thurst44

Except the Bills beat Atlanta in Atlanta, KC in KC when both teams were coming off similar slides, they even overcame a snowstorm that equalized a home game that should not have been close. They came back after pulling out of a nosedive to beat every team not named the Patriots, and that takes some focus.Yes, there was luck to get into the playoffs at 9-7, and yes, they played better than their stats would suggest, but to say they got "lucky" to get to 9-7 is unfair. Maybe it was coaching, perhaps it's that their downright disastrous three-game slide made them (and their point differential) look much worse than they were. Also, it may be that Tyrod played better than we give him credit for. Yes, he was inconsistent, but he was also very dynamic at the top of his game, was one of the best in the league at evading sacks, and not throwing interceptions helps win games more than many of us think. He also completely disappeared in many games, so I'm fine with rolling the dice on trying to get one of the best of a strong stock of rookie QBs, but Tyrod was probably a bit better than many here think.

Agreed, if the top 4 are off the board before the Bills are able to do anything (for whatever reason), that will mean that some good position players drop, and I'd prefer they stay put, grab the best LB or DT (yes, yes, I get it, they are not QBs and we need a QB, but in this scenario, we've accepted that we didn't get one), and gauge whether Lamar Jackson will drop (or even do their best to move up from 22 to 13 or 14, which might not cost much), then grab a WR and RB in the 2nd, or if a CB is dropping (if there's anyplace I truly trust the process with McBeane, it's defensive backs).

In fairness, they also weren't particularly positive about Carson Wentz a couple years ago (a fact they allude to and recognize that one of their main markers--years played in college--might be becoming less relevant). However, there are just so many red flags about Allen. Kyle Crabbs made a good point when he was on WGR the other day that there is a break between what analysts think of Allen and what commentators say about him. The latter has an interest in building Allen up, to gin up as much excitement in the draft as possible. if we took him at 12 and still had a plethora of picks in this deep draft, I could get excited about the potential of his arm, and root for A.J. to be a Keenum--style surprise in the interim. However, giving up most of our picks to get a guy who might one day be great, but probably won't be for awhile, and has the highest bust potential, does not seem wise. It's hard to see (and analysts back this up) that Lamar Jackson is any more of a risk (and probably even less so) and can be had along with possible future starters at linebacker, defensive tackle, running back, wide receiver, etc.

I was responding to your own scenario which had the Giants taking Barkley, so in that exact scenario, Darnold would indeed be available at 3 since Allen and Barkley were the only 2 off the board.

Why is everyone so sure the Jets like Rosen? Mayfield and especially Darnold seem just as likely here.

Very simple, they don't take the QB we want (i.e. if the Giants really want Barkley--which is the case if you believe the local NYC press--and the Jets take Allen--if he's who we don't want--and we don't have to expend as much draft to get Rosen or Mayfield). It may not be likely, but you have to admit the original premise is POSSIBLE. Again, it's possible that the Jets are posturing for Barkley, as preposterous as that may be. It's the Jets. As someone who has lived in the Jets market for a good 30-something of my 44 years on this planet, it's hard not to believe that the Jets might not do something head scratching. It's very unlikely, but there's a reason that if you type "jets draft" into YouTube, it autofills "blunders"

Fair enough. And that's a great picture on the site :). So then we've established he's inaccurate in windy conditions. So, since you suggested I "try again", I looked further into this... Allen's accuracy when playing on the road: 58% http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/3918298/josh-allen Laramie's wind conditions vs. Norman's wind conditions: https://weatherspark.com/y/3574/Average-Weather-in-Laramie-Wyoming-United-States-Year-Round https://weatherspark.com/y/8229/Average-Weather-in-Norman-Oklahoma-United-States-Year-Round Laramie's windier, but not by that much...Louisville and Los Angeles are much less (I'd say obviously, but I did not realize how windy Wyoming was, so research was definitely vital). Buffalo actually lands between Norman and Los Angeles, wind-wise. I will admit that I feel a bit dumb on the whole wind in Wyoming. However, looking into it has made me more resistant to the idea of Josh Allen. If he dropped and we took him while also able to draft a bunch of other players, then I'm all for his potential, but trading up to 2 as Ryan suggests and giving up on a bunch of draft picks, particularly considering last year we might have hit on a starting cornerback 1 and a starting left tackle (and the book is still out, borderline miraculously, on Zay Jones) on the picks in the 22-65 range, is questionable. I'd like the four chances to draft potential starters to help him if we take a guy who most experts label an ultimate boom-or-bust guy as Allen. For the record, Tyrod Taylor had a 62% completion pct in Buffalo last year. http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14163/tyrod-taylor

They have three of them on the roster, including one they payed quite a bit to lure from the Dolphins. They might not use them well, but they definitely care about them. Also, Clay was 13th among tight ends, which may be below his contract level, but basic math says is above average for the league.

How about instead of comparing him to a guy who is our team's mortal enemy and a guy who would have likely moved the Bills out of Buffalo the minute he craved attention in the form of headlines, we compare him to one of our own guys who used a chip on his shoulder to good effect. Thurman Thomas said that teams that passed on him on draft day would pay, and as we all know that meant every team -- and he made good on that promise.

So let's get a guy whose accuracy has been terrible in normal conditions. I'm thinking maaaaaybe, we should not listen to Rexy.

They don't really have Jackson significantly higher than Rosen, and they have Rosen marginally more likely to be better than adequate. Their argument, and there's some logic to it, is that Jackson didn't have nearly the supporting cast of Rosen. That manifested itself in his highest drop rate. On that same note, that also accentuates the point that he didn't play the same level of competition, soooo... Personally, I'd marginally prefer a trade up and Rosen to getting Jackson at 12 or 22, but I'd be excited with either on my team (or Mayfield).

This mock does and I would be ecstatic if these were the first two rounds! https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/two-round-2018-nfl-mock-draft-broncos-take-barkley-as-qbs-go-1-2-3-4-after-trade/

FWIW, someone (not sure if it was WGR or WFAN in New York, feel like it may have been Sal C. on the former) yesterday was hearing rumors that the Broncos, particularly Elway, like Rudolph better than most teams.

I know I'll catch fire for this, but having lived in NYC most of my life (family from Buffalo, went to college in Buffalo during SB years), can't help but feel the Jets might be eyeing Barkley. Probably not, but the Jets have a history of surprising picks; it's almost as if they live to hear their fans' groans on Draft Day. My logic is they know everyone will be expecting them to want a QB, so the move forces the Browns to use first pick on QB instead of Barkley, while enticing a team like the Bills, Broncos, or Cardinals to make a huge offer to the Giants, drawing them away from Barkley. Again, not saying it's likely, just that we don't truly know...especially when the Jets are involved.

But it hasn't happened yet, and is also likely to NOT happen. This is true!

Aw, man, I like him...and can't stand the Cowboys. Grrr.

Doesn't this completely validate the trade since Sammy got 16m for a 500-yard season (and not from the Rams). He wasn't going to have a better season here, and we got a cornerback who helped us go to the playoffs. We also got a 2nd round pick, but you conveniently leave that out to fit your narrative of freaking the bleep out. EJ hasn't walked in free agency yet, and if he does, we got a replacement already who is a two-time pro bowler for cheap. Yes, he's been injured, but so has EJ. Remind me how many career TDs Mahomes has. Zero? Ok. Let's call him a stud after he actually plays well. At least you're "fair" on this one (not sure why you omitted the other draft pick). Darby was also hurt much of the season and while he played well enough, he was hardly the reason they won. Oh, let me be fair about this ... the jury's still out on this one. The Chiefs who we beat last year and who got just as far as we did? Actually, I hated this move, too, but you can't win em all. This one, I'm not sure what your issue is. We have Kyle and Star at DL, so ????? I didn't love this one either, but I get the plan, a ton of cap space in 2019. I'd say you're more like parkay, you might be "on a roll" but that's not necessarily a positive. While I would have liked to try him at another position, we do have our new LT who played well so there is a logic, plus it puts us in a good position on draft day (despite anything the Jets may have done), and again removes a ton of cap space from 2019, which theoretically would make us free agency players while our new QB (we'll see how that goes) is going into his second season. You love the thought behind it? Ok, then you should be fine. Was he supposed to predict Wood's career-ending injury. Stuff happens. They got a WR you like. He's under contract next year. The injury was frustrating. So was the blown call on an amazing catch in the Pats game that might have changed the momentum of that game. Let's move on. Um, he's supposed to predict a WR who set a record for catches, was a four-year starter, and by all accounts was a stand-up kid all his life who raised money for charity and had zero prior red flags would suddenly freak out one day and try to kill himself? It's a bizarre event, but it's also bizarre to blame Beane for any of it. And, to your last point, in that same draft we got a guy who is already a top ten cornerback (and in a passing league isn't that pretty vital), our actual starting LT from last season, and a LB in the 5th round who had some spectacular plays last year (and a QB who looked mostly terrible and another LB who {shrug}). Yes, go Bills!!!

Ok, I'll bite. How exactly would anyone predict this?!?! He was a record setting wide out who by all accounts was a standup kid. Until recently, his interviews made him seem about as together as could be. Whatever this is, this just sounds immeasurably sad (either drugs or mental illness).

It's in Revelations, people!!!

And we forgot the silliest reason why this is a bad move for the Jets. The Jets have had their best recent picks when they are slotted at 6 (Adams, Leonard Smith)

Do you honestly know who will be and won't be a "franchise qb"? If you look at the top five QBs, practically no one has the same order even when just predicting. We've been going back and forth on Josh Allen, who is clearly moving up draft boards, and may be the reason the Jets moved up--and if he turns out to be what many of us (including me) think he is, and the Bills did want him, they might be saving us from ourselves. Look at the most comparable draft in 1983. The (arguably) best QB went off the board at 27, the second best was the top pick, and the third best was ours (and he's an afterthought in the 30 For 30 about that draft) and we had the 12 pick that year ... and took a tight end, and got our "franchise qb" at 14. I'll posit that worked out pretty well for us. And what team took Ken O'Brien when Dan Marino was on the board? The last time the Jets took a QB in the draft, I bust out laughing (which is unfortunate as Hackenberg comes across as an extremely likable individual), and that seems valid since here we are two years later, the Jets have just signed two established QBs, and we are still expecting them to draft a QB, so goodbye Hackenberg and Petty. That's also "common sense and history" We might end up not being able to trade and wind up with Lamar Jackson, and he could turn out to be better than many experts think. He certainly put up impressive numbers with his arm, incredible numbers with his feet, and is no slouch in the intangibles. Theoretically, there could be a run on the top four QBs, and it could drop someone like Vita Vea or Roquan Smith or Quentin Nelson to us and Jackson might still be there at 22 and we would still have four Day 2 picks in what's considered a great draft. The Jets move up might convince the Browns they have to take a QB, they take Darnold, the Giants take Barkley (I'm in Jersey a few miles from MetLife and Giants fans and experts do NOT think Giants are going QB, but again who really knows), the Jets are enamored with Allen, and the Browns, who we've already traded with this off-season, decide to get a couple more picks from us, and voila, Rosen is a Bill. Let's not forget the craziest, but not impossible, or even all that unlikely, scenario--that the Jets don't even want a QB. Yes, conventional wisdom (and maybe basic wisdom) dictates you trade up for a QB. However, the Jets are NOTORIOUS on draft day for, to put it generously, not being predictable. ESPN even put together this montage of groaners a few years ago, and while they have had some good picks, they have also added to the "highlight" reel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZxNeFLuY98 (and, no, they are not drafting that Peter Pan dude) It's not ignorance to say "we don't know" when we genuinely don't know. And draft history tells us we truly do not know.

Considering the Jets' history of drafting QBs (somehow even waaay worse than ours--we mostly just don't pick them), I'm not overly concerned that we are "screwed" b/c of this move. There's still many, many scenarios where we draft an elite QB. If we don't move up and they pick a QB we don't want, they may have even inadvertently saved us a draft pick or two.

Your avatar would be ashamed of your sleuthing skills (sacre bleu!).

If so, I hope the Jets get him and "win" Allen and we get the "consolation prize" of Rosen, Darold, or Mayfield.

That's kind of the thing. Given the Jets looooong history of drafting the wrong QB, whoever it is that they want, that's a red flag that we should not take him.