Well, only 4 teams have been mathematically eliminated so far--so you have hit on....something.
The rest of your math....not so good. Bills last 7 games are vs teams with records of 7-7, 11-3, 6-8, 7-7, 7-7, 8-6. that's a total record of 46-38. you can't count the Jets 7-7 record twice, chief....
The Bills have played 2 teams with a winning record, lost to one (lost to the other in September).
The Jets and NE have combined to win 2 of their last 9 games. The Jets, 1-5 since the bye, get to choose between Wilson and Flacco until their #2 QB is healthy enough to start. How are they better than the Dolphins?