Hapless Bills Fan

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/02/05/att-pebble-beach-pro-am-hes-the-best-quarterback-in-the-field-but-did-you-recognize-him/ PEBBLE BEACH – Outside of the confines of Buffalo and perhaps his hometown of Firebaugh in the San Joaquin Valley, Josh Allen can still stroll around without being recognized. A chiseled golfer with movie star looks, though, does at least create curiosity on the golf links, punctuated with 300-yard drives. Allen, who is taking part this weekend in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the first time, has evolved into one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. Yet, only a few fans seem to recognize the 25-year-old on the greens. (....) Two weeks removed from playing in arguably one of the wildest NFL playoff games in the league’s 101-year history, Allen was calmly swinging golf clubs on some of the nicest courses in the world. “Going from using a silent cadence because you can’t even hear your own thoughts, to your thoughts being the loudest thing you hear on the golf course – sometimes that’s almost as scary,” Allen said. It was eerie silent at times Thursday as galleries flocked to find the likes of actor/comedian Bill Murray, who teed off 43 minutes earlier, while others wanted a glimpse at boxer Canelo Alvarez. apparently so

Sure there's the "it factor", but for a football team, positive plays win games. Lamar has seen his YPG improve, but his INT % and his sack % went up also, while his rush y/a and YPG both have trended down. The question the Ravens didn't entirely get to answer due to his illness and injury issues, is whether the league has "solved" him or whether he's improved his passing game enough to counter. They picked up his 5th year option and have the option to "just" pay him $23M and then try to negotiate a deal if he stays healthy.

Feliciano got paid as a starting guard who added value by being able to flip sides and play C. He lost his starting gig to Boettger and then Bates and he's paid too much to be a backup, especially a 3rd string backup. Boettger earned $2.3M last season but is returning from an Achilles injury. Not sure what that does for his market. Bates is a UFA can offer Bates a tender if we so choose. Since he was an UDFA for the Eagles, an "original round" tender is meaningless: Projected Restricted Free Agent Tenders Right of 1st Refusal: $2,433,000 Original Draft Round: $2,540,000 2nd Rounder: $3,986,000 1st Rounder: $5,432,000 I expect the Bills will try to sign him to a modest 3 year deal, but if he wants to test the market we could offer him a Right of 1st Refusal tender for projected $2.4M, or a 2nd round tender for projected $3.99M. Feliciano is slated to earn $4.97M this year with $1.5M dead cap, providing $3.47M savings. This means we could cut Feliciano, offer Bates a 2nd round tender, draft a G or C/G to develop, and it would only cost us $0.52M additional money, and keep "something to build on" intact. It actually wouldn't shock me if Bobby Johnson goes to the Giants, if Beane managed to flip Feliciano to the G-men for a late round pick or lower-on-the roster defensive player who might no longer fit their D if they hire Wink Martindale.

Heh. Translation: "He stole our Flow! He stole our entire Flow!"

There would have to be a lot of caveats and hedges around such a rule, to prevent this: the HC would have to be retained for a minimum of 3 seasons, there would have to be careful definition of what "HC" meant to avoid hiring a figurehead etc. It could be done, but I'm not a fan Yeah, that was the rationale - to encourage teams to promote and develop Black coordinators and high-level FO positions, and be rewarded for that. I can't guarantee that it isn't backfiring to some degree as teams may not want to give their competitors goodies The rest of your post makes a good point with regard to mentorship.

Looking at Wink Martindale and Sean Desia (2021 Bears DC). Wonder who else? Some people have suggested that Martindale's blitz-heavy defenses are outdated in the modern NFL

Sheesh, some people are never happy. You played a bunch of 'em, you're supposed to be 😂 And it even initiated some good football discussion so I forgive you, you Bad Man[tm]🦨

No surprise, we knew his team was going to play up his "League MVP", his 1st team all-pro selection that year, and his 2 pro bowl appearances, but Wow. IMHO the jury is still way out on whether they'll get their money's worth at the QB position. Any word on Mayfield?

Poor translation. In this case, Graham got consideration for the HC job. Daboll interviewed Tuesday. Graham interviewed Wednesday. If I were interviewed for a big promotion and didn't get it, I might well not care to stick around and report to the guy who got the step I wanted. I'd be like "Oh, OK Then, I see how you rate me" and I'd make plans to make tracks, even if it were a lateral move.

Where have the Bills hired an assistant offensive line coach? First off, Phil Raucher was the Vikes OL coach last season, promoted from assistant. Second, while the Vikes ESPN reporter reported that he'd been hired, this was quickly contradicted by Tom Pelissero and other Bills reporters such as Sal Capaccio, who said that while he was interviewed, no hiring decision has been made. Last, Fact: the Vikings gave up 30 sacks, 5th best in the league last year and 3 more than the Bills. The Bears gave up the most sacks in the league last year, followed by the Ravens then the Bengals, Jets, and Panthers. You need a bit more attention to facts for people to pay heed to your theories about McDermott's alleged need for people he can control.

That has been rumored. I think his youthful indiscretions (some of which are no worse than hundreds of young players over the years, a couple of which are troubling) that gave him a rap sheet may be problematic - but perhaps less so for the "Bountygate" Greggo Williams team?

Are you freakin' kidding me? Beane disagrees with you and so do my eyeballs. I do think over the last 3 years, Josh is working to get down or get out of bounds more and initiate contact less, but he absolutely initiates hits at times. Hopefully Beane learned something from how Cam was handled on the Panthers, and will try to invest more in the OL and the skill positions than the Panthers did.

You'd be having the babies, Son I'm curious where you sourced (or how you calculated) this data? I just looked quickly at the last 2 years on pro-football-reference.com, and when I take Allen rush attempts/(rush attempts plus pass attempts)*100 I get: 2021: 22.7% 2020: 19.9% Which can not average to "27.8% over the last 2 years", so it makes me wonder about your overall numbers. That's not to take away from your overall point, which is that running as much as Josh does, and in the style that he does (taking on contact, stiff-arming dudes) is going to keep putting a lot of wear and tear on him. Beane clearly acknowledged this in his end of year presser. (It's about 38:50 if you want to listen) It was part of questions about Mitch Trubisky and backup QB. Beane said he's up there screaming for Josh to get down, that he doesn't ever get on to Josh for throwing interceptions or fumbles, the only time he gets on him is for taking unnecessary hits. He said "that's his playstyle, that's why we love him, but a backup QB is very important knowing the way he plays the game". In response to the next question, he said that Josh likes to run the ball, he enjoys it, "I think it gets him lathered up" "he's a linebacker playing QB, that's his mentality. I want him to get down, he wants to run over somebody" He said "he's improved" 😄 Beane also said about the OL that "it starts with protecting Josh" and that "part of protecting Josh is the run game" I think that Josh reportedly does a lot of things right - he mentioned after the "Josh Allen is Gumby" hit he took from Bosa in the Chargers game, that he is working with trainers in Cali and on the Bills staff to "make sure he is flexible but still strong". BangedupBills on that hit observed that Josh had good hip flexibility and that likely protected his knee ligaments in that hit (I think I have that right). Probably flexibility is a reason his toe sprain put him in injury report for a week instead of taking him out for several weeks. But these things do accumulate and take a toll, and while flexibility helps, it's overall luck that it hasn't been pushed too far. Jim Kubiak, who analyzes Allen for TBN put it bluntly, something like (paraphrase) "Is Josh Allen the best running back on the Buffalo Bills? If so, why? And if not, why is he being used that way?" I will make a counter-point that I think Josh is more in control when he runs, than at times in the pocket. Overall, I think there are data out there showing that running QB do not get injured more when they run, than they do when they're in the pocket. Maybe someone will provide it.

If they thought Gase was good at developing QBs, one would think that Tannehill before and after Gase in Miami added to Sam Darnold, would disabuse this notion

I don't know what's true, but people have said that Kafka (QB coach) drew up the game plan and Reid calls the plays 🤷‍♂️ The other problem Bieniemy has is his rap sheet as a college player and NFL player, continuing into his early career as a college coach (where he added a DUI) It would probably help Bieniemy's HC aspirations to take a lateral step to an OC position where he unambiguously does all the OC stuff, but hiring decision makers also look for HC from successful teams. So there's a risk.

I think it's generally held true that once a person files a lawsuit against their employer, they better get a settlement large enough to sustain them for life or at least let them switch fields, because they're never gonna be hired in that industry again. No one wants an employee who might be looking at every interaction in their new job as "evidence" for another suit if something pisses them off. Billionaires can certainly be all of those things. I think it's true that NFL owners are probably most strongly motivated by cash flow, and some are motivated by the desire for championships. (It doesn't follow that therefore they have, or utilize, the best objective judgement on how to achieve football success.) But Owners or CEOs or GMs hiring coaches don't need to be any of those things to generate an overall result of bias in hiring HC: Let's look for a moment at the head coaches hired so far: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings (age: 36) ... (OC, Rams) Matt Eberflus, Bears (age: 51) ... (DC, Colts) Brian Daboll, Giants (age: 46) ... (OC, Bills) Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos (age: 42) ... (OC, Packers) Doug Pederson, Jaguars (age: 54) ... (out of football 2021; HC Eagles; OC KC) Josh McDaniels, Raiders (age: 45) (OC, Patriots; former HC, Broncos) The pattern I see is: Three are young offensive coordinators from currently successful teams (1 Superbowl team; 2 playoff teams that contended for conf. championships last season. Two are retread HC from the offensive side of the ball (One long-time OC on a perennial contender who had a good year with a rookie QB) Only one is from the defensive side of the ball and had 4 years as a DC on a contending team As long as this trend for hiring OCs and offensively-backgrounded HCs continues, then the question will be "is there a pool of Black OCs (and Black QB coaches who become OCs) from which HCs with an offensive background could be chosen?". And if the answer is "no" or "not many", then racial disparity in HC hiring outcome will persist, without any need for racist motivations on the part of the hirers. It is (to use a word I used upthread) "baked in" to a selection process that favors coaches with OC experience (and then previous HC experience). The "Shield" pretty much has to investigate (or appear to investigate) what Jackson said, retraction or no. Just as they pretty much have to investigate Flores' allegations about Miami.

Perhaps people who have black ancestry and appear black, instead of "passing" as you apparently can, may have a different viewpoint about what's dividing this country. I think a full-blown discussion of racism, racial politics, and identity politics is beyond the scope here. Keep it to PPP where if I'm not mistaken, you are a regular. I'll just point to the 18 year study linked above that actually followed the careers of 1,200 assistant coaches in the NFL - and calculated, based on a large data base, that white assistant coaches were 144x more likely to be promoted. They tried to account for every variable they could think of (age, playing experience, position coached, etc) and the disparity still existed. You really can't anecdote that study away with your material success, any more than I could anecdote that study into existence with stories from a couple very wealthy black people who have experienced (themselves and family) what appear to be different treatment based upon skin color. PS: post with link to article about study link to request study: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314583797_Racial_Disparity_in_Leadership_Performance-Reward_Bias_in_Promotions_of_National_Football_League_Coaches

Apparently Andy Reid calls the plays. Someone here stated that the KC QB coach, Mike Kafka (whom Daboll just hired as his OC) has actually been creating the game plans. I don't think they gave the source. If that's the case, it's a good question what experience Bieniemy actually does or does not have.

Shame on you crawling in here posting this Crap at this time of night! You're an analytics and stats guy and you know damned well that 100% is the maximum value 🦨

Agreed. McCown would seem eminently qualified to be a coaching assistant or assistant QB coach...QB coach with no coaching experience would be a stretch, but I don't think it would raise too many eyebrows. Hiring a HC with no coaching experience in the NFL at any level at a point where there's heightened awareness of looking at qualifications and hiring the most qualified coaches...it's like saying FU to the NFL and the rest of the NFL owners.

Shad Khan makes a way-too-long statement: and the memes they are a flyin'

The article quotes from a speech Flores made in 2019. He self identified as Black at that point. Latino is typically used as a descriptor of geographical origin, not a race****. So one can be black and Latino, or white and Latino, or mestizo and Latino. Afro-Hondurans are Latino because they hail from Latin America. So are Honduran mestizos. Its not an 'either or" thing where he didn't say he was Black in 2019, and he now had to stop acknowledging his parents Latino heritage in order to be Black. That's cray-cray ****"The terms "Hispanic" and "Latino" refer to ethnicity, culture, and identity. They are groups based on shared culture rather than skin color, race, or other physical features. However, the groups are also broader than ethnicity, which can make the terms confusing."

It's worth noting that Stefon Diggs has a 5 year old daughter, Nova. If you follow him on social media, he occasionally posts pictures of their outings.

"the NFL" that created these rules, is the NFL ownership and executives. The Rooney rule came into being because a majority of the NFL owners said "yeah, we got a problem with under-representation of minorities at the top levels" and tried to come up with a strategy to address it. Whether or not it's an effective strategy is a different issue. The point is it wasn't some nebulous group called "the NFL" deciding there was a problem, it was the NFL owners themselves concluding this based upon data presented to them, and trying to address it. If some owners choose to treat it as a technicality, that's really "on them". At least publicly, prominent owners like Jerry Jones are not denying there's a problem: He's not saying "Wellllll there are 13% blacks in the population and 3-5% at the head coaching level so Where's the Beef?"; he acknowledges there's a problem. Example of hard data about racial bias in NFL coaching. George Washington University, Emory and Iowa state professors tracked 1,200 NFL coaches between 1985 and 2013 (Rooney rule started 2003).  They found that white position coaches were 114x more likely to be promoted to coordinator positions than their black counterparts (these promotions did not come under the Rooney rule until this season). They then used the data set to control for various factors like age, experience, college experience, and found that there was still a significant bias: They concluded that the real disparity in NFL promotions lies lower down from the coordinator level:

That's not what people were saying up-thread - they were saying that only the top 25 pairs play on Saturday. 🤷‍♂️