Magox

I’m just pointing out objective realities 😜

That’s what many don’t understand, in practical terms you are spending a very small amount of your cap on your two best skill players.

Crosby is probably somewhere around the 4th -5th best DE in football, and he gets $35.5M AAV A DE that is ranked around the 12-15 range receive probably should be in the $23M - $25M AAV

Thats the concern and a legitimate one. If he were a reliably available he would cost double probably around $15m AAV

Thats a $35.5M AAV Rousseau is objectively somewhere in the 12-15 range ranked DE in the league based on a litany of stats. About $24M AAV sounds just about right.

This is the correct way to view things!

This is the sort of moneyball approach that I'm in favor of. He probably could be signed to around $10M AAV which means he would barely eat up any cap space over the next few years. Him, Josh Palmer or Hollywood brown to me makes a lot of sense. Still draft a WR with a premium pick! Then spend a boat load on defense!

They plan on filling it up. 2027 has a $10M base salary, 2028 has an $11M and 2029 $11.25M, they can convert those salaries to a bonus and spread it out in the remaining years including the bonus.

Yeah, I'm not going to question their strategies, they are an A+ organization. Just that it does create another hole when it is clear that this was their biggest weakness.

The Khalil Shakir deal I believe is somewhat instructive in seeing how a deal with Cook could look like. This is not a post to convince anyone of whether his quality of play and value are worth what a contract could look like but how much of the cap he would tie up if he were to be signed to a similar deal as Khalil. The contract with Shakir is actually a $13.25 M AAV 4 year $53M, which makes it even better than what we were hearing due to the remaining amount not listed presumably are on performance based incentives. A deal with Cook would probably look very similar. The Sportrac link wasn't working for me, so here is another one I found https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/77025/khalil-shakir I think too many people focus on the AAV, it's truly not representative of what the actual cap hits are in practical terms. A better way of looking at it is the actual CAP HIT and CAP% of the league cap. If the Cook contract were to be lets say exactly the same as Cooks which as a $13.25M AAV and 1 voided year then this is what you'd expect: 2025 Cook would only have around a $3M cap hit which would be 1% of the cap 2026 Cook would have around a $6.8M cap hit which would be 2.21% of the cap 2027 Cook would have a $13.9M cap hit which would be 4.12% of the cap 2028 Cook would have a $15M cap hit which would be 4.04% of the cap 2029 Cook would have a $15.9M cap hit which would be 3.91% of the cap 2030 the VOIDED year would have a $1.8M cap hit which would be .4% of the cap The VOIDED year is essentially a somewhat empty container. That container could be used for 2027, 2028 and 2029 years to push out the base salaries that can be converted to bonuses to lower the cap hit and spread it out in the remaining years including the voided year. The base salary for 2027 is $9.9M The base salary for 2028 is $11M The base salary for 2029 is $11.2M For 2027 where the cap hit is at it's zenith at 4.12% of the cap, they could spread out the $10M salary, convert to bonus and spread it out between the remaining 3 years (which includes the voided year) and lower the cap hit for 2027 by around $7.5M, by spreading $2.5M to 2028, 2029 and 2030. Of course if you do this then the percentage of cap would be under 2% for 2027. The point is, even without any restructures which there very likely would be the maximum cap % hit would be 4.12% of the cap for a playmaking RB.

Wow! I did not see that coming. After watching the Superbowl game the takeaway was that the Chiefs needed to get better with their offensive line, this will create a hole that they need to fill. I'm guessing that the money that they will have to spend with Thuney and Trey Smith was something that they wouldn't be able to afford. The thing is that the Chiefs aren't nearly as aggressive with their salary cap maneuvers as some of the more aggressive teams. Very surprised.

Yeah, they are. I don’t think they will go down just that at some point the rate of increase will slow down. I think the Bengals and Ja’maar Chase and Tee Higgins are having that battle and from what I heard is that they are far apart with both the receivers.

One of the big problems with this is that the cap hit would be much larger in 2026 since you couldn’t do anything to manipulate the cap hit. And that this is very likely the last big contact he may be able to play for the rest of his life and risking that would definitely be seen as anti player from the players perspective. Kinda. A little bit of both.

Prior to this signing I believe that Cook could have been had for $12.5M AAV, I think now he will be around $14M - $15M AAV. They could do a $13M AAV guarantee with performance sweeteners that could take it to $16M. I do think that they will utilize him more than they did in the past and that Ty Johnson would most likely be a goner if they do decide to extend him. I think it will happen.

Thanks for finding this, it validates the point that RB valuations were out of whack. We can argue about subjectivity all day long and get no where which typically are for the people who argue with feelings, their thoughts etc. Or you can make objective arguments and look at the data, stats, metrics and trends and when you look at the numbers it's clear, RB utilization is increasing and the importance of balance is more important than it has been in over two decades, and that the best teams are largely running the ball more often than the rest of the league. I think another point of data is that we saw RB's such as Jacobs, Mixon, Saquon and Henry all leave teams that didn't want to pay the few extra bucks and all 4 teams that let them go were worse for it.

And they have both tackles making over $20M+ And they also have a guard they are paying $20M

Tee Higgins and Ja'marr Chase are represented by the same agency. I hear that Ja'marr and the Bengals are far off in their negotiations which tells me that Ja'marr is looking for $40M+ And I wouldn't be surprised that they are pushing for Tee Higgins for $33M+

Yeah, that's how it works, that is how the league evolves. Teams adjust, then teams begin to readjust then teams readjust to those readjustments and so on and so on.

People can either deny facts or accept them and the fact is that teams are running the ball a lot more than they have and the top teams are running more than the rest of the league. It was just a matter of time before the cycle would reverse.

You mean for 2026?

There is a caveat with this deal, Saquon was already signed for 2025 and 2026, so his two year extension in theory doesn’t begin until 2027 and will cover 2028. So it’s not as if his $20.6m AAV begins now in 2025. So it’s not quite as high as it appears when you factor in the anticipated rate of inflation in the cap.

You are stuck in the old way of thinking. Teams are running more than they have in a long time and almost all the top offenses are run heavy teams.

I’m bumping this thread in light of Saquons $20.6m AAV extension. I made points that the league which was a heavy passing league is beginning to trend hard to the running game and that with the increased load on the ground game and that the most successful offenses are mostly heavy run oriented that we would begin to see the deflationary cycle break for RB’s. The Saquon extension sets the market (I don’t believe other RB’s will hit this AAV in the next year or two) but that he will be the rising tide that will lift all playmaking boats.

Without doubt! That’s the nature of the NFL and it was overdue. People have been mentally programmed to not value RB’s because that’s what the league had done. But when you dive into the numbers and how much teams are running the ball (the most in the last 20 years) and that the best teams are almost all running the ball often and effectively it was only a matter of time before the contract valuations would catch up. I created a thread on how WR valuations were overinflated and in that post I brought in some stats on why that is and why RB’s were undervalued

I won’t try to convince you of the value he adds to the team other than he’s a playmaker and I hate to part ways with those kind of players. But even if the Bills brought him back on an extended deal of 3 year $42m AAV of $14m, his 2025 cap hit would be less than 1.5% of the cap, 2026 around 2.5% and 2027 of around 3.5% (if they use 2 voided years)