Magox

I'm going to deconstruct this piece by piece. Regarding Rousseau's pay relative to other Defensive Ends I am not sure where he got those numbers, but they are incorrect, he is the 12th highest paid DE in the league on an AAV basis Max Crosby $35.5M AAV Nick Bosa $34M AAV Josh Hines-Allen $28.25M AAV Brian Burns $28.2M AAV TJ Watt $28.02 M AAV Myles Garrett $25M AAV Montez Sweat $24.5M AAV Danielle Hunter $24.5M AAV Rashan Gary $24M AAV Bradley Chub $22M AAV Trey Hendrickson $21M AAV Then Rousseau (Maybe) For Reference https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end And I just went into Sportrac and checked into each of these players and it matches with what OvertheCap shows Secondly, We don't even know if Rousseau's extension is $20M AAV, it could be less. We saw that with Shakir's report when it first came out and it ended up coming in a lot less. Just as Logic pointed out, until the final numbers come in that' what it will be Third point, It really isn't $20M AAV (even if that is what the extension is). It's not as if he is beginning this extension part of his contract now, it wouldn't be until 2026. When you consider his $13M option he had for 2025, it actually is $18.6M AAV Fourth point, as it stands Rousseau is the 12th highest paid DE, but many of these contracts were signed years ago. Meaning that if all Defensive ends were up for a contract negotiations, Rousseau based off his current contract which is without doubt a team friendly deal would end up probably somewhere between the 15th - 20th highest paid DE Regarding Rousseau and where he ranks vs other DE's I can't argue back and forth against subjective opinions. You can't argue against people's feelings, feelings are largely irrational. Subjective opinions which is what you and the detractors are able to bring up aside from a singular focus on just sack totals. But what we can argue and debate is from an objective standpoint. Where objectivity is not based on feelings but rather facts, metrics etc. Rousseau is 15th in the league in solo tackles Rousseau is 10th in the league in Tackles for loss (That's a very important metric) Rousseau is 3rd in the league at the DE spot in Forced Fumbles (Another very important metric) Rousseau is 10th in the league in Stops (Another important metric because this means he makes tackles that are usually for a yard or less) (It is used in a similar sense as EPA sort of metric, relativity) Rousseau is 19th in Sacks Rousseau is 18th in Hurries Rousseau is 2nd in QB hits (This is better than a regular Hurry because it means he got to the QB right after the ball was released) Rousseau is 10th in the league in Total QB pressures Rousseau is 11th in the league in batted passes Rousseau is 12th in the league in PFF ratings And he did all this by being 25th in the league in snaps, 32nd in the league in run defense snaps and 17th in the league against rush snaps For those that say he doesn't produce when it counts, ok, well he did have a sack in the playoffs against Denver and a sack in the playoffs against the Ravens. That's 2 sacks in 3 games. So it's not as if he completely disappears in the playoffs. Again , facts You can't objectively make an argument and say he is not a top 12 DE in the league, not based off facts or metrics. But only with your feelings. For those that say this doesn't allow an opportunity to go after other quality FA's or trades I don't even know where to begin. It most certainly isn't rooted in reality. Rousseau's contract extension will most likely free up $10M in cap space in 2025. Will need to see final contract deals but highly likely it will be in this ball park People say, beyond 2025 it will make it more difficult. Simply not true. Look at the Nick Bosa contract, which is a good example to compare against. They are applying one voided year that is in use right now which is what the Bills have typically been offering. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29037/nick-bosa#:~:text=2023-2028 Rookie Extension,average annual salary of %2434%2C000%2C000. You can also look at the Shakir contract https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/77025/khalil-shakir If you look at Bosa's and Shakir's contract which have similar contract constructions, both were extensions which means that they had a previous contract in place. If you look at Bosa's contract they converted all the salary to bonus, same with Shakir. Shakir this year will count about .9% towards cap and Bosa's first year counted 4.9% of the cap. The difference is Nick Bosa had a $50M signing bonus that could only be spread through his 5 years at $10M a pop for each of the 5 seasons. Rousseau very likely will be somewhere around 2% of the cap in 2025 For 2026 and 2027, if you look at Bosa's contract he is at minimum base level. Shakir is at minimum base level for 2026. Shakir is at 2.2% of the cap, Bosa's is 5.74% of the cap. You can make a fair assumption based off what has been reported for Rousseau that he will count around 3 - 3.25% of the cap in 2026 and for 2027 around 4 - 4.25% of the cap. Even in 2028 if you look at how Bosa's contract is setup, the 49ers set it up with a heavy base salary pay, which if the Bills wanted to they could convert that base salary to a bonus and spread it out in 2029 and the 2030 voided year. lowering the cap hit. In terms of cap room and flexibility to be able to go after high end FA's/Trades, it is absolutely 100% incorrect to say that it makes it less likely. Whether there is a will from ownership to spend the money in real dollar terms, that is another matter and I cannot get into the mind of Pegula whether or not he'll want to make a big push. But based off the fact that we only have 3 DE's on the roster and one is a very unproven rookie, I do believe they will make a push for one of the top 6-7 DE's Garrett, Hendrickson, Landry, Sweat, Mack or Bosa.......I also believe that Pegula recognizes that Josh Allen is at his absolute physical peak and pretty soon from a physical not overall standpoint that he will be on the decline soon. It's sort of now or never.

I believe they will get one of those guys or if not a high level DT via FA/trade. I guess we will find out

$20M AAV is not “elite” pay for an edge rusher. $35.5M AAV which is what Crosby just recieved is elite pay. That is 77% higher pay than Rousseau You’ve completely lost the plot Yes you can lol

Right now the DE’s on the current roster are: Rousseau Epenesa Soloman There definitely will be a significant push to bring an edge rusher to the fold Garrett Hendrickson Bosa Mack Landry Sweat One of these guys I believe will be on the roster

That would free up $8.3M in cap savings. Which most likely puts us somewhere around $10-12 M under the cap.

Javan Hargrave is available as well

I’m not sure I’m following. Obviously he did. What are you saying?

Because in order to spend like the Eagles, the up front real cash expenditures are huge and I don’t believe Beane could just spend his money in such a fashion without consulting the boss

They aren’t representative of how most people feel it’s mainly from the ones who have a very simplistic view in that sacks is the only stat in determining the value of the player. GM’s and people who study film for a living almost all believe that not only was it a good value but an excellent one.

I think they will try for either Garrett, Hendrickson, Landry, Mack or Sweat. My hopes are that they go for one of the top FA DB’s such as a DJ Reed. If they get a CB that is a tier below that then I would expect them to go after a pretty good DT, there are a few good options Hargrave, Jonathan Allen or a DJ Jones

If they don’t I will be pretty damn disappointed

There is more of an urgency to win it all than ever before. Allen in the next few years will be declining from a physical standpoint, (I don’t believe overall but physically). I am convinced that after seeing how the Eagles are paying all their players and some with over $350M in their voided year contracts which is $200M more than the next highest team that Pegula will more all in than he has in the past. We will know in the not so distant future if what I believe will play out.

By signing Rousseau the Bills are more likely to field a better defense than if they hadn’t. Aside from extending Benford, I think the Bills will add two more players either via FA and/or trade that will be impact players with AAV values of $15m + AAV players on the defensive side of the ball.

Yes

The way the Bills have recently structuring their deals with 1 voided year, I think you can assume they are about $2-4 M under the cap

They can easily do it, just depends if there is the will to do it from Pegula.

Dang! Thats one of he guys I was hoping to target. Palmer is my top WR FA hopeful. Then draft a WR with on of the premium picks

Did you see his explanation of that play you had referenced? From the article; ———- On defense, Greg Rousseau knew that the Chiefs might use a diamond formation — Mahomes lined up between two tight ends with a running back behind him — but admits the Chiefs ran plays out of this funky alignment that the Bills had never seen before. Reid saved plays for this matchup. On the go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs pulled a tackle left and a ran a quarterback keeper right. Buffalo’s best defensive player, Matt Milano, was caught flat-footed. Dawuane Smoot bit inside to JV extremes. Everyone appeared fooled. Mahomes plowed into the end zone. “I didn’t see that in any of the breakdowns I watched,” said the defensive end Rousseau. “So they made some plays. They ended up coming out on top. They had a good gameplan.” Mahomes has always been a threat to run. What surprised the Bills, per Rousseau, is when he ran for his 43 yards. They weren’t expecting him to boot in certain short-yardage situations. “I know personally in my job, not just me, but the whole defense we’re thinking, ‘Alright, it was four-minute (offense), we got to get a stop on the run,’” Rousseau said. “Then he boots out. It’s like, ‘Damn.’ It happens. It’s part of the game and it's tough to stop when you have a quarterback who’s a dual threat.” ——- https://www.golongtd.com/p/missing-rings-buffalo-bills-flush Not to completely absolve him but that game was mainly a failure on the scheme and DB’s But even if you don’t want to give that any credence, it was just a debacle defensively all the way around and he did pef well in the other 2 playoff games.

This is a nice highlight film of many of the sacks, tackles for loss and QB hits he had. Also for those that are using sack totals as their only basis of his value, you are showing yourselves to not understand the true value of a Defensive end. Sorry, not sorry. He was 2nd in the league in QB hits He was 10th in the league in QB hurries He was 10th in the league in stops. A stop is a play that usually is a stop around the line of scrimmage. He is 9th in the league in tackles for losses He is 3rd in the league in causing fumbles. Even sacks he’s 19th in the league. Yeah, those stats in today’s market is over $20m AAV. The Bills got a team friendly deal. Also for those that are saying that this will limit our odds in getting more quality talent. I’m just going to assume you don’t understand how to manipulate the cap. The Bills recent M.O has been to add 1 voided year. Considering that the Bills already have Rousseau for $13m for 2025, with the extension it is a 5 year $93M deal which is at $18.6M AAV The way the deal will be structured you will see: 2025 less than 2% will be of the teams cap 2026 less than 3.5% will be of the team cap 2027 around 4% will be of the team cap. Even 2028 can be manipulated and pushed to 2029 and the 2030 voided year. The Eagles have 7 players with over $20M AAV extensions and another 2 more over $17M AAV The Bills have 3 at $20m + You can keep repeating it over and over but it won’t change the fact that you are wrong that this deal limits our ability to get more top end talent

He had a sack against Denver this year in the playoffs and he had a sack against the Ravens this year in the playoffs. 2 sacks in 3 playoff games. Sign me up

Groot had a better year than Sweat. Check the metrics, Groot outperformed him in just about every single metric.

The Josh Sweat anticipated deal will be interesting to see. Even though his advanced metrics aren’t as good as Rousseau’s, he’s the closest comp that is expected to sign this year. His deal won’t be an extension so the deal will begin immediately whereas Rousseau’s extension doesn’t begin until 2026. That dilutes the value a little bit relative to Rousseau’s. The better way to compare what Josh Sweat will end up getting vs what Rousseau receives will be including the 2025 $13m existing contract for Rousseau which makes it a 5 year $93m $18.6m AAV Im guessing Sweat will get somewhere around that amount

This is what I’ve been saying over and over.

Based off last years production this contract which in all intents and purposes is up to $18.6m AAV over the next 5 years matches up. I posted the advanced stats multiple times, you can find them in this thread. Through objective lens it’s a good deal. The beauty is that he is ascending, that’s not in dispute. I would assume he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet unless last year was the peak and I don’t see any evidence to suggest that.