Bill Murray
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Posts posted by Bill Murray
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I think people give the pats too much credit here. The comp pick system is not just about number of players lost vs number of players gained, but also the size of their contracts.
The pats get a massive “winners” dividend in this area because other teams tend to give pats FAs huge deals to get them away from the pats. For those teams, they justify it as the player they are getting has playoff / Super Bowl experience, and has played w BB so may bring some of that gold dust with them. For the pats they are fine letting the player go because they know the only irreplaceable player on their team is Brady.
So I look at the pats perennial comp pick bounty as simply a dividend they have earned by winning (cheating) every year and having built a program from which people chase players with experience in that system. If/when McD and the Bills establish themselves as a dominant program, people will start overpaying to steal our FAs as well and the comp pick system will favor us.
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Are these guys coming out after him bc of the predraft tweets?
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The people saying they dont want to see the Bills on it are totally nuts. If the Bills were on hard knocks, you'd watch every episode and absolutely LOVE it.
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i think we were a 7 or 6 last year, but losing E Wood, Incognito, and Tyrod i think we downgrade to 5 heading into the season. D slightly above average, O slightly below. O ex-Shady is bottom quartile in the league
On the tyrod point, im not saying McCaron doesnt have more upside, and wont be better than tyrod at some point during this season, but he at this point hasnt started any games and TT has won many, so lets not hijack the threat w TT partisanship...
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I think he could be an absolute beast. The downhill steps point he makes becomes a little moot when you consider he had a large amount of tackles for a loss and was a Butkus award finalist. He did attack, and was successful. I think his ability to cover makes him a prototype for the modern NFL, and also makes him very dangerous blitzing as he will switch from cover to blitz keeping everyone guessing. i think a tremendous pick, and was happy to pay what we gave up to go get him (was not thrilled wit hthe draft capital we paid to move up for Allen)
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id put Terry P buying the team as most important night, but this is in the mix
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if im the bills, i try to trade next years 1 instead of this years #22. so move up using 12, one of the 2nd rounders, and next years 1.
i *think* the giants should go for that, because presumably, we are starting a rookie QB and so our 1st next year is a high pick. So the giants pass on a QB and stay w Eli. if they are right, then they get extra guys to put around him. if they are wrong, they have presumably 2 high 1st round picks next year to get his replacement.
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Would LOVE OG Will Hernandez at 22.
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i think if the Pats* took one of the top RBs that wouldnt be good for us as it balances their attack. I think if the Jets took Chubb or one of the LBs, that would make them a tough out despite their horrible offense bc their D would keep them in games. The dolphins are such a wildcard, is tennehill definitely done there or is that just what the mock drafters think??
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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:
There are 9 pass rushers/defensive linemen that make more than the highest paid corner (and that is before Mack’s extension). There is 1 WR (Evans at 15), 9 DL/edge rushers and the rest QBs in the 21 highest paid contracts (in terms of guarantees).
Cool. I was looking at last years numbers that had Norman at 20mm more than wilkerson at 18mm. (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2724959-the-highest-paid-nfl-players-heading-into-the-2017-18-season)
I guess there is this too (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22836003/nfl-highest-paid-players-every-position-next) which has Normans 3 yr number at 51mm and Von Millers 3yr number at $61mm, which is somewhat in the same ballpark.
EItherway the point of my last post was to say you make fair points and concede the conversation, but if you want to beat the dead horse, by all means go for it. i need to turn my attention to which player we might draft...have you seen any threads on that topic yet??
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im a huge fan of taking W Hernandez at 22 if we stay put, but i suppose rashaan evans is worthy of going away from OL.
Also, ill get lit up for this, but id much rather take one off the top 5 RBs over TE in 2nd round.
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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Except because he pass rusher took the double team they have Moss doubled. The pass rusher did that (and forced the QB to deliver the ball early). That’s why they are paid like they are.
fair enough, although i think the highest paid at each position are pretty close to each other, but fair enough
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11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Don’t you think when that pass rusher is “double or triple teamed” they’ve had a massive impact on everything else? There are guys running free and/or extra guys in coverage.
not if the QB can bail and huck up a jump ball to randy moss or megatron...the CB takes that 'bail out' option away.
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good topic. I would go CB over DE, LB, or WR because the CB can nutralize the other teams best player in a way that no other position can. Revis island at its peak freed up the rest of the team to play the run and double cover the 2nd WR option...it totally changed the entire game. a DE or LB could be double or triple teamed, and the play call can go away from them to the teams top WR so i think both DE and LB can be nutralized more than a CB can.
Some consideration should be given to K, which no one has said. While they wouldnt seem the obvious choice, the ability to win any close game bc your kicker is automatic from anywhere is the difference betwen good teams and great teams. Take vinitari off the Pats** and they lose an addiitonal multiple superbowls. put the Goat K on the bills and we win one superbowl.... almost a quarter of all NFL games are settled by 3pts or less. the GOAT K might actually be the correct answer as crazy as that sounds....
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21 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:
Yeah.
Then you have to add up everything you gave up to get each pick, for example.
-#21 + cordy +5th (#158) was that #12 cost (we also got a 6th #187. Should keep that number it's MURDER ?)
So if we trade to #7 by giving (just saying):
#12 and #22 , at minimum that means we actually gave up #21, #22, #158 and cordy Glenn for the #7 pick.
Again I'm not saying that is what it would cost to go to #7 I'm just saying that's how you have to look at it
Just because one team overpaid doesn't mean we have to
Yeah I don't think it would cost a ton, but see my response above at the total cost.
Right I agree.
But Cleveland could go Barkley #1 leaving Darnold #2 to NYG, then Jets have Mayfield/Allen/Rosen choice at #3, leaving browns with the remaining 2 to choose from
VERY interesting game theory if you are the Browns. If you are OK with any of the top 3 QBs on your board (presumably Darnold, Rosen, and Allen), then you are supposed to take Saquan Barkley #1.
If Barkley went #1 overall i think everyone would be shocked and phone lines across war rooms would be going nuts...
Any possible chance Barkley geos #1 and then Chubb goes #2 to the Giants? that would be insanity...
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this thread is comical. Lamar Jackson will make a ton of big plays in the NFL and offenses run by Jackson will score points.
Will he be an elite NFL QB? Prob not. How many 1st round QBs turn into elite QBs vs how many are drafted?
This draft reminds me of 1999. 5 QBs taken in top 12, different skill sets, most were total busts.
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trade #22, #53, and #56 to get #2 overall w the Giants works under both the Harvard and FP models... having #2 and #12 would be pretty cool.
Too bad these models are useless . . . . . . .
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Denver will move up to 2
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My take is people on this board are not giving enough credit to the possibility of the broncos or Jets moving up and taking the QBs. We all assume that one of the Giants, Colts, and/or Browns will be willing to trade out with us. I think its reasonable, if not likely, that any of those teams trade out with the Jets and Broncos (wil get probably another pick this year and a high pick next year to just move down a couple spots rather than all the way back to #12). In that scenario, Darnold, Rosen, Allen will all be gone. Then we are trying to get up the board with limited trade down partners and potentially the Cards or a dark horse moving up to contend with.
So all in all, i could easily see our top QB choice being taken, and McBeane deciding to go to plan B, which is draft BPA at #12 and try for Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson at #22.
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if im the giants i draft Barkley and then best G with their 2nd. now have protection, upgraded line, and a legit running threat to keep the secondary honest.
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win in the present and win in the future. they are not mutually exclusive.
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If they go rookie, Kyle retires, right?
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id throw a 5th. we would get it back if he leaves in FA next year via comp pick...
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barf
Music City Travesty
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
its hard to argue Rob Johnson should not have been the starter....when he walked off the field, he had done everything he needed to for the Bills to win. Maybe Flutie would have had them up comfortably, maybe not, but RJ 100% had them in position to win.