billsfan89

Blount was electric his rookie year but after that he was always more of a plodding power back. Good at that role. The Pats utilized him well in that role for several years including an 18 TD season and the Eagles got him on a one year rental in 2017 where he was productive in their Super Bowl run. But in his later years with NE and Philly he was always just a grinder at RB. I don't know what caused Blount to be such a low ypc (relatively speaking back) most of his career. All but 2 seasons his ypc never got above 4.4 ypc. The first season he was in New England and his rookie year he averaged 5 ypc his only years above 4.4 ypc. He seemed so electric coming out of the draft but after his rookie year never looked like that player again.

The Bills have 4 significant draft picks from 2022 entering into the final years of their deals and Groot on his 5th year option. I suspected the Bills would have wanted to take at least 2 of those players off the board at a minimum and they can't do it all later in the off-season. I like the idea of keeping at least 2 out of the 3 of Groot, Benford and Bernard. Longer term on defense Milano and Von will be off the books in the coming years along with mid-level contracts like D.Jones and AJE so cap dollars on defense will be coming off down the line. Ideally I would keep all 3 but there's only so many cap dollars you can extend out even if some cap dollars fall off but keeping 2 out of the 3 is needed in my opinion. Cook he's a critical player but you also have to draw a line 9-10 million maybe 11 if you really feel he's that important but he's not worth anywhere near 15 million a season.

The Bills prior to Keon have not had a WR drafted in round 3 or higher in their entire time Beane has been the GM (2017 Zay Jones was not a Beane draft). So while if you put a pin in Keon as its too soon to tell on him (although his rookie year was promising but uneven) the Bills have managed to spend the following amount of draft picks at WR per round. Round 4- Gabe Davis Round 5- Shakir and Shorter Round 6- M. Stevenson, Hodgens, and McCloud, Round 7- Prohel The Bills hit on Davis and Shakir (esp Shakir but Davis was productive) thus hitting on 2 out of 3 picks in rounds 4-5 which is a pretty good track record. The Bills missing on 4 picks in the last two rounds at WR is not really as damming evidence they don't know how to draft the position.

Yeah I didn't mind the new rule but I prefer the older one.

Isn't this deal an extension? Shakir is still going to be on his rookie deal in 2025?

The Bills offense the last few games before Cooper was added did show signs of struggling as teams were basically forcing the Bills to beat their corners on the boundary one on one and the Bills couldn't do so because there wasn't a WR on the boundary that teams respected. Cooper even if his stats weren't huge at least commanded the respect of the defense. The Bills don't need a complete top 10 WR but they need a good boundary WR.

Production wise I think it's a fair contract. A slot WR catching 75ish catches 800-900 yards on modest volume with great efficiency is worth 15 million a season in their prime. It is not an overpay but not great value either. But I think much like Brown there is also positive projection which is a smart gamble to make. Brown had he just continued to play like he did in 2023 would have been worth the value of his contract but it wouldn't have been the amazing value it turned out to be after he got better in 2024. I think there is the smart idea that if he maintains his level of production the contract is a fair deal, whereas if he continues to develop the contract is a steal. It's a smart piece of business for McBeane. Hoping they can take care of Benford and Bernard too on fair deals. Cook is tricky however not sure where they are going with him long term.

A very very good resigning. 15 million a year for a high end slot WR (if not one of the best slot WR's in the league) is a more than fair price esp since he's going to still be on his rookie deal this season and that is going to make the contract a much smaller percentage of the cap in 2026 as the cap continues to climb. I also like the idea of rewarding a play whose worked hard and developed. Reminds me of the Brown resigning early last season. I think by the end of 2025 we are going to be looking at this contract as a tremendous value.

I get that the Bills last off-season with the Diggs trade were much more cap strapped and couldn't replace both Diggs and Davis via free agency. This time it would make more sense to at least attempt to get a capable veteran boundary WR in the off-season. And while that's not easy to do the Bills have more resources to do so than they had last off-season.

The Bills aren't going to overpay which may make them out of the market for these dynamic pass rushers. I don't think any of these teams are going to make a trade for anything less than 2 first round picks for these pass rushers. I also don't think the Bills are offering two firsts. I think the Bills will be offering pick 30 plus other stuff but I don't think that other "stuff" is going to be a second first round pick. Now it is possible the Bills package will be the most enticing as the market for older and super expensive pass rushers (as good as they are) might not be as high as they hoped and pick 30 plus 208 and a future 2nd and 5th could get it done. That's right now what the Bills have to hope. Name a good fair price and see if the market comes to you. Am I expecting a massive trade? It really depends on how many teams are lining up to trade for these pass rushers? IF the cost for that is not crazy then the Bills can come in and get one for a not insanely prohibitive cost.

The 4 games before Cooper was acquired the Bills scored 24 (the Bills defense scored 7 of the Bills 31 points against Miami). 10, 20, and 23 points. After the Bills traded for Cooper the lowest point total they had minus the week 18 irrelevant game was 23 against the Colts (the defense scored 7 points) and that was a game that Cooper did not play in due to injury. If you watched the Bills last 3 games before Cooper got there you could see teams were just not fearing the Bills WR core at all. It led to the slot and middle of the field being heavily defended and the boundaries lightly defended. After the arrival of Cooper the offense was opened up a lot more consistently.

The Bills also massively benefitted from Cooper's presence. There's a reason why the offense got a lot better after the trade. A coach saying a rookie needs to improve in his second year? Seems like a pretty common thing.

I don’t hate it, make teams return the ball. But I think the simpler solution is to just push the kickoff spot back

I like Stafford he's a very good QB, top 10 in the league in my opinion. He will be 37 coming into this season so he's on the older side but not at an age where QB's don't produce at a very high level either. I do not understand why the Rams are very eager to move on from him. The Rams have a good opportunity to give him a 2-3 year extension on his contract and then draft a QB in round 2-3 and have an heir apparent who can sit for 2-3 years while Stafford keeps them very competitive. Just doesn't make much sense for the Rams to move on. But any team trading for him will be getting a very good QB.

In the NFL you are playing a college "All Star" team who have been training and playing professionally against the highest level of competition for years. Whereas in College you are playing 19-23 year old players most of whom as good as they are will not sniff an NFL roster. So even if you are an elite All American high end college player you just might not be able to have success at a pro level for various reasons.

Whaley was pretty bad at drafting which has nothing to do with money. Also when Pegula took over in 2015/16 the money was not an issue so Whaley wasn't hampered by that his whole time. Whaley took over as GM after the 2013 draft. His drafts from 2014-2017 were pretty bad outside of 2017 which had input in from McD. His drafts from 2014-2016 were bad. Sammy Watkins at a massive trade up cost was not really a good pick only other player that turned up as a starter form that draft was Preston Brown who was a marginal starter in that time period. 2015 Ronald Darby was a solid pick but the rest of the draft amounted to nothing. 2016 produced very little Shaq Lawson was the only player who ended up sticking around. Whaley was OK on free agency and trades and maybe in 2014 and he was hampered by Ralph/Brandon but if you really think Whaley would have produced a better roster than Beane I think you are basing that on some bias you have against Beane as opposed to observing reality.

I wouldn't hate brining him back. I am going to assume Elam is gone either cut or traded. If you look at the depth at corner it is pretty thin. Assuming the Bills resign Douglas or get a proven option to replace him the corner back room sans Elam is like this. Benford Johnson Douglas (or his replacement) Cam Lewis Ingram Codrington Daequon Hardy Codrington is more of a return specialist so really your options assuming the Bills are going to carry 6 corners your depth corners are Cam Lewis whose decent depth and Ingram whose a marginal player. Brining in Dane a proven guy in the system whose 29 years old next season isn't a bad option to push Ingram for a spot.

I hope so too, but if you listen to fans about how bad Beane is at drafting in rounds 1-2 you would think the Bills picks are all like Elam and Boogie. Which is just not the case.

I would offer Cook a 2 year extension at 20 million (10 million a year from 2026-27) that also adds 3.5 million to this years salary. Tell Cook he's got two options play out your deal and hit the market or tell him he can take an extension that's gonna give him a raise this season and 15 million in guaranteed money the next two seasons. Then he can still hit the free agency market again at age 29 for one last bite at the apple. 23.5 million in new money with 18.5 guaranteed (3.5 in new money for 2025 and 15 million guaranteed for the next two). Bills get Cook for the short term locked up and happy Cook gets his money. If Cook doesn't like it tell him then he can take a small raise to play this season (like 1.5 million) and then hit the market as a free agent and take his chances. If he balks at that then he can hold out and lose money.

I think it is a bit over blown how bad Beane is at drafting in rounds 1-2. Since 2021 he's had some good picks there. Groot, Cook, Torrence, and Kincaid have all been starters. Keon had a nice rookie season and Bishop also flashed in his limited time. Have there been some busts? Yeah of course Elam and Boogie were not good picks but seems like the other picks are solid to good players at least.

Kickers are weird their confidence comes and goes. After that 60+ yard field goal in Miami Bass went from shaky to mostly reliable outside of missing a couple of PAT's. So Bass lost his confidence in 2023 but he regained it in 2024. Just hoping his confidence lasts for a few seasons. It's not worth it to have a kicker just go through consistent ups and downs.

I'm a very big McD fan but if the question is Josh or McD I would pick Josh 5 times out of 4. And I'm fairly certain 99% of Bills fans would agree with that.

Bills were 3-13 in 2001 as you mentioned. They then only won less than 6 games in 2005 (a 5-11 season) and in 2010 (a 4-12 season). In an entire 17 year playoff drought they were only 5 or less wins 3 times. Granted 6-10 is not a very good record but it's as you said far from the bottom of the league. Edit: Looking at the Bills all time records and from 1967 to 1986 you see some really rough stretches. From 67 to 72 they had 4 or less wins (in 14 game seasons) every year including two 1 win seasons. Then from 76-78 the Bills had another rough stretch where they 2/3/5 win seasons. And then again in the 84-86 stretch they had 2/2/4 win seasons. Since 1987 the Bills have only had 3 seasons where they managed to not win 6 games a pretty decent result given that is a 38 year stretch. But before 1987 they were looking at 12 seasons of having 5 or fewer wins (minus strike shortened season).

Seems like Josh made a solid choice. We all wish Keon contributed a bit more but he didn't have a bad rookie year at all, in fact he had a pretty good rookie year. His numbers would have been a lot better (and they are already pretty good for a rookie) had he not missed 4 games. As a rookie he had 550+ yards and 4 TD's on a modest 57 targets (while missing 4 games due to that Poyer hit) and he's only going to be 22 years old next season. Seems like Josh might know what he's doing?