All_Pro_Bills

I suspect these draft experts are content to sit in the skybox and make their picks without any consequences but I think it might be of value to use evaluations from guys like Mayock and Kiper as an input (but not the only input) in developing your draft board and validating the teams consensus opinion of specific players. For example, Nix decides to pick a particular player with the 2nd round pick next April and the consensus of draft 'experts' slot the guy as a 4th round selection rather than a 2nd. That should raise a 'red flag' and cause them to examine the reasoning behind the pick. They might still decide to pick that player but at least there's a conscious effort to think through the selection using some external and hopefully unbiased input.

You've succinctly described the business model for all of professional sports. They create the illusion of loyalty and attachment to the fans and the city. And most critically, they get people to believe that somehow being a fan of a championship team increases their own self-worth. As year after year goes by I find myself caring less and less...

In life you get what you pay for. Ralph will never, ever, pay the going rate for a top NFL caliber front office so we're constantly subjected to bargain basement management and at a competitive disadvantage with almost every team in the league before the players even step out onto the field. Me personally, I don't have any dislike of Buddy and Chan. They are what they are. Good, but not great, football people but from the results in over their heads right now.

Looking at the last 9 Super Bowl winners yields an interesting view. 2010 Green Bay - 10th in points scored and 2nd in points allowed. 2009 New Orleans - 1st in points scored and 20th in points allowed. 2008 Pittsburgh - 20th in points scored and 1st in points allowed. 2007 New York Giants - 14th in points scored and 17th in points allowed. 2006 Indianapolis - 2nd in points scored and 23rd in points allowed. 2005 Pittsburgh - 9th in points scored and 3rd in points allowed. 2004 New England - 4th in points scored and 2nd in points allowed. 2003 New England - 12th in points scored and 1st in points allowed. 2002 Tampa Bay - 18th in points scored and 1st in points allowed. 6 of the 9 SB champions had defenses ranked higher in points allowed (3 - 1st, 2 - 2nd, 1 - 3rd) vs. their offenses in points scored. To me this points to an element of truth in the saying 'defense wins championships'. Even looking at the losers all the teams, with the exception of Arizona in 2008 at 28th, had defenses in the top 10 in points allowed. Only New Orleans with the #1 scoring offense in 2009 won the SB.

IMO, relocating the franchise would increase the 'value' of the franchise but would it really be more profitable? Moving to a bigger market would surely increase revenues but there are also costs associated with such a move. The need for a new facility is one. In today's environment very few states and municipalities are going to be in a position to fund a new stadium. So in the most likely case private financing would be needed. So an owner relocating to, say LA, would need to put down something like $600 million for a new state-of-the-art facility. How many seasons would it take to recover that investment and turn cash flow positive? Right now the Bills franchise is running at a revenue rate that is below almost every other franchise in the league but the teams profit and positive cash flow are near the top. The is where I believe Mr. Wilson is a savvy and competent owner/investor. Why move and incur massive costs, legal expenses, political issues, when the amount of free cash flow your getting from the team each season now more than likely exceeds that of moving? In the long run moving might lead to higher profit and cash flow but it might take 8-10 seasons to reach break even and at 93 would you be interested in entertaining long range decisions? And I got to believe that the finance team are a bunch of smart people and they've run the numbers on a lot of these relocation scenarios over the years and reached the same conclusion.

Not sure which 'this' you are referring to but I'll try to answer your question as best I can. I think the Polian incident is pretty much common knowledge. Surely he wasn't fired for performance issues? I have 25+ years of professional experience observing and defining organizations so while I have no firsthand information on the working within OBD it seems obvious to me how the organization operates. It isn't that difficult to read between the lines and fill in the blanks to develop a plausible view. The finance people call all the shots and football decisions and on-field performance is secondary. Frankly, I think there is an element of dishonesty and lack a lot of integrity at work here. They are doing little to produce a winning quality product for their customers while building the illusion of constant attempts at progress all the while pocketing a tidy sum of loot. Only in a monopoly environment can such an organization survive.

Absolutely, Littman is most famous for having a disagreement (about budget and spending) with Bill Polian during the Super Bowl run. And Ralph fired Polian who went on to the GM job in Carolina (got them to the Super Bowl) and then to the Colts where he remains today. Littman and Overdorf have final say over all decisions made at OBD. Whatever the org chart might say reality is that Nix reports to them and they report to Mr. Wilson.

From a statistical view each season is an independent event so your chances of making the playoffs in year 1 would not impact your chances of making or not making the playoffs in years 2, etc. But after 12 years of falling into the 37.5% population of teams not making the playoffs it indicates one or more serious issues with some variable (or variables) impacting the outcome. Fundamentally you are doing something wrong and fail to correctly address the problem. Its as they say the defintion of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. What the 12 year drought points to is a lack of ability or desire to address the fundamental problems involved with missing the playoffs for 12 seasons.

2 teams? Sounds like wishful thinking considering that history has shown the area is not interested in supporting a single team. I suspect the league would be happly to locate one team in LA Metro and then evaluate for several seasons how it goes before plunking down a second franchise.

If the Bills pick a player like Dareus with their No. 1 pick for the next couple seasons we're going to be in good shape to compete. IMO, Dareus has performed as expected. With Williams out, the problem lies with the surrounding cast and what seems to be confusion about exactly what they're playing. Is it a 3-4, or a 4-3, or something else? I'm not clear. When you claim to be playing a 3-4 and your starting outside linebackers are Spencer Johnson and Chris Kelsay you're going to have issues. They've been competent defensive linemen at times but neither is your prototypical outside linebacker in a 3-4. Let's see how they address this in the offseason along with a problem at OT.

Yes, a bit of a head-scratcher in the decision department. A paradox of sorts. I'm not clear on whether or not Nix is a good GM but he's probably a good GM relative to the funds Ralph's bean counters budgeted for the GM's salary. Look around the league at the top front office talent and ask yourself if the Bills are ever going to be willing to pony-up the millions to pay the going rate? We've got a minor-league level front office budget mandated by ownership's finance guys (and signed off by the owner) and that's the way its been since day 1. It's not going to change. We're just going to have to rely on luck (hiring Polian and Levy on the cheap) and the concept of random variance (the blind squirrel theory) to produce a winner on the field sooner or later. Our front office is simply outmanned and outgunned by almost every other front office in the league and everybody in the football world knows that. On a more positive note I wish Bills fans everywhere a Happy Thanksgiving......

No state or local government is going to provide tax money for a stadium. They're all broke and can't even fund their own obligiations, like pensions and health insurance or putting enough police on the streets. Floating a 500 million bond issue to build a stadium for a private enterprise (an NFL team) is political suicide and has close to zero possiblity of passing. The days of public funded sports facilities is pretty much over. There will be a lot of resistance in putting an NFL franchise in Toronto, especially from the CFL and its political assoications. LA might be the destination but they've shown it already that the city cannot or has no interest in supporting an NFL team. It might be the countries 2nd largest 'media market' but so what? With large Asian and Latino populations that don't place football as a sport of interest there's probably more hardcore football fans in WNY than there are in the LA Metro area. My guess is the Chargers take the trip a few clicks up north which makes their local SD fans take a decent hike north but keeps the territory as it is now. And if Ralph wants to run the Bills as a business enterprise focused on maximizing profit without concern for putting a quality and winning product on the field I have no issue with that as long as they are not deceitful in pretending to the fan base that ownership actually puts winning as a priority.

You're on to something here. How many times do you find yourself yelling 'turn around' or 'play the ball' at the TV during the season? Too many times to count for me. It seems possible to play DB this way because I observe it while watching other teams play during the season. Even the street free agents NE played last night knew enough to turn around and look for the ball when it was in the air. I think its coaching or more specifically, a lack of it. It would be a good question for DC Edwards or HC Gailey.

A great synopsis of the situation but I don't believe for a minute that Nix has the 'green light' from ownership and the Detroit finance guys to go out there and spend the money needed to provide a significant upgrade to the talent pool via veteran free agency. Or the ability to retain 'high priced' veteran backups. Recall this team is running around $30+ million under the cap. That budget is a severe constraint on Nix and Gailey. I believe it will be 2013 when we'll see some relief here when teams are forced by the current collective bargaining agreement to spend at or near the cap. It's not my intent to absolve Nix from any resposibility for the talent situation, certainly he could and should have done better, but he's operating under funding contraints that the majority of other GM's do not have to deal with in performing their jobs.

And that's the Buffalo Bills. McKelvin (benched), Maybin (cut) and Spiller (limbo) are just about the equivalent of three forfeited high draft picks. Cannot compete with those kind of drafts. McKelvin drives me crazy. He's around the ball most of the time but his 'ball' skills are completely lacking. I watched a little of last nights NE/KC game where NE had a bunch of street free agents and practice squad guys playing DB. The seemed to do all right. Do you think its all talent, or maybe coaching? Do you think there's a possibility that if McKelvin was 'coached up' he might perform better? Maybin is a situational pass rusher and nothing more. Not much you can say here other than the Bills wasted this pick. Spiller should be getting more touches. I can't label him a bust yet. Why can't they apply his talent to the offense like SD/NO did with Sprolls and what NO did with Bush? IMO, the problem with the Bills is not with the players, its with the organization. The truth is, Ralph and his finance guys have never, and will never, spend the money needed to put a top level organization around the team that we see on the field. So bad management leads to bad draft picks, bad scouting, bad coaching, bad reputation, and bad performance. This is pretty much true in any business, not just sports. Last year I looked at the Bills drafts over the previous 10 years and it was pretty sad, so lousy or questionalble picks has been the norm rather than the exception over the life of the franchise. We're stuck with what we have until ownership passes to another party and then its a roll of the dice what happens to the team.

You're making the mistake of thinking rationally and assuming the decision makers have the desire to address the problem. They're $30 million under the cap this year and dumped vets like Evans and Hangartner because the finanace guys decided not to carry their contracts. I'll be surprised if they diviate from the budget contraints imposed on Nix and Gailey to address the talent gaps and depth problems that are obvious right now. I suspect we're going to continue to see the focus on the draft and picking over the scraps from other teams. My wish in the draft is a franchise OT, then LB or DB.

Depth is a big issue. When Ralphie's finance guys decided to waive Hangartner, trade Evans, etc., to save a few more bucks rather than invest in the on-field product I expected Karma woukd kick them in the backside. And now with our starting center out, along with 2 tackles the past few games, Kyle Williams, a thin secondary, we have to shuffle the lines again. Ownership decided to pocket $30+ million rather than spend near the cap and provide the coaching staff with some depth. What you see now is the result of that non-football decision process. Yesterday it looked like the Bills thought it was a 1:30 starting time. The defense might as well have spent the first series resting on the bench. And the line call on the Bills first offensive snap? Not blocking Ware just showed a lack of focus and preparation. You can hang this on the coaches but the players need to step up and accept accountability. There's no shame or dishonor with losing to a superior foe but the Cowboys are just marginally better than the Bills. You're professionals, prepare and perform like one. I remember hearing a quote from Mike Tomlin and it stuck with me 'No excuses, no explanations'.....

Bingo! We have a winner. Superior atheletes are born, not made. Genetics provide potential and all the hard work and nutrition brings out that potential.

His routine is getting old real fast. I've got Rex on 'ignore'.....

Newton says he's an 'entertainer and an icon'. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2011/02/cam-newton-views-himself-as-an-entertainer-and-icon/1 Red flag flying here. Sounds like the guy is full of himself and is going to be trouble. Do not waste the #3 pick in the draft on this potential head case....

I think we can all agree on one thing. The Bills did not make a maximum effort (not even close) to improve the O-line prior to the 2010 season. Let's hope they take a different approach this year.

True the Packers are 'publicly' owned but the shares cannot be traded and are priced at a constant rate. I recall seeing it was $200 per share whatever that comes out to in market capitalization I don't know. I always suspected the reason the NFL would not allow teams to become publicly traded entities is because that would require them to file SEC disclosure and reporting documents. So that would publicly reveal the true revenue and profit numbers for the team. From what I've seen revenue/profit figures for each team are forensically produced by various fiancial (like Forbes) and sports media but not provided directly by the league or the teams. Management/Ownership guards this information closely and certainly doesn't want the players union to know the true and exact financial state of each franchise, much less the public. If the public found out the true profit level of these teams you'd probably see extreme levels of pushback when it comes to publicly financing stadiums and sweetheart revenue deals. Taxpayers would know for sure how they're gettng ripped off by rich owners. Given these are 'private' companies or sole proprietor owned they are under no obligation to disclose their finances to anyone other than the IRS. And private tax filing statements, like you and I file, are not publicly disclosed by the agency. That said, I'd hate to see the NFL go the way of MLB. Every year you've got the Yankees and a couple other teams out trying to buy the world series in the offseason with the rest of the teams just along for the ride. How anyone can be a Pirates or Royals fan (plus several other teams) is something I can't figure.

If you have no major weaknesses than drafting the 'best available' player regardless of position is a good strategy. Some teams are in that position because of years of consistent and successful approaches to the draft and free agency. But the reality is the Bills have major holes in several critical areas that if left unaddressed will result in absolutely no improvement in wins vs. losses in 2011 and beyond. Maybe Peterson or Green are the 'best available' players at #3 when their turn to pick comes. But if you're surrending 200+ yards rushing on the ground in 1/2 of your games does it really make any logical sense to not address that area with an impact player at the top of round 1?

I'd like to take the optimistic view and believe that maybe the guy surprises us and turns it around. This team could really use an unexpected positive surprise for once. But it doesn't seem like the most likely outcome here. I have to admit I don't follow college football that closely and I'm no expert on draft prospects. Not sure if anyone else had similar thoughts, but when the Bills drafted Maybin and I heard that Lavar Arington was one of his close 'advisors' it raised a red flag to me. If I recall, Arington had a lot of 'potential' too but never played to that potential. Rather than buy into the scheme or philosophy of the coaching staff he choose to do a lot of freelancing which put him on the outs with several teams. Maybe the 'birds of a feather' this guy should be avoided theory at work here? Too bad the Bills couldn't have done a little creative thinking prior to the selection. And if Dick really insisted on the pick then you've got to question the value of an Ivy League education. The best approach may be, lesson learned, cut your loses and move on here.

+1 Given the Bills plight they need to draft performance over potential. I'd rather have a guy that has a high probability of being very good based on observed on the field performance than a player who MIGHT be great based on somebody's subjective opinion. And in the Bills case a subjective opinion that has been wrong way too often this decade. Use the later rounds if you want to draft project players or reach for potential.