. His regular season stats were good but considerably down from what he did in from 2016-2022 when he was putting up consistently elite numbers. And outside of the Texans Divisional Round game Kelce had a dud playoff run. 2 catches 19 yards in the Conference Championship and 0 in the Super Bowl. And he looked noticeably different outside of the Texans game a game where he looked fresh coming off a 3.5 week layoff. I think Kelce at age 35 he could sort of pull a Kawhi Leonard and load manage his way into being an above average regular season player who just "turns it on" in the playoffs. But for one he's a year older coming off back to back 20 game NFL seasons (post season and regular season) and in 2023 he started the year banged up, it wasn't necessarily intentional that he coasted and just turned it on. He just got healthy after an early season injury. I think it is better he hangs it up and calls it a HOF career, he's among the best TE's to ever do it. He's unlike to at age 36 after having played 57 games in 3 straight seasons is going to turn around and get better after two down regular seasons and a bad playoff run.

LB this team is solid at, Milano, D. Williams, and Bernard are starting caliber players while Specter is a solid backup. They also drafted Ulo in round 5 last year seems like decent back end competition. I would like to see the Bills add some depth players there. I think adding a bigger LB to play in "heavy" packages is necessary. I think you can find a cheap vet to add that kind of specialist while then adding in some back end depth with a later round pick to compete with Spector and Ulo. I agree no major investments needed, just add some back end depth and maybe a run stuffing specialist which is a cheap add. The Bills have a good top 3 in Milano, Williams, and Bernard with Spector and Ulo some depth behind them.

From my understanding of these hires a lot of these new coaches aren't coaches McD has worked with before?

This hire plus the cornerbacks coach from NE that the Bills added to the staff seem like good hires. Have there been any other significant hires?

Not too high up on the individual prospects but seems like Joe B hit all the Bills major needs high up accurately assessing what positions need higher draft picks.

I think Daquan can still contribute in a rotational role, he's just not going to be the anchor that he once was which is fine he's older and a bit banged up but as a rotational one tech you are not doing poorly.

Gotta start high in negotiations. That being said it is not a realistic ask either. I suspect the Bills will be comfortable giving Cook a 2 year extension that tacks on a little bit more to his current remaining year. Probably be comfortable adding 2-3 million for Cook this season and then giving him a 16-17 million dollar two years after that.

With Carter and Oliver the Bills are set on quicker interior DT's. They kind of are stuck with D.Jones I'm fine with him a rotational DT at his age a bit past his prime but he can still be a decent backup/rotational 1-tech. But they need to bring in 2 big bodies at DT. Gotta keep from getting routinely gashed up the middle when the team plays tougher rushing attacks.

I think if the Bills resign Hamlin having a trio of Hamlin/Rapp/Bishop is more than serviceable at safety esp because I think Bishop will be a good safety as I think he looked better the more games he got to the point where I think he was solid in the Ravens and KC playoff games. I do think that if they resign Hamlin to a modest contract they could add a 4th round pick for depth and development and role with what they have there. I think the Bills are gonna be better off spending their premium draft/cap resources on the defensive line and corner as there's only so much cap space and draft picks you have to work with. Ideally you can just address all your needs impactfully. But realistically you have to make less investments elsewhere. And I think upgrading safety is something that's going to be more of a luxury and might not be necessary compared to more urgent needs.

Not sure about Carter and Simmons but Suh and Williams weren't NT's, they were more so pass rushing 3 tech DT's. But Vita Vea was mostly thought of as a NT and he's been a fantastic pick for the Bucs.

It's a pretty objective fact that the program which was implemented in the 2000's under George W Bush was a massive success...

Stock trading Congress people is a big problem, but that also doesn't mean that there's a long list of federal bureaucrats becoming millionaires many times over for unexplained reasons. They literally named one federal employee who had a big jump in net worth and there's numerous possible explanations for that like someone getting a big inheritance or their spouse making a lot of money at their profession or receiving some sort of settlement for a spouse or family member. Yeah if you got thousands or at least hundreds of examples of this then this is really concerning but this isn't some unfathomable situation where one example means this is widespread. The US AIDS prevention program has saved tens of million of lives in Africa it's a very small portion of the federal budget and tremendously helpful towards US Diplomacy. I think there's a lot of Americans that view that program as being worth it. Of course some don't which is fine but its not a slam dunk either.

I actually liked Bishop as the season went on, by the time he plugged in for the last two playoff games he looked solid. Give him another off-season to learn from his experience and get in another camp/pre-season and I think he's gonna be a good player.

"But all those bureaucrats making $180k a year with a net worth of 35 million? Meh." It's one person they mentioned, maybe they have a spouse that makes a lot of money or received a large inheritance? The idea that you can single out one person as having a high net worth working for the government as some sign that they are selling data is a rather large leap to take. Don't they send condoms out for HIV prevention which has been vastly successful? Seems like context is important.

Crosby at age 28 will hopefully give the Bills 3-4 years of high end production adding that impact pass rusher will set the table for the defense in a big way. If your defensive line is causing pressure with just your front 4 the coverage you are playing is a lot less relevant.

I think Beane's gotta make his second Diggs move. He's gotta make a big splash to land a Maxx Crosby type impact difference maker. D-line in the draft should be there but it is hard to get rookie D-line players to make huge impacts. Not saying you don't get players drafted later in round 1 or beyond who won't make an impact but that's very rare for a rookie DL player esp one drafted not around the top half of round 1. Beane's been pretty good at drafting from 2021-2023 (and early returns on 2024 are solid) but he's not hit "home run" picks. It's been a lot of doubles and triples and some singles but not a home run. And it's going to be hard to get a major impact from a draft pick right out the box. Offer pick 30, 208, and a 2026 3rd that could escalate to a 2nd for Maxx Crosby then take a DT and DE in round 2 as well that's a nice way to sure up the D-line short and longer term.

The Bills come in "tight" but the Bills also have a lot more flexibility to create space than they did last year. If they can get Von and Knox to adjust their contracts the Bills should be in good position by the time they hit free agency should be able to have 40-60 million in space on the cap. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/_/year/2025

Jenny gave you her number too?

I would say McVey is better, McVey has a Super Bowl and has overachieved with his roster the past two seasons. John Harbaugh also has a Super Bowl (albeit a long time ago by NFL standards) and a lot longer of a success track record. I would also take Sean Peyton over Nick Siriani. Peyton in addition to his run with NOLA being great showed he could rebuild a team behind a rookie QB. So that would be 4 coaches (Reid in addition to those 3) I would take over Siriani. I would honestly say you could also argue Tomlin over Siriani. Tomlin hasn't had much playoff success recently but if you handed Tomlin the stacked Eagles rosters I would say that he would probably be able to consistently make deep playoff runs. I would also say that you could argue coaches who haven't won a Super Bowl who I would take over Siriani in McD, Jim Harbaugh, and Dan Campbell. TLDR: Reid, John Harbaugh, Peyton, and McVey are firmly better while you could argue Tomlin, McD, Jim Harbaugh, and Campbell are better. Also possible to be a much harder NFC next season. In their own division the Commanders could rival them as they have a rookie QB coming off a great season and the Commanders will be able to add more pieces to have a more complete roster. And while I don't think the Cowboys are going to be contenders they could give them 2 tough games rebounding from Dak's injury. The Lions will not be an infirmary on defense and will pose a big threat. While the Rams who took the Eagles to the limit in the divisional round will be able to add some more pieces. I also think the Bucs and Packers are tough teams. There's also the possibility of a 49ers rebound. The NFL is so insanely hard to predict. The issue with the Eagles is that while Hurts is a good QB he needs an elite roster to win and like last year showed it's a bit hard to win if you have a positional group hit hard by injury or regressing unexpectedly.

The Bills massively overachieved this season despite eating a lot of dead cap via gutting a lot of veteran talent. Seems like McBeane proved this season they deserve a shot to take a roster that is already very good and add the final pieces to get over the top. This team was in the middle of a 17 year playoff drought in McD's first season and McD broke that drought with a team that was massively undertalented. The Bills showed prudence as an organization and didn't over invest in repeating those results and gutted the team so that in 2019 they could give Josh more talent. In 2020 they added a big piece in Diggs and the Bills were contenders. There will come a point where McD needs to go, but I think this season shows that McBeane may know what they are doing more so than fans who just want to fire coaches and GM's with great track records because they can't think of any other legitimate reasons why teams don't win a Super Bowl so just fire the coach and replace them with someone else who they will just blame for arbitrary reasons. Another big reason I don't see the need to move on from McD just yet is because McD has adapted as a coach. He was too conservative he's now one of the more aggressive coaches on 4th down and other in game decisions. He was too loyal and he has since proved he's willing to move on from coordinators and assistants not getting the job done. He's even brining in coaches from other organizations and schemes to expand his coaching staff. Even in 2023 when that article came out he adjusted his coaching style to be different and the team rallied around him to rattle off 5 straight to end the season and win the division and two seed. If McD was doing the same thing over and over again being too conservative and unwilling to move on from assistants while also being very ridged in his approach I would say your point might be taken. But I just don't think that's been the case at all.

It's the same formula the Giants used twice to beat Brady and a lot of other top QB's in the playoffs. Have an elite D-line that can consistently generate pressure with the front 4. The Bills issue is that they consistently have a "good" but not elite D-line. McBeane made a move in 2022 to add Von who was averaging a sack a game until he got hurt. The Bills need to make a big trade to get a "war daddy" pass rusher. Slot every DE down a slot. Groot as your lead DE, that's decent, but Groot as your DE2? That's very good. I think it is going to vastly improve the Bills offensive line if they can find a big nasty DT in the draft and if they can get an elite edge rusher like a Maxx Crosby added via trade.

We can quibble over the defense against the Ravens, however I think there's a sense of agreement on the need for an elite talent along the defensive line and a high draft pick or two spent there. There needs to be a difference maker added to the defensive line. If you hypothetically added a Maxx Crosby to the group that's going to be massive it puts Groot as your number two DE and that's very good. It slots AJE and Von (if he is willing to take a massive pay cut) into depth/rotation roles while allowing Solomon another year to develop and hopefully take AJE's situational role. If you add a big 1-Tech DT to replace Austin Johnson and add another DT in round 2 to pair with Oliver/Jones/Carter you have the makings of a stronger interior D-line. The Bills defensive line has been "good" the Bills routinely finish very high in total sack rankings and usually have good metrics in pressures and other totals. I don't put much stock into 10 sack players as the Bills rotate so much that individual sack totals become deflated. However, the Bills D-line also lacks elite players. Lots of good and above average players but nothing dominant either. Just adding 1 big time difference maker like a Maxx Crosby is what this team needs.

Yes, this is the off-season where you leave no stone unturned. Trade pick 30 plus other stuff for Maxx Crosby, sign a good vet corner and 1 Tech DT, and find a way to get a true WR1. Not gonna be easy but there's no tomorrow with Josh on this roster. You took the "step back" to clear the cap and add capital this past season and you got farther. Now you have a great team in place it just needs those last few pieces.

The defense played well against Baltimore, "they never punted" is a very flawed way of looking at that game. There weren't a lot of offensive possessions in that game. The Ravens had 8 possessions in that game. The defense forced 3 turnovers and a pair of field goals on 8 possessions. The defense also gave up 3 TD's but did stop the two point conversions on two of them. Considering the level of competition and how insane that Ravens offense had been most of the season holding the Ravens to 25 points is pretty good. Not an elite effort but not a bad one. I do think the defensive line is an area where the Bills need to be elite and they are just consistently "good" along the defensive line. I think the Bills are going to have to trade for a "war daddy" pass rusher. Maxx Crosby would be my bet. Crosby and Groot with AJE, Von (if he's willing to take a massive pay cut), and Solomon is a good set of DE's while the Bills will need a big run stuffing one tech DT. If the Bills can take their defensive line talent up a notch it will make a big difference. And I will say with the Bills cap being much cleaner and the extra 2nd round pick plus a nice complement of later and mid-round picks the regime has the tools to make these acquisitions.

Bills offensive line would have handled the Eagles pass rush a lot better. Bills may or may not have won but I think it would have been a better game.