I don't know what putin is thinking. I don't know enough about his intentions, strategy and goals.
It's impossible for me to do more than just speculate that it won't will certainly increase tensions and may affect more than just this theater.
I think Putin is trying to cause tension with NATO and drum up support at home to create a nationalistic mentality of us vs them. I can't go into details for what putin may do in response or what he feels justified in using application of combat forces against turkey, NATO. Etc...
What I think is it just significantly upped the ante.
Hey super genius, when you are done laughing at more dead people let me know your take.