All_Pro_Bills

Because China's economy is already cracking, there is no other market that will be willing to take the US bound products, dumping won't be tolerated, an outcome where millions of workers will be unemployed will be threat to the regime. I don't see the world answering the call from Xi to join China against America. Selling treasuries is more a mechanism of funding the defense of their currency than a retaliation. And even if it is, when push comes to shove Treasury or the Fed will enter the market and buy up the paper. The dollar is still the reserve and trade settlement currency and the advantages of that are a strong weapon. The danger is this provokes an attack on Tiawan. And creates a recession here. But it's not like there won't ever be another recession in forever. An obvious problem is the lead time for bringing back industries. And the costs. But what's the cost of doing nothing and letting China take control of the world and impose CCP like control over it? Isn't saving democracy worth some sacrifice and temporary inconvenience? And if it becomes a hot war waiting until their military capabilities exceed ours would be foolish.

China didn't attack? Tell that to Taiwan, Vietnam, and Phillipines when it comes to aggressive actions in the South China Sea. And sure US citizens benefited from trade with China. But that benefit was not distributed equally. Ask workers that lost their jobs, businesses that went under, and residents of thousands of small towns and cities turned into ghost towns. Most of the benefit went to US based multinational corporations, the government that found an eager buyer for Treasury paper, and political and social elites paid millions to advocate for China through a program the CCP calls elite capture. One danger is decades of offshoring industrial capacity has left industries essential to national defense, like ship building a critical weakness. There won't be any great mobilization of civilian industry to convert to defense production like during WW2 because there’s not much left to convert. Our exposure is frightening. But most American have no stomach for any battle. They're perfectly happy buying over-priced iPhones, cheap consumer goods, and low quality, throw away, item like appliances with short service lives. When China gets powerful enough to overtake the US all this will go away in an instant. The administration has decided to take them on now, on our terms, rather than wait for the fight later on their terms. And make no mistake they intend to dominate the world. Under their political and social system. Curious how the posters crying about protecting democracy are so eager to side with China to give ours away.

What's funny is these fringe nutjobs might actually believe they're some kind of heroes rather than simply losers damaging some other liberals electric car.

Those Islamic sharia law countries like the UK and France don't like you making fun of people.

He ran a 4.5 40 and benched 225 24 times at this year's draft combine.

25+ years of US administrations and corporations supporting and enabling China's growth makes it difficult to summarize in a few sentences the threat all of that has created for America. But what is clear is our leadership has ignored those threats which leaves us vulnerable. It looks like the strategy is to take them on now, on our terms, rather than put it off to the point its on their terms. At the same time this threatens what some call globalist interests. What I simply say are multinational corporations. Simply, Trump needs to dismantle their world order which has supported China's growth. I believe Trump will be successful but not without a lot of pain. If you're paying attention you will know that China's economy is not is such great shape. I wouldn't be so sure hundreds of millions of suddenly unemployed and exploited Chinese workers pissed off at the CCP is going to be so easy to handle.

Agree or disagree with the tariffs, Trump clearly telegraphed his intentions and provided investors with enough lead time to act. So anybody licking their wounds from losing part of their 401/IRA had ample warning to adjust their investments by selling and parking the proceeds in cash to ride it out or by adding some downside insurance, to hedge, to mitigate the risk of loss. If they did nothing it's their own fault they lost money. That said, I expect nobody wants to hear that message.

I've read some opinion pieces that suggest the tariffs are about dismantling the current global order, which now favors China more than the US, on our terms rather than theirs. What I don't get about the strategy is then why involve the rest of our trading partners in the dispute? Here's a link to one: https://blog.exitgroup.us/p/deglobalization-is-over-determined

It doesn't matter what I want and frankly I don't see how you're response has anything to do with my comments about China and the Fed. Are you confused or something? You go off on some MAGA rant that is unrelated to, well anything. Exactly what economic "theory" are you proposing we follow? After some inspection of the situation, my conclusion is these tariffs are misplaced anger. China and other developing countries that ship "cheap" goods into the US are not the villain. Its the doings of American and multi-national corporations that moved their operations out of the US in pursuit of cheap labor, lax environmental standard, and favorable business rules and regulations. Trump should be targeted CEO's of those corporations, not leaders of our trading partners. And instead of looking to extend his corporate tax breaks they should be threatening them with windfall profits taxes if they don't get on board with moving some operations back to the US. Using Apple as an example, they sell an iPhone that costs about $25 to manufacture and charge customers $1,000. Tax their profits at 90%, let their stock crash, and investors revolt, and see the CEO's big pay package crash in flames. That will produce the desired actions and decisions in a couple minutes.

Ask your banker buddy if he expects the Fed to step into the market and initiate QE operations if they believe the Treasury market, and more importantly the consortium of Treasury dealer banks, are put at genuine risk. Of course they will which is why I don't worry to much about this other than the potential for dollar devaluation and possible inflation as a consequence of creating all that liquidity. But outright default or market failure? Not likely. What China is, and has been doing, is buying large tonnage of gold. Around 500+ tonnes per some sources. Recently, allowing insurance companies to allocate reserves to physical. In all that I think they're sending a message that the majority of market participants are ignoring or missing.

I understood it to be forced liquidation of highly leveraged Treasury bond positions of some large hedge funds rather than China selling. And if it proves to be the case, what did they buy with the proceeds? Selling treasuries for dollars and selling the dollars for what? Or just holding the dollars? Maybe Gold from today's early morning action. Or maybe rumors of China experiencing a dollar liquidity problem are correct? And the selling has more to do with stress in China's markets than responding to Trump? Lots to think about and understand.

It was a good time to buy. The problem for a lot of posters here is they couldn't see that because they're so emotionally invested in wanting to see Trump fail that they were blind to it. Rather they were hoping and praying for more carnage. Today's pause was greeted with the expected hostility. Foiling their dream of the demise of Trump or perhaps delaying it? We shall see.

I hear some conflicting points of view on that. One such argument is the tariffs are counterproductive because the lead time to bring up a factory is long and immediate tariffs are not an effective incentive. Just punishing buyers of foriegn goods. Another is the 90 day pause dropping the rate to 10% across the board is a good faith adjustment to acknowledge the effort and commitment of the other parties to work towards a resolution. All apparently except China.

I think it's premature to draw any final conclusions on manufacturing at this point. The statements today about "good news" was attributed to progress in conversations with trading partners which resulted in a 90 day pause in the high tariffs with instead a 10% rate. For now the markets like it.

If push comes to shove, the expectation is the Fed will come to the rescue with QE to buy up all the Treasury paper required to settle things down and inject a lot of liquidity into the market. A story circulating is China is a big seller of treasuries, using their big stash of bonds as a countermeasure in the tariff battle and another being there are some very large super-leveraged hedge funds that are "trapped" in the market with large unrealized losses that will render them insolvent.

Most of the financial and economic "experts" here are just pissing their pants over stock market losses and are assessing the situation from a state of sheer emotional panic. Like anyone that thinks China is trustworthy. How comical is that? Go ahead and make a deal with them and you'll wake up in an alley with your wallet missing and your pants pulled down to your ankles. Is there anyone that believes the current path of racking up 3 or 4 trillion dollar government debts every year forever, running huge trade deficits, and strip-mining the country of productive capacity is a path to long term prosperity? Its either fix it now with relatively little pain or face certain disaster later.

So far all I've heard from the DOGE effort and the SSA is they're purging the active files of dead people and examining the database to identify fraudulent applications for benefits and payments then taking the appropriate action to remove them too.

Everybody can stop crying about the markets for now as it sounds like a deal or negotiations, with Europe and a possible tariff pause, is on the table. Or maybe not?

Looking at the big picture this might mean the end of globalization. Rich hedge fund billionaires and multi-national corporations strip-mining cities and towns across America. And while the trend helped almost everybody in some way it doesn't help everyone equally. Such as a guy that lost his job at a small company supplying auto manufacturers in the US with parts vs. a hedge fund guy making billion dollar deals doing no real work and creating nothing of value armed with cheap money thanks to lose monetary policy and unlimited government spending. I look at it this way. Small town America and small businesses got decimated by globalization and offshoring work. Not to mention millions of IT jobs to India, Ireland, and elsewhere, call center jobs to the Caribbean, and other occupations. All so big multinational corporations can report an additional penny to their quarterly earnings and bi-coaster smug liberals can boost about their 401K balances and the superiority over others. Few to none have any sympathies for those rubes and "MAGA" types that lost their livelihoods. And now its the turn of the people that benefited the most to take their lumps. People crying about their life savings when others don't have any life savings because of globalization. Especially the baby boomers that have lived a very comfortable lifestyle for their entire lives without much hardship. Welcome to the party. While it hurts me personally I suspect much less than others because of all the crying here.

The screen has the DOW at 25,309 so that's probably 5 or 6 years ago. But the point is still relevant. Most people are just speculating on price movements based on sentiment and monetary & interest rate policy and couldn't articulate the rationale for investing in any particular stock except that the share price is going up. Investing through FOMO, fear of missing out.

Word is Tiawan, Vietnam, and Thailand have agreed to negotiations to end 2-way tarrifs.

I've worked all my life too. But maybe I'm just a better and more informed investor, that's very well prepared for what's happening this week, than most of the people complaining about losing a few percentage points on their portfolio? And while they're panic selling and getting all emotional I'm monitoring my buy list of great qulaity companies for either entry points or adding to current positions at discounted prices. This quote I saw nails the attitude of the "outraged" people. "Market participants have been falsely conditioned by our monetary and fiscal policy in this country to always expect comfort and never expect interruptions from the market moving higher, or the quality of life status quo that we believe we are entitled to here in the United States to suffer". Not that I'm in the circle of trust on any trade talks in progress, but don't be surprised if there's some positive announcement or news after the bell today. Perhaps about the administration being close to an agreement with Canada and Mexico that will result in a decent rally on Monday's open. And whether its this weekend or the next or a month from now that's how this is going to work.

I'm not sure what you mean by both "embrace" and "Maoism". What traits of the CCP have been adopted?

I think most people in a state of panic about the tariffs are more worried about losses to their multi-million dollar stock portfolio than they are about the economy.

Then maybe she's really a democrat? Because the majority of them are the definition of ugly unless you're into lesbians with crew cuts dressed in flannel shirts and combat boots.