thurst44

OTC surprisingly seems to have us right up against the cap on its 2025 page today (412k under)... not sure what changed, b/c I saw 14m with them using the same ceiling after the Rousseau signing. That said, they are using a 2025 cap that is bizarrely, unrealistically low (an increase of a few million from 2024 when it's expected to go up 20-25m), so it's likely they have a bit more than that 14m in reality.

Our QB is hardly a slouch and I'm not going to predict Kelce levels for Kincaid, but he's promising as a top 5 TE and possible first option and we have a better TE2 and better pass-catching RBs. We also don't know how the WRs will play this year. Diggs and Davis were doing very little during the drive to the AFC East lead. Yes, Diggs was drawing coverage, but even there, one of the Cover 1 creators cited a stat where the team had a better EPA when Diggs was not on the field. The WR room may not be bad, just different. There seems to be a plan to me: add some upside tall receivers, a speedy WR who was one of the top with separation. Both FA period WR signings had their best season under Brady. It portends to be a very different and interesting offense. Or you could be right. But dismissing it out of hand is not painting the whole picture.

Ed Oliver is also 13th among all eligible defensive linemen (over 200 of them) for pass rush efficiency. He's off to a torrid start.

If we're counting Anderson, don't we have to also count Boldin? He did play in one pre-season game.

White has been targeted just 3 times and the TD he gave up, he played it about as well as anyone could have (Wilson made an amazing play). I suspect he's playing better than you think.

They were also well ahead of the Dolphins and Jets at the end of the season, both of whom finished on long losing streaks except for the game they played each other. Also, let's look at the "upgrades": Jets added a legendary QB who barely seems to want to be there (yet the press is stuck on the Diggs repeating record) and a productive RB who might pair well with Hall or they might have diminishing returns. After that it's players like Mecole Hardman, who could never reach his full potential with Mahomes throwing to him, Quinton Jefferson, a solid contributor who is a bit better than when we practically ran him out of town, and a bunch of meh receivers. The Dolphins have added Jalen Ramsey, who was mortal last year and who Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have practically owned. Beyond that, it's Mike White, Braxton Berrios, Malik Reed (solid role player), Eli Apple {?!}

I love the Kirksey signing, and it assuages the last worry I have. It means we at least have someone experienced in the mix for MLB. I'm guessing Bernard will still play there week 1 and if Bernard proves most of us (including me) wrong, all the better. If not, we have an option of a player with experience to hold down the center and with all the all-pros around him, that may be all we need. He's also a leader (like Edmunds) and perhaps could both be a bridge to Dorian Williams taking over the position and someone who helps him learn the ins and outs, if that's the path. There's instantly more options. However, Dave McBride upthread says it well. When you actually look beyond tackles (and even there, it's pretty close if you consider Edmunds missed 4 games with injury). Edmunds has become one of the best coverage LBs in the league and had an astonishing 1(?!) missed tackle last year. That said, they decided not to extend him for a reason. In any case, both the DB and DL rooms got considerably deeper, and playing next to an all-pro LB, a competent, experienced MLB with leadership qualities may be all they need to have one of the top 5 defenses in the NFL again, if not the best.

How so? It's been one year and a year full of injuries and trauma like arguably no team has ever seen. Maybe they were outplayed and lost at the end. Or maybe they ran out of gas after so many sleepless nights, some figuring out how they were going to get to the next city, others not knowing if their friend would survive, let alone make a full recovery. I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt. They still went 13-3 and none of those losses were by more than a field goal. How is their current roster worse than 2021? A couple players are a bit older (but not showing decline yet) but others (Rousseau for example) are coming into their prime. Even with Kirksey, they will be a little worse at that position, but in every other position group, I'd argue they are better than two years ago. The o-line is a question mark, but it's been bad the last two years and they still had one of the top offenses in the league. Also, maybe you worded it poorly, but "moving further away from being a contender"... they are currently a contender.

Actually 2024 is not remotely that year, but keep fanning flames. There's still a lot of re-working that can be done there as just three re-structures put them well under enough to extend Jones and Hyde into their void years or sign Rapp to a reasonable contract, extend other D-linemen. They won't be players in the FA market, but they will still have elite players at the key positions and plenty of role players. 2025 is the year that could be tricky. They can pretty safely get about 20m under cap with a roster starting with... QB - Allen RB - Cook, Hines WR - Diggs, Shakir, Harty (ok, not worldbeating, but there's two drafts and Davis extension likely not impossible) TE - Knox, Kincaid OL - Dawkins, Torrance, Morse, McGovern, Brown DL - Oliver, Jones DE - Miller, Rousseau LB - Milano, D. Williams S - Hyde, Poyer CB - White, Elam, T. Johnson Sure Miller, Hyde, Poyer are getting up there, but none have shown decline (neither injury was decline) Plus they are set up for a lot of those cutdown time trades Beane loves and could have anywhere from 10-13 draft picks in their second year. 2025 might have to be a bit of a reset year, but not a rebuild. They'll still likely have Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, White, Milano, Rousseau. If Miller can still play and Oliver takes a step forward, that's good, but if not, they save a lot of money by walking away. And there's about 30 players who we don't know about yet. The article is actually a bit dumb as they make a deal about the 30m difference which in this context is piddling and much of it will be eaten up by Chris Jones. The Bengals have done a good job so far, but likely will have the same issues when Burrow is signed to a second contract that is going to be massively bigger than that of Allen or Mahomes. Also, it is being ridiculous acting as if there is no hope for a 2022 draft after one year where Elam had a game where he held great receivers to a 0.0 qbr and two very key INTs, Bedford showed promise to be good enough to even beat him out (people act like it was the other way around), Cook showed promise with a 5.7ypc rookie season, Shakir showed promise, etc. Yes, the Chiefs had a hell of rookie seasons, but a lot of that was by necessity. Further, the writer says Beane has to "draft better" after a 2023 draft in which the first two picks look positively brilliant (the second rounder was often mocked to them in the first and the first round pick was expected to go about 10-15 picks higher and has the potential to be a gamechanger for the offense. Also, you fail to mention that two of the teams that are worse off are the Jets and Dolphins. The former signed a 40-year-old QB who there's still a decent chance might not have it and likely is just a two-year rental and they're back at square one as their young roster hits second contracts, and Miami is still on Tua's first contract and while he looked good last year, he started to look like he had been figured out a bit before he was hurt and he sadly may be a concussion away from retirement. Could things go South, sure, but there's a lot of reasons to believe this team is set up to succeed for years and as long as they have Allen, they are in the mix and he's still years away from 30. This window thing is and always has been nonsense. Signing Hopkins to the contract he likes, however, would probably not be the greatest idea though.

Ha, I relatively recently (prob around 2019) found a cache of a long exchange of Bills-related emails from around 2009 with one of the most negative fans I know (and a bunch of others mostly neutral to positive) and he's advocating for how the Bills should have Chad Henne as he's going to be one of the true greats. I was going to laugh condescendingly and re-send until I noticed that another friend and I were vigorously defending Trent Edwards as still a possible starter in the NFL. Henne at least lasted in the league. What a great post! It's not that you recognized they were on an upswing, but you pretty accurately and thoroughly identified the reasons--so many of which were very in doubt at the time. FWIW, McDermott was the first coach that I remembered truly being happy about when he was hired. I'm always positive about the Bills except for the coaching for some reason. Levy, I was in NYC and was 13 and didn't really even notice he was hired or who he was. Phillips: meh, just too much hype and it felt like fans were itching a bit too hard to push Marv out. Greggo: there was someone else I wanted (maybe Marvin Lewis) and the whole blowing them away with charts seemed the weakest of tea. Mularkey: just did not strike me as anything special. Jauron: what a phone-in of a pick. Gailey: two phone-ins in a row. hard to really hate him and wanted to see him succeed, but nothing exciting about the hire. Marrone: so-so coaching record at Syracuse and seemed a jerk from the start. Really hated this hire. Ryan: Well, I didn't think he would be good (lived in NYC throughout his Jets tenure), but knew he would at least be entertaining and this was so far into the drought that I didn't hate it even if I could not rationalize that it would help them win. McDermott seemed like a genuine head coaching prospect with great mentors.

Three of the worst people in the world in one article... and I'm not even counting Goodell. I honestly have zero opinion about him.

Wouldn't it be funny if a Tremaine Edmunds thread turned into a thread about everything else!

This is not meant as a defense of Maybin by any means (I voted for Mike Williams b/c of higher pick but thought about choosing Maybin for a second); however, I'm not a fan of revisionist history for exaggeration. It's possible what you say is true, and of course reporters' mocks and front office opinions aren't always the same, but Maybin was a 1st round pick in pretty much every mock draft at that point. He had boom-or-bust potential, but had he dropped to the 3rd that would have been huge news.

You might very well eat those words as I doubt he's as easily replaceable as you think given how the defense plays when he's out. We'll see. More importantly though, why does a joyous moment for the team have to turn into half the posts beating up on Edmunds.

This does not have any impact on whether they sign Edmunds or not. We knew this was coming, and it's a very reasonable deal and with six years petty much has to have some malleability, and by the time its larger sums kick in (if Beane's past is prologue), the salary cap will be around 300m. I'm not going to vigorously defend Edmunds except to say he's been the MLB and captain/leader of a defense that's been top 3 3/4 of the time he's been here, and the defense looks significantly worse when he's out or playing hurt. There's a good chance he's much better than most people here think. We'll see what Beane and McDermott think as they're the ones who truly know his value to this system. If they don't extend and draft an LB later this month, that would be a sign he's on the way out. However, I would not be a bit surprised if they extend him and if it's a long contract but in the 10-12m range. I also would not be entirely stunned if they don't. As for Poyer, I don't buy that he could be odd man out b/c despite getting deserved All Pro status this year, he's still past 30 and at a position that does not get as many premium contracts. It might be up to him--at times he's been an ambassador for the team and at other times he's been quite chippy with fans on social media. However, it's likely they could still extend Poyer in a fashion that wouldn't kill the future cap, and it wouldn't be likely to be that long of an extension.