thurst44

As 1959 said, it doesn't really matter whether we trust them or not. We can only watch and hope (and sometimes b and moan). I didn't like bringing in Ducasse, but he played decently last year and, sure we can debate this, but he made less than 500k over the vet minimum so saying they paid him too much seems a bit trifling.

First off, when we "burned off" 5 picks, when we got likely the best linebacker in the draft, not just "a linebacker." Second, no, they did not set the franchise "back 5 years" (and to me that's one of the few saving graces). They have eight picks left and nine next year (and maybe some comp picks), so they still have the regular 3 picks in the first 3 rounds. If Allen is a bust (as both of us suspect), he might simply never play and we'll try again. If Rosen and/or Jackson play well, yes, they blew it, and they missed the chance to not have to worry about QB for a decade or more, but that whole "set back 5 years" is just not true.

Ha, this is my problem with the pick though. I'm terrible at picking out what QB is going to be good (liked Akili as well), but my intuition's been almost perfect with QBs I was sure would be terrible (Leaf, Losman, Hackenberg, many others). Josh Allen seems made of red flags. Here's hoping Allen breaks that streak. Hopeful things (besides arm): he's affable, seemed to be maturing at a faster rate than most rising QBs, someone noted he was the leader of the QBs at the combine. Kelly's stats in college were even more unimpressive, fwiw, and he improved. Still hard to get past: experts observations he's bad at reading defenses, wilted against good competition So, we'll see, I guess. I do believe we have far fewer holes on defense than people think, and Tremaine Edmunds is likely the steal of the draft (quite possible we have the PFF ROTY on defense for a second year in a row), so do feel we at least improved ourselves in one pick, and there's a small chance a lot of us are wrong and we got our QB of the future (as much as i would have preferred four other qbs to this guy).

I tend to see political motives in a lot, and I truly am not a fan of this pick, but the motivation for this looks a lot more basic than that. This is the chase for the (usually) imaginary potential. Rosen looked great in college, but b/c he feels ready, he feels complete and taking him grants the selector no glory (you made the obvious choice). However, the project is sexier, and plays to the vanity of the coach/GM as if they hit, it makes them look prescient for seeing the potential in him, and coaching geniuses for being able to get the most out of him.

I mostly agree. My only rankle here is one of Allen's adherents' arguments for overlooking his ridiculous amount of red flags is his leadership qualities. How he was on social media at 15 or 16 barely means anything wrt how he acts as a leader now, but it does put a small dent into one of his defenses.

FWIW, Krabb last night on WGR justified his Pats-get-Rosen trade (ugh) by saying some teams have 30 players with first down grades, thus 49ers might be fine with 23/31, so it's always hard to know, but my sense would be a lower number of (probably)-can't-misses with a deep pool of round 2-round 3 types

For a late round pick, maybe. Living in NYC area, listening to WFAN, I've never heard anything positive about him--absolute disaster area!

I think both of those are possible, as is Rosen for silly/no reason(s) or genuine injury concern.

Shaq Lawson was actually picked at #19 and was a very highly rated prospect on draft day. Bears fans (the draft was in Chicago) were chanting for him to be the pick at #11 (recall noting this BEFORE he was our pick). 19 was the lowest position I saw him in any mock. Furthermore, he's been far from the disaster many on this board have painted him as. He's been hurt, but when he's played, many weeks he got good grades from PFF for setting the edge against the run. At worst, it was a mid-first round pick that as of yet has not particularly set us back. Look at the picks after -- other than Myles Jack (who had larger injury concerns) and Deion Jones, it's hard to say what they actually missed that was obvious. Many mocks had us taking Ragland with that 19 pick.

I'm in the get-your-QB camp this year, BUT, we will NOT know if any team save the Patriots have a franchise QB until (probably) a couple years from now :).

Ha, same here. Most years I'm railing against the idea of taking a QB too high, but this year just feels different. I'm starting to (mostly internally) rail against those who don't want to take a QB.

Only a fan of Wentz and Watson in past two years (and not so much that i'm mad about trading down given we got an instant top 10 cb and we undervalue those here given we have to STOP qbs in a passing league) ... Goff helped me win my fantasy league (so i'll admit i may have been wrong) but love 3/4 this year, so also hope it's not that (1) (although i'm in the minority who would be happy with Lamar too).

I'm pretty sure Brandt is actually fond of the Bills if not a fan. Ditto, Schrager, but with him, it's empathy because if memory serves, he's a lifelong Browns fan.

Did they say who they thought the Bills would draft in this scenario?

In fairness, in 2004, we wouldn't have had to move up any higher than 10 to get franchise QB (and imo, that 4th out of 3 is looking likely to be drafted as early as 1st right now).

I agree. This is a believable draft, but I'd take Vander Esch or Evans there. Or if we are going lineman, how about the versatile Wynn. Price is very likely to drop into the late 2nd round. That being said, while I'm not on board with second pick, I'm impressed with this draft all around. It's not gonna happen, but if Guice dropped to mid-2nd round, I'd be ecstatic to take him.

Interesting observation. Seahawks did well early in that one, Jags and Rams only came on this season (although I certainly would not bet against the two of them in the SB next year, but Rams could flame out quickly as they are flirting with salary cap calamity). Browns, well, we'll see, as of now they are 1-15 and 0-16 in the last few years. We'll also see with us, but I do ultimately suspect 2018 could be a step back for a 2019 run. I'm just not counting us out yet. Ok, then Tyrod had 2196 college rushing yards vs. A.J.'s -50, but I don't think anyone's arguing AJ will be better at running than Tyrod. And, similarly, I'm not saying he won't beat Tyrod by keeping more drives alive with more accurate passing. There's nothing to prove or disprove that. He's a wild card with some intrigue. If we can get the o-line to where the QB is not getting killed every time, then I hope we get a QB like Rosen and take a shot at going with him, maybe start 1-4, but see if they come on at (what appears to be) the easier tail end of the season.

Not all best players are old: Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer. I'm excited for Milano and Dawkins (and even Zay Jones) next year. Kelvin Benjamin is great if healthy. Browns, really?!?! Let's not get carried away...but yes, they will probably be much better. It would be hard not to. Ah, no, I mean the four teams who made the playoffs with a worse point differentials. The 7-9 2010 Seattle Seahawks, the 8-8 2011 Denver Broncos, the 8-8 2004 St. Louis Rams (ha, almost wrote L.A.), and the 9-7 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers. And I agree with you about the QBs: we don't know, and that is one reason I can see the potential for disaster. Tyrod had his flaws, but his ability to not turnover the football kept the Bills in a lot of games. AJ has actually shown a similar knack in college and limited pro experience. However, he definitely does not have the ability to keep a drive alive with his legs and that's pretty objective. Looked up his college rushing yards...an almost unfathomable -50 career yards. He's a wild card, but look at Case Keenum.

I am also wary about fairness, but it is about a very specific, almost unique (although Chiefs had a similar seasonal arc) way these losses happened. It's not just a matter of removing the 3 worst games, but a 3 game stretch where the team played markedly different from the rest of the year. I'm a huge fan of 538, going back to Nate's days as Poblano, and would genuinely be curious to hear their opinions as to whether the specific way the season happened has an effect. I'm also curious to hear if making the playoffs has an impact, since the four teams worse than the Bills in differential who made the playoffs went from an aggregate 32-32 to 35-29 the following season.

Again, not to try to find the silver lining in everything, but there is a non-biased reason to believe the Bills are an outlier in this theory, and this is a case where the stats might not be telling the whole story. I'd like to see the stats for before and after our nosedive. Yes, the worst games happened, but we watched the season and know how the season played out. That was a historically bad three-game stretch which kind of spiraled out of control and were outscored by 80 pts. It does seem important to gauging the quality of a team, how these losses and stats happened. It really seems more telling how they were able to get it back together after it epically fell apart, and I'd be curious to see how 538 would address that.

Furthermore, it might go even deeper, as the 2017 Bills might be a total outlier, as most of their point differential and stats weakness stems from a very singular three-game stretch. Yes, those three games happened, but it seems significant that the team played well before and after, and that the true story of what it implies for next year was a bit more complex than the stats tell.

Haha, fair enough. We'll see where we are in September.

Benjamin was not here when we started last year, Matthews had questions going in. Zay hadn't played a game last year (he may be imploding, or he may see the yips and a near-death experience as the impetus to take the next step). Jeremy Kerley is slightly better than Andre Holmes (who is still here and likely better than Philly Brown) and Deonte Thompson was a mid-season replacement so also wasn't there at the start. Not worse. At worst, impossible to say. It's a bit of a silly argument though as my point is mostly that our WR was pretty awful going into last season . Anyway, I think we're not that far apart on opinions, but just feel it's a bit more wide open. My initial reaction (more tart than I meant it) was that the poster was not saying anything about current quality of teams, and likely more making the point that last year when we started so many people here predicted we were tanking and we went 9-7. Oddly, I might be more inclined to believe the 2 win season a possibility (although i'm tired of the prognosticators teeing off on the bills), but that a 2 loss is also not impossible. Also, as Barley has hinted at, there's still a lot of moves to be made. Go Bills!

No, one poster said they are 6th until proven otherwise and the other kind of missed the point that he wasn't saying either way. Funny thing is, I don't think the two of us are all that far apart. I would not be shocked for us to be 6-10 (and as you said, improving), but I don't see this etched in stone as some (not saying you). The point differential argument has bugged me, because of how it usually happens vs. how it happened for us. The score was run up in a three game stretch where the team was just terrible and outscored by 80 pts. They were 5-2 before that, 4-2 after that run. There's a strong argument that that stretch was an outlier, and that there's more to the story than that it's anything that would determine how they play next year. I would suggest that in the 4-2 ending where they only lost to the eventual AFC champions and they showed the character to not let their nosedive define them suggests more about this season than that three game stretch. But in any case, let's look at point differential determining the next season for playoff teams. The four playoff teams with worse differentials (2010 Seahawks, 2011 Broncos, 2004 Rams, 1989 Steelers) were in their following season: 7-9, 13-3, 6-10, 9-7. As for positional rankings, I don't see how the CB situation IS worse at all. Tre White will have one more experience after a year where he was PFF's ROTY, Vontae Davis is a veteran, multi-year pro-bowler, Philip Gaines, going in, is not appreciably worse than Leonard Johnson as backup, who they will still likely re-sign. OL, I'll give you, but we still don't even know wtf is going on with Richie and Cordy didn't do much of anything last year, so with the right side the same, it might not end up being that much of a downgrade. QB...well, I liked Tyrod more than most (a lot more than most), and AJ is a question mark at best, while the "rookie" is a literal question mark, so fair enough. WRs were a complete question mark going into last season, and it would be hard to be worse than that. LBs is for now questionable, Lorax looks less promising than going into last season and is older, Milano looks more promising, Humber more promising (but didn't promise much at all), and there's a big hole at middle linebacker instead of a player no one here seemed to think that much of at the time. But again, as you said, the rosters are anything but finished.

How are we worse at WR than September. We had Matthews #1, now we have Benjamin. We don't have "no LBs" -- Milano stepped up in a huge way, and Lorenzo was looking great at the end, and Humber is still there (and we expected nothing from him last year) Ditto "no O-line"...it's definitely a step down from last year. We also improved in some ways -- DL is hard to gauge, b/c we did have Dareus at this time last year, but we didn't when we went 4-2 at the end of the season. We may be taking a step back or we may not. We overachieved last year, probably, but that wasn't in a vacuum. It may have had something to do with the level of coaching. In any case, my point in defense of the other poster is that he was simply saying "until it is proved otherwise, we are the 6th best team" and I agree to an extent, especially 5 days before the draft when this team is nowhere near set. I see the possibility of a great defense holding it up for an offense that struggles at times, kind of like last year, and if we draft a QB who picks it up fast, who knows. Could they be a 2 win team, sure...I doubt it, and it's annoying how the prognosticators always key in on the Bills as a 2 or 3 win team, we never are, and they never get called for it, yet some fans will echo it every year. Not that it really matters, I suppose.