Hapless Bills Fan

Fair take. As far as "Tua believers" and a damper on expectations, The Fins won 8 of their last 9 games. I can't claim I watched every game, but from what I saw Tua played pretty well in most of them (didn't look good against Tennessee or the Jets). From the bits and pieces I hear (again it's not like I haunt Dolphins boards or scour the Miami media,) hopes in Tua revived with that. Welp, if Harbaugh's offense wins in snowstorms, that takes out half the games for Miami right off the start

So of interest I think, is the Extra Point show where they brought in Zo Alexander. https://24343.mc.tritondigital.com/OMNY_THEEXTRAPOINTWITHSALCAPACCIO_P/media-session/3cd1f8b6-066d-40cb-8809-d4474d624e0a/d/clips/4b5f9d6d-9214-48cb-8455-a73200038129/07dea503-a77f-4b13-8c65-a92b003719c6/ffc669b9-a55d-4b59-9253-ae2b010a41fc/audio/direct/t1643386438/EXP_-_How_do_players_feel_about_the_last_13_seconds.mp3?t=1643386438 Zo's appearance starts at 25:43. 31:50 on the kickoff, Zo says "the players know what happened, for sure" and "the players know, the players will handle it" 33:34 on the defense during 13 seconds, the host comments on a text from a HS football coach "how do you play outside leverage and give Kelce a free release?" Zo hedges on being critical saying that there's always a reason and if he asked coach he might say "OK that makes sense", but he says he was surprised, that there are variations on a "loose defense" that they played when he was there where maybe he would be the "joker" and jam Kelce. Worth a listen IMHO.

OK, but are the Dolphins in the same "need a turnaround" bucket? I don't follow college football, but SF was indeed a pretty bad team when he took over there. Best record in the previous 6 years was 8-8. The other 5 years worse. Miami has had 2 winning seasons under Flores. I can see why Harbaugh is interested in Miami - they do have talent, as well as draft picks and cap space. I'm not so sure it's the "turnaround" situation he excels at though. Expectations are already high.

Why the Harbaugh love? Sure, he turned around a SF team and with the help of Roman, made Alex Smith into a serviceable QB, and accumulated a winning record. But he also mis-managed the QB situation there in most hindsight judgements - Alex Smith went on to 7 years of solid QB play with 2 teams, including 4 playoff appearances and improved performance stats for the most part. Yeah, he's not Pat Mahomes but he proved better than the "Hot hand" Kaepernick. He also kind of seems to wear out his welcome after a few years.

That's a sensible interpretation, but while we don't want to be a run-first team with Josh under center, at the least we need to be built so we can run enough to win over division rivals at home.

I kind of had similar thoughts watching the game "Why is Mahomes running in circles instead of taking the running lanes he has there?" I thought they came out in the 2nd half looking past the Bengals. It wasn't just on Mahomes though. His guys had a number of dropped balls they would ordinarily haul in - Kelce, Hill, etc. I do think that after a team plays a "give it all you got" "lay everything out there" epic, there is a tendency to fall flat the next game. I thought the Bills did that a bit in the AFCCG last season after the hard-fought very physical Ravens game.

You're not wrong with the title, but WTF is it with "neutral fields" for the Superbowl turning in to "at home" 2 years in a row? I don't know what to think about this game. Part of me wants to see Stafford win a championship, as a reward for 12 years of dreary slog in the Detroit wasteland. Part of me will projectile vomit if I see Stan Kroenke hoisting a Lombardi. Judging by friends and neighbors locally, the number of people in St Louis with similar tendencies might pose a serious solid waste problem to the city. Part of me is rooting for Joe Burrow. Part of me thinks Stafford's QB play (or the plays McVay calls) are a bit bizzare. Stafford came one dropped pick away from losing the game, and threw into double coverage enough to be a trend.

One of the things in Beane's end of season presser that caught my attention was his comment about the first NE game. He said: "The weather suited how they were built more than we" Beane, Bruh - your team plays in Buffalo. Just why is that, if true?

The problem with "impact guys in depth" is the salary cap. The Bills are already near the top of the league in DL spending the last 2 seasons. You'll figure out pretty soon what people are banging the same drum. Put them in your ignore list and rest easy.

I'm sorry for your loss! We will miss his contributions here.

I take his point that the squib kick isn't a slam-dunk call, but the Bass-Master had been successfully pinning teams deep all season. So this wasn't a case of a "seldom used" technique or a kicker we're not sure we can trust. The point is valid that the kick through the endzone doesn't matter if the defense "does its job".

I can't resist commenting "Huh! This Aged Well!" For a serious response: It's worth noting that prior to advancing to the Superbowl and winning the big game, Reid fired his long time DC Bob Sutton and hired Steve Spagnuolo, who washed out in his 3 year stint as HC, but who seems to be a helluva DC when given the right tools. So maybe it's not all a Reid learning process Maybe part of the learning process was being ruthless when a guy just isn't getting it done and move on. Just making the point that it's can't all be laid to improvement in Reid's coaching chops. I don't think that follows. I think Cincy was a tougher game than many here thought.

Correct, you did not, that was the claim of the poster I was responding to, @Solomon Grundy

So your definition of “immediate impact” is “maybe come back mid to end season”? I’m not arguing about the draft choice, I don’t follow college football and have no business having an opinion. I’m just pointing out the contradiction between looking for immediate impact, and drafting a player who likely won’t play for most of the season.

I am such a lightweight

Not if he’s still rehabbing an ACL tear. That’s a 9-12 month rehab

Dang it, you edited this before I could loop back and quip “if you have 52 chromosomes, you’re probably a Platypus and don’t have much interest in football” That’s. Perfect.

Why does it have to be “knock Allen down a peg”? Burrow played 2 great playoff games. He showed grit and poise and came back from a deficit. He also led his team to beat KC in the regular season. He’s #1 in completion percentage, #6 in passing yards (Allen is #8), right next to Allen for passing TDs and INTs. There are objective metrics and game results that are a reasonable basis to believe he’s better than Allen or at least as good, without “looking for a reason to knock Allen down a peg”. When you win, you’re considered a better QB than when you lose, that’s just how it is. Edit: I need to add that’s not my opinion, of course. I wouldn’t trade our rocket-armed Centaur for any QB on the planet. My point is just that people can honestly believe Burrows is a better QB at this point on objective metrics and results, without being motivated to “knock Allen down”

And I have no argument with any of that. My point is if you want to call that “objective” or assert that “any other objective fan must agree”, you’re moving beyond what can truly be described as “objective”, and you’re trying to lay claim to a universality that just doesn’t belong to eyeball scouting. And see, this is where relying on eyes and memory can let you down. I don’t see how anyone could omit Andrews from an assessment of top TE right now, for example.

Sweeney saw his snap count plummet after the Jax game and was inactive 4 games at the end of the season, because he is in fact NOT a blocker. The Bills had hopes he would develop into a blocker - he has the size and frame for it - but 3 years in and that hasn’t happened. So he got benched in favor of putting in Tommy Doyle when they wanted an extra blocker.

That’s a fair point. Since I lack data on how much various TE were asked to block, I dodged the issue (and acknowledged that limitation in my OP)

So if you “eyeball test” Knox and feel he’s top 10, that’s fine, your perogative. I have “eyeball” opinions on various players myself, including Knox. My point is you said “ “Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10”. That kind of certainty/generalization typically needs to have support other than “my eyes”, unless you have chops as a professional scout or some such.

Objectively, unless you cherry pick your statistics and put on homer glasses, Knox appears to slot in about 13-15th among TE

What the hell is an explosive play % per snap, and what is it for the rest of the league’s TE?

That could happen What has Sweeney done to persuade you of this?