bobobonators

Goodwin. Smh. We cant lose more WR. Percy from retirement. Lewis from practice squad. Hunter from nowhere. Holy ****.

Awesome news.

Amen. Having 2 kickers is an abomination.

Somewhat surprising thing to me from running those numbers was how so many of these QB's we pine over actually have a worse winning % than TT since the start of 2015.

Tannehill has been a starter now for 5 years. He has started 75 games. Bradford has started 73 games. Tyrod has started 25 games. I get that Tyrod has been in the league just as long. But its apples to oranges.

Unreal.

The Ravens game is a fair gripe. But We also have 4 losses this season where we score 25 or more pts.

As I said I would earlier, I ran a few more numbers on some players that I missed last night (mainly Winston, Bortles, Bradford, & Cutler). I ended cutting off the remaining players in the NFL at 20 games. Cutler started the fewest of the ones I did tonight (20GS). The reason I stopped at 20GS was b/c I was in the territory of where I was comparing QB's with 7-12 games started to QB's with 25-27 GS since 2015 and I felt any statistical significance would start to get lost due to the disparity in starts. In reality I shouldn't have included Dak either with only 11 GS but I thought it would be fun since he's such a hot topic currently. Anyway, the red are the additional QB's I did tonight. 1. Tom Brady - 5.7; .783 2. Dak - 4.6; .909 3. Tyrod - 3.33; .560 4. Russel Wilson - 2.94; .630 5. Rodgers - 2.82; .556 6. Brees - 2.71; .462 7. Cam - 2.63; .731 8. Alex Smith - 2.62; .692 9. Stafford - 2.48; .519 10. Cousins - 2.45; .556 11. Dalton - 2.39; .542 12. Carr - 2.25; .593 13. Palmer - 1.89; .615 14. Eli - 1.83; .519 15. Big Ben - 1.8; .619 16. Rivers - 1.73; .333 17. Mariota - 1.71; .375 18. Tannehill - 1.64; .481 19. M. Ryan - 1.62; .556 20. Winston - 1.59; .444 21. Bortles - 1.49; .259 22. Luck - 1.46; .412 23. Fitz - 1.39; .480 24. Bradford - 1.35; .500 25. Flacco - 1.15; .429 26. Cutler - 1.13; .350 Of the 4 additional QB's I did tonight, only Bradford was really any sort of outlier. His Total TD/Total Turnover Ratio is pretty low, yet he manages to come in at exactly a .500 winning % (which as we can see is a substantially better winning % than the QB's he surrounded by). I think a partial explanation for this outlier with Bradford is that in 3 of his first 4 wins this season (he has 5 wins as a starter this season) the Vikings managed to win despite the offense scoring less than 25 points in each of those wins. Because his TD to turnover ratio is low, meaning that he basically turns the ball over as frequently as he's involved in a TD, Bradford is an example of a QB who better have a really good defense if they're going to consistently win. I'll update this list at the end of the year.

Thats awesome man! Thanks for sharing and for serving. Of course Meeks cant even get his uniform on right. Lol 🙄

HAHA. That was great

Thank you for your work.

Ughhhh. I have more pep in my step than that. 😳😳😳

Haha. Im holding mine too.

😭😰😢😥😪😓😭😰😭

Heres to hoping its just a daily soreness thing. I woke up today with a neck cramp too. 😁

Lmao.

Well. There goes that. So frustrating. Little to say other than that.

I 100% respect your opinion but I dont think its as easy as plug in Andy Dalton on here and we average 35pts a game. Andy Dalton with a good RB and AJ Green doesnt even come close to that now in cincy. The highest scoring offense in Atlanta only scores 32pts a game. You plug in another QB in here the offense may still produce the same in terms of points, it just may be done differently. That, i dont know. Maybe shady gets less touches and we have more passing TDs. And then thay can also come at the risk of turning the ball over since Andy Dalton turns the ball over at a much higher clip. I just dont think its as simple as you propose. Theres a reason andy dalton's winning % is worse than TT's since 2015.

I feel our defense has been decent. I would probably like our offense to eventually evolve a bit more into on that takes a few more risks in the passing game. I think there's a definite tipping point in the ratio between TD's and turnovers that you shouldn't dip below in order to consistently win. There are also so many factors to consider (i.e., how good is the running game or how good is the defense - the better the defense, the more risk you can take and still succeed for example). From the numbers above, though it's just from 2015 - present, I think you ideally don't want your QB having a Total TD/Total Turnover ratio hovering around 1.75 or below, or else they're approaching territory where they turnover the ball almost as much as they produce a score. Then you add in other turnovers by other players at RB and WR, and your team more likely than not loses the turnover battle week in/week out. I'll add to the list of 22 QB's later, but the only reason I went down to 22 is b/c there was such a mish mash of QB's towards the bottom like Kaep, Gabbert, Osweiler, Keenum, Hoyer, Cutler, etc.

I feel that the total TD/total Turnover ratio has slight significance in the following way: look at Brees for example. Brees pretty much blew away most of the QB's on that list with total TD's (I think he had 69 total TD's - I'd have to go back and look). The guy literally puts up video game scoring stats every year. Despite all of that scoring that he's directly responsible for, the Saints continue to suck (generally). When you stop and think about it, it's pretty mind blowing that a QB like Brees isn't in the playoffs every single year, and yet he's not. What's part of the problem? It's a double-edged sword. Part of the problem is that the Saints defense is horrible. The Saints defense can't stop the opposing offense on a regular drive, so when you compound the defense's deficiency with a Turnover it inevitably leads to another score by the opposing team. It gets to the point with a team like the Saints (and very similarly, the Falcons, Chargers, Packers, etc), that no matter how much Brees scores, he can't overcome the defense's deficiency. It's almost impossible to not have a good amount of turnovers when you're throwing 40-50x a game (Brady was really the only exception), no matter how frequently you score. None of this is news really. I like seeing the numbers behind things.

So to elaborate, I went back and counted all the Games Started for each of the QB's above (since 2015 - with the exception of Dak obviously), and calculated their winning percentage over that stretch (in bold). As you can see, overall there is some slight correlation in that the upper portion of the group by and large has a winning % and the bottom portion has a losing %. There are outliers: Brees is an outlier in that his winning % is bad relative to his TD/Turnover ratio ranking; and Big Ben/Matt Ryan are outliers in that their winning percentage is good relative to their TD/Turnover ratios. Again, this list isn't ranking QB's in terms of how good they are overall. In no universe is TT better than Rodgers or Brees or Big Ben. The ratio simply looks at the QB position and assigns a number which puts into perspective how many total TD's the QB is directly responsible for relative to total turnovers (including fumbles). 1. Tom Brady - 5.7; .783 2. Dak - 4.6; .909 3. Tyrod - 3.33; .560 4. Russel Wilson - 2.94; .630 5. Rodgers - 2.82; .556 6. Brees - 2.71; .462 7. Cam - 2.63; .731 8. Alex Smith - 2.62; .692 9. Stafford - 2.48; .519 10. Cousins - 2.45; .556 11. Dalton - 2.39; .542 12. Carr - 2.25; .593 13. Palmer - 1.89; .615 14. Eli - 1.83; .519 15. Big Ben - 1.8; .619 16. Rivers - 1.73; .333 17. Mariota - 1.71; .375 18. Tannehill - 1.64; .481 19. M. Ryan - 1.62; .556 20. Luck - 1.46; .412 21. Fitz - 1.39; .480 22. Flacco - 1.15; .429

You are most likely correct. When i have time later Ill elaborate more on how i think the ratio may or may not be relevant.

HAHA. Thats not what that metric says at all. All it simply says is that for every 1.8 TD that Ben is involved in, hes also involved in 1 turnover. (Since last year at least) Actually i didnt fudge any numbers. And im not ranking QB by how GOOD they are. If i wanted to talk "scoring" i could simply repeat the following to you and shut you up: "QB of the 8th ranked scoring offense in the NFL". The end. Thats not what im doing here. I simply want to see how frequently a QB contributes to a TD compared to a turnover. Its a team game. If you turn the ball over you directly impact your probability of winning so it cant completely be ignored. That being said you also cant compare Brees to TT when it comes to sheer scoring. This metric isnt a zero sum scenario. At the end of the day a TD is a TD is a TD and a Turnover is what it is. When Tyrod runs it in should it not count? Panthers should trade cam then.

Another thing to with that grouping is that it dates back to last year (aside from Dak) thats why some QBs who you may logically think should be higher bc of this season are actually lower and vice versa.

HAHA. Seriously. It may be just as bad to be honest. No i got the idea from another thread where MajBobby was discussing TD/INT ratio. I just decided to include both rushing and passing TDs in addition to INT and fumbles lost. This is just one number and means very little by itself. Its not meant to rank QB's by how good they really are. Just looking at how often a QB is involved in a TD compared to how often they cough it up to the other team. Hard to say really. Its one of those things where numbers dont tell the whole story. Just having fun to see where certain QBs ranked in this manner. Theres definitely a slight correlation between the quality of QB at the top of that list compared to the quality at the bottom. Obviously with some outliers (like TT - hes obviously not at the same level as the QBs in that top 5)