Hapless Bills Fan

Er….in general TEs have a higher catch % than WR. That’s the reason Knox is 28th in catch percentage amoung TE with a catch % of 69% that would be excellent for a WR. the OP put out a bunch of comparisons to other TE. The only measurable I could find by which he’s top 10 is TDs. What are your measurables or metrics to argue he’s top-10?

Mistakes are always relative. If, as BadOlBilz believes, he’d be wanting something like a 4 year, $40M contract, is that a good deal or a mistake? $10M per year would mean not signing or re-signing someone else - perhaps Diggs who will eventually want a new contract. That’s a lot of money for 587 yds per season.

Hey Irv! Just checking in to hand you your receipts. This aged well, didn’t it?

Eh. I think Spotrac is problematic when it comes to a player like Patterson, or for that matter a player with a somewhat unique skill set like Milano. They projected Feliciano, Williams, and Milano all as getting more than they did, and while in part that may have been taking a bit of a discount, I think it also reflects both a skillset that won't suit all schemes (thus a limited market) and sometimes areas where stats don't tell the whole story.

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough? When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps) That's a 51% increase in snaps per game. In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game That's a 50% increase in receptions per game In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game That's a 63% increase in yards per game But the bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block. He improved in other ways, of course: His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69% So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3 His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6% Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles. This year he did not fumble. I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver. His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well. How was he relative to other TE across the league? I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. Among TE, Knox was: 13th for Y/G with 39 14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3 15th for Y/R with 12 14th for 1D with 41 28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69% Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie) So except in TDs, kind of middling Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better. And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit. This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday? Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop. He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller. He is a good young TE, though. Thoughts?

I think that's missing a point. Where Cordarelle really came on in Atlanta is as a dual run/pass threat. He racked up 1166 yards from scrimmage on offense: 618 rushing for 4 y/a, 548 receiving for 10.5 y/a. Plus of course, kick returning. The Bills tried to use Breida in this role, but the experiment failed for several reasons including ball security, inability to figure out who to block and get it done (fact), and potentially problems with grasping the offense (that's a rumor, I don't know if it's true). At the end of the season, the Bills started to use McKenzie on runs outside the tackles out of the backfield, and Beane commented that "Isaiah really helped our running game". But it's unclear whether 1) McKenzie wants that role 2) McKenzie would be sure-handed enough in that role 3) McKenzie's 178 lb frame would hold up against the punishment of that role. Patterson is a relative Tank at 6'2", 220 lbs, yet he is fast with a 4.42 sec 40 time. He didn't start being used as a dual-threat until 2018 (age 27) in NWE, so even though he's turning 31, he doesn't have the wear and tear on his body that a RB has at that age. I believe he can block, from what I understand. I don't know what his market or salary would be, but one line of thought has been that we're missing that Thurman Thomas dual threat guy, and while it would be great to draft and develop that piece, Patterson could fill an immediate need. He signed with Atlanta for $3M after signing in Chicago 2 yrs/$10M He is friends and former teammates with Diggs - they overlapped in Minnesota. What do you see as his projected Payout?

Hill was a 5th rounder because he'd been kicked off the OSU team for allegedly punching his pregnant girlfriend in the stomach and face and choking her. He was given probation and directed to take anger management and counseling classes. You don't typically find a diamond that can shine that brightly in the 5th round unless there's a flaw - either a checkered past, or an injury history, or something.

The "above the law" thing is part of it The "gangsta" thing though...for a lot of these guys, it's the life they know. It's who they're surrounded by when they go visit their families, to the extent and if they have families. If they bring a friend or two with them to their new life as an NFL player to help them deal with stuff like car repairs and so forth, it's who their friends are. Consider Aaron Hernandez. Even for the guys who don't go that far, it's how Shady McCoy wound up being investigated for an after-hours nightclub brawl.

Well....he seems to be working more on the former than the latter https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/01/29/chiefs-reportedly-release-damon-arnette-following-fridays-arrest Next stop: Cleveland

Just like Nick Wright's parentage 😋

Or poisoned, LOL. They're all under contract. He wants 'em, Beane says "what will you offer me?" Yeah, it's weird to me how everyone attributes whatever happens with McKenzie to McDermott. And McDermott did bench McKenzie after the contactless fumble. But in general, we have no reason to think that Daboll doesn't design the plays, install the gameplan, and call the plays - so whether McKenzie is on the field or not, and what role he has when he's on the field, would appear to depend on Daboll, presumably with some input from Chad Hall and from Allen.

Looks like you might have to wait Dolphins are the only remaining team that has interviewed him, and that was on 1/16 after the NE game and before the KC meltdown Nothing about a 2nd interview https://www.profootballrumors.com/2022/01/2022-nfl-head-coaching-search-tracker

This may be up thread and I missed it, but someone thinks Dorsey is already gone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Dorsey "Kenneth Simon Dorsey (born April 22, 1981) is an American football coach and former quarterback who is the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the Giants Giants of the National Football League (NFL)."

Yes, Henry and Taylor are terrific players. Both have, in fact, had games where they were held in check. I suppose there is a running back somewhere who has succeeded behind an OL that can't block for him, but I'm struggling to think of him right now. The Titans and Colts OLs say "Hi" Having an RB who can make plays when you need them, generally depends upon having an OL who can spring that guy to the 2nd level when you need them to

I'm sure they are shaking out the sofa cushions in Mara's office for spare change looking at the roster to see where cap can be freed up to bring in players they want Though seriously, when I heard what Beane said in his presser, "I just may plan to trade him" was exactly how I interpreted it. At the time, Daboll wasn't hired by the Giants of course.

Imma gonna flag you over in the Beane presser thread in hopes of getting more details on what you heard. But yes. He said the OL was "something to build on", that it all starts with protecting Josh, and that part of protecting Josh is the run game. He also said "Isaiah really helped the running game", make of that what you will.

Ha! And something OTHER than Saquan Barkley and his $7.2M (tieing threads together)

That's true, but it's also true (what @Zerovoltz has said) that the Chiefs do kind of take a "Stars and Jags" approach. They've got their stars (Hill and Kelce). They've got their 1st round RB Edmunds-Helaire, who is not as good as Hunt was but the point is - he was a big investment of draft resources. The rest, Hardman, Pringle, etc are JAGs who can play. We need at least another star to pair with Diggs. As I said elsewhere, to my POV Brady had at least two "stars" for most of his tenure in NE.

My point was that the Pats kept Brady with at least 2 premier skill weapons for most of his tenure.

I'll respond because I've been thinking about this and don't mind typing it into words, even though it seems unlikely to result in meaningful discourse here. I'm not arguing for us to trade for Barkley, in case that got confused. I don't see that as a good use of Bills trade capitol or cap $$ There's leverage on both sides. That's all I'm saying. The Giants leverage is that it's better for Barkley's career prospects long-term to play with a better team this year or make himself more tradeable if he wants out. Barkley's leverage is that if they want his help in making him more tradeable or dropping their cap, there needs to be something in it for him. Yeah, if Barkley wants to be paid close to $7M/yr on a new deal, he doesn't have leverage for that.

Wes Welker, followed by Edelman after Moss, Rob Gronkowski Then they had a series of 1 year rentals in the 4k range - when you're a perennial championship contender with the GOAT at QB, it's easy to persuade an aging WR who can still play like Brandon Lloyd to come collect 100+ targets and 900 yds for you. They were fortunate to develop Gronkowski and keep him on a cheap contract for a long time. At the end of his tenure there, I understood "not having enough weapons" was one of Tom's beefs, but they kept the larder pretty decently stocked for him most of his tenure. NE cheaped it a lot on OL. They had usually 3 really good guys and a bunch of fill-ins. Their OL coach Dante Scarnecchia, Coach Scar, was a genius at whipping young or journeyman OLmen into shape and teaching them to hold in ways that weren't usually called. My opinion: I live in fear that Brandon Beane will try to do what was done in Carolina, where they figured they didn't need an OL or great WR because Cam. They rode him into the ground and ruined him. Hopefully Beane learned What Not To Do.

"None" is obviously not correct on leverage. Players are widely known for preferring longer deals and loathing to play on a 1 yr contract, even if it's a lucrative 1 year contract. I would assume that holds for Barkley who is historically not durable. It would be in his interest to negotiate a longer deal even if the AAV is lower, provided the up front and guaranteed money is at least as good. But they certainly have a lot less leverage when he can just sit there until he likes what he sees and collect $7.2M

McKenzie sure looked like a guy who could catch in that NE game. And in subsequent games, while he didn't make a lot of catches, the ones he made were pretty durn good. He does have 3 drops on the season, but an overall catch % of 77% (which is biased up by having a lot of short passes, but he did catch more balls downfield this year). What we don't know is: could he hold up to that load, week after week? I think you're correct that the #1 thing for a WR is catching (and hanging on to the ball) but the #2 thing is getting open - maybe that's even #1. As Josh Allen says "Get open, and Catch the Ball". I think the problem for McKenzie has been the "get open" part, and the crisp route running. He's only just got to the point where he can do it. I'm not ready to annoint Gabe Davis yet. Were you at the Jets game? Perhaps you have a different impression from being there - but he had 14 targets and 3 receptions that game. He has 5 drops on the season (out of 63 targets) and 2 INTs on targets intended for him. Overall he had a 55% catch % last season and 56% this season. Now Sanders had a couple low catch % games, especially to start the season and in the NWE and JAX losses. He had an overall catch % of 58% and 3 drops on 72 targets. So it's not like Davis was way off some of the other guys. Just be open to the possibility that there might be a bit of recency bias in your Davis assessment. Why do you think that McKenzie doesn't get opportunities in the slot because he's in McDermott's doghouse, vs. because he's perceived by Hall and Daboll, based on what they see in practice, as a less capable route runner than Cole Beasley or Manny Sands who is especially less able to get open and run option routes against zone coverage?

Ha. It would be a fair cop on me that I always think the cap is a bigger issue, probably a bigger issue than it is, truly. Not in the post you're quoting, I'm not - nothing says that the contract can't be renegotiated. For example, Allen's $23M option for 2022 was renegotiated when he signed his contract extension, and his cap hit for 2022 is now $16M. But it's a fair cop on me that I thought the 5th yr option still wasn't guaranteed until the start of the new league year, and missed that this is the year that changes. The Giants are stuck, unless they negotiate a new contract. Heh.

A guy whose worst year was 1330 yds from scrimmage? *drool* Even with N'Orleans eating his signing bonus, though, he's $11M/yr for the next 2 years. Who are they?