billsfan89

35 million a year is a huge number so to speak but it is only about 14% of the current cap which while steep now is likely only to be about 11.25% of the cap in 2026. And the Vikings are a team that just drafted a rookie QB so they no longer are paying Kirk Cousins 45-50 million a season so they turn the savings in on Cousins into keeping Jefferson while having space to address the roster elsewhere. Looking at what less productive players like St.Brown and Nico Collins got Jefferson's 35 million seems like a natural above those guys kind of pegged rate. It will be interesting to see how this deal is structured. Are there some void years added in to spread out the hit? Do they just eat the bullet early and have the cap number descend? There is 30 million not guaranteed does that give the Vikings an out in 2027 with a moderate dead cap hit? Very interesting to see how these numbers go.

From 2017-2018 the Bills had a lot of home run picks. Tre, Milano, Taron, and Josh were all great picks Pro-Bowl/All-Pro caliber players. From 2019-2023 The Bills have thus far hit a lot of "singles" and "doubles" getting good role players and starters. Their biggest success since 2019 thus far has been Ed Oliver who was a solid starter his first 4 years but broke out with a Pro-Bowl season establishing himself as a top 10 DT in the league. I think 2022-2023 have a lot of potential to produce more "home run" style picks. Cook, Shakir, Bernard, Benford, Torrence and Kincaid have all slotted into starting roles at a very good level. I think they all have the chance to improve to a "Pro-Bowl" level. I think as far as 2020-2021 Groot and Spencer Brown are picks that could reach that next level of draft "hit" but they have to progress more in year 4 which is certainly possible. It is hard to say as you mentioned to judge the 2024 class they haven't played a snap. But what I like about that class is the volume of it. 10 picks 8-9 of which are likely to make the roster mostly as role/rotational player which given how well the organization has drafted in recent years esp in the mid-rounds is nice to see.

Get me a list of clients then. SPDR Index Fund was selling for 110 in May 2004 it is selling currently for 527. That's a 470% return over that time period roughly 20 years no dividends reinvested. That's a 23.5% yearly rate of return. That's not some obscure outlier here either, most index funds like VOO that all track the S&P 500 have similar returns within 1%. Compare that to Real Estate which comes with a ton of headaches in terms of renters, yearly property taxes, maintaining properties, closing costs, lack of liquidity insurance costs, and a ton of other factors the index fund is a better investment by far. You should own your own home, that's very clear, because you need a place to live and renting costs go up and you get no equity from that. But investment properties aren't worth it.

The S and P 500 (the most common index fund type) has appreciated 400% since 2004 and that's without dividends reinvested which would probably compound you into a 475% return. But even just going on a 400% return that's a much better rate of return than Real Estate in that time frame which is 275%. That's without having to pay for upkeep, property tax, insurance and other costs associated with home ownership. Now you can rent in that 20 year period but that's also going to come with a lot of pain in the ass things like you have to hope you get a good tenant because one bad tenant can set you back a lot. At best real estate maybe if you get a great tenant is yielding you equal to an index fund with dividends reinvested plus or minus 10-15%. Now since you actually do need a place to live it is still a good idea to own a home if you know (with about as much degree of certainty as you can have) where you want to live long term. Locking in a mortgage for equity and a fixed cost (outside of property tax and insurance which will go up more slowly than rent) is a great idea for your common person to at least own the home they live in. Worthy and these athletes probably short term are better off renting and parking their money in an index fund which yields better annual returns and less stress than maintaining rental properties and less stress in having to buy and sell a home or condo twice in a few years. It's a lot easier to rent a nice 2-3 bedroom and break a lease than it is to close on a home, furnish it, and move out and sell it again. I used to work for a Real Estate Franchise headquarters doing training videos and the CEO and other head honchos there told me that outside of owning your own home an Index Fund in the S and P 500 is actually a better less stressful way to invest your money, pretty much better or the same returns but you don't have to worry about renting or managing properties and it is a lot easier to sell your stock or a portion of your stock if you need the liquidity. For example if you had 330,000 invested into an S&P 500 Index Fund in 2004 it would be worth 1.32 million. That's without dividends reinvested. That's a lot bigger of a return than the 800,000k a home would be worth if bought in 2004. Even if you got an average of 2k a month in rent consistently for those 20 years that would get you to 1.28 million which would be a very generous amount of consistent rent to get you are still falling short about 40k and you have to deal with a lot more maintaince and stress with renters and you have to pay property taxes and capital gains on sales. Whereas once you cash out on an index fund you pretty much just pay the cap gains tax.

Not really sure what pick the Bills have made that was “embarrassing”. When I think of an embarrassing pick I think of a pick that many thought was bad at the time and turned out to be bad. I can’t think of a high pick that fits that description. Even some of their more notable busts like Cody Ford, Zay Jones and Boogie Basham all were players projected to go around those selections and in the case of Zay he turned in a good NFL career just not with the Bills. I can’t think of any other big busts, Elam’s early returns are not great but he’s shown he can play here and there. The Bills are mostly a team in the draft that hit a lot singles and doubles. They don’t hit a ton of home runs but they also don’t “strike out” too often either. Each draft they find a lot of starting caliber players which builds a strong deep roster. The Bills just need a couple more big time selections here or there.

Fair enough but I think there is value in the flexibility that renting provides and you can just invest the rest in an Index Fund that will provide you similar returns with a lot less stress. If you are Worthy in KC you can rent a place super nice for like 3k a month (I can't imagine you couldn't get a nice 2-3 bedroom in that range) and then invest the rest into an Index fund and you probably get a similar return with dividends reinvested. We are splitting hairs here but I think there's a case for renting in some circumstances and I think you can make a valid case especially during his rookie year where he may not want the hassles that come with owning a home one less distraction.

Not always the case given that he's gonna have to pay the property tax, home owners insurance, commission, and two sets of closing costs in just 2 or 3 years. Also there's no guarantee a house will appreciate in value although that's a strong possibility dips in the market happen.

Floyd declining as the season wore on and Von never kicking into gear hurt the pass rush. I am glad this team is a bit younger along the defensive line with keeping AJE in the fold and drafting Carter and Solomon. Hopefully they can just get and stay relatively healthy for a playoff run

According to some sources Brock Lesnar almost made the 53 man roster with the Vikings, the Vikings considered having him as a reserve defensive linemen. Lesnar was cut as he was beaten out by Spencer Johnson who ended up having a 9 year NFL career. I think the Vikings felt Lesnar wasn't going to take a Practice Squad spot so after Lesnar was cut Lesnar went back to pro-wrestling for a stint in Japan before doing MMA both more lucrative than being a PS player.

I think they filled that 4th pass rusher rotation role with Smoot while adding Solomon as depth/development. Smoot had 4 really solid years in Jacksonville from 2019-2022. He had an off year in 2023 because he had a late season Achilles injury that placed him on the PUP in 2023. So that kind of explains why he came on a fairly cheap deal. But another year removed from his Achilles injury and I think he is due for a nice bounce back in 2024. Yannick as a 4-6 DE is a nice addition but I think the Bills are pretty good on Smoot in that Shaq Lawson back end of the rotation role. They probably also like having the back 2 spots be younger players developing like Solomon and another developmental player like Kingsley Jonathan.

If I were a rookie NFL player I would rent at least for a few years. These guys are traded and relocated so many times during their careers that tying yourself down to a home is not a great idea. You may also not enjoy living where you play so why buy a home there that's gonna sit empty in the off-season and then buy a second home in the place where you live in the off-season? Why buy a home pay all those closing costs only to sell it a few years later and pay the closing costs again if you get traded in 2-3 years? Most circumstances you should want to own but I think being in a volatile industry like pro-football is one where the flexibility and low commitment of renting is actually viable. No idea why I broke down this so much but the comment got me thinking about what I would do for a living situation as an NFL rookie.

Sports Gambling should be legal but much like cigarettes the advertising of it should be heavily restricted

I thought the same thing about Sherfield last year so we will see. But I think all Hollins has to do is just be a ST ace and the rest should be a bonus.

Hollins is a solid glue guy role player. He is able to contribute enough on the field in his special teams role while also being a decent backup WR. But he's a well respected leader off the field and an experienced vet in his own right. Given the Bills special teams struggles last year having a ST ace on the roster is a solid addition.

Elam had a decent rookie year, he struggled but he had flashes of solid play. Certainly a “typical” rookie year. Year two he started off terribly but once it was revealed he was dealing with an injury it made sense and then when he came back from injury he looked better. Hopefully he can stay healthy and improve it would be nice to see a player with his potential put it together

I do think that writing off deep INT's as "arm punts" is a bit of a flawed thing. For one the chance of returning an INT for a TD is significantly higher than a punt which is a play where the punting team is expecting a return and thus is designed in a way to minimize a return. Where as a defensive team getting a pick is catching the offense somewhat off guard and thus the offense (which are usually not players adept at tackling) is not set up to make a tackle on a return. Now I do think there is a narrow set of circumstances where a deep pick is somewhat equal to an "arm punt" a 3rd and long or 4th down situation where a QB chucks it deep into a contested catch situation that both pushes the ball downfield 40+ yards and is a situation where a return is highly unlikely by the defense then I think it is relatively equal (or close enough) to a punt. I think the perfect example of an actual "arm punt" is week 3 against the Commanders this past season. It was 3rd and 20 and Josh ripped the ball down the sidelines deep to Gabe Davis and the ball was turned over on the 19 yardline for a "net" of 41 yards pinned from the Bills own 40 to the Commanders 19. It was a 3rd and very long situation and the ball was placed in a way where there was only going to be 3 outcomes, 1 Gabe catches it for a 41 yard gain, 2 it is incomplete and the Bills punt normally, or 3 it is picked in a way where a return is 99% likely to not happen and the ball is still placed in a spot deep down the field for the defense to be a decent position field position wise. TLDR: Deep picks aren't "arm punts" in most situations and deep picks are more dangerous than punts as far as returns go. So unless a deep pass is positioned in a contested catch situation or in a way that highly limits the chance of a return it isn't really an "arm punt".

I just don't see the Bills who while they will "borrow from Peter to pay Paul" once in awhile (Von Miller and Floyd come to mind) tend to not want to jam themselves up long term. They dumped Diggs in large part to not have that big contract on the roster. I think that dumping significant draft capital while also adding in a heavily backloaded contract is not the best idea for the flexibility of the roster long term. The Bills may also not "need" a top flight WR and maybe will need an edge rusher or another defensive need. Maybe Claypool and Coleman are a good outside combo? If you wait to see how the first 4-6 weeks play out you have more of an assessment as to what the roster actually needs? If you go "all in" at WR but then it turns out to be less of a need then you have less flexibility to address a defensive need that you may actually need more? The Bills front office under McBeane tends to do more "prudent" things more often than not. Waiting until the trade deadline seems like it could be more advantageous.

The Bills have a nice "quantity" of weapons. They just need Kincaid to emerge as a consistent high end target and Shakir to be a nice "WR2" style threat. Then I think the Bills can get good "complementary" production out of Samuel, Knox, Cook/Ty Johnson, Coleman and MVS (and possibly Claypool). It's a strong core of receivers at the "second and third tier" they just need 1-2 players to emerge as "go to" players. Going to be interesting to see Josh operate in an offense with more quantity and less quality so to speak.

The Bills can convert Josh's contract and save 6 million but the "Big moves" are not going to be easy to make. The Bills likely are going to make any significant trades or additions at the trade deadline. They can see what they have over the first 7ish games of the season and even if they just have about 3 million in space that is a lot more effective at the deadline than it is before the season starts.

The NFL being the only thing Americans tune into on live television at a rate that they used to in the 90's/00's is allowing them to print money on massive TV deals. The NFL just in "Media Rights" deals will be raking in 15 billion a year by 2027. 10 billion in domestic US TV deals, spread out over five deals between Amazon, Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC. 2 billion in for NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. 1 billion in International TV rights 2 billion in other streaming rights (I couldn't find a specific breakout but I think this includes things like the Netflix deal and other smaller deals for things like NFL Highlights) Then of course there is 10 billion spread out from things like ticket sales (3 billion), sponsorships (2 billion), merchandising (2 billion), and other revenue sources (3 billion). The NFL has an insane license to print money and the fact that streamers like Netflix are interested in the property will only allow them to increase their media rights revenue once the current deals which are locked in until 2033 as having another bidder is only good for them.

Crazy as in 2022 he had 9 sacks at age 34. I do wonder how many snaps he played last year and if that impacted his sack total? I wouldn't mind bringing in Hughes as a camp body to take a vet PS spot but I have to think Hughes is going to wait until in season to sign with a team if he is interested in playing. Less wear and tear on his body to come in and skip camp and the first 6ish weeks of the regular season.

I stopped believing in reports from OTA's and practices or at least taking them with a grain of salt when people were talking about how awful this Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was looking in practices in his rookie and sophomore off-season.

The Bills will on June 1st have 12.7 million in cap space. But functionally they won't actually have 12.7 million to go out and spend. You have to factor in the following for the Bills cap. Rookie pool - Rookies haven't been officially inked that's going to cost the Bills about 2 million. Practice Squad- Yes the PS counts against the Cap you gotta reserve about 4 million for that. In season emergencies - Most teams reserve about 3 million for in season emergencies Bills usually go in at that range. So the Bills actual functional salary cap space after adding in those 3 costs is going to be at about 3.7 million. The Bills will have about 3.7 million in space to actually play with after setting aside rookie/PS/Emergency money. Which is a solid amount of space to work with. Now if the Bills really want more cap space for some big trade they can open up a bit more space than the 3.7ish million they are likely to have. The following restructures are on the table. Josh Allen - Convert the remaining amount of his current year and the Bills can open up 6 million in additional space. Ed Oliver - The Bills can convert the remainder of his base to a bonus and open up 1.3 million in space. Von Miller - He has a very small base salary that can be converted over and saves 1.2 million in space. Matt Milano - Converting his base salary to a bonus can open up about 2.1 million in space. That's about 10.6 million in space that is available to the Bills. However, I think the Bills will for sure not want to convert Von or Milano both are older and coming off injuries. I do think they would if the right trade is there they will consider doing Josh and Ed's deals to open up about 7.3 million in additional space if something "too good to be true" is out there or the team is just desperate. I think the Bills aren't likely to go out there on the vet free agent market. They signed a lot of vets like Smoot and MVS already later in free agency and if the Bills need a big time DL or WR addition their current workable space of 3.7 million will go farther at the trade deadline. So I think their best "bang for their buck" is going to be at the trade deadline where they can take on bigger contracts for less money. TLDR: Bills after Tre's money hits will have about 3.7 million to actually work with once you take into account signing rookies, practice squad and a 3 million dollar reserve for emergencies. They can convert some other contracts to open up more space but that's unlikely but an option they can do. Most likely the Bills will just hold onto the money and see what is there at the trade deadline.

Davis is in a rotation with Ty and Cook is the confirmed lead back. To me that's more of a role player than a starter. Carter is in a 4 man rotation at DT, I don't think that to me qualifies him as a starter. The Bills are going to be relying on a lot of rookies to play roles but the roles are more so limited roles that I think they can handle.

The only three players that are possible to start are Coleman, Bishop and SVPG. The rest of the rookies are either slotted to be depth role players (Hardy, Davis, Solomon, Carter, Grabel, and Edefu) or a project like Clayton. The Bills are not going to have to heavily depend on this draft class to step into many starting roles unless there are injuries. I think expecting 2 and maybe 3 players to start or have bigger roles out of your rookie class is pretty "standard" for most draft classes.