thurst44

Only a fan of Wentz and Watson in past two years (and not so much that i'm mad about trading down given we got an instant top 10 cb and we undervalue those here given we have to STOP qbs in a passing league) ... Goff helped me win my fantasy league (so i'll admit i may have been wrong) but love 3/4 this year, so also hope it's not that (1) (although i'm in the minority who would be happy with Lamar too).

I'm pretty sure Brandt is actually fond of the Bills if not a fan. Ditto, Schrager, but with him, it's empathy because if memory serves, he's a lifelong Browns fan.

Did they say who they thought the Bills would draft in this scenario?

In fairness, in 2004, we wouldn't have had to move up any higher than 10 to get franchise QB (and imo, that 4th out of 3 is looking likely to be drafted as early as 1st right now).

I agree. This is a believable draft, but I'd take Vander Esch or Evans there. Or if we are going lineman, how about the versatile Wynn. Price is very likely to drop into the late 2nd round. That being said, while I'm not on board with second pick, I'm impressed with this draft all around. It's not gonna happen, but if Guice dropped to mid-2nd round, I'd be ecstatic to take him.

Interesting observation. Seahawks did well early in that one, Jags and Rams only came on this season (although I certainly would not bet against the two of them in the SB next year, but Rams could flame out quickly as they are flirting with salary cap calamity). Browns, well, we'll see, as of now they are 1-15 and 0-16 in the last few years. We'll also see with us, but I do ultimately suspect 2018 could be a step back for a 2019 run. I'm just not counting us out yet. Ok, then Tyrod had 2196 college rushing yards vs. A.J.'s -50, but I don't think anyone's arguing AJ will be better at running than Tyrod. And, similarly, I'm not saying he won't beat Tyrod by keeping more drives alive with more accurate passing. There's nothing to prove or disprove that. He's a wild card with some intrigue. If we can get the o-line to where the QB is not getting killed every time, then I hope we get a QB like Rosen and take a shot at going with him, maybe start 1-4, but see if they come on at (what appears to be) the easier tail end of the season.

Not all best players are old: Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer. I'm excited for Milano and Dawkins (and even Zay Jones) next year. Kelvin Benjamin is great if healthy. Browns, really?!?! Let's not get carried away...but yes, they will probably be much better. It would be hard not to. Ah, no, I mean the four teams who made the playoffs with a worse point differentials. The 7-9 2010 Seattle Seahawks, the 8-8 2011 Denver Broncos, the 8-8 2004 St. Louis Rams (ha, almost wrote L.A.), and the 9-7 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers. And I agree with you about the QBs: we don't know, and that is one reason I can see the potential for disaster. Tyrod had his flaws, but his ability to not turnover the football kept the Bills in a lot of games. AJ has actually shown a similar knack in college and limited pro experience. However, he definitely does not have the ability to keep a drive alive with his legs and that's pretty objective. Looked up his college rushing yards...an almost unfathomable -50 career yards. He's a wild card, but look at Case Keenum.

I am also wary about fairness, but it is about a very specific, almost unique (although Chiefs had a similar seasonal arc) way these losses happened. It's not just a matter of removing the 3 worst games, but a 3 game stretch where the team played markedly different from the rest of the year. I'm a huge fan of 538, going back to Nate's days as Poblano, and would genuinely be curious to hear their opinions as to whether the specific way the season happened has an effect. I'm also curious to hear if making the playoffs has an impact, since the four teams worse than the Bills in differential who made the playoffs went from an aggregate 32-32 to 35-29 the following season.

Again, not to try to find the silver lining in everything, but there is a non-biased reason to believe the Bills are an outlier in this theory, and this is a case where the stats might not be telling the whole story. I'd like to see the stats for before and after our nosedive. Yes, the worst games happened, but we watched the season and know how the season played out. That was a historically bad three-game stretch which kind of spiraled out of control and were outscored by 80 pts. It does seem important to gauging the quality of a team, how these losses and stats happened. It really seems more telling how they were able to get it back together after it epically fell apart, and I'd be curious to see how 538 would address that.

Furthermore, it might go even deeper, as the 2017 Bills might be a total outlier, as most of their point differential and stats weakness stems from a very singular three-game stretch. Yes, those three games happened, but it seems significant that the team played well before and after, and that the true story of what it implies for next year was a bit more complex than the stats tell.

Haha, fair enough. We'll see where we are in September.

Benjamin was not here when we started last year, Matthews had questions going in. Zay hadn't played a game last year (he may be imploding, or he may see the yips and a near-death experience as the impetus to take the next step). Jeremy Kerley is slightly better than Andre Holmes (who is still here and likely better than Philly Brown) and Deonte Thompson was a mid-season replacement so also wasn't there at the start. Not worse. At worst, impossible to say. It's a bit of a silly argument though as my point is mostly that our WR was pretty awful going into last season . Anyway, I think we're not that far apart on opinions, but just feel it's a bit more wide open. My initial reaction (more tart than I meant it) was that the poster was not saying anything about current quality of teams, and likely more making the point that last year when we started so many people here predicted we were tanking and we went 9-7. Oddly, I might be more inclined to believe the 2 win season a possibility (although i'm tired of the prognosticators teeing off on the bills), but that a 2 loss is also not impossible. Also, as Barley has hinted at, there's still a lot of moves to be made. Go Bills!

No, one poster said they are 6th until proven otherwise and the other kind of missed the point that he wasn't saying either way. Funny thing is, I don't think the two of us are all that far apart. I would not be shocked for us to be 6-10 (and as you said, improving), but I don't see this etched in stone as some (not saying you). The point differential argument has bugged me, because of how it usually happens vs. how it happened for us. The score was run up in a three game stretch where the team was just terrible and outscored by 80 pts. They were 5-2 before that, 4-2 after that run. There's a strong argument that that stretch was an outlier, and that there's more to the story than that it's anything that would determine how they play next year. I would suggest that in the 4-2 ending where they only lost to the eventual AFC champions and they showed the character to not let their nosedive define them suggests more about this season than that three game stretch. But in any case, let's look at point differential determining the next season for playoff teams. The four playoff teams with worse differentials (2010 Seahawks, 2011 Broncos, 2004 Rams, 1989 Steelers) were in their following season: 7-9, 13-3, 6-10, 9-7. As for positional rankings, I don't see how the CB situation IS worse at all. Tre White will have one more experience after a year where he was PFF's ROTY, Vontae Davis is a veteran, multi-year pro-bowler, Philip Gaines, going in, is not appreciably worse than Leonard Johnson as backup, who they will still likely re-sign. OL, I'll give you, but we still don't even know wtf is going on with Richie and Cordy didn't do much of anything last year, so with the right side the same, it might not end up being that much of a downgrade. QB...well, I liked Tyrod more than most (a lot more than most), and AJ is a question mark at best, while the "rookie" is a literal question mark, so fair enough. WRs were a complete question mark going into last season, and it would be hard to be worse than that. LBs is for now questionable, Lorax looks less promising than going into last season and is older, Milano looks more promising, Humber more promising (but didn't promise much at all), and there's a big hole at middle linebacker instead of a player no one here seemed to think that much of at the time. But again, as you said, the rosters are anything but finished.

How are we worse at WR than September. We had Matthews #1, now we have Benjamin. We don't have "no LBs" -- Milano stepped up in a huge way, and Lorenzo was looking great at the end, and Humber is still there (and we expected nothing from him last year) Ditto "no O-line"...it's definitely a step down from last year. We also improved in some ways -- DL is hard to gauge, b/c we did have Dareus at this time last year, but we didn't when we went 4-2 at the end of the season. We may be taking a step back or we may not. We overachieved last year, probably, but that wasn't in a vacuum. It may have had something to do with the level of coaching. In any case, my point in defense of the other poster is that he was simply saying "until it is proved otherwise, we are the 6th best team" and I agree to an extent, especially 5 days before the draft when this team is nowhere near set. I see the possibility of a great defense holding it up for an offense that struggles at times, kind of like last year, and if we draft a QB who picks it up fast, who knows. Could they be a 2 win team, sure...I doubt it, and it's annoying how the prognosticators always key in on the Bills as a 2 or 3 win team, we never are, and they never get called for it, yet some fans will echo it every year. Not that it really matters, I suppose.

Well, how about this, maybe not immediately presume your own team is terrible, and be absolutely unflappably sure about it. It's the "woe is us" "we're always the worst" postulating that is itself the worst, particularly coming off a playoff season.

I think you may have wandered away from the point here. His argument was that we don't know what next year will bring for any team, so until anyone proves otherwise, we are what our record says we are. Ultimately, the Bills are the biggest of question marks, because the defense was dominant at its best (its stats were mostly obliterated during the three week stretch in which it fell apart) and we don't know what the QB or O-Line situation will be. Plus, from what we've seen of this organization and this administration, there will be many changes between now and early September. That being said, I don't really see where our talent level is that far from where we started last year, nor do I see how the Raiders improved from the bellyflop of last year (and we beat them handily), so I don't particularly buy that one, and feel like the Chargers are the most overrated team in the league for their "potential." Chiefs did a worse mid-season nosedive than we did.

Ugh. Will you stop it. They made it to the playoffs legit. Why do you feel the need to attack your own team the year after breaking a 17-year-drought? Can you not enjoy anything? They beat two playoff teams on the road; they pulled themselves out of one of the worst nosedives a team could have. Did they exceed their talent? Maybe, but to call them a "bad team," is just ridiculous and reductive. Funny thing is I agree with you that I can understand them not getting multiple night games, because they are a hard-to-gauge team at this point in the off-season, and that lack of night games will probably be to their benefit on the field (and certainly, personally, I enjoy Sunday at 1pm games best) but give them a little credit for a hard-fought run to the playoffs.

Exactly, there's a time and a place for Pan, and...well, that probably was it, but still....

I guess it doesn't matter, but I don't really see how Geno Smith is a "capable back-up" while EJ is a bust (in my mind, they're both technically both -- they played similarly in the one game they played last year, neither Raiders fans nor Giants fans were enthusiastic about it when either of them were thrust into action). Both were awful as starters, with the only difference being where EJ was a slow burn of horror, Geno flamed out spectacularly (9 more TDs, 20 more INTs). Also, the whole premise of this is kind of silly when they include 2016, 2017 in it. We can say Patrick Mahomes is a "Franchise QB" as much as we could say Jake Locker was a "Franchise QB" at this point in his career. He may well turn out to be, but he's tied in NFL TDs with Paul Giamatti, Senator Kamala Harris, Rowlf the Dog, and me (but one more interception).

Well, he did emphasize trade up, and EJ was a trade down where we got a DROY candidate who was then traded for our current best player. When EJ was drafted, personally I was ok with it, because they were aiming for a QB and he was about as good as any that year, and still could almost be argued (by default...what an awful year for QBs...for Geno's 9 more TDs, he had 20 more interceptions, Glennon's the "class" of the class, I guess, and that is SAD).

This is a great read and, honestly, it's the first compelling argument for Allen I've read, and that's kind of the point. You set it up as people thinking they are smarter than NFL scouts, analysts, GMs, coaches, and, at least for me, that's not why I'm wary of Allen. I'm well aware that my knowledge base when it comes to football, even having watched since childhood and being into my 40s now, is less than many here, let alone professionals. However, it is precisely the professionals' opinions and the way they talk about him that makes me wary of trading up to get Allen. When they describe him as "what he could be" or "unpolished, but what an arm" or that he looks like a QB, or the manner by which he's rising that rings bells from the past and enough of them to set my hackles up the same way as others who have gone bust in the past. Sometimes it's not the matter of amateurs thinking they no more, but amateurs knowing that sometimes certain professionals will think they know better than everyone else and get too too cute and sometimes they are wrong. The comparisons to Russell have little to do with his attitude, but more with the way sometimes the NFL groupthink can become enamored with one player. Is the comparison unfair? Well, most comparisons are. To be honest, I don't remember having much of an opinion about Russell either way at the time. In any case, I do agree with the last part. Saying I wouldn't take him in the fifth round or I won't be a fan is dumb. I'd be happy enough with him at 12 or even a small trade-up. If we trade a ton of draft capital and pick him at 2, ahead of two or three QBs I like for my own reasons, some logical, some speculative, I won't quit my fandom or even close, but I will be deflated and disappointed, and might be a little less inclined to trust the process (not like a random fan 400 miles from their home turf is going to impact that anyway). All that being said, I will hope that you are right and root for the guy, and for the defense to play lights out (as it is capable even now--well, once they have a middle linebacker anyway) until he hopefully lives up to his potential.

I agree, but we are talking about a team who took four wide receivers in one draft just two years ago.

Yes, let's get the guy who was the 4th most successful QB in the Mountain West Conference and who most analysts tab as the most likely bust. Let's take the guy who has played terribly but "looks like a QB" over the guy who has actually played well in college. When has that ever worked out poorly for us (or other teams who did the same)? I really don't get the dislike of Rosen. I understand being wary of his injuries, but would think a guy who most analysts consider one of the top two QBs would be exciting. As for the Josh of this thread, it's all been said (and probably in a better fashion than i ever have by other posters)...he just seems like such obvious fools' gold.

We should be so lucky! Do you think he'd go for us?

Why do I suspect your buddy also predicted them as a 4-5 win team last year too? The WR situation isn't much different than last year, maybe even slightly better than what they had Opening Day (Benjamin>Matthews), Bills offense is a question mark: we don't know who will be the QB and when we do, won't even know what that will mean for this year: is McCarron a diamond in the rough of the bench or was he rightfully a clipboard holder? Will our draftee be Josh Rosen, who may be near NFL ready or, like anyone else, could be a bust, or Josh Allen, who probably wouldn't be ready for years and if thrust in, yes, we probably are a 4-5 win team. The o-line is not so much in shambles as a giant question mark. If Incognito does not come back, Groy has filled in capably at times, Miller could return to 2016 form. Bodine has started every game in his 4-year career and has been decent at times. Ducasse has played ok, and way better than anyone but PFF will give him credit for, Dawkins looks like a star on the rise at LT, McDermott is an interesting prospect at RT. It's not inspiring, and hard not to feel like a step back, but there are options that could make it at least less than a liability (and last year, o-line play was all over the place). As for WRs, it's slim pickings at this point, and they probably are wise to wait post-draft (and maybe post-June 1 cuts) when maybe a new QB excites FAs (or scares them out of their wits). Jeremy Maclin has been a shell of himself the last couple years. Eric Decker is probably on the downslide. Dontrelle Inman is still young and could be a good third if Zay can shake off the first season yips and off-season whatever-the-f-that-was. Bills were probably wise to avoid the initial FA rush this year as if any position was particularly overpaid, that was it. Injury prone players with few 1000-yard seasons were getting 14-16m dollar contracts, while guys like Paul Richardson and Marqise Lee who have yet to top 900 yards were near double-digit contracts.