Hapless Bills Fan

That first sentence has a lot of truth to it. But who are those 3-4 teams for whom Mariota is an upgrade at starter? Pittsburgh having a strong run game is News to most, I think. Pittsburgh traditionally had a strong run game, but it was AWOL in 2020 where they were 28th in attempts and 32nd in yards. 2021 only marginally better, 28th in attempts and 29th in yards.

Historically, I've been beating the drum myself that we need more top-quality investment on offense - pointing out that we only have 1 starting first round pick on offense (2 if you count what we traded for Diggs), but 7 on defense (counting both the 4 we drafted and the 3 we signed as FA) Factually, I don't understand how you contend that the Chiefs have "learned to live with what they have on defense and thrown everything at the offense". First of all, they traded for Melvin Ingram mid-season. They paid a pittance ($600k and a 6th round pick) and he definitely improved their D. The point is, they were willing to look at their D and say "you know what, it's not good enough, we need to make a move", not "we got to learn to live with what we have". That is, in fact, what the Bills said, including after we lost our star Tre White to IR. Second of all, in terms of cap, the Bills have the 2nd most cap devoted to DL this season at $43.5M. Guess who is #1? KANSAS CITY, at $46.4. KC also has the 4th highest spend in the league at DB. Both of those tell us that KC has been aggressive in making additions to improve their D. KC has also used a lot of their top draft picks on D. Obviously, they used a first on Mahomes in 2017 as well as their 2018 first round pick, and they traded their 2021 1st round for Orlando Brown. But they traded their 2019 1st round pick for Frank Clark, a big investment in D. They used their 2nd round pick on D in 2017; their top oick (2nd), 2 3rds, and 4th in 2018; one of their 2 2nd rounds (no first, remember) and their 3rd in 2019 (no 4th); their 2nd and 4th in 2020 and 2021 (again, no 1st in 2021). They have invested at least as many recent top draft picks on D as the Bills have. I would have to say that is NOT what the Chiefs have done. On the one hand, this makes sense to me - we need to bring in some guys where we "know what we got". On the other hand, UFAs in FA don't come cheap On the third hand, one of the major feedback McDermott got when he was fired in Philly was "you have to make sure your guys buy in". It's a repeated theme - last season some of the D who were interviewed said "guys are bought in now" (implying maybe some weren't, earlier). I think it's almost a paralyzing fear to McDermott at times when considering mid-season improvements or free agent signings. It's the reason, I think, we perceive him as favoring guys he knows (ie, ex-Panthers)

Totally different situation.

I'm confused. When was this? Mariota threw 2 attempts for 1 completion this year. He played like 3/4 of 1 game last season, and looked OK. But he also washed out of Tennessee in favor of Tannehill. Judging by the contract he signed, he was brought in to compete with Carr for the Raiders job and that just didn't happen. What has he shown that you feel would persuade a 3rd team to take a shot on him as a starter? It's not like he was horrid in Tennessee as a starter - he would definitely give a team a chance to win with a strong defense and run game - but I think he's the dreaded "not quite good enough" guy, and it's telling that Tennessee benched Mariota for the oft-criticized "not quite good enough" Tannehill and promptly went to the playoffs 3 years on a row. I think another interesting question is whether Tennessee stays with Tannehill - who I think is pretty clearly a better QB than Mariota, but is also looking like That NQGE Guy. Right now, he's got 2 years left on his contract at $38.6M and $37.6M, with $57.4M of dead cap if they cut him, and Vrabel came out post-season and emphatically said that both Downing (OC) and Tannehill are staying. But that kind of leaves them in the position of trying to improve by keeping things the same. IMHO, Trubisky deserves to. Nagy kind of had a chance to answer the "was it you, or was it me?" question this season and the answer rather pointed at himself. IIRC, the Steelers beat us on a blocked punt returned for 7 points.

Ha! Even PFF has converted on their Josh Allen evaluation, and Sam Monson admitted at that time "none of us really believed that" That little admission tells you all you need to know about the fan-facing side of the business that PFF runs

In case anyone misses the #LoveAndHonor reference, it's the motto of Miami University of Ohio Why Mariota? It's an interesting thought about Trubisky. He would fit pretty well there, I think.

That's true for every HC hire. What are the choices when hiring a HC? You either hire a guy who did it before and failed (or he wouldn't be on the market), or you hire an OC who's never done it. In both cases, they need to prove they can get it done. In fact, one way to look at it would be if the HC is doing HC things and responsible for the whole organization, he has less time and effort to give the QB than a guy who is just running the offense and has more time to focus on QB development.

Heh. Yeah, plus the last 2 minutes of the KC game plus overtime are not exactly a good "resume builder" for Frazier.

Considering that Eberflus held us to 15 points this season and pretty well stifled our offense in the playoffs last year, I can't say I'm sorry to see him go.

It's not an unreasonable possibility that Rousseau and Basham might see big jumps. Phillips was not "all that" in the early part of the season after he recovered from ACL surgery, and he had his injury earlier in the season. Both Philips and Zimmer have been down with injuries - Zimmer this season, Phillips lost most of one season, was hindered the next, and was hindered by a different ligament injury at the start of this season. So let me ask it a different way. Last year, Beane made a strong case that "we need to affect the QB more". Is it a reasonable EXPECTATION that by going with Zimmer off injury, Oliver, Phillips (oft injured), and Lotulelei (who Beane indicated fell off the last part of the season, which he attributed to Covid) at DT and Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham and a lower-tier FA or 2 at DE - but losing Hughes, Epenesa, Butler, and Obada - we will continue to at least maintain the same level of "affecting the QB" as this past season? Do you want to bet the season on Rousseau, Basham, and Epenesa taking a step?

Sanders, Beane indicated he thought he wanted to retire. He also sounded open to bringing him back. IMHO that would be a mistake. I thought he took snaps from Davis and from McKenzie that his production didn't always justify, and I never felt he had that trust from Allen that they were on the same page, perhaps because a "foot injury" kept Sanders out of the entirety of training camp. (And when he was targeted a lot in the first 2 games, IMHO that affected us) Beane never said in so many words they wanted McKenzie back, but when talking about Cole Beasley, he went on at some length about all the things McKenzie brings to the table that Beasley doesn't. "Isaiah really helped the running game", listed off a bunch of different plays and said "we don't use Cole in those roles". Kumerow has been a key ST player, and he's also a strong blocker downfield and even in the backfield (although not in-line like a TE). So when you look at those "decent $$" which are $7.5M next year, with $6M cash and $1.5M dead, the question becomes "does Beasley contribute more than McKenzie plus Kumerow plus perhaps a younger guy we could sign?"

They were limited during the season, just due to trying to limit contacts during the season. Doesn't apply to prior to or after the season.

C'mon man! What kind of "heavy price" could those guys possibly pay?

I wonder if Dion and Diggs will go.

I don't know if it would work or who would be interested, but the way Beane repeated "he's under contract" combined with him saying "Cole can still play, and he’ll continue to play in this league" vs "he'll continue to play for us" or "we look forward to having him back" made me wonder if Beane might try to package him as part of a trade to fill some of our gaps in other areas? That's just a stray thought though, I don't have any team in mind who would benefit from having a WR like Beasley. But perhaps if Daboll does get a HC gig and would like Beasley there to help teach his offensive system and work with young WR, that would be a possibility. Beasley would have value beyond his on-field contributions in that instance.

I don't know why reading comprehension is an issue here Literally no one has suggested that we add it to the $3-4M he suggested McKenzie be offered, and "something else" literally means just that - "something else". It's your interpretation that he was suggesting a $2-3M signing be made, vs just having the money available to use as part of an offer.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/steelers-legend-ben-roethlisberger-officially-announces-his-retirement-from-the-nfl/

It's not just "tweaking things around the margins" IMHO. Addison and Hughes are both FA, as is Harrison Phillips and Butler. Rookie replacements Rousseau, Epenesa, and Basham look like the "not ready for Prime Time" bunch as did Lotulelei the 2nd half of the season. So, after using one 1st and 2 2nd round picks on DL in the last 2 seasons, we're in the place of still having to re-build our DL.

OK now that some articles have come out such as this one from new TBN writer Katharine Fitzgerald, actual quotes of what Beane said: I think by "where he was at", Beane is talking about does Cole wish to retire or keep playing? The thing is, factually, Cole's snaps barely diminished between last year and this year. As an absolute number, in fact, they went up and as a percentage decreased only ~5%: 691 snaps this season (62%) vs 680 last season (66%). He had slightly more targets this year, as well - 112 this season vs 107 last season. His catch % fell a bit, from 77% to 73%, which amounts to 4-5 catches. The big change is in his yards per target (from 9 to 6.2) and his yards per reception (from 11.8 to 8.5), and that was mostly in his YBC. Fitzgerald's article is overall a good read with quotes from what Beane said about Hughes, Sanders, etc Is Gage a slot guy? My knowledge comes only from the stat sheet - but his stats put him squarely into the category of the NFL's squeezed out "middle class", a guy who has finished his rookie contract but hasn't put up strong enough numbers overall to break into the top tier of WR. I think you bring up a valid point in that sometimes Beane is hanging on too long to the same aging guys. In the Fitzgerald article I reference above, Beane actually referenced bringing back Jerry Hughes and Emmanuel Sanders. I do NOT think we got $6M of production from Sanders, and I think he took away snaps from younger more productive guys like Davis. Ditto Hughes, who got paid $9.4M

I don't think it's that reasonable to lump 2019 in there because as Beane himself said, in 2019 we really just had Beasley and Brown. In 2020 we got Diggs and Davis, and McKenzie started to show he could actually play WR, so there were a lot more mouths to feed. In addition, the Bills offense was different in 2019 - Allen was not yet throwing with anticipation and they weren't running all those option routes Beasley excels at. Compared to 2021, YBC was ~60% higher and YAC ~20% higher in 2020. A key metric is also 1st downs, declined from 53 to 34 or 56% less. Now that may go with shorter routes, but we all saw Beasley going down before he was hit at times. The unanswered question to me is: Is this decline on Beasley, or a change in the Bills passing game? My "eyeball test" which says that the Bills were not running the same depth of intermediate routes which they ran to great success last season, for most of the year. Perhaps Cover1 will do a piece on it - I am not a subscriber, just a viewer, but if anyone is a subscriber, please ask if they would find it interesting to compare the Bills intermediate passing game last year vs. this year - I think there would be a lot of interest. Greg Cosell mentioned the same thing on his show with Brown and Tasker, so I know I'm not the only one who sees this, but it was literally a drive by "of course, the Bills intermediate passing game was so productive last year and it's gone this year for various reasons" without going into what he sees as those reasons since the topic was breaking down the next week, not delving into the passing game details for the season. Anyway, the question is, was Beasley slower and unable to execute those deeper intermediate routes quickly enough, or was the defense typically playing to take those routes away since they were so productive last season (leaving shorter and longer routes), or did pass protection break down before the intermediate routes got open? and maybe the answer is "some of each" or "it varies" but what Beane does will probably vary depending upon his answers.

I think you're critiquing the strong side not the weak side of that post. I could be wrong, but this year, I don't think McKenzie is going to get $3-4M AAV. That would slot him in as ~ a #40 paid WR in the league, but more importantly, put him in with the 1st round rookies. Last year I actually thought he might get that kind of offer, and with all the salary cap goings on, I was wrong. It's the hard reality of the NFL salary cap that it's whittled away at the veteran "middle class" and left the top WR who are paid $6M and up (like Beasley and Sanders), the rookies, and the lower rent guys. I don't think McKenzie has shown enough to get out of the "middle class". "for something else" is the weak side becaues would clearly include using the money to beef up someone else's contract offer, but You Do You. Now this is a poor take on the other side. McKenzie legitimately has that property no one can coach - speed. Our defensive players know it. And he's developed into a competent NFL WR who can run routes and block, surprisingly well for his size and weight. He's tough. Unlike a lot of fast guys, he can actually play football. He's not just a "product of Allen" at this point. That said, if he'd developed into a reliable KR/PR he might be worth that if the salary cap wasn't still recovering. But he didn't and it is.

Of all the things to worry about, this is what you choose? I wish I were you. (going off to worry about the Bills pass rush)

OK I'll bite here. This is a different approach, but Hear Me Out work with me here. Keep McKenzie if we can, and sign Cordarelle Patterson. He's 30 yr old, so there's that. But so was Beasley when he came here. He's been a strong kickoff returner who showed he could take it to the house. He ran a 4.42 40 in his day but he weighs 220 (he's a truck). You're adding speed! He's a FA after a year with Atlanta, where he was used more out of the backfield than as a receiver, so he's a dual threat that way, but because he hasn't been used that much as an RB before the last 2 seasons, so he doesn't have 8 years of wear and tear on his body. But having shown he can function that way, he could give us that Thurman Thomas style dual threat. He signed with Atlanta last year for 1 yr/$3M. I'll give credit where credit is due to @JGMcD2 for this notion and bow out if he wants to defend it more.

Beane actually pretty well said as much during his presser - that he thought Hughes was thinking about retiring, but that if he wanted to play they would like to talk to him about a 1 yr deal. But it's not enough, IMO. It would be trying to get a different result by repeatedly doing the same thing. I think there's something to this argument. It's a fear of mine that because the final failure was a defensive failure, we're going to continue on the path of investing our highest draft picks and largest share of FA money on D and under-invest on OL and skill players for offense. 3 of the 4 remaining teams in the playoffs are in the top half of the league in terms of points allowed defensively. The Chiefs are 8th and the 49ers 10th. The Bengals are the outlier at 17. Some people would consider we got an elite difference-maker on defense in Tre White.

Norwell? The guy who shows up as the #2 FA guard on Spotrac with an AAV of $13.3M? Yeah. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ufa/guard/all/ I think what the guy you're talking to may have meant is that we have *improved* this year to a point where we are even with them and the game is close to a coin flip. At least that's how I took it.