billsfan89

The NFL might be 20 times more popular than the NHL (In the USA).

Bring Clapp into camp, the Bills as far as I am aware do not have a center outside of Clapp with any significant NFL experience. SVPG is a pure center but just a rookie and while McGovern is the plan at center he doesn't have significant NFL experience there. So as much as I don't think Clapp will make the final roster I think they need him in camp as an experienced NFL center and he may be better than advertised.

Ingram is actually entering his 3rd year of being coached by one of if not the best secondary coach in the league in McD so him getting the better of a 21 year old rookie is not surprising. I think Keon is going to come along slowly but the rookies being behind the vets will not surprise me

Elam is the teams most athletic corner and he is entering his third year so him getting the best of a rookie is not surprising.

Claypool is the ultimate low risk high reward type player. He's very clearly talented. He produced back to back 800 yard seasons to start his career. He bounced around to 3 teams in 2 years and is now on his 4th team on a minimum contract. The issue isn't injury as he hasn't had a major injury. The issue wasn't supporting cast at least in Miami as in Miami he had two very good WR's to take attention away and while we ***** on Tua a lot he's at least an above average QB. He just got a lot to work on in between his ears where he just hasn't been 100% there. Hopefully looking at his 4th team in effectively just over 2 years and on a minimum contract in as good a situation to get snaps and targets from a top NFL QB as he's ever he's going to get (the Bills don't have any reason to place vets in front of him if Claypool shows out) realizes that he has to put it together now or that is really the end of his NFL career to be anything meaningful. I have very very low expectations for Claypool but the recipe for a bounce back for him is there.

I think the Bills are banking on Von having a bounce back they also drafted Solomon but neither option is all that inspiring to replace Floyd. However, Floyd's back half of the season and playoffs was not that great. His sacks, pressures and QB hits were way down the last 8 games of the season compared to the first 9. He also didn't make too much noise in the playoffs. I think it is similar to the Bills replacing Diggs in a way. Because Diggs is a big name and had a big stat line last season. But if you breakdown the production there's a big fade down the stretch to their numbers and production. If they can get Von to be 85% of what he was in 2022 they should be fine but that's a lot to ask of a 35 year old 1 year 9 months removed from an ACL by September.

If you go line by line, there are only 2 or maybe 3 "players of consequence" the Bills lost and possibly did not adequately replace. The Bills also, in most instances, got younger or found better fits for the players they lost, which should yield good results. Starters or role players lost who were adequately replaced or didn't really need to be replaced: 1. **Tre White** - Was replaced in-season by Douglas, who proved to be a good replacement. Douglas is still here, so there is no effective loss. 2. **Jordan Poyer** - Is being replaced by a combination of Rapp and a 2nd round pick, Bishop. As good as Poyer was, he was no longer an "elite" safety at his age and had been banged up the last two seasons. I think the Bills should be able to get similar production from the Rapp/Bishop combo. 3. **Micah Hyde** - Is being replaced by a solid younger veteran, Edwards. Hyde, similar to Poyer, was no longer an elite safety but still a solid starter. I think Edwards can come in at a similar level. 4. **Jordan Phillips/Poon Ford/Tim Settle** - The back end of the DT rotation has been filled by a 3rd round pick, Carter, and comparable if not better vets like Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams. At worst, it's a lateral move but with upside in Carter. 5. **Shaq Lawson** - Replaced by Smoot. Shaq didn't have the strongest season. It's a smarter bet by the Bills to expect Smoot to have a bounce-back season, being further removed from a late-season 2022 injury. 6. **Dane Jackson** - The Bills' depth at corner was better with Dane, but they still have Elam as the first boundary corner off the bench, along with adding Hardy and continuing to develop Ingram. This is the only player on this part of the list not fully replaced, but given the Bills still go 3-deep at outside corner and have a solid developmental option in Ingram, the slight hit to depth here seems marginal. 7. **Gabe Davis** - Bills signed Curtis Samuel, who should be able to produce at or better than Davis. 8. **Trent Sherfield** - Replaced by Hollins, who fills that ST ace role as well, if not better, with more receiving upside. 9. **Deonte Harty** - Replaced as a punt/kick returner by Deaquon Hardy and at WR by MVS, who is much better as a WR. 10. **Ryan Bates** - Bills replaced some of the offensive line depth by drafting SVPG (who will either stay on the bench or move Edwards back to the bench) and signing La'El Collins. 11. **Latavius Murray** - Replaced with a 4th round pick, Davis, who should be better or at least the same but with more upside. Starters who may or may not be adequately replaced: 1. **Stefon Diggs** - The Bills used their top draft choice at WR to help replace Diggs by taking Keon Coleman 33rd overall. The Bills are likely going to have to find ways to have Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman, MVS, and possibly Claypool by committee soak up that production. Good news for the Bills is that Diggs didn't have the best back 60% of the season, so they may actually be better having more quantity than quality, so to speak. 2. **Leonard Floyd** - The Bills did sign Smoot, but he's more of a back-end rotation guy, and I think Solomon, who was a 5th round pick, is more likely to take minimal rotation snaps unless there is an injury. The Bills are likely banking on Von Miller snapping back, being further removed from that 2022 Thanksgiving ACL tear. While that's not an unreasonable bet, it's still a riskier one. However, Floyd was also not the greatest in the last 8 games of the season, so once again, the Bills are in a similar situation to replacing Diggs, as someone who was elite for only part of the previous season. 3. **Mitch Morse** - The Bills took an aging but still effective piece out of the starting 5 of the offensive line. They effectively replaced him either with Edwards moving from depth piece to starting guard or with an early 5th round pick, SVPG. I do have confidence that SVPG can take the starting spot, but it is a lot to ask of a 5th round pick to come in and take the starting center spot. Edwards was a competent starting guard on the Rams for a couple of seasons, including their Super Bowl run. So Edwards is not the worst option there. TL;DR: The Bills replaced all but maybe 2-3 lost players with just as good, if not better, players. If other pieces of the roster develop and the Bills maybe get a good mid-round find in SVPG and a bounce-back year from Von, then it's not much if anything lost other than Diggs, who didn't exactly have the greatest season last year.

Milano is 30 and coming off a serious injury zero chance they are going to do anything with him. I tend to agree that while I think if something "too good to be true" happened and they needed the space they would do Oliver's and Josh's contract for some space. But I think that they are going to be fine standing pat unless something drastic happens. But at least the options are there if they do need it.

Tre’s money basically allowed the Bills to go right up against the cap all offseason knowing that the “administrative” costs like rookie pool, practice squad and in season emergency money will be covered by Tre’s money. Functionally the Bills have a little bit of space to spare with about 1.3 million in “actual” cap space to play with after reserving the PS and emergency money after rookies are officially inked. The Bills can also free up some additional space like Converting the rest or Josh’s salary to a bonus which frees up 6 million in space.

The Bills usually like to reserve about 3 million for in season emergencies and 4 million is reserved for the PS. So that's functionally leaving the Bills with about 1.3 million in actual space. Now the Bills if some "too good to be true" trade were to come up the Bills do have some options to open up more cap space than the 1.3 million they currently will have to actually "play with". The Bills can convert the rest of Josh's salary to a bonus and open up 6 million more in space. I think they can also gain 1-2 million by doing the same with Ed Oliver. So if there's a will there's a way but I think the Bills likely will just wait until the trade deadline to make any moves where what little money they have and can open up will go farther.

JJ has some really amazing quick footwork highlights in addition to his contested catches. I don't think Keon is going to be breaking players ankles with his fluidity that often but if he can be physical at the point of attack and crisp with his route running I think he can be a very successful NFL WR.

Jefferson ran a 4.43 which while not blazing speed is still good speed especially for his size which while not a huge guy he is 6 foot 1 plus. JJ has the Antonio Brown like game where he's an above average athlete (Brown ran a 4.48) but just elite at technique and execution. I think Keon's just a different type of player. Keon is a bigger and slower guy (I think the 4.53 he ran at his pro-day which is in line with what I think his actual speed is) than Jefferson. I think Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis. A big guy who can get downfield, make contested catches, work a decent screen game, and is a very strong blocker. I think Keon's ceiling in my mind in Anquan Boldin. Boldin fell to the 54th pick round mainly due to running a 4.71 40 time which made teams think he was too slow. Prior to his combine he was pegged as a mid to late 1st round pick. Boldin played faster than his 40 time and he also brought an insane level of physicality and skill that pushed him over the top. I just don't think Jefferson is a comparable player BUT if Keon is anything close to Boldin then I think the Bills will be very very happy with the pick. Heck I think if Keon is a "supped up" Gabe Davis the Bills will be happy with the selection. Gabe was a quality WR he just never emerged as that consistent efficient threat as a WR2. If Gabe cut down on the drops and was more consistent and could impact the game in a few other ways he would have gotten to that 900-1000 yard 70 reception level. Overall my hope is that Keon can come in and give what Gabe gave his rookie year production wise. 45-55 receptions 600 yards 4-5 TD's. The Bills can make up the rest of the production from Diggs/Davis elsewhere on the roster but just having a nice complementary season similar to Gabe in Gabe's rookie year is a nice start and a solid enough impact for a player drafted 33rd.

The problem with RB's is that they get hurt frequently and you can find a lot of OK to good ones all over the draft so the idea is you can replace them quickly. There's still a premium for a few of the elite guys esp the ones that can catch at an elite level but it's never going to be a hyper premium position like it once was.

It will depend on what Cook commands. If Cook has another good season I think the front office would likely work out a 2-3 year extension but not at a huge number. I think they would be willing to keep him on a 8ish million dollar a year deal but Cook will likely want more. Either way the Bills have all the leverage after this season with one more year on his rookie deal after this season so at worst they just get one more year out of him and let him walk or trade him.

Way too young to go. He was like a forcefield pushing back and defender 3-7 yards down the line of scrimmage. He was a 2nd team All-Pro in 1995 and then proceeded to be first team All-Pro from 1996-2001 he made the Pro-Bowl in all of those season and then made the Pro-Bowl again later in his career from 2003-2006 and again as an alternate in 2007 his last year (and this was when the Pro-Bowl still meant a lot as far as a reflection of where players were at). He won a Super Bowl in 1995 and was an all decade team member in the 1990's and 2000's. Easily one of the most dominant guards ever gone too soon.

Wasn't Jefferson on the 5th year option this season? So maybe they could only add so much money to that number? Also maybe they backloaded the deal because the cap is going to go up so much these next few years once new TV money comes in.

It is, but I also don't think I am shooting for the stars either I think those are reasonable projections overall. Coleman having 600 yards is about what Gabe did his rookie year and I think Coleman as a rookie is more talented than Gabe was. Their roles could be similar as well. Shakir getting 900 yards sounds like a lot but its less than 300 more than he had last year and Shakir had 536 yards the last 10 games of last season which is almost exactly a 900 yard season pace. So all you would be asking Shakir to do is just continue the production he had the last 10 games of last year. Samuel having 700 yards is pretty reasonable given that he had 600+ back to back season with a crappy QB throwing to him in Washington. I think 700 is fair for him. Cook/Knox at 800 yards is also reasonable. They combined for 641 last year despite Knox missing a bunch of games. Knox staying healthy they should be able to do that. The only one that would be a gigantic leap Kincaid he did have 673 yards last year on just 91 targets. It stands to reason if he gets 30-40 more targets that he can push past 1k yards. I think the other 4 projections are "fair" with MVS, backup RB's, Hollins and possibly Claypool stepping up in case of injury and adding some bonus yards here or there. But I feel somewhat confident that we can get that level of production from Shakir/Samuel/Coleman/Knox/Cook/Kincaid. Historically and based off last season the projections for Shakir/Samuel/Knox/Cook are pretty in line. Coleman and Kincaid are the big IF's.

I think the Bills can further address the future of the WR position by drafting another WR in round 1 next year. Adding Franklin would have been nice long term but they also have Shakir locked in for 2025, Coleman is a nice addition and Samuel is 28 and locked in for 3 years on a good contract. That's 3 younger/prime players locked in at WR for 2025, the Bills can add a WR in round 1 or 2 to further solidify that longer term while extending Shakir hopefully coming off another quality season. Kincaid also could be an "alpha" type TE while Knox is still a reliable if overpaid vet role player. The Bills aren't bare at WR in terms of younger or prime players so a "double dip" wasn't needed. And MVS and Claypool are nice stop gap solutions to bridge the gap to next season where they can go WR up high twice possibly if really needed thanks to that extra second rounder. My hope is that the Bills can get Coleman to give them similar production to what Gabe Davis gave them in Gabe's rookie year. 60-70 targets with about 45-55 receptions and 600ish yards 4-5 TD's. I then think you are going to need Kincaid to be a 1,000 yard TE while Shakir pushes 900-1000 yards and Samuel gives you 700 yards. I think you then probably need 800 yards combined from Cook and Knox. Those totals from Coleman/Shakir/Samuel/Kincaid/Cook/Knox get you to 4k yards so then you can get the complementary pieces such as the backup RB's, MVS, Hollins, Claypool etc, to push past the 4k mark and make up for any injuries to the other targets. It's doable but it's gonna require Shakir to be a consistent target, Coleman to have a nice rookie year, Samuel to have a reasonable "good" season and Kincaid to emerge as the main guy on the offense.

Then you are talking about just being insanely over leveraged by taking out 3 million in debt counting on rentals on 11 individual homes to help pay that consistently. While pay property tax, insurance, up keep and closing costs on 11 different homes. The risk that comes with that and the money needed to cover the difference on the mortgage and rental on 11 properties is not really a viable proposition for the first 5-8 years. The odds of getting 11 good renters for 20 years is nearly 0%. Also banks are not likely to lend to you at a good rate for 11 homes as they would for one home you would be living in even in the looser credit time of 2004. You should almost always aim to own the home you live in but as far as where to invest your other money? I would say an index fund in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested is far better and less stressful way to invest money as opposed to over leveraging yourself on investment properties.

They got a pass catcher in round 1 last year in Kincaid. So back to back years their top picks have been a pass catcher. It's a good start especially when they have a nice mid-round find in Shakir and signed a solid mid-level WR free agent in Samuel. I do agree that they maybe could have done more in terms of WR in the draft. I wouldn't have minded Troy Franklin in round 3 to help add some speed to the WR core. But I also think the difference year 1 between Franklin and MVS is likely to be marginal. We aren't too far apart on opinion here but I am mostly saying that the front office appears to have shifted in philosophy with drafting 3 out of their last 4 picks in rounds 1-2 on offense. I also think resigning Dawkins was their biggest extension of the off-season and they also made two very savvy acquisitions in the mid round this year with SVPG and Davis both of whom I think will fit nicely on the offense.

They have corrected course in 2023/24 as they haven't invested much in the defense by way of the draft and free agency. Hopefully they continue that course.

I think offensive line and WR/TE should be the Bills top pick and possibly top two picks the next 5-7 years. I don't hate taking a defensive player in round 2 here or there as you need pass rushers and other players as you can't leave the cupboard completely bare on defense. I liked the Bills investing a pair of fairly high picks in Bishop and Carter to help the defense. But I think generally speaking the Bills are going to have to rely on mid-round and late round picks along with lesser free agents to keep the defense stocked up while cap dollars and higher draft picks are invested around Josh and the offense.

I think you need a team with a rookie QB if you are going to have a 30+ million dollar WR with a QB on a big 45+ million dollar number. The Vikings have a rookie QB so keeping Jefferson for the next 4 years to help their QB is a sensible solution esp as the cap goes up the back 2 years of that Jefferson deal is much more palatable. A team like Buffalo paying a QB 50-60 million and a WR 30 million occupying nearly 1 out of every 3 cap dollars is just hard to do. You would need to be an insanely good drafting team in order to pull that off and the Bills are very good at drafting but that would offer a team virtually zero margin of error as they would consistently need to draft 3-4 starters year over year which while possible is a lot of pressure. The Bills likely are going to draft a lot of WR/TE in the top two rounds in the next 5-7 years as long as Josh is a top 3-4 QB in the league.

Josh going into 2020 was an up and coming QB, he needed a true WR to come in and step in to help him take that next step. They traded for Diggs and that gave Josh that true "alpha" weapon he needed right out the box. Possibly Josh is a little less of a dynamic passer in 2020 if he's working with Jefferson who was just a rookie and not Diggs? I was very critical of the Bills in the draft particularly in 2021-22 over investing in defense. 2021 back to back picks in rounds 1-2 at DE seemed unnecessary, 2022 Elam while he filled a big need I was more comfortable with the Bills drafting elsewhere and challenging McD to find corners later in the draft (which he did ironically). But in 2023 and 2024 they spent their top picks on pass catchers (Kincaid and Coleman) they also did in 2022 draft Cook in round 2 which was a nice skill position add. I am hoping that the Bills are finally able to keep investing top picks into the offense year over year.

This also assumes Jefferson develops in the same way he did in Minnesota. I think Minnesota was a really great landing spot for Jefferson. I can't pull it up, but I remember reading that Adam Thielen was really key to Jefferson developing right out of the gate the way he did. I think one of Jefferson's biggest issues coming out of college was his route running. Jefferson, coming into the draft, was billed as a very good but not elite athlete with amazing catch ability but someone who wasn't a great route runner and not a dynamic enough athlete (he's 6 foot 1, 33 inch arms, and 4.43 40 time—very good but not elite) to get separation without improving his route running. There was a specific type of route running that teams thought he needed to really improve on (sorry for the lack of specifics) to be successful in the NFL consistently, and it just so happened those types of routes were something Adam Thielen was among the best in the NFL at. Supposedly, Jefferson worked very closely with Thielen, who was a very willing teacher, during the off-season he was drafted and throughout his rookie year. Once Jefferson vastly improved his route running, it was off to the races. If Jefferson gets drafted to Buffalo, is he maybe not as dynamic right out of the gate? Could he have learned from the coaches here and a vet like Cole Beasley? All possible, but not a certainty either. A lot goes into a player being massively successful, especially right out of the gate. I think Jefferson probably is still a great NFL player if he stays healthy, but he may not break out until year 2 or 3.