Hapless Bills Fan

You don't mention the source of the rumors. Having Toney on that list makes it sound like an Internet Dude's List O' Spitballs Most 1st rounders get more than a year to prove themselves, and Toney had an OK year for a rookie. Incoming OC/HC will view his struggles as due to a faulty offensive system/execution and look at his talent and his 189 yd game against Dallas as harbringers of next year's production. I can't imagine why the Giants would want to trade him. I imagine in Schoen's most vivid wet dreams, someone offers to trade for Barkley - ANYTHING for Barkley. He carries no dead cap and a trade would transfer his $7.2M fully guaranteed 2022 salary to someone else. But his health and on-field production aren't going to have other teams lining up for that. Maybe a team like the Dolphins, Chargers, or Jags who have more cap space than they know what to do with might consider flipping the Giants a late round conditional pick that bumps up a round if he produces to see if they can actually put his undeniable talent to work for them. The Bills aren't in a situation where it's worth the gamble to them. Bradberry can ball. Whether he can ball worth $13.4M to a trade partner for the Giants is another question. That's paying him next door to a top-10 CB in AAV. Is he? Uncertain. The Giants take a big dead cap hit if they cut him - he has a void year in 2023 so they take on extra amortized signing bonus but they still save $12M by cutting him. I'm thinking trade partners figure they can wait until the Giants cut him to free up needed cap, then negotiate. Anyway, the Bills are in need of cheap labor, not a $13.4M trade.

Oh, I see. It's a confusing way to write about it though. The Bills have already paid that money, so it's not "another $2.6M" they would owe next year if he plays this season. It's just a question of whether they take it as a cap hit this season or next.

None of those guys are FA, but the Dolphins have plenty of cap space and plenty of draft picks. Who do you see as a potential fit in the FA WR class? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/cap/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/all/ I dunno. I think Flores falls into the category of "coaches who try to bring Bill Belichick's system elsewhere without the Mad Respect and the winning record that make players suck it up and take it" I think he's a good coach with a lot of fire and determination, but he needed to go to "charm school" and work on his interpersonal skills.

I don't think that's correct. I think his salary guarantees run out this year. He would have a roster bonus of $1M in 2023 but that would guarantee on the 5th day of the new league year. I do note that Spotrac and Overthecap disagree on some details of his contract. I *think* spotrac is more correct. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/star-lotulelei-12294/ https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

I'm not going to debate Star's motivation to play football. He's said flat out that he doesn't love football. His motivation comes in portraits of dead presidents. When that's the motivation, if you're payed whether you perform or not, well... But how are you going to "insist that he be there for the offseason and OTAs"? They're called voluntary workouts because they're contractually voluntary up until mandatory minicamp. And even if somehow they did persuade/insist...that doesn't guarantee full-go effort throughout the season. Star did show up in shape and ready to go. Beane pointed to effective play from Star week 2-8, and not as effective play week 13, 15, 17 and 18 plus playoffs. Beane attributed this to lingering effects of Star's bout with covid 19 (did we ever get an explanation of the mysterious "personal reasons" week?) even on a drastically lowered snap count. Obviously McDermott and Frazier have (in the past anyway) disagreed with your long-time take on Lotulelei's on-field contributions, it's not my intent to argue that here. My point is that the coaches and Beane have to decide whether Lotulelei's value to them exceeds the roster space he takes up and the savings from cutting him, based on what they perceive as his on-field and off-field work ethic and committment, not based on a participation in OTAs they can't insist on or enforce, and which wouldn't necessarily foreshadow an adequate season-long effort. I will say that McDermott has repeatedly referenced "leadership in the room" when discussing some of his under-performing veterans, but need to confront the contradiction implicit in having "leaders" like Hughes who don't actually show their butts up for OTAs

This article breaks down the odds that the racial makeup of NFL's HC hiring is the result of unbiased selection https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nearly-all-nfl-head-coaches-are-white-what-are-the-odds/ar-AATyGmO Makes a lot of the points made upthread, that the relevant numbers to look at are not the overall population, but the applicant pool. Critiques Flores lawsuit which references the % of black players when alleging systematic discrimination But points out even looking at the qualified applicant pool, the results we're seeing are still unlikely to be reached by random selection: It then points out that since the NFL teams are also responsible for hiring and promoting coaches to OC, they are also responsible for the disparity in the hiring pool. Then it looks at the odds of the current HC hiring given the racial makeup of the coordinator pool: Also discusses racial makeup of NCAA players since 2/3 of coaches did not play in the NFL Good read IMHO for people who want a fact and reason based approach to the issue. Concludes that there does appear to be a bias problem, indicating that the Rooney rule has not been applied in good faith It also supports (but doesn't state) what several in this thread have implied: that Flores lawsuit was slapped together hastily without much research or care for the comparisons it uses

Think someone from the NFL head office sat down and had a "Come-to-Jesus" meeting with McNair, Easterby, and Caserio? I'm not sure a number of retread HC who have gotten multiple chances to be a HC deserve them. Smith overall has a winning record. Tampa was a disaster when he took over (with McCown as his QB!) and the team improved his 2nd year. For those not following, Smith was DC and associate head coach last season. So this would be an internal hire.

Not 3 TDs. 4 TDs. That was the "That *****in' Guy!" game where someone diagramming plays pointed out a couple where the 49ers did everything right and Josh beat them anyway - something they posited would have DC's throwing their clipboards going "That *****in' Guy" That was a great game - if you're a Bills fan. Even Cris Collinsworth was complimentary of Allen. Course, when a guy throws 4 TD, 0 INT, and 80% completions for 375 yds even Collinsworth can't find a lot to support a narrative that "he isn't that good"

That seems to be the thinking.

That was my first thought Them too

Then again....if you were in my division and I was fairly confident I could own you, what would I say? "Gee, I hope they don't hire that guy...."

Bengals are the home team

Not doubting you just wondering where you’re hearing Flores as the favorite for the Texas gig?

Why not? Flores hired 3 white guys as OCs and moved on from Patrick Graham to Josh Boyer at DC in Miami No, that’s kind of the outrage, that he’s never coached in the NFL at any level

https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/2/6/22919963/49ers-weekend-mike-mcdaniels-interview-with-the-dolphins-lasted-10-hours Report is SF 49ers will receive 2 3rd round draft picks

Turnovers cost KC the game also. If they didn't gift-wrap the Bengals a TD in the 3Q, maybe the Bengals don't tie the game - that was the only TD the Bengals scored And that's leaving out the KC decision at the end of the half to go for it instead of taking more points. But KC didn't seem to have a plan for Burrows having legs, which is a little bit odd to me since he had 14 rushing 1st downs and 4 games where he averaged more than 5 Y/A.

So slotting Wallace in at $9M AAV right now puts him as a top-20 corner in the league Different position, but worth talking about as a clue to how the Bills might value Wallace: The Bills just signed Taron Johnson to a 3 year, $24M contract, $8M AAV. $13.7M guaranteed, $4M signing bonus. Like a lot of these contracts, it's back-loaded with his cap hit going from $2.4M this past season, to $4.5M in 2022, to $9.2 and then $10.2 in '23 and '24. For comparison, it's worth looking at how it's structured and what's guaranteed https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/taron-johnson-25222/ So if the Bills valued Taron Johnson at $8M yr/3 years, with about half of that guaranteed, is it a huge stretch to value Levi Wallace at $28.8M ($9.6M/yr)? One point is to always look at the contract structure and the guarantees. Someone could offer Wallace a $30M 3 yr contract, but how much is up front, and how much is guaranteed?

I would say that's between her and Josh, and no one else. Tell your friend to share with you and you share with us

I don't understand anyone hating the Pro Bowl. You have to care about something to muster up the energy to hate it My attitude towards the Probowl is just apathy

We need speed, we also need a guy who can be physical on the line without becoming toast. People were all "why did we give KC's receivers a free release, why didn't we jam them on the line?" and the answer is "because Wallace and Jackson can't get physical on the line without the risk they'll be beaten like drums" I believe we'll make a push to bring Levi back, even if we are looking at CB in the draft, especially given the situation with Tre White where he may not be ready to start the season, and may not be back to his previous level all season. But we may well be outbid. I just don't have a good sense for what the market for Levi's skill set will be around the league. And if there's one position group where I have confidence in McDermott, Frazier, and John Butler to develop a player into a solid starter, that would be CB. Spotrac values Jackson at $20.9M/ yr. 5 years, $104.7M. They have Charvarius Ward at $9.9M/ yr, 4 years, $39.6M.

I agree, Wallace is worth a lot more than what he played for last season. The difference between last season and this season is that Levi clearly took a step. Remember at the start of the 2020 season when the Dolphins were "picking" on Wallace and Frazier said after the game "Levi needs to make a play, then they'll stop picking on him"? Remember after the 2020 season when Beane said it would be a "conversation" who started between Dane Jackson and Wallace? Yeah, no more of that this season and Wallace shut that convo down quickly in training camp. Then Wallace stepped up again Week 12 when Tre White went out. He has said he considers himself one of the best off-ball corners in the league. That may even be true, but what's the FA market for an off-ball corner who really can not play man? I love Spotrac too, but I think Wallace falls into a category of players Spotrac overvalued the last couple of years. I think in large part, this is fallout from the Cap Crunch. Fundamentally, the Stars still get paid - the Rookie wage scale is fixed - and the "Middle Class", the guys who can Ball but are not Stars - got squeezed. And while the cap has gone up, there's still fallout from last season, because a lot of players took 1 year deals that were structured to look like 2 or 3 year deals and shift part of their cap hit into this season. Other players restructured to "kick the can forward" into this year and the next few years. So the question for Wallace (and the Bills, assuming they'd like to have him back) is what teams are his market, and how do they value him relative to other needs? I don't think Spotrac's market valuation is designed to address that sort of issue. Spotrac has him valued almost at the level of Charvarius Ward, and I don't see that.

In Other News, Water is Still Wet

I guess it just makes me appreciate a bit more when the players sponsor a family to attend. Though perhaps they get comp'ed tickets

Darnold has yet to provide evidence to the contrary, but he was arguably a better QB before Gase got to NY. Tannehill was arguably a better QB the year before Gase arrived in Miami, and a much better QB the year he moved on to Tennessee. "once may be a coincidence, twice may be a pattern"

This is a very astute observation. I think we all evaluate other people in the framework of what a "good job" or a "great job" looks like to us. Warner made it to the NFL and won as an NFL QB by being a rockstar at rapid decision making and by being deadly accurate in the throws he took. He was very much a timing and rhythm passer. In the short to intermediate passing game, he was coached to always take the surest throw. Like the original WCO, the idea was to nibble the defense to death with runs and the intermediate passing game or checkdowns with YAC, and then when they smothered that BAMMO, burn them over the top. Watching Josh Allen must feel like nails down a blackboard sound to Kurt, even when Josh is making good reads and completing passes, because Josh's internal decision tree just looks very different than Kurt's. Josh will frequently pass up the "gimmee" for the higher degree of difficulty intermediate throw that Warner was coached you never take unless the gimmee is covered. That's why Kurt's commentary on a number of Josh completions for good yardage is a wry "Don't try this at home, Kids" and even on plays where Josh is making completions, he criticizes the play because there was an easier or more straightforward completion Josh passed up. The thing is, for Josh, some of those higher degree of difficulty throws are actually relatively easy, and the "easy" checkdowns are relatively hard. It's how his arm worked when he came into the league. Warner doesn't seem able to account for that in his evaluation. Warner is right that at times, Josh needs better decision making pre- and post- snap. If he takes the "gimmee" checkdown promptly his checkdown receiver will be able to get YAC. I would still evaluate Josh's ability to make those throws as "progressing", which is a big improvement from "Awful". And frankly, defenses have the "book" on Josh's tendencies and used it to stymie our offense at times, because any time a defense assesses that they don't need to defend one part of the game, they choke down somewhere else. So Josh needs to take and hit more of those "layups" to open up the rest of the passing game. But I think the reason Warner's evaluations grate on and seem unfair to many of us is that he goes beyond that and judges the totality of what Josh does in the framework of the kind of game he played as a QB and the decisions he was coached to make. So Josh can make a beautiful completion and Warner will criticize it because he passed up an open receiver that would have been an easier throw, and it doesn't seem like a fair evaluation. I'm trying to find a breakdown of one of the Chiefs plays on Twitter. It was the Davis TD I think, and he successively showed what other receivers were open. The headings were "ordinary QB take this throw" "good QB take this throw" (Knox was wide open across the middle for the first down) "Goblin QB take this throw"