All_Pro_Bills

Imagine what could have been if the Browns selected Chubb with the 4th in the 1st. Chubb at one end, Garrett at the other. But a thanks to them for not doing it. The Broncos bailed on the trade deal with the Bills and we still got Allen and Edmunds too which wouldn't have happened with the Denver deal which was both 1st's.

You know you're old if you and your friends went outside and played a game of pick up football or baseball without parental supervision. We came home when it was dinner time. Kids now under 12 have spent maybe 15 minutes of their life without their parents.

NE has owned the Bills by creating and exploiting match ups for so long I can't remember. I give the Beane/McDermott regime high marks for making the moves to address this long standing problem. Edmunds and other players they've added look to have the physical and mental make up to finally level the playing field.

I also don't see a lot of similarities between Allen and EJ. But what I do see is a lot of skepticism among Bills fans. That's understandable after many years of failure and frustration with this team, especially at the QB spot. I'm skeptical too. But the idea that our team made the correct move by picking Allen and he will resolve the long standing problem at QB is just unbelievable to many. To me it just feels different this time, I'm not QB expert, and until I see evidence to the contrary I trust the team's front office and coaches made the right choice and Allen will be an outstanding QB for many years. Sure I might be wrong but at this point in time there's not enough evidence to prove either case.

Sometimes it can be mechanics, other times it can be bad hand to eye coordination, or it could be mental agility. But if Allen is 'inaccurate' and this is something that is rarely correctable then why do the Bills coaches/front office think they can fix it? After all, they did hundreds of hours of work and analysis including face-to-face time with all the QB's and could have picked Rosen but they still went with Allen.

Apparently the voters approved this as part of a $220 bond issue. I'm sure its a real nice stadium. I also suspect they have failed to understand some basic concepts of finance and debt servicing in particular. The problem is that its unlikely this facility will generate enough revenue to service the $70M debt and the maintenance costs. So where is the money coming from to pay off the bond holders? A hefty local tax increase will be needed or the municipality will look to some state or federal bailout, grant, or 'loan' to meet their obligations. Unfortunately this is happening everywhere at the federal, state, and local level.

I expect Edmunds will be able to cover a lot of ground in both run and pass situations. He's the kind of player the Bills have been lacking for a generation to help defend what the Patriots do on offense which is to create and identify match-up advantages and execute against them. With Tremaine in the middle I expect those mis-matches on pass plays in the zones over the middle will no longer be an issue for the Bills. This along with generating some blitz pressure up the middle and covering a lot of ground sideline to sideline against the run. I'm excited to see how this defense performs and maybe they're one athletic and fast OLB away in next year's draft from completing the plan.

I'm not expecting a repeat to 2017 this coming season because there are still some big holes in the line up and a series of unbelievable circumstances that won't repeat led to the Bills breaking the playoff drought. My expectations are more about 2019, assuming the QB problems have been resolved, more than they are about 2018. This year I think the Bills will struggle with an overall tough schedule that is road heavy early. As the free agents and rookie class settle into the defense, it should get better as the season progresses and keep them in most games. But the combination of a new QB, a new offensive system, and some issues on the offensive line and WR will limit the effectiveness of the offense. Maybe they finish between 6 to 8 wins. Whether its McCarron or Allen (I'm expected it to be Allen) at QB 2019 is a different story with the team set at QB, another good draft, and something like $50M in cap space to tap into the free agent market. With those draft choices and cap money the team is able to address its weaknesses. The roster will be solid top to bottom, the defense will be top 5, and the offense top 10 with the team going 11-5 to capture the AFC East title.

I posted this line of reasoning elsewhere on the topic of Allen but nobody has addressed my question. Everybody is aware of analytics and statistics but Beane/McDermott choose Allen over the safer, more, polished Rosen. Given the numbers why would they do that? Are they collectively stupid? Can't they read charts and reports? Or perhaps more likely they have a better perspective and firsthand information that somebody just looking at the numbers doesn't have. Pro or con I suspect nobody here has any perspective better than the Bills GM, coaching, and scouting staffs. I don't see the comparison to Newton either but I'm looking at it from a different perspective, behavior and attitude. I guarantee that Allen with not do anything like the childish Superman routine when making a play or punk out on going for the ball if he fumbles in the Super Bowl.

Everybody has access to a lot more data and what might be called 'information' but the majority, including myself, have never had any actual face-to-face human contact with any of the QB prospects much less had the opportunity to interview and work them out from a professional perspective. I think it was Bill Parcells that said these 'draft experts' are not talent evaluators but rather information gatherers. Also, I get a laugh whenever somebody states they've watched all the game film and video on Allen. I think back to when Galisano owned the Sabres and he decided to cut expenses and fired their European scouting staff, replacing them with video scouting. For some reason that was a complete flop.

The distinctions between professional sports vs. college. Figures I've seen indicate USC spends around $31M and UCLA spends around $27M. Professional sports teams like the Bills are billion dollar operations. And we finally have a combination of a GM/HC with a vision and a strategy that know what they are doing with an owner that is willing to spend and commit whatever resources necessary to produce a winner.

Absolutely agree with the OP. To say Allen needs to be developed is correct but look at what kind of development he's received to this point relative to the other 3 tops QB's in this years draft. How much do you think Wyoming spends on their football program compared to Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA? What is the quality of staff and facilities for training and development? It's like Rocky V where Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield have been training with Ivan Drago at his elite training and sports facility and Allen has been working with Rocky picking up logs and rocks in cold and desolate Siberia. Who do you expect to be better prepared? Now he's on the Bills roster where the training, learning, and development provided is going to be at professional levels. So now talent, intelligence, drive, and effort will take over. I'm going to trust the judgement of our GM/HC at this point as they had the stones to reach for great and not settle for good..

I get that some have watched Josh Allen's games and came away less than impressed. He's a work in progress and how that all develops isn't clear right now. We can debate the pick but any definitive conclusion one way or the other right now is just speculation. It comes down to faith in the people making the decision. What people are really questioning is the decision of the Bills management team. The basic premise is we can never get anything right and our team is a loser and our choices are always losers. But if Allen's so obviously a bust then what was the thought process behind the Beane/McDermott decision to pick Allen over Rosen? This in the context of Rosen being the obvious superior choice to most posters? Are the Bills GM and HC stupid or incompetent? Did they miss something obvious? They have 1st hand knowledge of each QB through interviews, workouts, combine participation, talking to people that know them, doing other kinds of direct evaluations and investigating. But somebody watching a couple game films who has no direct knowledge of any of the QB's is able to reach a better decision then they can? Is that possible? Is it that simple? Did they waste 100's of hours of their time evaluating the QB's skills and potential when they could have just watched TV and some videos for a couple hours? Detractors are saying they don't trust the judgement of our GM/HC and think they made the wrong decision. Maybe they did and time will tell the story. But for me, I'm wiling to give them some slack here because what I've seen so far is pointing things in the right direction. The team made the playoff given some inconceivable series of events but they still broke the streak. They're putting a system in place with an eye toward the long term view. They're changing the culture and moving away from the loser mentality. I can go out in public once again with my Bills gear on and not have somebody make negative or apologetic comments. I have faith in the choice and I believe Allen is going to surprise to the upside.

NE wanted Mayfield? Yeah, I want a lot of stuff too but neither of us are getting what we want. For this to have any chance of happening I'd expect there would need to have been a conditional deal in place between the Giants and Patriots. If Mayfield is there at 2 then the Giants would trade the pick to the Patriots for some combination of picks/players. If he's not there at 2 then the deal is off. Per Gettleman there was no deal with anyone so either he is lying or the agent's story is a product of his imagination. For example, Beane said he had a conditional deal in place with the Broncos but when Chubb fell to #5 Elway pulled out of the arrangement. Then Beane made the deal with Tampa Bay. NE/NYG had no such arrangement. So logically the story is bogus and to add to my amusement the Giants selected the QB everybody said NE was in love with so I patently await the day Brady is gone and they go down in flames at 2-14 some season in the near future.

Who is Jamal Adams? Seriously, the guy hasn't earned the right to trash talk anybody yet.

Exactly. the market sets the price, the chart is just a guideline to relative value. It seems that a lot of these draft experts don't do a lot of dynamic or situational thinking. Like how much is a glass of water worth to a thirsty man in the desert vs. somebody on the Titanic?

Absolutely perfect. IMO you just summarized a decade of debate on the franchise QB topic in a couple paragraphs to produce what should be the closing argument on the topic. Well done!

My take on the OP is they're taking a pessimistic view of Allen and Edmunds while being overly generous with evaluating of three other players. Wynn, Payne, and Moore. Wynn is such a 'Stud' that the Patriots traded for Trent Brown (OT) with the 49ers during the draft. What message does that send about their confidence level or your evaluation? I'd say they're hedging their bets and Wynn's no sure thing to start. Payne and Moore are good players but from past performance and athletic ability neither are what I would characterize as 'elite potential'. But there's no guarantee I'm right either and maybe they develop to that level at some point in their careers. I think the Bills look at Allen and Edmunds and see two physically gifted and intelligent players that have the personalities, desire, and potential to become elite and dominant players. These guys have the highest ceilings and great potential maximized to its highest level of performance cannot be beaten. I think Phillips can be a great player too. Those are the types of players that build the core of your roster. It's up to the coaches and management to bring out that potential. At the moment I have faith they can.

This is just the opinion of a 'draft expert' and his assessment of the team's picks is more or less determined by looking at who they picked against his personal rankings. You pick a lot of players he ranked high you get a high grade. You pick players he ranked low you get a low grade. Take it for what its worth. But I recall many times the Bills drafts have been rated poor and there'd be lots of protests about 'what do they know'. And looking back most of those drafts were very bad. Last year most said the Bills did well and I think that was correct looking back at last season. So for me personally, if Mel gives us a 'A' for once in my lifetime I'll take it and be happy. Top this off with the Sabres actually winning the draft lottery and we could look back on this weekend as the turning point for Buffalo's major league franchises.

Very true. There's some anti-Bills bias in the media. By all indications Allen has the physical traits and intelligence to succeed. No doubt there's work to be done but the potential is sky-high and if reached this pick will transform the Bills into a dominant franchise for a decade. My take is wait and see until they get a couple rookie and mini-camp sessions complete when we'll get some pro level looks. Will he excell, struggle, look average?

As a Bills fan I don't really care what QB they pick. I'm sure the pundits will rave all night about whomever it is but if they didn't trade Garoppolo for a 2nd they'd be set. Major strategic blunder. I rest easy knowing that no matter who it is it's a 100% certainty it will be a downgrade from Brady. A once in a life time player. And the big edge they've had at QB for all these years will soon be gone. IMO, the odds of them stepping in crap again and lucking out with another late round steal like TB are slim to none.

Absolutely. EJ was aiming or guiding the ball like a guy learning to play darts. And given his resume I never understood why the Bills would ever consider him worthy of a 1st round selection. I get the Allen pick. Allen throws with velocity. Some like Allen, some don't, some would rather have Rosen. But the guy has talent and a lot more potential to be very good. The question is can he transform that potential to results on the field?

I think basic accuracy is a matter of hand-eye coordination. Pitching, archery, target shooting, billiards, horseshoes, quarterbacking. I also think its a genetic trait and not something that can be learned. Either you have it or you don't. But as you say there are other variables. Play selection, degree of difficultly, pressure/no pressure situations, quality of receivers, etc. Things that can be managed or controlled to some degree by play selection, coaching, the surrounding cast of players. In those situations maybe Allen is highly accurate or maybe he's not but we'll soon find out.

Opinions run the spectrum here and the only thing that will resolve the debate is going to be actual playing time under center in NFL game situations. We may or may not see a lot of that with Allen this year. But if Bills fans are upset at the pick what about Browns and Jets? Their GM's also passed on the "most NFL ready QB" at picks 1 and 3. All three front offices and coaching staffs put in countless hours of effort checking these guys inside-out. So what do fans see that 3 teams of professionals do not? Personally I would have taken Rosen too but my knowledge is limited to him passing the eye test. I watched a couple UCLA games and saw some highlight films. Never spoke to him, or his coaches, or anyone with direct knowledge about the guy.

I was thinking the same thing. If NE picks Rudolph everybody is go say they did a great job and made a smart pick, probably getting the best pocket passer available in the draft. If the Bills pick him its going to be a reach. I haven't heard a thing in the football world about what a strategic blunder it was to trade Garoppolo to SF for a 2nd rounder. They idea I guess was the pick would be at the top of the round and it would be like a late 1st rounder. The plan backfired when he started and ran up 5 straight wins to close out the season. They had their successor and outsmarted themselves. Whoever the Patriots pick I rest easy knowing its 100% certain that he's not going to be as productive as Brady and that team's dominance over the Bills because of the huge advantage behind center is no longer the big edge. As for the Bills, the problem is you just don't know how all these guys are going to translate to the NFL. I trust Beane knows his stuff, has done his homework, and is prepared for whatever scenarios unfold and will make the best pick given the circumstances. I'm no expert at college QB's and I've seen all these guys play a game or two and in my view they all have flaws. Its a question of what they are, can you live with them, and are they correctable?