Setrett

Here's one man's estimate. It's not rigorous, but it will provide a sense of the odds. The chance the Bills beat the Broncos is approximately 15%. The chance they beat the Packers at home is maybe 20%. The chance they beat Oakland is 90% given they've only won about 10% of their games. The Bills have never beaten Brady in Gillette and have only won about 10% of their meetings total. Let's say NE sitting starters and their homefield advantage is a wash. The chance of winning all four is the product of the individual probabilities or about 1/4 of one percent. In other words, the chances are about 1 in 400.

They did indeed say that the kid from Buffalo, New York was representing the Philadelphia Eagles. I don't know whether to be upset at the slight or happy that his parents steered him away from constant Buffalo heartbreak. Though, he probably just moved from Philly or something.

For all of the reasons already noted, I think it quite likely that Buffalo will not land one of the remaining "big-name" coaches. While hiring a big-name coach would increase the probability of winning football games A) it doesn't guarantee it and B) a big name coach isn't the only way to win football games. There are plenty of ways to skin a cat and a scarcity of head coaching positions available in the NFL. Everyone and their father would kill to be the head coach of an NFL team. We shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking nobody wants this job. Plenty of people would love to be the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. It just so happens that many of those people come without proven track records. Whomever we choose as the next coach will be a risky prospect. Either we take a less than ideal veteran (e.g. Martz, Fox, etc.) or we roll the dice on a young, hungry, up-and-comer with something to prove. But just because our choice comes with risk does not mean that we will be forever doomed to the catastrophic coaching graveyard. Their are many roads which lead to Rome.

I've asked myself that same question many times. All I can figure is that it's not a completely rational decision. I grew up as a kid following the Bills and I have ever since. I know the Bills history more than that of any of team. I've seen almost all of their games in the last decade and keep a detailed collection of all "highlights" from them for posterity. I wouldn't know how to switch to another team. I know I certainly wouldn't feel the same level of passion. So maybe one reason is that I don't feel as if I have any other option. On a deeper level, though, I believe that being a real fan means taking the good with the bad. I mean, think about how much meaning a Bills playoff apperance would have given this decade of ineptitude. There is no light without dark and it is seasons like these that give the good ones their meaning. I also tend to believe that we fans have a small part to play in helping the team along. I was actually in favor of walking out after the first quarter of last year's home game against New England to prompt Jauron's firing. If most of the fans had done that, we would have hit the team where it really hurt and changed the course of the organization. The walkout never came to pass, but I feel it would have had an even smaller chance of happening if I hadn't been on the message board advocating for action. The final reason is that regardless of how the team is doing, it's nice to go down to my city's Bills bar every Sunday, have some food and share an experience with other Bills fans. It's not always fun, but I suppose it beats having no sports community at all.

Dick Jauron say it' his fault and he needs to get the team better prepared. Trent Edwards says he needs to look at tape and see what he can improve. Fine. If no one wants to thrown anyone else under the bus, fire the whole lot of them. They keep admitting they're not gettin the job done. Case closed! Here's a idea. What if every Bills fan put $3 in an envelope c/o Bill Cowher? I'm sure there's enough of us to afford the coach even without Ralph Wilson.

Great!! How do I get on the email list??

This message is intended for Baltimore-area Bills fans. As I'm sure many of you know, our home for Bills games for the past few years, Fletchers, was closed last Sunday. The word I've received from an employee there is that the new owners have sold the bar back to the old owners and Fletchers will be closed for renovations starting October 1. This means that we will probably need a new home on Sundays at least for a few weeks. First, does anyone have any more information about what's happening at Fletchers than I do? Second, I wanted to garner suggestions for a new home for the season so we can get back together. Does anyone have any suggestions? We had about 11 at The Green Turtle on Sunday. - The Guy with the Tie

Oh, don't get me wrong. I think Dick Jauron needs to be fired. I'm just trying to figure out why the players to man support him if he's really the problem. Maybe they're scared of getting their asses chewed out every once in a while.

Deciding not to watch the Bills next year because of Dick Jauron assumes that he is the problem with the team. However, the players, some of whom seemed genuinely upset by losing, insist it's not the coach's fault. I have not heard a single Bills player who's given anything less than whole-hearted support for Dick Jauron. What are we to believe? Are our players playing poorly in a good system, playing well in a poor system, or playing poorly in a poor system? Donte Whitner suggests that it's the players who are underacheiving. I've yet to see a good answer to this question, but it means a lot regarding how we view next year.

Jauron admits to mistakes because he doesn't want the players to have to take all the heat. I've been calling for Jauron to lose his job because of his full body of work, but I don't believe the decision to throw in that position was stupid. If the Jets are expecting run, a pass could secure a first down with high probability and lock away the game in one play. The alternative is possibly punting the ball back to Farve with a minute to go. Does anyone remember the end of the first half? JP held on to the ball too long and didn't play safe football. He had more than enough time and made a critical blunder. The outcome was incredibly unlikely and you can't blame Jauron for Losman's screw-up. A coach has to trust his QB to make simple plays. It was JP's failure, not Jauron's. And for all the flak that Turk's been getting lately, I'm surprised more people aren't applauding taking the decision-making process out of his hands.

Wow, it's about time somebody said that. I'm in the same boat as you. Aside from vague images of good teams back when I was a kid too young to appreciate the game, all I've know from the Buffalo Bills is failure. I mentioned this in an earlier post, but I'll say it again. The past few seasons of heartbreaks have caused me to start hating football. I can't talk to my friends about the game without getting upset. There are some Sundays where I come home in such a horrible mood that it ruins the early part of the week for me. I am not willing to tolerate this forever. There is a point where I will break and not come back. Ralph Wilson had better get that point and quick. I'm still in favor of the boycott.

This thread has articulated some very reasonable arguments on both sides, i.e. that Toronto is necessary long-term to keep the team profitable in Buffalo versus Ralph Wilson is doing this just to make himself more money. Is there anyone out there with business or financial experience who can quantify for us the amount of profit the Bills would need to make to be kept in Buffalo with high probability ( > 80% ? ) after Ralph passes? This would have to be compared with relocation costs, stadium expenses, new tax structure, long-term economic viability, etc. in places like Toronto and LA. Once we have a ballpark number we can look at the amount of profit Ralph Wilson generates without the Toronto deal. If it's greater than the amount needed to keep the team in place, then Ralph should spend money on players and coaches up to that limit to make the team more competitive. Otherwise, he could be fairly criticized as being a crass capitalist acting only enhance his family's personal wealth. But without having access to some hard numbers, this seems like a tough question to resolve just by throwing arguments back and forth.

For those of you who didn't see this on Inside the NFL, Chris Collinsworth made the following statement: CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: In the history of the National Football League there has never been anything dumber than the Buffalo Bills selling out their home game against the Miami Dolphins to go play in Toronto and take the cash. Season over. Thank you very much, Buffalo Bills, don't know what to say... PHIL SIMMS: [interrupting] In history? In history!? CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: In the history of the NFL! WARREN SAPP: Tell us how you really feel! CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: [undeterred] The dumbest thing that's ever happened. PHIL SIMMS: You feel better? CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: I hope they spend the money wisely and get a nice car. I don't know what they're going to do. It's stupid.

I do believe the Bills want to get better, but it is obvious to anyone with a pulse that they are not. I do not believe they are heading in the right direction. They've lost 6 of 7 games. How can you possibly argue that in a year they were supposed to make the playoffs that they are headed in the right direction? There have been some good draft picks (Lynch, Edwards, McKelvin) and some bad ones (Losman, McCargo, Hardy). The players do seem to be working hard. Nobody is questioning that. But you claim that the Bills are trying to get better. Our argument has been that Ralph Wilson is NOT doing everything in his power to make this team better. Your players can have all the heart in the world, but without the right talent and the right direction a team will not rack up wins in a very competitive league. Here's immediately what Wilson could do to make the team better: - Bring in a REAL football GM to organize the team - Spend more money on a high-caliber coaching staff - Invest more in college scouting so that draft picks will become reliable assets - Lobby the NFL to include coaches and scouts under the salary cap If Wilson really and truly cared about doing something good for Buffalo right now, he would invest more of his money in fixing the institutional problems that keep this team out of the playoffs. If he has the ability to do this and chooses not to, then we fans must create the incentive for him to do so.

The last three posters just don't seem to grasp the root of the problem. Teams that fail to make the playoffs for nearly a decade (e.g. Buffalo, Detroit) in a league designed for parity suggest some kind of systematic failure. We're not crapping on the players since they haven't been here for the entire time; they just happen to be a part of this latest collapse. The problem is ownership and management. Unless something FUNDAMENTALLY changes, it's hard to see this team becoming a winner any time soon. If you can suggest a bigger motivational kick in the a$$ than a walkout, I'd love to hear it. Also, we're fans, not professional scouts or sports managers. We are allowed to sing the praises when teams are winning and call for change when they're losing. Ultimately, I hold the judgment of ownership and management to a higher standard than I do the judgment of fans. It's not unreasonable to expect them to be better and more forward-thinking than we are. After all, it's their job, not ours.