Magox

I didn't notice it, but I don't doubt you. Hard to judge a persons career on one game. If we did that then lots of players wouldn't get extended or be given good contracts. I think as a whole, you definitely see a player on the rise. He did have sacks in both of the other playoff wins.

The decision to extend Rousseau has become a somewhat polarizing topic and I think it a bit warranted but I do believe there are many key points that the naysayers are overlooking. I'm going to look to make two different points, one will be revolved around his production and the other will be centered on the explosion of the salary cap and how people's perceptions of it are stuck in the previous years rates of cap inflation. Production and player capabilities Greg is 24 years old, he's still very young and he is an ascending player. Every year he's been in the NFL he has improved from the previous season. He has not hit his prime yet. His measurables are fantastic, 6'7 and 266 lbs and he's still filling out his body and he has good speed for being as large as he is. He had 8 sacks in the season which tied his highest total, he had two sacks in the playoffs which is his best Post season yet, he had his highest tackle total that this past season. He had his highest tackles for loss this year with 16 which made him 10th in the league. Rousseau is the 11th rated out of 211 DE's in PFF ratings. Rousseau had 63 pass pressures which ranked 10th out of 211 Edge rushers. Rousseau had 17 QB hits which ranked 2nd in the NFL for DE's. Rousseau had 3 batted passes which ranked 11th in the NFL for DE's. Rousseau had 3 Forced fumbles which ranked 3rd in the NFL for DE's. Rousseau had 35 Stops which ranked 10th for DE's in the NFL. And he did this with a relatively low snap count of 736 which ranked 25th in the NFL for DE's. I think too many people look at the raw sack total and then make judgements. Sacks are very important and I would say is one of the most if not the most important metric but the value of the player is so much more than just raw sack totals. It's clear that Rousseau gets a lot of pass pressures, that he hits the QB a lot, makes the QB throw the ball sooner than he'd like. He's really good against the run, bats down passes and causes fumbles which is important. From a value perspective, if you look at the statistics as a whole, objectively he is an 9-12 rated all around NFL DE in the league, which means out of 64 starters, he's in the top 15-25% Salary Cap and how many are not viewing it correctly The salary cap back in 2000 was $62M, today it stands at $275M The nominal growth of the Salary cap from 2012 - 2022 has averaged around 6% per year The growth of the salary cap over the past 3 seasons has been around 11% per year Just the past three seasons it has gone from $208M - $281.5M That is a growth of $73.5M in just 3 seasons alone which accounts for about a whopping 33% growth in the salary cap. With all the new Broadcasting streaming deals, the way the NFL is now going to begin measuring viewership and all the overseas efforts, many industry experts believe that this rate of growth will continue at least for the next 5 years. I bring the salary cap up because I believe that many people are still viewing salary cap figures with the lens of an old 6-7%outdated rate of growth that we had been used to seeing. Over the past three years the rate of growth of the cap has gone to 11%, which represents an 80% rate of growth from what we have been accustomed to have been seeing. In short, the cap has been going bananas and is projected to do so for the foreseeable near future. There are 10 players who are making $22M a year at the Edge position, that is Nick Bosa, Joshua Hines-Allen, Brian Burns, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunger, Rashan Gary, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb. Bosa tops the league at $34M AAV. Parsons when he does his deal will probably be around $37M. Many of the top 10 players signed their deals 2-3 years ago, which means if they were signing a deal today, rather than making lets say $24M that they signed then, they would be receiving $30M + today. Also, if you don't extend Rousseau, then you have to replace him and there is already a hole and a major need to get another Edge rusher. This means that you now need to get 2 Edge rushers that can play effectively. It's hard enough to find 1, finding 2 makes it that much more difficult. If you look at Rousseau's recent production, that he's 24, that he has all the physical traits that you are looking for and that he has shown a propensity to continue to ascend every year in the NFL. Then objectively speaking, signing him to a $23- $24M AAV contract makes a lot of sense and by the time 2027 comes around his contract will only most likely be around 6% of the cap. That's a deal! And I'm sticking to it!

Landry is on the block. He can get after it

Yeah, I'm not sure. They make the assumptions without seeing what the extension would look like. Will be interesting to see once the contract details are out.

You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players. The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings. In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure. When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

Not sure, that’s what Overthecap site shows. Have a look, you can see the savings or additional hits with extensions, releases, post June releases and restructures

The extension, depending on how it’s structured count have a net savings of around $1.8M for 2025 https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

That’s the going rate for someone who signs a deal this year. If Crosby were to sign a new extension today he would be $30m+

It's a negotiating ploy, he's trying to maximize and I don't begrudge the man for doing so. This is most likely going to be the last time in his life to have a shot at making legacy defining sort of money. The way I saw it was that by him throwing that $15M a year number around, that was his beginning asking amount. I think they will get a deal in for less than that. What is also going to effect his FA value is that this is a potentially historic year for RB's coming out in the draft this year. Many think this could be one of the best RB drafts ever, so his value will be impacted by that. I think they get the deal done at around $12M AAV

Can't happen, you can't get guys like Crosby, Garrett or Parsons for that amount of money. Parsons will end up signing somewhere around $33M AAV. That's the going rate for people of Rousseau's and Benford's quality what I suggested above. Rousseau is an above average ascending starting DE, that's what they cost. Benford's level of play has been near elite and that's what they cost. You don't get rid of your two most valuable defenders who are young and ascending because you don't want to pay the going rates. The salary cap has exploded the past 2 years by $50M and 4 years from now it will be up somewhere between $100 - $130 M more. Inflation baby!! Didn't you and I have some arguments regarding Spencer Brown? You said $17M a year was way too much, I said that it wasn't. Turns out that you were right that $17M was what he was worth, he really is worth closer to $20M AAV.

And it states "up to", which means that the AAV could potentially end up being lower than $15M

He makes plays and he's the leader of the defense. If you don't extend him then its just another player that you have to replace, specially considering that once Milano's contract ends after the 2026 season that he probably won't be retained unless he comes in at a bargain deal, that would very likely mean you have two guys to replace. If they can get Bernard on a good deal I'd keep him.

Now we just need to get Cook at around $12m AAV, Bernard at around $10m AAV, Rousseau at around $23m AAV and Benford around $21m AAV. Get all these deals done and that frees up close to $20m from this years cap, extend Josh to an additional 4 years $245m and that will free up another $12m

If we were to get this guy in a trade I'd be very happy. He's 30, so he has a few good years left. I would think a 2025 4th and 2026 5th could get the deal done.

As a player, you want frank transparency from your coach and what it is that they expect out of you and this is a way to motivate him. I expect Keon to work his ass off, along with Kincaid and Bishop and all have improved years. There is some really good talent there, they just need to go out there and realize their potential.

The biggest needs for the Bills are: DT DE CB Safety WR I would say in that order but I could be convinced that WR is a bigger need than Safety. With that said, if Nick Emmanwori or Malaki Starks falls to the Bills, specially Emmanwori, they just may not be able to pass up on either of them. They both have very good size, great instincts and blazing 4.3's speed. The board would probably go apoplectic with drafting a safety with the first round choice but you could conceivably be drafting a future All pro player.

Don't be surprised if the Bills seriously kick the tires on Josh Palmer. He's 25, estimated to come in at around $5M per season, he is a boundary receiver who has good size. And surprisingly, his ability to separate and win against man to man coverage is among the better ones in the NFL. I could see the Bills going after a low cost high upside option like Palmer, paired with either a premium or middle round draft choice.

I think they have it wrong, move it back big time to the 20 on the touchback but move the kick-offs 5 to 10 yards back.

I doubt it, I don't believe he'd use the majority of those funds to finance those contracts, but at least he would have the means to do so and having the means to do it is the first step. In regards to your second point, I'm not sure if I am following you. According to Brett's thinking is that this new way of tracking viewership totals should show a truer picture of the viewership numbers and that it would most likely represent a significantly higher amount of viewers which in turn would increase the leverage for the NFL when negotiating broadcast contracts. What he's speculating is that when it comes time to renegotiate in 2028/2029 that an entity like Netflix will come in and look to begin broadcasting what FOX/CBS currently have with their Sunday NFL deals by outbidding them, specially considering that they have a market cap of around $430 Billion which dwarfs what FOX has which is around $25 Billion and CBS who has a market cap of around $11 Billion. Very likely that one of those two lose out, and I wouldn't be surprised that you see Apple make a play for the other one.

I created a thread on who I’d prefer and why

He is a decent man corner and played solid football with the Bills. Personally, I'd hope for someone better in FA but you could make it work as long as their is decent money spent for other positions.

They could extend him and save $11.7M from the cap. https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

The only way I'd agree to a deal with him is if it was very incentive based. You offer a low guarantee of around $12 M with the possibility of earning $4M if he plays in 15 games and if he plays all 17 games he gets $6M. And then another max potential of $6M per year if he hits certain sack production.

Interesting nugget in what Brett wrote is that he speculates that the 8% share Laurie sold which was $650 Million was used to help finance their "rolling bonus options" to keep all their players. The Bills did just sell a 20% stake which is supposed to net Pegula around $1 Billion, maybe and hopefully they will use some of that to do the same?

For those that are interested in what the future of the salary cap could look like in the next 4-5 years, this is an excellent read.