Hapless Bills Fan

I never thought but that Rex would bring in his own D, dismantling our #4 D in the process. It's the reason I was opposed to the hire. I was just persuaded he would be more successful in the defensive remodel than he proved.

I'm pretty sure that several players who have retired, have repaid the portion of their signing bonuses that were amortized into or after the year they retired, as well as forfeiting salary guarantees. Some examples here: https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/06/02/calvin-johnson-lions-relationship-returned-signing-bonus https://www.nfl.com/news/chris-borland-to-give-back-portion-of-signing-bonus-0ap3000000480571 Concern about being asked to do this if he 'retired' vs. was released due to injury, was the driver for Eric Wood's farcical "retirement" press conference which Ryan Fitzpatrick mercilessly lampooned as not using the word "retiring", during the FredEx roast. If such bonuses were impossible for teams to recoup, it would have been a non-issue for Wood.

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking in the two questions above. A player can sign a new contract or revise an existing contract at any time. There are no penalties for this. However, provisions of the existing contract that have already been exercised must remain in place. For example, Josh signed a contract incuding a $16.5M signing bonus which the Bills amortized over 5 years. That $3.3M/year cap hit from the signing bonus would remain in place for any new contract he signed; the Bills were assigned a $6.7M cap hit in 2021 for Josh's previous amortized rookie signing bonus added to the new amortized signing bonus The only restriction on signing a new contract is players on their first contract. UDFA can't revise a contract until after their 2nd season, draft choices can't revise until after their 3rd season, and then there is a limit of 25% on salary increase per year. Russ Wilson got majorly screwed by this. A player can revise an existing contract to take a pay cut. This happened with Mitch Morse, Vernon Butler, and Mario Addison last season. The NFLPA has no business to intervene, because NFL salaries are not guaranteed and if the player perceives a benefit to themselves in taking that paycut, it's not in the player's benefit for the NFLPA to play "nanny". For example, Butler took a $2M paycut last offseason, in exchange for having his $3M remaining salary guaranteed. If he were cut, there is no guarantee another team would pay him his $1.7M roster bonus plus original $5M salary (and the NFLPA certainly couldn't require this), and if the new team did sign him for that but cut him at the end of August, there goes his $5M salary; there is no guarantee another team would pick him up or pay him more than vet minimum if they did. So if Butler wants to take $2M less overall salary in exchange for $3M that is guaranteed to be paid, that's between him and the Bills. Mario Addison "bet on himself" when he renegotiated a salary cut, by having the Bills remove his 2022 contract year so that he became a FA Yes, a player can have a "void year" added onto their contract to stretch out the signing bonus. This was the case for Emmanuel Sanders last season. His signing bonus was amortized into this year giving the Bills a $1.375M dead cap hit while he's not under contract. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

Question: was it a critical blow to the offense to not have a 1000+ yd #2 this past season? I would say "not" - and that given - what would be different next season vs .this past season?

Oh, boy. Many. I, too, fooled myself about the Rex Ryan hire, though I claim the "talked into that POV by a guy in a Gold Jacket" mulligan for that one I thought Tyrod Taylor could play QB well enough to get us to the playoffs. I was right about that, kind of - if only the D under Ryan had done their part. I thought Ryan Fitzpatrick could improve his completion %, decrease his INT, and become our franchise QB. Well, he did both - but not here, and not consistently enough to become The Man somewhere else.

I like Davis. But your point about his catch % being low for a true top WR is right on. Davis was scored with 5 drops this past season - (I know you know this, but to put everyone on the same page, drops being balls that basically hit the WR in the hands and are believed able to be caught "without extraordinary effort"). That's 8% drops, and Dawson Knox was firmly written up by Bills fandom as "better, but Still Too Many Drops" at 9% after the 2020 season. To my eyeball, Davis has a bit of "Knox" about him, where he can make tough "climb the ladder" and toe-tapping sideline grabs but fail to haul in the "bunnies" where he's well open. I looked it up on Next Gen stats and you could have a point about depth of target being a factor....they give him a Targeted Air Yards figure of 14.1. For comparison, Stef Diggs and Justin Jefferson are both ~12 TAY. Pro-football-reference says "average depth of target" 13 (they have Diggs at 11 and Jefferson at 12) Davis has commented on Josh's throws hurting to catch at times. Putting that together with some comments I vaguely remember (from Cover1 think) about his hand position on that bad drop of a catchable ball for a TD in the Ravens playoff game last season, and Diggs comments on Josh's balls don't hurt if you catch them properly - I wonder if he has some tendencies in how he prefers to catch that don't "play well" with how hard Josh zips it in there at times? Or does he just lose focus, because he's often expected to block and run decoy routes which (to give him credit) he does very well? Anyway, if he hauls in 4 of those 5 drops, that would put him at 61.9% catch % which would not particularly raise eyeballs.

We don't know but there may also have been some kind of written or "handshake" agreement around playing time when Sanders was signed My gut though, is that the Bills just saw Sanders as their #2 receiver, so once they moved away from 4 and 5 WR sets towards (1,1) and even 2 WR sets, Davis was the odd-man-out

I think there are a couple of things. First, Josh is now established as a superb athlete who has a history of breaking tackles, 'breaking ankles', and stiff-arming guys. Josh made Chris Jones look like a fool a couple times and Jones came over to congratulate him after the game. So while I'm sure LBs and DLmen don't like it, they have respect for Josh now and it doesn't spur dumb extracurriculars as much as it did when he was a punk rookie from a small school. Second, plenty of other guys on the line are willing to run downfield and provide the "human shield" and intimidation factor - Spencer Brown at the top of the list. Third, I don't think it was Feliciano's "nasty demeanor", it was his sneaky that gave guys pause. It's one thing to walk up an take a 15 yd penalty by throwing a defender off your QB, taking a swing, and looming over them, as Ford did a couple times his rookie year. That's self limiting behavior - it hurts the team even as it makes the point, the coaches will get on the OL for it. It's another to line up on ST and unobtrusively and without referee notice retaliate by trying to take a guy's head off or punching him in the nuts during a pile-up for what he did on the previous drive. I don't GAF if an OL is "willing to mix it up" and has a nasty demeanor. I care if he can win in the trenches consistently while avoiding dumb penalties.

Exactly. The same people who say he's a huge bust and lacks instincts and will be laughed at if he exhibits the same level of play elsewhere, are saying we should trade him for a 2nd or 3rd round pick or trade him for a "more dominant and developed" MLB. News flash, huge busts who lack instincts don't get traded for high draft picks or good players. They get traded for jelly donuts and bags of socks.

I think from various things McDermott has said, they in fact want more "splash plays" or difference-making plays out of Edmunds. But they clearly do regard him as important or they wouldn't have picked up his fully guaranteed 5th year option. And again there's that question I keep asking: what was different Edmunds rookie year that resulted in him having almost twice the "splash plays" (interceptions, passes defensed, forced fumbles, sacks, tackles for loss) that he did last year? There's a subtext through all these discussions, that McDermott and Beane, despite taking the Bills to a winning record and to playoffs 4 of the last 5 years and having a top-10 defense on points 2 of those 5 years, are actually all kinds of football dumb. They, unlike the bright lights here on TBD, are unable to perceive or unwilling to admit that Edmunds is a "bust", or are stubbornly playing Edmunds out of position where he should really be a DE or an OLB, or that they should trade him for whatever draft pick they can get and replace him with a $5-6k/yr (or maybe $9k/yr) free agent.

Would you mind telling us what these stats for other MLB (who are not, in their scheme, asked to blitz very often) ? Since you know that MLBs around the league generally result in big plays and impressive stats in these categories, shouldn't be hard. Here's a list of top-10 MLB around the league in 2020 which might help https://www.fanrankings.com/nfl/articles/top-10-middle-linebackers-in-nfl-2021-rankings I looked up 2021 stats for Int, PD, FF, SK, and TFL on a couple LB on that list: Bobby Wagner 11 (add QB hits 14) Fred Warner 12.5 (add QB hits 15.5) Devin White 15.5 Lavonte David 13 I think these data might imply that around the league Also point out that in 2018, Tre Edmunds stats for these were 23, which would put him up with Eric Kendricks (who had 19 last year), whom PFF grades as the best I asked elsewhere in this thread, of others, I'll ask again: what was different in 2018 that gave Tre Better stats? Because I think most people would say he's a better player overall now than he was as a rookie.

No. I don't think Josh needs a "buddy" on the bench. Josh has that knack of making friends with everyone. He does need someone who can point stuff out in the room and on the bench and be heard. There will always be that "I was drafted ahead of you, 3rd overall, I was a Big Star at USC and played on the Big Stage" dynamic between them. However good-natured they are, make no mistake, these are guys with Big Egos. The Bills need someone who can play at a good level if needed - say Josh is out for 4 games, we need someone who can win 2 of them. Trubisky in Chicago 64% completions, 208 ypg, 64 TD to 37 INTs, 6.7 YPA, 6.6% sack. These are numbers good enough to win more often than not when supported with defense and with a good run game, and in fact Chicago won 29-21 games with Trubisky at the helm. Darnold with the Jets and Panthers 59.8% completions, 212 ypg, 54 TD to 52 INTs, 6.5 YPA, 7.6% sacks. These are not numbers good enough to win more often than not, and in fact the Jets and Panthers won 17-32 games with Darnold at the helm. The biggest problem there is the INTs. It's hard to win when the QB gifts the ball to the other team. KC showed that in the AFCCG. I don't think the Panthers are going to cut Darnold. Why would they? They owe him $18.9M fully guaranteed if they cut him, or if they don't. The Giants actually had a reasonable offense under McAdoo as OC, so why wouldn't they see if McAdoo can get them something for their $$ (unless some team wants to trade him, under a 'Panthers keep part of his salary' deal)

I would put it they feel a lot better about Edmunds play, or they wouldn’t have picked up his fully guaranteed $12m option

How on earth did you get that from what I wrote? What I'm saying is "if Edmunds is absolutely a bust, and at best a servicable linebacker, why on earth would any other team trade him for a "more dominant and developed linebacker"? If he's a bust, we'd be trading him for a low pick and needing to trade high value resources for a "more dominant and developed" LB." Edmunds has $12M of fully guaranteed salary for next year. If you think he's a bust, why on earth would another team take that on, even if all they give us in return is a bag of peanuts? Again, LOL. You think he's a bust, so other teams will line up to take on his $12M salary AND give us a 2nd or 3rd round pick, on a 1 year rental.

Yeah, except that agree with them or don't, the Cover1 crew do actually know something about football and their target audience is typically fans who want to know more about the X's and O's and strategy behind the game I doubt Walter could explain the difference between Palms Cover 2 and Tampa 2 etc

So you find Walter Football to have merit and validity, and also find a post "spot on" where someone suggests "Edmunds is absolutely a bust. He could surely be a serviceable LB somewhere in the league but that's it. He's not worth more than $6-8 million a year with his current performance. I'd prefer the Bills trade him for a more dominant and developed MLB instead of drafting another prospect." SMDH. Look, if Edmunds is absolutely a bust, and at best a servicable linebacker, why on earth would any other team trade him for a "more dominant and developed linebacker"? If he's a bust, we'd be trading him for a low pick and needing to trade high value resources for a "more dominant and developed" LB. Truthfully, this provides a calibration standard for your opinions (and explains why you find WF a knowledgeable, credible site.) Click on the "posted xx time ago" text at the top l of the post. That will generate a link you can then paste into your post. HTH

Can I answer "Yes"? Walterfootball is the project of a high school, then PSU journalism student Walter Cherepinsky. He's managed to monetize his site and hire employees and make a living talking football on podcasts and running a football site, so Good for Him!, Seriously! But he's never played football, or coached football, or even put mental muscle into learning about the details of football. He hasn't had time, he's too busy generating content! His site became popular because he spent a lot of time (and I believe still spends a lot of time) on search engine optimization and learning how to generate the most clicks! His goal is still to bring the most traffic to his site, by SEO and by putting up content that will generate more clicks. So "yes", he did it for click bait AND they really do not - "know anything" might be harsh, but they don't seem to know much. I don't think he does 😁

Typical. You're asked a broad question and you fixate on one small bit and throw a Drama Llama hissy fit about it. You have, in the past, in fact criticized Harry - you've said he was a good tackler at Stanford and has not shown that ability in the Pros, he's undersized and gets injured because of it etc. Butler too - that the Bills hoped he'd become their big 1TDT and those hopes were mistaken etc. I'm not motivated to go find all that stuff, so if it helps you actually focus on the broader issue raised, I'll concede the point. I was not talking about just last season, however. Now let's reprise: From the way you consistently criticize Lotulelei and Butler and Harry etc Isn't that what YOU think - that the Bills DT are a liability, that they don't close gaps and at best, they occupy two blockers but don't move them around and make tackles? And if that's correct, then wouldn't that be expected to impact LB play? How do you account for Edmunds having his best statistical year in 2018 with Kyle Williams and Lotulelei ahead of him and a side order of Phillipses? You gonna respond with some actual football talk or throw a hissy again? Would you argue that the Bills DL in general and their DTs in particular last season "met expectations" and provided a good ROI?

Question: if "huge bust" or "bust" describes a player who has started consistently in an important role on a defense that's statistically good, but was drafted 16th overall and is not a star, how do you describe other players who were drafted in the 1st round and have not done as much? Darron Lee Charles Harris etc How do you describe other players who were drafted high in the first round and have started, but perhaps not been all that was hoped for contributions? Devin Bush Rashan Gary etc I think people get laser-focused on how our guys do or don't measure up to our expectations and lose perspective on how they compare to other players drafted in similar slots. Not everyone who is drafted in the middle of the first round or above becomes a star. I also think the term "bust" gets tossed around pretty freely to mean "any guy I wouldn't have drafted there" or "any guy who isn't producing the stats I think he should produce" vs. its original use, which was IMO to describe a guy who just couldn't play. I believe that's sarcasm and yet From the way you consistently criticize Lotulelei and Butler and Harry etc Isn't that what YOU think - that the Bills DT are a liability, that they don't close gaps and at best, they occupy two blockers but don't move them around and make tackles? And if that's correct, then wouldn't that be expected to impact LB play? How do you account for Edmunds having his best statistical year in 2018 with Kyle Williams and Lotulelei ahead of him and a side order of Phillipses?

Yeah, I think this is a good take. He can play, but I don't think he's someone opposing OCs fear, and scheme around. He gets his hands on a lot of passes, but he doesn't "seal the deal" with picks. He makes tackles in the run game, but he doesn't seem to be regarded as a punisher. I do think it's interesting that statistically, Edmunds best year was actually his rookie season, playing with Kyle Williams and a younger Star Lotulelei ahead of him and Zo Alexander next to him at times.

I know nothing about Nakobe Dean "Walter Football" has historically been the creation of a high school (then college) dude named Walter Cherepinsky who likes football and has managed to turn it into a living. Good for him, but think Cover1 (or some of the guys here) without the actual football knowledge. And sheesh! For a website someone is trying to make a living from, the formatting is abhominable. I'd be surprised if 1) McDermott and Beane are happy with where Edmunds is as their MLB 2) McDermott and Beane regard him as a "huge bust" Huge bust, to me, is when you get a guy who just can't play. Aaron Maybin was a huge bust. John McCargo was a huge bust. Darron Lee is a huge bust. Edmunds can play football, they were just hoping for Luke Kuechly - a star - or maybe Lavonte David. And that's not seeming likely.

Details still not known but here's the link https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/siran-neal-25255/

It’s been said, I promise. Mostly around when he was a FA last year

No way, he sucks --- I read it here

Linkies? The only people who would know for sure would be anyone who was in the room or on the call with the GM and Rodgers when it was said And even there - was it explicitly said, or was it assumed from context and then taken forward as what was said? Like maybe Rodgers said "if I return and play for GB this season, I want you to give me your word you will trade me in the 2022 off season" And Gutekunst replied "I promise you that if you still want out after this season, we will sit down together and work it out" It gives the impression Gutekunst agreed to trade Rodgers, but actually, in the above example, he didn't exactly say that. But he's allowing the impression that he agreed, to stand with the people who heard what he said. Sort of like what Rodgers said to the press about......